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  Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez: July 22-25)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez: July 22-25)  (Read 33550 times)
parochial boy
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« Reply #300 on: April 28, 2019, 07:49:03 am »

From a more detailed report, it looks like the right and the left are both turning out, just in different parts of the country.

Here's for example El Ejido, the one municipality where Vox won in the Andalusian regional election:

2016: 34.5%
2019: 40.7%

Compare that to Andalucia at large:

2016: 37.6%
2019: 38.9%

So in Andalucia we might see the same phenomenon as in the regional election where it is the right that flocks to the polls.

In Catalonia meanwhile while turnout is up everywhere, secessionist rural areas (like Vic) are up more than unionist areas (like L'Hospitalet)

Just what we needed, more uncertainty Tongue

It's not hugely helpful in this context to look at autonomias anyway. When you look at turnout in a more granular or especially municipal level the picture is pretty interesting. PP hub Lugo and Vox base town of Almeria have only small turnout bumps. While leftist Alcocorn in Madrid has a more significant bump. It's also hard to predict what Catalonia will do, and a massive turnout in Barcelona could augur a major result for Podemos or the separatist parties.

But as a general rule the turnout is mostly up 3-5 points across the board without really favoring either the right or left.

Was gonna say something like this, and it's also probably worth remarking that those areas in Aragon and Castilla y Leon that look like they are having big increases in turnout are also pretty sparsely inhabited. With the exception of Zaragoza, it will take pretty big swings in the likes of Teruel to move any seats at all.

Honestly, I wouldn't read anything into the reports at all. We always overreact to turnout reports, and get it wrong more often than right tbh.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #301 on: April 28, 2019, 07:59:21 am »

When the voting will end?
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Velasco
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« Reply #302 on: April 28, 2019, 08:06:09 am »

When the voting will end?

20:00 CET in mainland Spain and Balearic Islands
20:00 GMT in Canary Islands

High turnout is always good news. regardless the final results (cross fingers). I voted minutes ago and there was more people in my polling place than previous elections. People is getting the importance of this general election and is going to vote.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #303 on: April 28, 2019, 08:42:43 am »

When the voting will end?

At this rate next decade. Spain should just have elections every every month until someone gets a majority.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #304 on: April 28, 2019, 09:12:37 am »



Here's another case of confusing turnout. Madrid's the most conservative of the bunch, but it has the average turnout. Frankly, if we remove Catalonia, it just looks like turnout is up everywhere by 2-4 points with a few exceptions.

Another good example of confusing turnout is Andalusia. On the surface, it looks bad for PSOE. But then on further analysis, the province with the highest turnout, Seville, is the only one where PSOE+AA had more votes then PP+C's+Vox in 2018.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #305 on: April 28, 2019, 09:23:49 am »

The strong rise in turnout should be good news for VOX, as a lot of previously disappointed people seem to be coming into the fold now with that additional choice for them.

On the other hand, urban people will turn out against them - which might keep them "under control". I think my 17% for VOX should come pretty close to the actual results later during the night.
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Velasco
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« Reply #306 on: April 28, 2019, 09:35:58 am »

I wouldn't dare to predict anything, because my crystal ball is not sending clear signs to me. It seems the Steve Bannon's oracle is talking through a medium from Austria. Everything is possible, but it seems clear that it's imposible to avert intoxication
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #307 on: April 28, 2019, 09:36:10 am »

The strong rise in turnout should be good news for VOX, as a lot of previously disappointed people seem to be coming into the fold now with that additional choice for them.

On the other hand, urban people will turn out against them - which might keep them "under control". I think my 17% for VOX should come pretty close to the actual results later during the night.

Once again, you demonstrate your lack of understanding about Spanish politics. Rural areas do not lean uniformity to the conservatives/centralists, and urban areas do not lean uniformly to the left. The rural south also has much more voters then the rural north, making both geographic 'regions' parities on the national level. Vox is likely to get a 'good' score in Madrid for instance. The only place turnout is truly surging compared to the nation is in Catalonia, which is rightly afraid of the centralists/federalist debate that has dominated this campaign.
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rc18
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« Reply #308 on: April 28, 2019, 09:39:14 am »
« Edited: April 28, 2019, 10:53:52 am by rc18 »

Here's another case of confusing turnout. Madrid's the most conservative of the bunch, but it has the average turnout. Frankly, if we remove Catalonia, it just looks like turnout is up everywhere by 2-4 points with a few exceptions.

