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  Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)  (Read 50009 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #200 on: April 25, 2019, 09:39:22 pm »



Not sure if I'm the only one who's asked this, but... is there something resembling a possibility that shy Vox voters actually make it the largest party on the Right?


I mean Vox voters have been anything but shy,Vox surged following Andalusia in part because people now felt that they were a legitimate party. If there is another Vox surge its because polls fail to account for turnout (once again see Andalusia) or there is something going on post-debates that the polls cannot capture because of the ban.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #201 on: April 26, 2019, 02:00:15 am »



Not sure if I'm the only one who's asked this, but... is there something resembling a possibility that shy Vox voters actually make it the largest party on the Right?


What are PSOE and Podemos at in the screenshot?
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Umengus
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« Reply #202 on: April 26, 2019, 03:51:43 am »



Not sure if I'm the only one who's asked this, but... is there something resembling a possibility that shy Vox voters actually make it the largest party on the Right?


I will not be suprised if Vox has 15%+ but to be first will be difficult. But not impossible.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #203 on: April 26, 2019, 04:18:26 am »



Not sure if I'm the only one who's asked this, but... is there something resembling a possibility that shy Vox voters actually make it the largest party on the Right?

it would require some pretty serious sampling errors to have been made by pretty much all of the posters. Far more than any sort of "shy" effect could seriously justify.
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Skye
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« Reply #204 on: April 26, 2019, 04:36:02 am »

This is an extraordinary map of the 2016 results by precinct or census section

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/04/17/actualidad/1555522788_557334.html

Results in my precict were UP 33%, PP 28%, PSOE 23%, Cs 11%


Thank you so much for this!

Mi precinct looked like this:

PP 33
PSOE 32
UP 25
C's 11

It seems mine is the only blue precinct of the small barrio where I live. PSOE won the rest, even though the rest of the city is painted in blue.
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
tack50
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« Reply #205 on: April 26, 2019, 06:21:40 am »

Is Electomania seriously getting around the polling ban by pretending to be talking about emojis?

Yes they are. Not quite the old "Andorra fruit market", but better than nothing. One of the more absurd things about Spanish election law.

And as Velasco said, the Electopanel is not a proper poll, but more like an online panel.

It's better than nothing, and they did perform remarkably well in the Andalusian election, but it's not a proper poll. In other words, we have absolutely no clues about what is going to happen.

As for Vox coming in first for the right, it's very unlikely. An scenario like 2015 but on the right is more likely though (Vox coming third and remarkably close to PP; like 1-2 points behind just like UP in 2015 came within 1.5% of PSOE)

There certainly can be a polling error that puts Vox way up ahead, but not sure if even that would be enough to put them in first.
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
tack50
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« Reply #206 on: April 26, 2019, 06:43:53 am »

Also, just realized I haven't posted any campaign posters/Slogans. So since today is the last campaign day, here you go!

PSOE: Make it happen / The Spain you want



PP: Safe value



Cs: Let's go Ciudadanos



UP: History is written by you



Vox: For Spain



PACMA: Join the Re-evolution




Regional parties. Posting only links in order not to make this too large.

ERC: It's about freedom
https://www.segre.com/uploads/imagenes/bajacalidad/2019/04/14/_41768210_ba719594.jpg?d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e

JxCat: You are our voice, you are our strength
https://www.segre.com/uploads/imagenes/bajacalidad/2019/04/14/_41768211_71765438.jpg?d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e

PNV: The Basque Country moves us, zurea gurea (no idea what that means)
https://www.eaj-pnv.eus/img/ho19/eaj-facebook-orokorrak19.jpg

Bildu: To advance
(Can't find an actual campaign poster, so here's a random rally)
https://static.deia.eus/images/2019/04/18/acto-electoral-de-eh-18931073_31851_11.jpg

CC: Fighting for the Canaries
http://ccfuerteventura.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/pegada-carteles-4.jpg

Compromís: Unstoppable
https://www.elperiodic.com/archivos/imagenes/noticias/2019/03/27/baldo-imparables-28a.jpeg

BNG: Galicia now
https://www.adiantegalicia.es/upload/images/carteles-bng.jpg

NCa: To defend the Canaries / Canaries with a future
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Qa_I0_4zipc/XK_O7pfMO9I/AAAAAAABFAs/amjHtcIfNqksQwQ-KJSL9VCVaEI9-z1lQCLcBGAs/s1600/Nueva%2BCanarias%2Barranc%25C3%25B3%2Bsu%2Bcampa%25C3%25B1a%2Belectoral%2B%2Bdel%2B28-A%2Ben%2Bla%2Bmedianoche%2Bdel%2Bjueves%2Bcon%2Bla%2Btradicional%2Bpegada%2Bde%2Bcarteles%2B2.jpg

PRC: Cantabria wins
https://www.publico.es/tremending/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/revilla-1132x670.jpg

(yes, that's a meme, couldn't find a proper pic but the poster itself is unaltered)

FR: We are a wall: Republic / Vote a breakdown, vote republic
https://www.rac1.cat/r/GODO/R1/p0/WebSite/Imagenes/2019/04/12/img_20190412-143245_muntat_front_repub-kPQH--1084x766@RAC1-Web.jpg

These are all the regional parties with a chance at a seat.
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Velasco
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« Reply #207 on: April 26, 2019, 10:20:41 am »
« Edited: April 26, 2019, 11:19:35 am by Velasco »

Not sure if I'm the only one who's asked this, but... is there something resembling a possibility that shy Vox voters actually make it the largest party on the Right?

It's nearly impossible that Vox becomes the largest party in the right. However, from what I've been collecting and without polling evidence, there could be a Vox surge in the last minute pushing the far right to 15% and not far from the third place (in competition with Cs and UP). Right now the WhatsApp groups must be coming from the wound with fake news and propaganda. In case this surge happens, it'd be at the expense of PP and Cs but also on the mobilization of angered voters who don't believe in politics anymore (thus support antipolitics). PP's campaign staff assumes the loses will be big but the conservatives would call victory if a Vox surge brings them back to power. Some people feel the PSOE's progression halted and now socialists are below the 30% mark. UP might have recovered some ground thanks to the revelations on the dirty war against the purples during the Rajoy administration and the good performance of Pablo Iglesias in the TV debates.

I'm not making a prediction and I hope the Franco's comeback won't happen, but I'm crossing fingers and preparing myself for the most dangerous possibility. Just in case. Also, take into account the election of Donald Trump in 2016 was something like the accession to the throne of Caligula and his horse. This created a bandwagon effect in the rest of the wold (Bolsonaro, Salvini, etcetera).

In the news, Casado considers the possibility of including Vox in government in case of rightwing majority.

Pedro Sánchez: "There is a real risk that the right could join with the far right"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/26/inenglish/1556261539_359058.html

Quote
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE) is heading toward what might be his first election win after being defeated twice at the polls, ousted by his own party, and then returning victorious in party primaries and leading a successful vote of no confidence against Mariano Rajoy of the conservative Popular Party (PP).

Polls suggest Sánchez will win the highest number of seats in Congress at the general election this Sunday, April 28, but fall short of an absolute majority. Amid this uncertainty, the PSOE leader is hoping to mobilize the left to avoid a repetition of the election results in Andalusia, where the right-wing parties PP and Ciudadanos (Citizens) formed a government after an inconclusive election result thanks to the support of the far-right party Vox.

The following is an edited version of the original interview in Spanish (...)
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rob in cal
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« Reply #208 on: April 26, 2019, 10:50:20 am »

  Any sense of what  the combined seat total of PSOE plus UP would be for a viable Sanchez government?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #209 on: April 26, 2019, 11:24:49 am »
« Edited: April 26, 2019, 11:30:49 am by Oryxslayer »

 Any sense of what  the combined seat total of PSOE plus UP would be for a viable Sanchez government?

