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October 13, 2019, 07:53:13 pm
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  Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #175 on: April 21, 2019, 01:06:31 pm »

Also, here's how my precinct looks like. This is particularly interesting as I live in the same town as Velasco Tongue (albeit in very different places it seems)

PP 39%
UP 23%
Cs 18%
PSOE 16%
CC 1%

With weird polarized politics like that it's got to be an middle-upper class suburb or neighborhood of Madrid.

Well, with CC being an option and being in the same town as Velasco, it can't be Madrid Tongue

It is indeed a middle or upper-middle class suburb though. Also one of the more ex-urban kinds of suburb, not close at all to the city center.
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Velasco
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« Reply #176 on: April 21, 2019, 02:06:21 pm »

Also, here's how my precinct looks like. This is particularly interesting as I live in the same town as Velasco Tongue (albeit in very different places it seems)

PP 39%
UP 23%
Cs 18%
PSOE 16%
CC 1%

With weird polarized politics like that it's got to be an middle-upper class suburb or neighborhood of Madrid.

Well, with CC being an option and being in the same town as Velasco, it can't be Madrid Tongue

It is indeed a middle or upper-middle class suburb though. Also one of the more ex-urban kinds of suburb, not close at all to the city center.

CC got approximately the same votes as PACMA in LPGC Grin. The neighbourhood where I have my 'official' residence (I am registered there, but that doesn't imply I live there all the time) is working class with some middle class patches and is urban. Other places in town where I lived when I was a child are more PP leaning, though. Particularly in the precinct where is located the clinic where I was born and what was my grandparents' house the PP got more than 50% of the vote.
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« Reply #177 on: April 21, 2019, 04:15:32 pm »

I believe that Malasaña is the best neighborhood in the whole world. Good to know how people vote there, although it seemed obvious when I stayed there. I remember that the first flag I saw was a republican one.

On a side note, I know Vallecas has a left-wing reputation, but is amazing the numbers from the neighborhood, you have the two parties from the left of center performing well there. One precinct has UP over 50% and PSOE over 20%. Nevertheless, Salamanca offsets those results haha.

Also, the results from Salamanca and Valladolid are very interesting (from my point of view). Those cities are known for being very right wing, but the PP performed really well in the respective downtowns. It should be interesting to see how this would move on sunday (I think Cs and Vox could perform well there).
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« Reply #178 on: April 21, 2019, 04:28:18 pm »

Also, here's how my precinct looks like. This is particularly interesting as I live in the same town as Velasco Tongue (albeit in very different places it seems)

PP 39%
UP 23%
Cs 18%
PSOE 16%
CC 1%

With weird polarized politics like that it's got to be an middle-upper class suburb or neighborhood of Madrid.

Well, with CC being an option and being in the same town as Velasco, it can't be Madrid Tongue

It is indeed a middle or upper-middle class suburb though. Also one of the more ex-urban kinds of suburb, not close at all to the city center.

CC got approximately the same votes as PACMA in LPGC Grin. The neighbourhood where I have my 'official' residence (I am registered there, but that doesn't imply I live there all the time) is working class with some middle class patches and is urban. Other places in town where I lived when I was a child are more PP leaning, though. Particularly in the precinct where is located the clinic where I was born and what was my grandparents' house the PP got more than 50% of the vote.

How are CC numbers in regional/municipal elections in LPGC??? Probably better than those numbers from the general election but I don't think much better.

Other question, how people see NCa vs CC?
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Velasco
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« Reply #179 on: April 21, 2019, 06:24:31 pm »
« Edited: April 21, 2019, 07:00:51 pm by Velasco »

How are CC numbers in regional/municipal elections in LPGC??? Probably better than those numbers from the general election but I don't think much better.

Other question, how people see NCa vs CC?

The numbers are bad. LPGC is the most populous city in the Canary Islands and the CC's black hole. NC has better numbers, obviously. However NC has been always comparatively weaker in the capital, while it's stronger in the rest of the Gran Canaria island. Particularly the NC's historical strongholds are located in the GC1 corridor, a major road that runs through the east coast connecting the capital with the tourist resorts in the south (Maspalaomas-Playa del Inglés).

2015 regionalist vote in LPGC (local, regional and insular):

- In the local elections NC got 7.5% of the vote winning 2 councilors
CC got 3.2% of the vote failing to reach the 5% threshold to win councilors

- In the regional elections NC got 9.3% of the vote (18.4% in the Gran Canaria constituency) and CC got 3.6% (6.2% in Gran Canaria)

- Similarly in the elections for the Cabildo (insular government) NC performed worse in the capital (17% in LPGC and 26.5% in Gran Canaria), while the CC Numbers were uniform (5.4% in the capital and 5.6% overall).

NC came first in the elections for the Cabildo mostly due to the popularity of its candidate Antonio Morales, who got better results than party leader Román Rodríguez in regional elections. I voted for Morales, despite I'm not a big fan of his party. I backed him because he was the most viable candidate to defeat PP, as well he's decent and more palatable to me than the former CC premier Román Rodríguez (1999-2003).  

The rivalry between CC and NC is basically related to the pleito insular, that it's to say the rivalry between the two most populous islands: Tenerife and Gran Canaria. CC has been historically dominated by a party of Tenerife "independents" (mostly coming from UCD) called ATI*, which was the main component of a preexisting federation of insular parties. NC is a split of CC whose origin is the dispute for power between ATI and the Gran Canaria branch led by Román Rodríguez, who sought for another term as premier. I think there was some implicit agreement on rotating premiers from TF and GC that ATI wanted to break in order to place its candidate Paulino Rivero (2007-2015). The origins of the NC members are different from those of ATI, as many of them came from leftwing regionalist parties like Asamblea Canaria (AC-INC) or Unión del Pueblo Canario (UPC). Even former PCE members joined CC back in the day... However the ideology and principles of some leftist elements melted into the CC's big tent. Currently NC governs the Cabildo (in coalition with PSOE and 2 councilors formerly in Podemos), several GC municipalities and is part of the local government of LPGC (PSOE-Podemos-NC).

*The Tenerife Group of Independents (ATI) is ideologically right of the centre and has been the dominant political force in the island for many years at local, insular and regional levels. All the past and present CC premiers are from ATI, except Román Rodríguez.    
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« Reply #180 on: April 22, 2019, 04:46:26 pm »

Good showing from Rivera, it seems. Pablo Iglesias not bad, Sanchéz average and total car crash for Pablo Casado.
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Velasco
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« Reply #181 on: April 22, 2019, 06:18:56 pm »
« Edited: April 22, 2019, 06:47:31 pm by Velasco »

Good showing from Rivera, it seems. Pablo Iglesias not bad, Sanchéz average and total car crash for Pablo Casado.

I couldn't see the whole debate, but there's another tomorrow night. A panel of 8 experts in El País gives the following verdict: Iglesias 4, Rivera 3, Sánchez 1, Casado 0.
 
https://elpais.com/politica/2019/04/22/actualidad/1555942966_982643.html


Iglesias resembled too much former IU leader Julio Anguita with his constant invocations to the constitution, but on the other hand it's a good way to counterattack the aggresive 'constitutionalism' of the right claiming that PSOE and Podemos are 'unconstitutional'. Both Iglesias and Rivera are good in TV debates, while Sánchez is average at best. Casado has experience in talk shows, but the experts consider that he crashed tonight.
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« Reply #182 on: April 22, 2019, 08:21:50 pm »

I gather the leader of Vox was not in the debate?
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Sentor MAINEiac4434 of Lincoln
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« Reply #183 on: April 22, 2019, 08:34:02 pm »

I gather the leader of Vox was not in the debate?
IIRC Spanish debates are limited to parties that got a certain percentage of the vote in the previous election.
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #184 on: April 23, 2019, 02:53:19 am »

I gather the leader of Vox was not in the debate?
IIRC Spanish debates are limited to parties that got a certain percentage of the vote in the previous election.

Indeed. Sánchez wanted to invite Vox, but election authorities ruled that it was not legal to invite them.

I think the criteria used by the election authorities was that only parties above 5% at a recient national election would get the right to take part in the debate.

In 2015 they could get around this for Podemos and Cs with a loophole, as Podemos got 8% in the 2014 European election and Cs got 6.5% nationwide in the local elections.

No such luck this time for Vox though, as their only election was the Andalucia regional one, but that was a regional, not national election.
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« Reply #185 on: April 23, 2019, 10:32:37 am »

Is that actually a bad thing for Vox though? Would they actually quite like the mantle of “outsider” going into these elections?
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Velasco
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« Reply #186 on: April 23, 2019, 11:18:31 am »

Is that actually a bad thing for Vox though? Would they actually quite like the mantle of “outsider” going into these elections?

Not really. Many people think that it's better for Vox being outside in order to take the role of victim.  Additionally Vox leader Santiago Abascal lacks experience in debates,  as well as an dialectical tools or an elaborate discourse. While the four leaders debate again tonight Vox will organize a big campaing act in Las Rozas, an affluent PP stronghold near Madrid. They have their own agenda and are running a parallel campaign strongly focused on social networks. Abascal is making very few public appearances. Bolsonaro style.
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #187 on: April 23, 2019, 11:35:35 am »

Is that actually a bad thing for Vox though? Would they actually quite like the mantle of “outsider” going into these elections?

Not really. Many people think that it's better for Vox being outside in order to take the role of victim.  Additionally Vox leader Santiago Abascal lacks experience in debates,  as well as an dialectical tools or an elaborate discourse. While the four leaders debate again tonight Vox will organize a big campaing act in Las Rozas, an affluent PP stronghold near Madrid. They have their own agenda and are running a parallel campaign strongly focused on social networks. Abascal is making very few public appearances. Bolsonaro style.

To be fair Bolsonaro did have a very big reason not to do public appearances.

As for Vox, they don't seem to me likme they are doing any less rallies than the other parties. Plus their ralies have huge attendance numbers apparently.

I believe if there's one party polls are underpolling, it has to be Vox. I certainly don't believe the polls giving them around 8%; they are clearly in double digits.
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coloniac
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« Reply #188 on: April 23, 2019, 12:05:56 pm »
« Edited: April 23, 2019, 12:09:54 pm by coloniac »

How can people seriously rate Rivera in debate performances. He came across as so overdramatic and rushed at the same time. His final speech basically akin to the kind of speech a sh**tty football coach gives to his team. Arrimadas was infinitely better in the debate previous to this one with the small parties. She is like an anaconda on any slip up her oponent lets on.  

In general the tone of the debates reflects the campaign though : lamentable.
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Velasco
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« Reply #189 on: April 23, 2019, 12:13:06 pm »

Abascal speaks at campaign rallies,  but he's much more elusive than other candidates and only talks to friendly media. Btw, Vox spokepersons are stating their intent to lock down not only public TV channels (including the golpista TV3, of course) but unfriendly private channels too...
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Velasco
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« Reply #190 on: April 23, 2019, 12:18:02 pm »

How can people seriously rate Rivera in debate performances. He came across as so overdramatic and rushed at the same time. His final speech basically akin to the kind of speech a sh**tty football coach gives to his team. Arrimadas was infinitely better in the debate previous to this one with the small parties. She is like an anaconda on any slip up her oponent lets on.  

In general the tone of the debates reflects the campaign though : lamentable.

I dislike Rivera too, but he clearly managed to gain ground to Casado appealing to the same audience target. The football coach call works with some voters, sadly.
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Velasco
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« Reply #191 on: April 23, 2019, 04:42:51 pm »

The final debate is being tough with Pablo Casado and Albert Rivera attacking Pedro Sánchez,  in open competition for the leadership of the Right. Many interruptions and too much finger-pointing. The fact check in media reveals the three told lies or inaccuracies. The only one who keeps a correct tone is Pablo Iglesias, and I'm not member of his fan club. In my ipinion the Podemos leader is the clear winner of the night...
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« Reply #192 on: April 24, 2019, 07:05:20 am »
« Edited: April 24, 2019, 07:24:10 am by Velasco »

Last night's debate was marked by its harsh tone, the fight between Casado and Rivera for the leadership in the right and a clear divide between blocs with Pedro Sánchez saying a deal with Cs is not in his plans. Pablo Iglesias separated himself from the others, surprising many with his serene and propositive approach. Certainly his expectations are lower than three years ago, but this version of the Podemos leader is more likeable than the arrogant prick he was before. The Podemos leader is undoubtedly smart and once again he showed up as a good communicator. On the other hand, Casado recovered ground to an overacting and histrionic Rivera. Pedro Sánchez survived and sometimes it seemed he showed a half smile while his rivals in the right fought each other. Sánchez clashed with Rivera, partly because the Cs leader was annoying and partly to diminish Casado's protagonism. Iglesias came occasionally to defend Sánchez, assuming the role of guardian of the leftist essences and loyal collaborator. The sync beetween the candidates left of the centre was much better than that of the right.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/24/inenglish/1556088918_583955.html

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“Divide and conquer” has been a classic combat strategy since the days of Julius Caesar. In Spain, the war over who gets to lead the political right played out openly on Tuesday night, during the second televised candidate debate ahead of the general election on Sunday.

The constant clashes between Pablo Casado and Albert Rivera, the leaders of the Popular Party (PP) and Ciudadanos (Citizens), meant that the prime minister, Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE), was largely spared the onslaught that he had been expecting (...)

One of the highlights was the exchange of poisoned gifts between Rivera and Sánchez. Many people think their rivalry enters personal grounds and it seems obvious they loathe each other. After this debate the possibility of a PSOE-Cs agreement looks more unlikely than ever...

Quote
Sánchez and Rivera also had personal messages for one another, backed up by props they brought to the set of the state broadcaster TVE. The Ciudadanos candidate pulled out a copy of Sánchez’s doctoral thesis, alluding to a scandal over alleged plagiarism by the PM, and said: “Since today is Saint George’s Day [observed in Catalonia by exchanging gifts of books and roses], I’m going to give you a book you haven’t read, your own fake thesis.”

Sánchez was ready for this: he also produced a book, written by Vox leader Santiago Abascal and featuring a Spanish flag on the cover, “so you can see what you allies say.” Sánchez had been hoping to have Abascal at the debates in order to better illustrate his campaign message about “the three rights” that could govern Spain.

The tone reached such a low point that Iglesias, who remained in the zen mode he has adopted throughout the campaign, made a desperate plea: “I am feeling very embarrassed about the way this debate is going.”

Enric Juliana's assessment in La Vanguardia

Pedro Sánchez. More energetic and tighter than previous day. He repeatedly sought hand-to-hand combat with Rivera. He showed a letter suggesting the creation of blacklists in the Justice department of the Andalusian regional government managed by Cs with devastating effect. He broke with Cs and accused oranges of complicity with the far right.

Pablo Casado. He sought to get back on his feet and at times he managed to do so. His tone in the debate was more moderate than in campaign (but he showed up more combative than previous day), Visibly upset with Rivera.

Albert Rivera. This time he couldn't lead the way with the deal of brio he showed on Monday. Sánchez and Casado blocked him. He went too fast (overacting) and got lost with his constant interruptions to rivals.

Pablo Iglesias. Professoral, attenuated, controlled, constitutional, asking moderation to the other candidates. He was the most solid speaker and there will be consensus on proclaiming him the winner of the second debate. An unseen version of Iglesias defending Podemos as a party of government.
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coloniac
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« Reply #193 on: April 24, 2019, 09:05:10 am »

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MINUTO-POLITICO-Recta-campana-decidir_13_892190773_26522.html

A leading candidate for the Madrid Community says the governance of the city centre in relation to reducing car emissions is all wrong because traffic jams when you go out to dinner are part of the city's heritage.