Another good example of confusing turnout is Andalusia. On the surface, it looks bad for PSOE. But then on further analysis, the province with the highest turnout, Seville, is the only one where PSOE+AA had more votes then PP+C's+Vox in 2018.

Is Andalusia that confusing? In most places the turnout is sub par. The best places are Almeria and Seville. Almeria is obvious. As for Seville if PSOE turnout was strong you expect other high PSOE areas to see turnout increase well.  The solution to the riddle could be Seville was one of the best places for Podemos partner AA. Of course they could be turning out to vote for PSOE...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #309 on: April 28, 2019, 09:45:10 am »

I wouldn't dare to predict anything, because my crystal ball is not sending clear signs to me. It seems the Steve Bannon's oracle is talking through a medium from Austria. Everything is possible, but it seems clear that it's imposible to avert intoxication

Roll Eyes

Once again, you demonstrate your lack of understanding about Spanish politics. Rural areas do not lean uniformity to the conservatives/centralists, and urban areas do not lean uniformly to the left. The rural south also has much more voters then the rural north, making both geographic 'regions' parities on the national level. Vox is likely to get a 'good' score in Madrid for instance. The only place turnout is truly surging compared to the nation is in Catalonia, which is rightly afraid of the centralists/federalist debate that has dominated this campaign.

VOX has only received 0.2% last time, so it is hard to tell where their strongholds are now that they could get ~15% today.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #310 on: April 28, 2019, 09:46:04 am »

Here's another case of confusing turnout. Madrid's the most conservative of the bunch, but it has the average turnout. Frankly, if we remove Catalonia, it just looks like turnout is up everywhere by 2-4 points with a few exceptions.

Another good example of confusing turnout is Andalusia. On the surface, it looks bad for PSOE. But then on further analysis, the province with the highest turnout, Seville, is the only one where PSOE+AA had more votes then PP+C's+Vox in 2018.

Is Andalusia that confusing? In most places the turnout is sub par. The best places are Almeria and Seville. Almeria is obvious. As for Seville if PSOE turnout was strong you expect other high PSOE areas to see turnout increase well.  The solution to the riddle could be Seville was one of the best places for Podemos partner AA.

Turnout in Almeria, a Vox stronghold, is well below the national turnout bump.
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Double Carpet
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« Reply #311 on: April 28, 2019, 09:50:29 am »

Thanks to everyone for all the updates!

Does anyone have links for TV coverage online that won't be geoblocked?

Also am I right in saying that Spain has never had a coalition govt at the national level (as opposed to confidence/supply) since the return to democracy?

Thanks!

DC
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rc18
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« Reply #312 on: April 28, 2019, 09:52:30 am »
« Edited: April 28, 2019, 09:59:53 am by rc18 »

Here's another case of confusing turnout. Madrid's the most conservative of the bunch, but it has the average turnout. Frankly, if we remove Catalonia, it just looks like turnout is up everywhere by 2-4 points with a few exceptions.

Another good example of confusing turnout is Andalusia. On the surface, it looks bad for PSOE. But then on further analysis, the province with the highest turnout, Seville, is the only one where PSOE+AA had more votes then PP+C's+Vox in 2018.

Is Andalusia that confusing? In most places the turnout is sub par. The best places are Almeria and Seville. Almeria is obvious. As for Seville if PSOE turnout was strong you expect other high PSOE areas to see turnout increase well.  The solution to the riddle could be Seville was one of the best places for Podemos partner AA.

Turnout in Almeria, a Vox stronghold, is well below the national turnout bump.
Yes? And?

All of Andalusia has a lower increase in turnout compared to the rest of the country, Almeria is just the least worst with a 3.6 point increase, not far off the national average.

