Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 15, 2019, 11:17:32 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Socialist Mod Stands with ProudWhatsHisName)
  Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez: July 22-25)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 [10] 11 12 13 14 15 ... 32 Print
Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez: July 22-25)  (Read 32929 times)
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,360
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #225 on: April 27, 2019, 04:54:50 am »

VOX leader Santi Abascal reminds me of a Spanish version of Salvini in Italy, which means VOX should perform really well tomorrow.

I think Santiago Abascal has little in common with Matteo Salvini, leaving aside that both are far right demagogues and have a beard. One of the main differences between Vox and other far right parties like Lega in Italy is the lack of a charismatic link between the party leader and his voters. In the case of Spain the Vox trademark is stronger than Abascal.
Logged
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,048
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #226 on: April 27, 2019, 04:57:07 am »

VOX leader Santi Abascal reminds me of a Spanish version of Salvini in Italy, which means VOX should perform really well tomorrow.

I think Santiago Abascal has little in common with Matteo Salvini, leaving aside that both are far right demagogues and have a beard. One of the main differences between Vox and other far right parties like Lega in Italy is the lack of a charismatic link between the party leader and his voters. In the case of Spain the Vox trademark is stronger than Abascal.



Welp.
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,827
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: 6.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #227 on: April 27, 2019, 05:02:33 am »

Is that Vox slogan "España Viva" viewed as a dog whistle to the slogan in the Franco era (the one starting with "España una") or does it not have that connotation?
Logged
Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,744
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #228 on: April 27, 2019, 05:09:27 am »

The right is going to win the election.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,360
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #229 on: April 27, 2019, 05:12:58 am »

They belong to the same political family and it's obvious that Salvini supports Abascal and not Sánchez. What proves and what's the point in embedding tweets like that?

Is that Vox slogan "España Viva" viewed as a dog whistle to the slogan in the Franco era (the one starting with "España una") or does it not have that connotation?

Do you mean "Una, Grande y Libre"? "España Viva" might have that connotation for some people, likewise a slogan like "Make Spain Great Again" could be interpreted in that way. I think it's obvious the Franco's spirit is there, but Vox is not campaigning on overtly Francoist slogans.
Logged
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,048
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #230 on: April 27, 2019, 05:20:50 am »

They belong to the same political family and it's obvious that Salvini supports Abascal and not Sánchez. What proves and what's the point in embedding tweets like that?

Since you had just stated that they aren't similar and Salvini tweeted an endorsement? Didn't Salvini use to advocate for the separatists in the past? I dunno, I don't think I really "get" Europe's politics yet.
Logged
coloniac
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,307
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #231 on: April 27, 2019, 05:37:00 am »

They belong to the same political family and it's obvious that Salvini supports Abascal and not Sánchez. What proves and what's the point in embedding tweets like that?

Since you had just stated that they aren't similar and Salvini tweeted an endorsement? Didn't Salvini use to advocate for the separatists in the past? I dunno, I don't think I really "get" Europe's politics yet.

Lega yes, Salvini not so much.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,360
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #232 on: April 27, 2019, 06:30:01 am »

They belong to the same political family and it's obvious that Salvini supports Abascal and not Sánchez. What proves and what's the point in embedding tweets like that?

Since you had just stated that they aren't similar and Salvini tweeted an endorsement? Didn't Salvini use to advocate for the separatists in the past? I dunno, I don't think I really "get" Europe's politics yet.

Lega yes, Salvini not so much.

Obviously I was referring to the style of leadership. Salvini is a charismatic leader; Abascal is not.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,849
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #233 on: April 27, 2019, 06:36:17 am »

The right is going to win the election.

Well, you need to define "win".

Win the popular vote? Yeah, that is almost a certainty. Almost all polls seem to give the right an advantage of somewhere around 5 points. There is only one poll or 2 predicting a left wing victory in the popular vote and even those give narrow victories of 1 point

Win more seats than the left? That one is iffy. Because of the way Spanish elections work, with a somewhat but not fully proportional system; this one is doable but far from a certainty. I'd give it a 50% chance of happening

Being able to actually make government?. This one, while possible, is actually unlikely, I'd give it a 20-25% chance of happening. The right is a heavy underdog for this because while PSOE-UP could theoretically get into government with as little as 155 seats (if you assume getting ERC is doable), the right needs at least 176 as they can't rely in any regional parties whatsoever, not even the Canarians.

