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  Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)  (Read 69770 times)
Velasco
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« Reply #250 on: April 27, 2019, 11:16:42 am »
« edited: April 27, 2019, 11:20:29 am by Velasco »

And from what I have read, it will crash and burn pretty hard, as VOX has a very successful outreach campaign on the ground and will end up with 15-20%.
Not impossible (and from your lips to God's ears), but sounds way too high and would certainly require a massive polling error. Placing my bets on 12-14% territory.

It seems you are taking the more conservative approach in guesstimating the result, while I take the more realistic one. Years of massive unemployment, dissatisfaction with life and misery among a very large group of Spanish voters, imported crime and immigration from Africa and the Middle East (tolerated by the Socialist PM) and their likelihood to support fast rising startup parties like Cs and Podemos in the past suggest that there could be some massive polling error tomorrow and that voters are not telling pollsters their true intentions.

But I don't know much about Spain and what is true in other countries may not be true there, so my prediction could also be completely nuts.

I understand your joy and happiness with the Vox surge in Spain, since you share a similar eorldview. However this post shows your deep ignorance of Spanish politics, as you admit in the last paragraph. I will have to ask you to read something before you post here. I would never dare to poke my nose into the Austrian thread without a mimimum knowledge of issues, or at least a minimum interest to understand the reality of the country. Please, go away with your Breitbart and your Tweeter
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Mike88
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« Reply #251 on: April 27, 2019, 11:16:59 am »
« Edited: April 27, 2019, 11:33:01 am by Mike88 »

A very critical factor will be turnout. Spain always had high turnout rates, but, the unpopularity of the main parties, plus the fact that all seem quite bad, could mean that turnout could fall to the lowest rate ever. This will heavily impact the balance between the left and right blocs.

These kind of things are hard to gauge. But there are also things suggesting higher turnout this time. 2016 was so soon after the previous election, so there might have been some fatigue. Also, I think we have seen elsewhere a turnout boost when anti-immigration parties surge in the polls as they tend to attract many previous non-voters. Also the polarizing climate between the right-wing parties and independence movements might motivate more persons to go vote.
On the other hand, I guess Podemos' downturn could be partly due to their voters sitting out. Disappointed with the party's disunity, and lack of ability to affect real change?
It's just my hunch, of course, and you're right that there also also things that could make turnout increase on both sides. But, look what happened in Andalusia last year. Turnout was only 56%, with a huge depressed PSOE electorate and a unprecedented surge of Vox voters coming from the two main parties.

My view is that the majority of undecided voters are centrist/center-right voters who don't know what to do. They don't like Sanchéz, feel that the PP has become desperate, that C's is flip floping on many things and Vox, well, could be just unacceptable. They may just stay home. This time around, low turnout could benefit the left. We'll see.

Nonetheless, the level of uncertainty, drama and fear is unprecedented in Spanish politics.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #252 on: April 27, 2019, 11:22:22 am »

And from what I have read, it will crash and burn pretty hard, as VOX has a very successful outreach campaign on the ground and will end up with 15-20%.
Not impossible (and from your lips to God's ears), but sounds way too high and would certainly require a massive polling error. Placing my bets on 12-14% territory.

It seems you are taking the more conservative approach in guesstimating the result, while I take the more realistic one. Years of massive unemployment, dissatisfaction with life and misery among a very large group of Spanish voters, imported crime and immigration from Africa and the Middle East (tolerated by the Socialist PM) and their likelihood to support fast rising startup parties like Cs and Podemos in the past suggest that there could be some massive polling error tomorrow and that voters are not telling pollsters their true intentions.

But I don't know much about Spain and what is true in other countries may not be true there, so my prediction could also be completely nuts.

I understand your joy and happiness with the Vox surge in Spain, since you share a similar eorldview. However this post shows your deep ignorance of Spanish politics, as you admit in the last paragraph. I will have to ask you to read something before you post here. I would never dare to poke my nose into the Austrian thread without a mimimum knowledge of issues, or at least a minimun interest to understand the reality of the country. Please, go away with your Breitbart and your Tweeter

A) I can post my 1 or 2 cents on any topic or issue and on any thread I want, even in the Spanish election thread.

