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  Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)  (Read 63875 times)
TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #275 on: April 27, 2019, 02:27:39 pm »

Not sure if these internal polls from PSOE and Podemos have been posted yet:

PSOE internal poll: PSOE 30-31%, PP 15-17%, Vox 13-16%, C's ?, Podemos ?
Podemos internal poll: PSOE 30%, Podemos 15%, PP 15%, C's 15%, Vox 15%

My read of these polls is that, on the one hand, there's every reason to believe that it's in the interests of both PSOE and Podemos to show a Vox surge in order to mobilize their base. It's noteworthy that both polls appear to be very similar, of course, but both parties have similar interests. Simultaneously, the debates were a trainwreck for PP and, frankly, for the C's as well, with both Rivera and, especially, Casado coming off as feuding clowns incapable of governing.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #276 on: April 27, 2019, 03:18:00 pm »

My updated prediction:

Image Link
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #277 on: April 27, 2019, 03:18:21 pm »

That would leave a massive 13% for „other“ parties.

Who would get that ?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #278 on: April 27, 2019, 03:25:00 pm »

That would leave a massive 13% for „other“ parties.

Who would get that ?
PACMA and the regionalists. But it's going to be off either way, given the polling blackout, the bad polls in the first place, and the uncertain debate effects. I'm just guessing the right will slightly outperform the polls and be around 175 (not sure on which side...).
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Velasco
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« Reply #279 on: April 27, 2019, 03:47:34 pm »

Not sure if these internal polls from PSOE and Podemos have been posted yet:

PSOE internal poll: PSOE 30-31%, PP 15-17%, Vox 13-16%, C's ?, Podemos ?
Podemos internal poll: PSOE 30%, Podemos 15%, PP 15%, C's 15%, Vox 15%

My read of these polls is that, on the one hand, there's every reason to believe that it's in the interests of both PSOE and Podemos to show a Vox surge in order to mobilize their base. It's noteworthy that both polls appear to be very similar, of course, but both parties have similar interests. Simultaneously, the debates were a trainwreck for PP and, frankly, for the C's as well, with both Rivera and, especially, Casado coming off as feuding clowns incapable of governing.

Obviously these "internal polls" are biased leaks. Yesterday I read about a PP internal poll giving 50 seats to Vox and a range between 60 and 120 seats to the PP. These informations must be taken with loads of salt.

Regarding the debates, they must be seen taking into account that every candidate is seeking to appeal a different audience. Casado tried a 'moderate' and 'institutional' approach on the first night and was overcome by Rivera's aggressiveness. So Rivera succeed in the eyes of his potential audience, that is to say among voters right of the centre. On second night, Casado sought a body-to-body combat with the aim to recover the lost ground. It can be argued the rightwing candidates showed a lamentable image of confrontation, if compared with the synergy between Sánchez and Iglesias.  However, it's highly unlikely the debates favour vote transfers between ideological blocs in the present context of extreme polarization.
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jaichind
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« Reply #280 on: April 27, 2019, 06:31:57 pm »

Ideally PP C and VOX all get around 16%-18% from a seat optimization point of view for the Right wing forces which is what I am hoping for.  While I suspect VOX might be under-polled I think there is a chance it might be over-polled as pollsters overcompensate for what took place in Andalusia.  Also I think there might be last minute VOX->PP tactical voting if there is a belief that VOX might not cross the threshold to get seats. Hopefully I am wrong and VOX can have a strong election night.
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Rethliopuks
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« Reply #281 on: April 27, 2019, 08:20:38 pm »

last demoscopia / okdiario (04/26)

Is Okdiario breaching the polling ban?

Dk, does hairdressing preference reporting count?

okdiario.com/espana/cortes-pelo-raya-derecha-centro-o-barba-hipster-logran-ya-mas-votos-que-izquierdas-4035605
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∀lex
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« Reply #282 on: April 27, 2019, 09:43:04 pm »

last demoscopia / okdiario (04/26)

Is Okdiario breaching the polling ban?