The right can easily win, but for a PP-Cs-Vox government, winning is not enough, they need to win big.
Logged
parochial boy
parochial_boy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,470


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #234 on: April 27, 2019, 06:58:37 am »

Where is PACMA's best shot of winning a seat? Madrid presumably?

Also, everyone assuming that VOX will surge by 3 points over all the polling... remember that everyone expected the same thing in France, and Sweden, and in both cases neither happens. VOX having virtually no electoral history or "last time voters" makes them harder to poll, but it doesn't necessarily mean that the polls are massively underestimating them.
Logged
Velasco
andi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,360
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #235 on: April 27, 2019, 07:54:33 am »

Where is PACMA's best shot of winning a seat? Madrid presumably?

According to the CIS, Barcelona and Valencia. I think Barcelona and Madrid, in this order. In both cases it's enough to get 3% of the vote to win a seat in Congress. PACMA performed slightly better in Barcelona (1.8%) with regard to Madrid (1.1%) in 2016.

Also, everyone assuming that VOX will surge by 3 points over all the polling... remember that everyone expected the same thing in France, and Sweden, and in both cases neither happens. VOX having virtually no electoral history or "last time voters" makes them harder to poll, but it doesn't necessarily mean that the polls are massively underestimating them.

Yes, that surge in the last minute is only a possibility. Additionally the demoscopic silence forced by our electoral law helps to spread rumours and foster fantasy. The theory of a Vox surge is based on the precedent of the Andalusian elections, when opinion polls undetected its real strength because the final rush occurred in the last days during the polling ban. People guess if there's a "shy effect" it would affect Vox. The far right party is expected to perform strongly in Madrid, Castilla, Andalusia, Murcia or Valencia. However the Vox results in Catalonia, Basque Country or Galicia will be presumaably weak. There will be surprises omorrow night, that's for sure. Vox has chances to come in third place, but maybe it won't fulfill some expectations or flights of imagination (or maybe it will, who knows). I think the game is open and nothing is written.
Logged
urutzizu
Full Member
***
Posts: 211
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #236 on: April 27, 2019, 08:13:23 am »

Where is PACMA's best shot of winning a seat? Madrid presumably?

Also, everyone assuming that VOX will surge by 3 points over all the polling... remember that everyone expected the same thing in France, and Sweden, and in both cases neither happens. VOX having virtually no electoral history or "last time voters" makes them harder to poll, but it doesn't necessarily mean that the polls are massively underestimating them.

The issue about Populist parties like VOX, RN, Lega, AFD and SD is that they do not have any sort of loyal voter base, like PP and PSOE. Like Podemos and Cs they came out of nowhere, and could disappear just as quickly, as their voters find another party to channel their hatred/disgust of the establishment, corruption, immigrants, catalans... I think they could depending on the circumstances either do way better than polls expect (like Brexit, Finns, AFD, Salvini) or way worse like (FN and SD). I suspect the former, but both is equally possible.  
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,531
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #237 on: April 27, 2019, 08:18:21 am »

Assuming PSOE-UP does not get the numbers to form a government, under what circumstances will C join up with PSOE?  I assume if the PP-C gap is small then C will prefer to stay in opposition so it can overtake PP as the main party of the Right while a large PP-C gap would see C join up with PSOE?  If so I guess there is a contradiction since a weaker C performance also means that a PSOE-C alliance might not be able to form a stable government.     
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,827
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: 6.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #238 on: April 27, 2019, 08:23:28 am »
« Edited: April 27, 2019, 08:26:56 am by DavidB. »

PSOE-C would require a huge 180 on behalf of Rivera. Which he could do because he's done it before, but after his present campaign it would be even more difficult. And he himself seems much more of a right-winger than he liked to admit, though he's showing more of his true colors now.

I think Rivera has made a strategic mistake by aligning himself to the right to such an extent, which weakens both the combined right and C's by causing PSOE-C swing voters who don't necessarily appreciate PP (let alone Vox) to move to the PSOE. Might as well just shut up about your coalition preferences, win more votes, join a right-wing coalition (or even lead it), and have these voters leave you for PSOE afterwards while you're in government anyway.
Logged
Rethliopuks
Newbie
*
Posts: 10
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #239 on: April 27, 2019, 08:30:43 am »

A huge proportion of people aren't decided. I'm worried if more of them are right wing voters than left wing ones...especially because it makes sense given how unstablised the right wing is I guess?
Logged
parochial boy
parochial_boy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,470


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #240 on: April 27, 2019, 08:34:14 am »
« Edited: April 27, 2019, 08:39:59 am by parochial boy »

Where is PACMA's best shot of winning a seat? Madrid presumably?