Anyway Vox tend to do better in areas that have low levels of absolute turnout.
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Velasco
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« Reply #313 on: April 28, 2019, 09:59:48 am »



VOX has only received 0.2% last time, so it is hard to tell where their strongholds are now that they could get ~15% today.

If it's hard to tell where are the Vox strongholds, it should be hard to tell that Vox will get more than 15% (btw, this is the Steve Bannon's prediction). Hard to tell does not imply impossible to guess. The Andalusian results, examined at precinct level, could provide some clues.
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kaoras
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« Reply #314 on: April 28, 2019, 10:04:56 am »

I wouldn't dare to predict anything, because my crystal ball is not sending clear signs to me. It seems the Steve Bannon's oracle is talking through a medium from Austria. Everything is possible, but it seems clear that it's imposible to avert intoxication

Roll Eyes

Once again, you demonstrate your lack of understanding about Spanish politics. Rural areas do not lean uniformity to the conservatives/centralists, and urban areas do not lean uniformly to the left. The rural south also has much more voters then the rural north, making both geographic 'regions' parities on the national level. Vox is likely to get a 'good' score in Madrid for instance. The only place turnout is truly surging compared to the nation is in Catalonia, which is rightly afraid of the centralists/federalist debate that has dominated this campaign.

VOX has only received 0.2% last time, so it is hard to tell where their strongholds are now that they could get ~15% today.

Andalusian results indicate that Vox does better in typical right wing strongholds, don't know why this should change.

And honestly, your extreme lack of understanding of Spanish Politics wouldn't be so annoying if you weren't going to delight us with very insightful takes on Vox rise later tonight.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #315 on: April 28, 2019, 10:11:47 am »

  I do buy into the idea of previous non-voters who lean strongly to the right being more likely to vote this time around with Vox being a viable choice, whereas in previous elections PP was the only viable choice.  So in theory a greater % of the vote going overall to right wing parties just because of this.
  
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jaichind
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« Reply #316 on: April 28, 2019, 10:25:37 am »

 I do buy into the idea of previous non-voters who lean strongly to the right being more likely to vote this time around with Vox being a viable choice, whereas in previous elections PP was the only viable choice.  So in theory a greater % of the vote going overall to right wing parties just because of this.
  

As much as I want this theory to be true I tend to think higher turnout should work to the benefit of the Left just like in 2004 and 2008.  So far the signs are not good for a Right wing victory.
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Sestak
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« Reply #317 on: April 28, 2019, 10:45:07 am »

So 2 hours and 15 minutes to closing.

How does this work - is it just the standard European “exits immieately, then actual counting” formula? If so, then how reliable are Spanish exits?
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #318 on: April 28, 2019, 11:08:28 am »

So 2 hours and 15 minutes to closing.

How does this work - is it just the standard European “exits immieately, then actual counting” formula? If so, then how reliable are Spanish exits?

I actually think it will be like Finland with early vote tallies, although I think that there might be a couple of polls released at 2000. Oddly I don't think they are actually exit polls, per se.
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Michael19754
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« Reply #319 on: April 28, 2019, 11:10:52 am »

Turnout is up nearly 10% at 6 PM!
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Michael19754
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« Reply #320 on: April 28, 2019, 11:11:25 am »

18%(!) in Catalonia
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #321 on: April 28, 2019, 11:13:42 am »

Turnout is up nearly 10% at 6 PM!

What's fun is that literally nobody knows what that actually means for results given the novelty of Vox and where that turnout is especially high.
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tack50
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« Reply #322 on: April 28, 2019, 11:19:44 am »

18%(!) in Catalonia

Catalonia's turnout is ridiculous. Even higher than the regional election right after article 155!
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rc18
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« Reply #323 on: April 28, 2019, 11:21:58 am »
« Edited: April 28, 2019, 12:01:58 pm by rc18 »

Big changes in the voting pattern compared to earlier. This is looking much better for left than right.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #324 on: April 28, 2019, 11:27:40 am »

18%(!) in Catalonia

Catalonia's turnout is ridiculous. Even higher than the regional election right after article 155!

Why would Catalonians be so energized to vote this year? And what would make previous non-voters choose now to finally vote?
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