B) I do share some points with VOX on immigration, for sure. But I also oppose many other of their positions such as the abortion ban, the dissolution of the Spanish regions or their hostility to the media and press freedom. Just because I share their common-sense view on immigration, it doesn't make me a Breitbarterer or a supporter of VOX as you falsely claim.
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Velasco
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« Reply #253 on: April 27, 2019, 11:37:25 am »

You can post your two cents as long as you are respectful. That post of yours is not respectful and is plenty of inaccuracies. I think it's obvious that you share the same worldviews of the far right. Opinion is free. Trolling, falsehood and disrespect are not. I think you don't have an actual interest in Spain and there are plenty threads where uou can share your hatred of immigrants. Please, Tender, go.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #254 on: April 27, 2019, 11:39:44 am »

You can post your two cents as long as you are respectful. That post of yours is not respectful and is plenty of inaccuracies. I think it's obvious that you share the same worldviews of the far right. Opinion is free. Trolling, falsehood and disrespect are not. I think uou don't have an actual interest in Spain and there are plenty threads where uou can share your hatred of immigrants. Please, Tender, go.

Please explain this further. I would like to see what exactly you mean by these accusations ...
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DavidB.
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« Reply #255 on: April 27, 2019, 11:40:55 am »

Or let's not and stay focused on the election. Will we get one last emojipanel today?
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tack50
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« Reply #256 on: April 27, 2019, 11:41:15 am »

Anyway, the myth that Spain is immune to far-right populist parties will crash and burn tomorrow.

And from what I have read, it will crash and burn pretty hard, as VOX has a very successful outreach campaign on the ground and will end up with 15-20%.

Next stop for crashing and burning the myth of immunity to far right populism: Portugal? Tongue

15-20% is way, way too high though. As DavidB has said, 12-14% seems more realistic for a "Vox surge" scenario. I'd cap Vox at 15%

And that's of course if you assume a surge in the first place. It's also possible that polls actually got them right (which would mean 11%) or that they overestimated them (very unlikely though)

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tack50
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« Reply #257 on: April 27, 2019, 11:49:52 am »

You can post your two cents as long as you are respectful. That post of yours is not respectful and is plenty of inaccuracies. I think it's obvious that you share the same worldviews of the far right. Opinion is free. Trolling, falsehood and disrespect are not. I think you don't have an actual interest in Spain and there are plenty threads where uou can share your hatred of immigrants. Please, Tender, go.

While Tender's take was indeed bad, he did express it in a respectful way. Inaccuracies and bad takes are not disrespectful. And I won't say anything else on the matter, unless we want to have the mods have to clean up this mess.

Or let's not and stay focused on the election. Will we get one last emojipanel today?

No, the people behind it said they weren't publishing any more panels. They have said they will keep taking answers to their panel though, and publish an "Exit panel" as a sort of exit poll.

We will also get 2 proper polls made during the campaign though, like we had in the Catalan and Andalusian elections. One will be done by GAD3 for TVE (the national public TV). Another will be done by IMOP for Cadena COPE (a large private radio station which leans conservative). They will both be released at 20:00 Spanish time when polls close in the mainland.

No proper exit polls though. (or Andorra fruit polls for that matter).
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #258 on: April 27, 2019, 11:52:51 am »

Okay, as someone who is rather out of touch on Spanish politics, I have a question regarding the ERC and a PSOE government.  Would the ERC demand a government sponsored referendum for Independence in exchange for supporting the government?  Or do they have a different price? 

Also, what progress have any of the other regionalists/nationalists, particularly Basque ones, made this election?
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Skye
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« Reply #259 on: April 27, 2019, 11:59:04 am »

One question. These will be the first Spanish elections I'll follow live and with a general idea of what's happening. Any suggestions on which news sites to check out, which accounts should I follow on twitter, and the sort?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #260 on: April 27, 2019, 12:03:13 pm »

Okay, as someone who is rather out of touch on Spanish politics, I have a question regarding the ERC and a PSOE government.  Would the ERC demand a government sponsored referendum for Independence in exchange for supporting the government?  Or do they have a different price? 

Also, what progress have any of the other regionalists/nationalists, particularly Basque ones, made this election?
If any of our Spanish posters could give us a brief overview of all regionalists that are expected to win seats ("ERC: left-wing, Catalan nationalist, could/could not support PSOE" etc) that would be much appreciated as well. It's very unclear to me. Are there any that could provide support to a right-wing government?
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Velasco
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« Reply #261 on: April 27, 2019, 12:03:39 pm »

Or let's not and stay focused on the election.

That's a good idea
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tack50
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« Reply #262 on: April 27, 2019, 12:04:49 pm »

Speaking of Vox surges, El País and Kiko Llaneras have published what they believe are the 6 most likely ways for the polls to fail. They recognize that while polls are generally accurate, there is always a polling mistake somewhere. So here it is



https://elpais.com/politica/2019/04/27/actualidad/1556358041_818858.html

And here are the scenarios they believe are most likely if polls miss:

1: Vox surge (like other examples across Europe)
2: More general right wing surge (kind of like Andalucia)
3: Podemos makes a comeback (kind of like 2015)
4: The trends during the first half of the campaign keep going
5: PP resilience (kind of like 2016)
6: 100% accurate polls

Yes, 100% accurate polls would also qualify as a mistake historically speaking. Also, I believe scenario 4 is not happening, as the debates pretty much stopped any PSOE momentum and benefited Cs.

Okay, as someone who is rather out of touch on Spanish politics, I have a question regarding the ERC and a PSOE government.  Would the ERC demand a government sponsored referendum for Independence in exchange for supporting the government?  Or do they have a different price? 

Also, what progress have any of the other regionalists/nationalists, particularly Basque ones, made this election?

Yeah, they will probably ask for that plus a pardon for the Catalan politicians in jail. PSOE is almost definitely not accepting it (I can see them pardoning the Catalan politicians or commuting their sentences under some circumstances; but a referendum is not happening, ever, under PSOE).

Whether they will accept empty words about dialogue and comprehension or adopt a harsh line of "referendum now", I do not know. I personally believe they won't.

As for the Basques, I don't really get the question. PNV is not actively pushing for independence. Bildu is indeed actively for independence, but they've adopted a very moderate approach on that and do openly say they will support Sánchez. Very surprising for a party where a large part of the membership supported the murders of local PSOE officials by ETA as reciently as 11 years ago!

PNV is 100% reliable for Sánchez IMO, while Bildu is more or less where ERC is. However, because of ETA, PSOE can't exactly ask for Bildu support openly, it gives absolutely horrible optics.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #263 on: April 27, 2019, 12:10:37 pm »

Considering that there were two back-to-back debates during the polling blackout, the likelihood that the polls fail in disastrous fashion seems pretty likely. I think that the most plausible scenario would be an eyepopping Podemos overperformance, which wouldn't be difficult to accomplish. In the end though, there's a lot of uncertainty. No "side" has reason to feel very confident because we're all in the dark.
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tack50
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« Reply #264 on: April 27, 2019, 12:16:54 pm »

Okay, as someone who is rather out of touch on Spanish politics, I have a question regarding the ERC and a PSOE government.  Would the ERC demand a government sponsored referendum for Independence in exchange for supporting the government?  Or do they have a different price? 

Also, what progress have any of the other regionalists/nationalists, particularly Basque ones, made this election?
If any of our Spanish posters could give us a brief overview of all regionalists that are expected to win seats ("ERC: left-wing, Catalan nationalist, could/could not support PSOE" etc) that would be much appreciated as well. It's very unclear to me. Are there any that could provide support to a right-wing government?

Here you go. All chances are assuming a PSOE-UP government.

For PSOE-Cs, no one would support that except NA+, CC, PRC and maybe Compromís (this last one is very unlikely though).

For PP-Cs-Vox, only NA+ would support that.

Certain to get seats

ERC: Left wing, Catalan secessionist. Unclear if they would support PSOE (lean no). Expected seats: 10-15

JxCat: Centre-right, Catalan secessionist. Probably would not support PSOE, but not 100% certain. Expected seats: 4-8

PNV: Centre-right. Basque nationalist. Almost 100% certain that they would support PSOE. Expected seats: 6

Compromís: Left wing. Valencian nationalist. Almost 100% certain to support PSOE. Expected seats: 3-5

Bildu: Left wing. Basque secessionist. Unclear if they would support PSOE (lean yes personally but very debatable). Expected seats: 2-4

Navarra Suma: Right wing. Navarra regionalist. Coalition between PP, Cs and UPN in Navarra, but all seats will go to UPN because of how the list was made. Expected seats: 2. Almost 100% certain not to support Sánchez.

May or may not enter

BNG: Left wing. Galician secessionist. Almost 100% certain to support PSOE. Expected seats: 0-2

CC: Centre-right. Canarian nationalist. Almost 100% certain to NOT support PSOE. Expected seats: 0-1

FR: Far left. Catalan secessionist. Almost 100% certain to NOT support PSOE. Expected seats: 0-2

NCa: Centre-left. Canarian nationalist. Almost 100% certain to support PSOE. Expected seats: 0-1

PRC: Centre-left, but quite populist. Cantabria regionalist. Almost 100% certain to support PSOE. Expected seats: 0-1
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DavidB.
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« Reply #265 on: April 27, 2019, 12:22:13 pm »

Many thanks!
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rc18
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« Reply #266 on: April 27, 2019, 01:10:50 pm »

Considering that there were two back-to-back debates during the polling blackout, the likelihood that the polls fail in disastrous fashion seems pretty likely. I think that the most plausible scenario would be an eyepopping Podemos overperformance, which wouldn't be difficult to accomplish. In the end though, there's a lot of uncertainty. No "side" has reason to feel very confident because we're all in the dark.

There's still polls, they just measure ***ahem*** people's fruit and vegetable preferences, or what hairstyle people like...
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Velasco
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« Reply #267 on: April 27, 2019, 01:24:10 pm »

Considering that there were two back-to-back debates during the polling blackout, the likelihood that the polls fail in disastrous fashion seems pretty likely. I think that the most plausible scenario would be an eyepopping Podemos overperformance, which wouldn't be difficult to accomplish. In the end though, there's a lot of uncertainty. No "side" has reason to feel very confident because we're all in the dark.

There's still polls, they just measure ***ahem*** people's fruit and vegetable preferences, or what hairstyle people like...

As said before, the "emojipanel" is a fake poll. There are polls commissioned by parties and other organizations, but they are not released. Also, there is a high degree of uncertainty everywhere.
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« Reply #268 on: April 27, 2019, 01:35:50 pm »

last demoscopia / okdiario (04/26)

PSOE 27 (117)
PP 21 (84)
C 15 (51)
Vox 13 (41)
Podemos 12 (28)

So a very short majority (176) for the right.
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Umengus
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« Reply #269 on: April 27, 2019, 01:38:25 pm »

So my 2 cents (in respectful way of course):

I think (and strongly hope) that vox is underestimated:

PSOE 25
PP 20
VoX 16
C 15
Podemos 12


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Velasco
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« Reply #270 on: April 27, 2019, 01:45:59 pm »

last demoscopia / okdiario (04/26)

Is Okdiario breaching the polling ban?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #271 on: April 27, 2019, 01:47:15 pm »

Is there any 'seat calculators'/estimators' out there? Like I said on my Twitter, D'Hondt ends up apportioning seats in a Tangential way (Hard to win low%, easy to win high%) but the 'midpoint' of those Tangential functions differs based on overall parties and your national distribution. I have a good feeling that the Right vote is going cut itself to pieces considering Vox's Andalusia numbers correlated linearly with PP+C's numbers, but I would like to confirm/get an estimate with a calculator.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #272 on: April 27, 2019, 01:55:16 pm »

Ok, so whats the seat target figure for combined right wing parties that gets Casado in as PM?  Somewhere in the low 170's?
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tack50
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« Reply #273 on: April 27, 2019, 02:06:56 pm »

Is there any 'seat calculators'/estimators' out there? Like I said on my Twitter, D'Hondt ends up apportioning seats in a Tangential way (Hard to win low%, easy to win high%) but the 'midpoint' of those Tangential functions differs based on overall parties and your national distribution. I have a good feeling that the Right vote is going cut itself to pieces considering Vox's Andalusia numbers correlated linearly with PP+C's numbers, but I would like to confirm/get an estimate with a calculator.

After a quick research, I was able to find this, which somehow gives a rough estimation. It only allows you to change the main 5 parties and fixes the "others" percentage at 6% (which is too low in my opinion). Still, I guess it's good enough for a rough estimate.

https://politibot.io/juega-a-repartir-escanos-asi-se-asignaran-segun-el-voto-el-28a/
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tack50
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« Reply #274 on: April 27, 2019, 02:11:47 pm »

Ok, so whats the seat target figure for combined right wing parties that gets Casado in as PM?  Somewhere in the low 170's?

For PP-Cs-Vox, it's 176 (ie an absolute majority) or bust. 174 if you want to be technical and count NA+ separately.

They can't depend on any regional parties whatsoever, not even CC (which is usually very happy about making deals with PP!)

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