Dk, does hairdressing preference reporting count?

okdiario.com/espana/cortes-pelo-raya-derecha-centro-o-barba-hipster-logran-ya-mas-votos-que-izquierdas-4035605

The Andorran Market has been a thing for years and no one in power has done anything to change it, despite it being public knowledge (and reported on every Spanish newspaper)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #283 on: April 28, 2019, 12:19:14 am »

It seems as if this is going to be the official results page from the Interior Ministry:

https://www.resultados.eleccionesgenerales19.es/Inicio/es

El Pais:

https://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/generales.html

El Mundo:

https://www.elmundo.es/elecciones/elecciones-generales/resultados
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #284 on: April 28, 2019, 01:05:46 am »


Polls are now open.

A first measurement of turnout will come at 14:00 local time.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #285 on: April 28, 2019, 02:19:16 am »

36.9 million people are eligible to vote today, of which 34.8 million are in Spain and 2.1 million are Spanish citizens abroad.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #286 on: April 28, 2019, 03:45:09 am »


Your optimism is duly noted.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #287 on: April 28, 2019, 03:46:53 am »

The voting weather is great today, sunny and up to 30°C in the South and a bit cooler in the North:

Image Link
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #288 on: April 28, 2019, 03:51:01 am »
« Edited: April 28, 2019, 03:55:44 am by Tender Branson »

Only 1 out of 60.038 precincts is not up and running yet.

https://www.resultados.eleccionesgenerales19.es/Avances/Total-nacional/0/es

Update (10:54):

Now all 60.038 precincts are up and running.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #289 on: April 28, 2019, 04:31:08 am »

This is interesting (according to me).
In the 2015 elections the left (PSOE, IU and Podemos later om UP) got 161 seats and in 2016 they got 156 seats and Electopanel predicts that the will get 162 this time. Left regionalist parties (ERC, EHB and Compromis) got 11 seats in 2015, 11 in 2016 and 19 this time (Compromis is standing alone this time). The left in total got 172 seats in 2015, 167 in 2016 and is predicted to get 171 this time. Not much change in three elections!

The right (PP and C's and this time Vox and NS) got 166 seats in 2015, 163 in 2016 and is predicted to get 169. Not much change.

Centreright regionalist parties (JPC earlier DEL and CDC, PNV and CC) got 15 seats in 2015, 14 in 2016 and is predicted to get 11 this time. Not much change there either.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #290 on: April 28, 2019, 05:04:16 am »

I'm so bad at predictions and this is probably wrong, but at some point I'll get it right and look brilliant. So here it goes.

PSOE: 130
PP: 75
Cs: 45
Podemos: 35
Vox: 33
Otros: 32

PSOE-Podemos make a vote-and-supply deal with smaller parties to prop up a minority government.
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tack50
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« Reply #291 on: April 28, 2019, 05:33:14 am »

This is interesting (according to me).
In the 2015 elections the left (PSOE, IU and Podemos later om UP) got 161 seats and in 2016 they got 156 seats and Electopanel predicts that the will get 162 this time. Left regionalist parties (ERC, EHB and Compromis) got 11 seats in 2015, 11 in 2016 and 19 this time (Compromis is standing alone this time). The left in total got 172 seats in 2015, 167 in 2016 and is predicted to get 171 this time. Not much change in three elections!

The right (PP and C's and this time Vox and NS) got 166 seats in 2015, 163 in 2016 and is predicted to get 169. Not much change.

Centreright regionalist parties (JPC earlier DEL and CDC, PNV and CC) got 15 seats in 2015, 14 in 2016 and is predicted to get 11 this time. Not much change there either.


To be fair 2015 and 2016 were 2 back to back elections so no surprise that there wasn't much change. The fact that 2019 may also be similar to those 2 is uncommon, but not exactly unprecedented.

There are other examples of 2 consecutive elections having similar results like 1977-1979 or 2004-2008.
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tack50
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« Reply #292 on: April 28, 2019, 05:53:06 am »

Also, regarding where to watch the results, I'd personally recommend the private websites (El País or El Mundo; or really any Spanish news site) over the official website

The main issue is that for some reason the official websites for results separate the results of Podemos proper and their alliances. So this time you get "Podemos-IU-Equo" and "ECP-Guanyem el canvi" (in Catalonia) which is misleading.
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Mike88
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« Reply #293 on: April 28, 2019, 07:16:18 am »

It seems that my fears about turnout were a bit too pessimistic... (until now)

At 14:00h, turnout is up 4% from 2016 and reaches 41.4%
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rc18
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« Reply #294 on: April 28, 2019, 07:18:57 am »

So if i’m reading the turnout numbers right, turnout is up most in both right-leaning regions (Castille,Valencia etc) and separatist leaning ones (Catalonia, Basque Country). Not so much in places like Andalusia. Does not seem great for PSOE?
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #295 on: April 28, 2019, 07:19:11 am »

It seems that my fears about turnout were a bit too pessimistic... (until now)

At 14:00h, turnout is up 4% from 2016 and reaches 41.4%

My hunch is that would tend to dilute the vote share of Vox and the separatists, but who knows, I guess.
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tack50
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« Reply #296 on: April 28, 2019, 07:23:33 am »

So if i’m reading the turnout numbers right, turnout is up most in both right-leaning regions (Castille,Valencia etc) and separatist leaning ones (Catalonia, Basque Country). Not so much in places like Andalusia. Does not seem great for PSOE?

Turnout is up all across Spain. However the thing is that while turnout is up massively in Catalonia (in many places matching the turnout from the regional elections!), in the rest of Spain the increase is a more moderate one of about 4%

Image Link

Within Catalonia it looks like a secessionist surge more than a unionist one, judging by the fact that Girona and Lleida are the provinces with higher turnout

Also, this preliminary turnout report is the highest since 1993 and 2nd highest in history. Turnout may well reach the mid 70s.
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tack50
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« Reply #297 on: April 28, 2019, 07:31:41 am »

From a more detailed report, it looks like the right and the left are both turning out, just in different parts of the country.

Here's for example El Ejido, the one municipality where Vox won in the Andalusian regional election:

2016: 34.5%
2019: 40.7%

Compare that to Andalucia at large:

2016: 37.6%
2019: 38.9%

So in Andalucia we might see the same phenomenon as in the regional election where it is the right that flocks to the polls.

In Catalonia meanwhile while turnout is up everywhere, secessionist rural areas (like Vic) are up more than unionist areas (like L'Hospitalet)

Finally, decided to compare a rich neighbourhood in Madrid (Salamanca) to a poor/working class one (Villa-Vallecas). Turnout seems to have increased equally on both.

Just what we needed, more uncertainty Tongue
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #298 on: April 28, 2019, 07:39:39 am »

From a more detailed report, it looks like the right and the left are both turning out, just in different parts of the country.

Here's for example El Ejido, the one municipality where Vox won in the Andalusian regional election:

2016: 34.5%
2019: 40.7%

Compare that to Andalucia at large:

2016: 37.6%
2019: 38.9%

So in Andalucia we might see the same phenomenon as in the regional election where it is the right that flocks to the polls.

In Catalonia meanwhile while turnout is up everywhere, secessionist rural areas (like Vic) are up more than unionist areas (like L'Hospitalet)

Just what we needed, more uncertainty Tongue

It's not hugely helpful in this context to look at autonomias anyway. When you look at turnout in a more granular or especially municipal level the picture is pretty interesting. PP hub Lugo and Vox base town of Almeria have only small turnout bumps. While leftist Alcocorn in Madrid has a more significant bump. It's also hard to predict what Catalonia will do, and a massive turnout in Barcelona could augur a major result for Podemos or the separatist parties.

But as a general rule the turnout is mostly up 3-5 points across the board without really favoring either the right or left.
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Rethliopuks
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« Reply #299 on: April 28, 2019, 07:41:34 am »

This is meaningless observation anyway but the turnout is 1/8 higher than 2016 across Spain, and 1/3 higher in Catalonia. Quite impressive...
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