176?... The Catalans brought down this govt after all. The combined vote total doesn't need to be 50%+1 though, likely something around 43%.

Potential Govts:

1) Pure Left: PSOE+Podemos
2) Pure Right: PP+C's+Vox
3) Centrist, if nothing else works: PSOE+C's
4) The chaos from 2015/16 continues, and small parties are needed

Sanchez has been dealt the winning hand though, he just needs to play his cards right (And he has for a while now).
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Velasco
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« Reply #210 on: April 26, 2019, 11:41:50 am »

  Any sense of what  the combined seat total of PSOE plus UP would be for a viable Sanchez government?

The best result for the left would be a seat count that makes the support of catalan separatists unnecesary. Given that PNV will win around 6 seats and Compromis might win 3, I'd say more than 165. Below that mark ERC would become decisive for the conformation of majorities. Also, it'd be important the combined seats of PSOE, UP, PNV and Compromis exceed those of PP, Cs and Vox. In that case Pedro Sánchez could pass a second investiture vote with the abstention of the catalan separatists.  The more decisive are the latter, the more unstable and weak will be a leftwing government.
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
tack50
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« Reply #211 on: April 26, 2019, 12:04:38 pm »

  Any sense of what  the combined seat total of PSOE plus UP would be for a viable Sanchez government?

Most likely 167. Combined with an expected 6 for PNV and 3 for Compromis that would add up to 176.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #212 on: April 26, 2019, 12:05:13 pm »

I'm crossing fingers and preparing myself

Same. Going to shul now, on this special occasion I will be praying for Vox and the right 🙏🏻
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urutzizu
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« Reply #213 on: April 26, 2019, 12:35:13 pm »

I'm crossing fingers and preparing myself

Same. Going to shul now, on this special occasion I will be praying for Vox and the right 🙏🏻

 
Fernando Paz, who leads the VOX list in Albacete, who questioned the Holocaust and called the Nuremberg Trials a Farce, will be getting your special prayers undoubtably?

https://www.larazon.es/espana/los-judios-preocupados-por-las-declaraciones-del-candidato-de-vox-por-albacete-IE22510495
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
tack50
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« Reply #214 on: April 26, 2019, 02:07:08 pm »

I'm crossing fingers and preparing myself

Same. Going to shul now, on this special occasion I will be praying for Vox and the right 🙏🏻

 
Fernando Paz, who leads the VOX list in Albacete, who questioned the Holocaust and called the Nuremberg Trials a Farce, will be getting your special prayers undoubtably?

https://www.larazon.es/espana/los-judios-preocupados-por-las-declaraciones-del-candidato-de-vox-por-albacete-IE22510495

In Vox's defense (never thought I'd say that), they did eventually have to take him out of the list

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20190321/461160389167/fernando-paz-vox-albacete-renuncia-caceria-mediatica.html

They do have plenty of other "colourful" candidates, including 2 pro-Francoist former generals
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Velasco
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« Reply #215 on: April 26, 2019, 02:24:11 pm »
« Edited: April 26, 2019, 04:04:34 pm by Velasco »

I'm crossing fingers and preparing myself

Same. Going to shul now, on this special occasion I will be praying for Vox and the right 🙏🏻

 
Fernando Paz, who leads the VOX list in Albacete, who questioned the Holocaust and called the Nuremberg Trials a Farce, will be getting your special prayers undoubtably?

https://www.larazon.es/espana/los-judios-preocupados-por-las-declaraciones-del-candidato-de-vox-por-albacete-IE22510495

In Vox's defense (never thought I'd say that), they did eventually have to take him out of the list

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20190321/461160389167/fernando-paz-vox-albacete-renuncia-caceria-mediatica.html

They do have plenty of other "colourful" candidates, including 2 pro-Francoist former generals

I think that I said it before, but Vox didn't take him out based on moral scruples. Far from that, Vox asked him to 'resign' because an Holocaust negationist was not acceptable for the Vox's friends in the Alt-Right wing of the Republican Party (and by extension certain powerful donors linked to them, as well as the Israeli Right). Also, the Jewish community in Spain is small but it has good connections with the Spanish mainstream right and the business world. There was an obvious concern regarding possible coalition partners with candidates showing Nazi sympathies...
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
tack50
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« Reply #216 on: April 26, 2019, 05:00:51 pm »
« Edited: April 26, 2019, 06:35:08 pm by tack50 »

With the campaign coming to a close, here is my prediction

PSOE: 27% (110)
PP: 21% (79)
UP: 15,5% (50)
Cs: 15,5% (49)
Vox: 11% (32)
PACMA: 2% (1)

ERC: 3% (10)
JxCat: 1,5% (5)
PNV: 1,2% (6)
Compromís: 1,1% (3)
Bildu: 0,8% (3)
BNG: 0,5% (0)
FR: 0,4% (1)
CC: 0,3% (1)
PRC: 0,15% (0)
NCa: 0,15% (0)

By bloc:

Right: 47.5% (160)
Left: 42.5% (160)
PSOE-Cs: 42.5% (159)

End result: Big mess, new elections in October
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #217 on: April 26, 2019, 06:28:50 pm »

With the campaign coming to a close, here is my prediction

PSOE: 27% (110)
PP: 21% (79)
UP: 15,5% (50)
Cs: 15,5% (49)
Vox: 11% (32)
PACMA: 2% (1)

ERC: 3% (10)
JxCat: 1,5% (5)
PNV: 1,2% (6)
Compromís: 1,1% (3)
Bildu: 0,8% (3)
BNG: 0,5% (0)
FR: 0,4% (1)
CC: 0,3% (1)
PRC: 0,15% (0)
NCa: 0,15% (0)
NCa: 0,15% (0)

By bloc:

Right: 47.5% (160)
Left: 42.5% (160)
PSOE-Cs: 42.5% (159)

End result: Big mess, new elections in October

I take it you are expressing pessimism?
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
tack50
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« Reply #218 on: April 26, 2019, 06:37:48 pm »

With the campaign coming to a close, here is my prediction

PSOE: 27% (110)
PP: 21% (79)
UP: 15,5% (50)
Cs: 15,5% (49)
Vox: 11% (32)
PACMA: 2% (1)

ERC: 3% (10)
JxCat: 1,5% (5)
PNV: 1,2% (6)
Compromís: 1,1% (3)
Bildu: 0,8% (3)
BNG: 0,5% (0)
FR: 0,4% (1)
CC: 0,3% (1)
PRC: 0,15% (0)
NCa: 0,15% (0)
NCa: 0,15% (0)

By bloc:

Right: 47.5% (160)
Left: 42.5% (160)
PSOE-Cs: 42.5% (159)

End result: Big mess, new elections in October

I take it you are expressing pessimism?

Yeah, somewhat, particularly for PSOE; but my prediction isn't that pessimistic and could be worse (like say a PP-Cs-Vox majority)

In fact if you believe ERC would support Sánchez this result would actually give him a decent working majority of PSOE-UP-ERC-PNV, with no need for PDECat.

Plus the option of a "coalition of chaos" that excludes the Catalans (PSOE-UP-PNV-Bildu-Compromís-PACMA) would be at 173, only 2 seats short of a majority. Though that is still 2 seats short.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #219 on: April 26, 2019, 06:45:04 pm »
« Edited: April 26, 2019, 07:00:25 pm by Oryxslayer »

With the campaign coming to a close, here is my prediction

PSOE: 27% (110)
PP: 21% (79)
UP: 15,5% (50)
Cs: 15,5% (49)
Vox: 11% (32)
PACMA: 2% (1)

ERC: 3% (10)
JxCat: 1,5% (5)
PNV: 1,2% (6)
Compromís: 1,1% (3)
Bildu: 0,8% (3)
BNG: 0,5% (0)
FR: 0,4% (1)
CC: 0,3% (1)
PRC: 0,15% (0)
NCa: 0,15% (0)
NCa: 0,15% (0)

By bloc:

Right: 47.5% (160)
Left: 42.5% (160)
PSOE-Cs: 42.5% (159)

End result: Big mess, new elections in October

I take it you are expressing pessimism?

Yeah, somewhat, particularly for PSOE; but my prediction isn't that pessimistic and could be worse (like say a PP-Cs-Vox majority)

In fact if you believe ERC would support Sánchez this result would actually give him a decent working majority of PSOE-UP-ERC-PNV, with no need for PDECat.

Plus the option of a "coalition of chaos" that excludes the Catalans (PSOE-UP-PNV-Bildu-Compromís-PACMA) would be at 173, only 2 seats short of a majority. Though that is still 2 seats short.

I was thinking more in the vein of 'chaos.' Math, polls, and the MOE denitely seems to favor Spain getting a govt, rather then returning to 2015. But chaos is certainly a option.

For example, one situation we are discussing is a Vox surge. But such a surge (say 2-3%) likely pulls overwhelmingly from PP. Because of D'hodt, this likely causes the conservatives to lose seats overall thanks to the vote cut. PSOE from a govt. But if Vox pulls and surges based on turnout, and PP retains their vote, then theres a conservative govt as the left looses % overall.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #220 on: April 26, 2019, 06:58:46 pm »

Guess PSOE will win some more anti-right voters causing UP to lose some more. Also think Vox is being underpolled again. The right should hope turnout will remain low and left-wingers are lulled into sleep thinking the right won't reach a majority due to Sanchez' strong campaign, but the sheer gap between PSOE and PP means PSOE will get a really beneficial vote-seat ratio. I think the right will either win a razor-thin majority or will be extremely close to having one.

PSOE 28%, PP 19%, Cs 16%, Vox 14%, UP 10%.
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
tack50
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« Reply #221 on: April 26, 2019, 07:41:31 pm »

I personally believe chaos and no government is the most likely option. I am very pessimistic about ERC's chances of supporting Sánchez, and those are at least 11 seats that he desperately needs and won't get. Without the Catalans, Sánchez's chances of forming government drop drastically.

On the other hand, the right also seems unlikely to get a majority and unlike the left, they can't rely on any regional parties whatsoever (not even CC would support a Vox-backed government)

Of the 3 combinations, I think PSOE-Cs would be the most likely, but after Cs has rejected it so harshly, I doubt it's happening. Plus it's unclear if it would add up in the first place. This one can rely a bit more on regional allies, but not much more. CC would certainly support this, and so would PRC (if they get in), but that's 2 seats at most (and most likely just one). I thought PNV could support this, but after Cs' hardline campaign and extremely harsh critizism of the Basque economic arrangement, it isn't happening.

So overall, probably chaos, but it all depends on what ERC does.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #222 on: April 26, 2019, 07:45:22 pm »

I personally believe chaos and no government is the most likely option.

How long will it take before we get new elections then?
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Sen. tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #223 on: April 26, 2019, 07:50:22 pm »

I personally believe chaos and no government is the most likely option.

How long will it take before we get new elections then?

It's a fixed date from the day the confidence vote happens. My rough estimate would be a 2nd election some time after the summer, probably in autumn. Last time that happened the election was in December and the repeat election in June. So expect approximately 6 months between elections.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #224 on: April 27, 2019, 12:40:12 am »

VOX leader Santi Abascal reminds me of a Spanish version of Salvini in Italy, which means VOX should perform really well tomorrow.

My prediction therefore is as followed:

27.3% PSOE (+4.7%)
20.6% PP (-12.4%)
17.1% VOX (+16.9%)
14.2% Cs (+1.1%)
13.5% UP (-7.7%)
  7.3% Others

51.9% Right (+5.6%)
40.8% Left (-3.0%)

Turnout: 70.4% (+3.9%) - this is based on all eligible voters incl. Spanish voters abroad
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