Also, everyone assuming that VOX will surge by 3 points over all the polling... remember that everyone expected the same thing in France, and Sweden, and in both cases neither happens. VOX having virtually no electoral history or "last time voters" makes them harder to poll, but it doesn't necessarily mean that the polls are massively underestimating them.

The issue about Populist parties like VOX, RN, Lega, AFD and SD is that they do not have any sort of loyal voter base, like PP and PSOE. Like Podemos and Cs they came out of nowhere, and could disappear just as quickly, as their voters find another party to channel their hatred/disgust of the establishment, corruption, immigrants, catalans... I think they could depending on the circumstances either do way better than polls expect (like Brexit, Finns, AFD, Salvini) or way worse like (FN and SD). I suspect the former, but both is equally possible. 

Well, RN in particular do have a well established electorate, which is why the pollsters tend to get them right (going off topic a bit - in the first round at least, in the second round the pollsters were wrong because it meant trying to understand how many non-FN voters would choose Le Pen, which was a situation that hadn't really happened before and was therefore harder to poll...).

With pollsters getting RWPP scores wrong, it is usually down to them simply asking the wrong people/sampling wrong/estimating "likelyhood to vote" etc.. wrong, rather than a "shy voter" effect - which imo, is an effect that people tend to massively overestimate. In particular, your "normal" RWPP voter tends to be someone who is harder to reach through conventional phone or internet poll (older, less educated, lower income, potentially less politically motivated and therefore less likely to answer the phone or sign up to an online panel). However, with VOX, iirc, one of the things that came out of Andalusia is that their electorate tends to be a little bit different to the clichéd "left behind working class" RWPP voter (which is, of course, nowhere near as accurate as is commonly presented). Someone correct me if I am wrong, but I think they were often demographically closer to the traditional right-wing/PP voter than, say, Le Pen voters in the rural east of France, which has always been volatile.

Anyway, what I'm saying is, yeah, there is a very good chance they are being polled incorrectly - but it could go in either direction - and it probably isn't correct to call it a "shy voter" effect.
Logged
tack50
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,849
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #241 on: April 27, 2019, 08:42:06 am »

Assuming PSOE-UP does not get the numbers to form a government, under what circumstances will C join up with PSOE?  I assume if the PP-C gap is small then C will prefer to stay in opposition so it can overtake PP as the main party of the Right while a large PP-C gap would see C join up with PSOE?  If so I guess there is a contradiction since a weaker C performance also means that a PSOE-C alliance might not be able to form a stable government.     

If Cs is to be believed, maybe, maybe they would support a PSOE-Cs government led by someone else instead of Sánchez; presumably led by a moderate like Susana Díaz (though after the Andalusian election, probably not her especifically)

But even that seems unlikely as they have shifted extremely hard to the right. Plus Cs' efforts to remove Rajoy as PP leader in 2016 failed and I can't see them succeeding this time.

If Vox overtakes Cs (meaning a weak PP government or a 3 way coalition) or even worse, PP (meaning PM Abascal) then things with PSOE-Cs would get more interesting. But if the order is PP-Cs-Vox, I can't see any way for PSOE-Cs to happen.
Logged
Worried Italian Progressive
italian-boy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,622
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #242 on: April 27, 2019, 08:56:49 am »

Has Rivera explicitly said that he would form a government with PP and Vox?

Anyway, I agree that, from the Andalusia results, the Vox electorate was more PP-like than RWPP-like.
Might be that, as they become more and more known nation-wide, they manage to reach also the latter votes.
This also seems to me the only chance for a rightwing government.

Things have definitely changed a lot from when Sanchez was forced to step down a while ago, anyway...
Logged
Worried Italian Progressive
italian-boy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,622
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #243 on: April 27, 2019, 09:00:06 am »

VOX leader Santi Abascal reminds me of a Spanish version of Salvini in Italy, which means VOX should perform really well tomorrow.
I think Santiago Abascal has little in common with Matteo Salvini, leaving aside that both are far right demagogues and have a beard. One of the main differences between Vox and other far right parties like Lega in Italy is the lack of a charismatic link between the party leader and his voters. In the case of Spain the Vox trademark is stronger than Abascal.