I am really starting to think the Spanish Right is the dumbest Right in Western Europe.
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Velasco
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« Reply #194 on: April 24, 2019, 12:05:16 pm »

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MINUTO-POLITICO-Recta-campana-decidir_13_892190773_26522.html

A leading candidate for the Madrid Community says the governance of the city centre in relation to reducing car emissions is all wrong because traffic jams when you go out to dinner are part of the city's heritage.

I am really starting to think the Spanish Right is the dumbest Right in Western Europe.

Isabel Diaz Ayuso stands out as one of the dumbest PP candidates promoted by Casado. Maybe she's not the worst. Recently the PP candidate for Huelva in general elections said that Pedro Sánchez "seats at the table with violators and pedophiles". The daughter of Juan José Cortés was killed by one of those criminals and that's a tragedy, but the man does not have a skill level to run in elections. One of the 'new' Casado candidates is articulate and smart, case of Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo, but she's too radical and confrontational and has been placed in Barcelona to set fire to the flames with very bad prospects of electoral success. I think that Casado's PP is making the Vox campaign and most of the new set of candidates is mediocre. Sometimes is I miss the Rajoy's boring predictability.
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Velasco
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« Reply #195 on: April 24, 2019, 05:58:39 pm »

What a coincidence, shortly after the brilliant statements of the PP regional candidate in Madrid, Cs hires former Madrid premier Ängel Garrido to run in the regional list. Garrido replaced Cristina Cifuentes after her resignation over the master degree scandal and is a close friend of hers. The new orange team draftee sought to run as the PP's candidate for premiership, but Pablo Casado replaced him and appointed Isabel Díaz Ayuso. According to El País, Garrido decided to take revenge at Easter because his team of collaborators was relegated in the regional lists. Garrido had previously accepted to run in the 4th position of the PP list for the EP elections.

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2019/04/24/madrid/1556131657_186311.html
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Velasco
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« Reply #196 on: April 25, 2019, 10:02:41 am »

Facebook takes down far-right groups days before Spanish election

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/25/facebook-takes-down-far-right-groups-days-before-spanish-election

Quote
Facebook has taken down several networks that were spreading far-right content to nearly 1.7 million people in Spain, days before national elections that are expected to see a surge in support for the far-right Vox party.

The networks were uncovered in an investigation by the campaign group Avaaz, and taken down only after it presented Facebook with its findings.

The discovery of a large network, spreading politically sensitive content unmonitored days before a key European election, is likely to add to concerns about social media firms’ willingness and ability to control hate speech and criminal activity on their sites (...)

he largest network – Unidad Nacional Española (UNE) – had more than 1.2 million followers, and others reached hundreds of thousands more. Together they had more than 7 million interactions, at a time of intense political activity and focus on the political rise of the upstart far-right party Vox.

Pierre Moscovici: "We need a pro-European, proactive government in Spain"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/25/inenglish/1556176223_194937.html

Quote
With little more than 72 hours to go before Spain holds a snap general election, the EU Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Pierre Moscovici, gave an interview in which he piled praise on the Spanish economy and played down the the signs of instability and political fragmentation, with one exception: the emergence of a far-right force, Vox.

“That paves the way for dangerous alliances,” laments the socialist politician, who has been on the frontline of European politics for a quarter of a century. “Far-right parties are a danger to European democracy.” Still, Moscovici feels that Spain has a large enough central bloc to prevent an Italian-style drift towards populist politics.
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« Reply #197 on: April 25, 2019, 06:41:52 pm »

Is Electomania seriously getting around the polling ban by pretending to be talking about emojis?
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Velasco
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« Reply #198 on: April 25, 2019, 08:49:36 pm »

Is Electomania seriously getting around the polling ban by pretending to be talking about emojis?

The "Andorra fruit market" in previous elections was better. It was referring to the polls released by a paper from Andorra during the ban. I'm afraid the "emojipanel" is only a version of the "electopanel" and the latter is a fake poll. Our electoral law is more absurd than ever...
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« Reply #199 on: April 25, 2019, 09:14:08 pm »



Not sure if I'm the only one who's asked this, but... is there something resembling a possibility that shy Vox voters actually make it the largest party on the Right?
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