Exactly.
Lega was slowly disappearing when Salvini became secretary, after scandals concerning the theft of 49 million euros. He single-handedly changed it from a northern secessionist right-wing party to a national and nationalist RWPP, in large part also thanks to his communication style and his spin doctors.
It's clear that Salvini supports Vox, as much as he supports any right-wing anti-establishment party aroun the globe. He's also looking for support for his new group in the European Parliament. But that doesn't mean that Abascal is Salvini-like (except for the beard and the ugliness).
Logged
MaxQue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,010
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #244 on: April 27, 2019, 10:40:51 am »

PSOE-C would require a huge 180 on behalf of Rivera. Which he could do because he's done it before, but after his present campaign it would be even more difficult. And he himself seems much more of a right-winger than he liked to admit, though he's showing more of his true colors now.

I think Rivera has made a strategic mistake by aligning himself to the right to such an extent, which weakens both the combined right and C's by causing PSOE-C swing voters who don't necessarily appreciate PP (let alone Vox) to move to the PSOE. Might as well just shut up about your coalition preferences, win more votes, join a right-wing coalition (or even lead it), and have these voters leave you for PSOE afterwards while you're in government anyway.

They pretty mcuh no choice, they did that move when all the voters who supported for their hardline about Catalans moved to Vox/PP and they fell in polls to nearly 10%.

It was a choice between either confirming their new selling point or giving up on it and searching a new one (but an electoral campaign isn't the time to do that).
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,324
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #245 on: April 27, 2019, 10:42:09 am »

Anyway, the myth that Spain is immune to far-right populist parties will crash and burn tomorrow.

And from what I have read, it will crash and burn pretty hard, as VOX has a very successful outreach campaign on the ground and will end up with 15-20%.
Logged
DavidB.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,827
Netherlands


Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: 6.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #246 on: April 27, 2019, 10:48:18 am »

And from what I have read, it will crash and burn pretty hard, as VOX has a very successful outreach campaign on the ground and will end up with 15-20%.
Not impossible (and from your lips to God's ears), but sounds way too high and would certainly require a massive polling error. Placing my bets on 12-14% territory.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,324
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #247 on: April 27, 2019, 10:53:43 am »

And from what I have read, it will crash and burn pretty hard, as VOX has a very successful outreach campaign on the ground and will end up with 15-20%.
Not impossible (and from your lips to God's ears), but sounds way too high and would certainly require a massive polling error. Placing my bets on 12-14% territory.

It seems you are taking the more conservative approach in guesstimating the result, while I take the more realistic one. Years of massive unemployment, dissatisfaction with life and misery among a very large group of Spanish voters, imported crime and immigration from Africa and the Middle East (tolerated by the Socialist PM) and their likelihood to support fast rising startup parties like Cs and Podemos in the past suggest that there could be some massive polling error tomorrow and that voters are not telling pollsters their true intentions.

But I don't know much about Spain and what is true in other countries may not be true there, so my prediction could also be completely nuts.
Logged
Mike88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,284
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #248 on: April 27, 2019, 10:54:03 am »

A very critical factor will be turnout. Spain always had high turnout rates, but, the unpopularity of the main parties, plus the fact that all seem quite bad, could mean that turnout could fall to the lowest rate ever. This will heavily impact the balance between the left and right blocs.
Logged
Diouf
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,657
Denmark
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #249 on: April 27, 2019, 11:02:16 am »

A very critical factor will be turnout. Spain always had high turnout rates, but, the unpopularity of the main parties, plus the fact that all seem quite bad, could mean that turnout could fall to the lowest rate ever. This will heavily impact the balance between the left and right blocs.

These kind of things are hard to gauge. But there are also things suggesting higher turnout this time. 2016 was so soon after the previous election, so there might have been some fatigue. Also, I think we have seen elsewhere a turnout boost when anti-immigration parties surge in the polls as they tend to attract many previous non-voters. Also the polarizing climate between the right-wing parties and independence movements might motivate more persons to go vote.
On the other hand, I guess Podemos' downturn could be partly due to their voters sitting out. Disappointed with the party's disunity, and lack of ability to affect real change?
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 5 6 7 8 9 [10] 11 12 13 14 15 ... 32 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC