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  Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez: July 22-25)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez: July 22-25)  (Read 34796 times)
mileslunn
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« Reply #350 on: April 28, 2019, 01:11:25 pm »

Excluding the Catalan separatist parties, wouldn't the smaller regionalist ones be more likely to support the left leaning bloc than right leaning?  Looks like it will be a mess and possibly another election later this year although I think smaller parties would be more likely to support left than right.  Right pretty much has to hit 176 or get very close to realistically govern.  And if they do hit that, do they have Popular Party or Citizens lead the way.  I would think Citizens would have a better chance of working with smaller parties than Popular Party.

Likewise if PSOE + Citizens have majority is there any chance Citizens will reverse their cordon sanitaire as there will probably a lot of pressure including from the EU for the two to work together since both are the most pro-EU.
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jeron
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« Reply #351 on: April 28, 2019, 01:13:16 pm »

LEFT: 158--166
RIGHT: 153-160
PSOE-C's: 164-170

*Prays for third option*



The third option is probably the best, but unfortuantely it has been excluded by Ciudadanos.
If this is the actual result a PSOE/Podemos coalition with support of regional parties seems most likely
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mileslunn
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« Reply #352 on: April 28, 2019, 01:15:09 pm »

LEFT: 158--166
RIGHT: 153-160
PSOE-C's: 164-170

*Prays for third option*



The third option is probably the best, but unfortuantely it has been excluded by Ciudadanos.
If this is the actualiteit  a PSOE/Podemos coalition with support of regional parties seems most likely

If left forms I believe that will be good news for minimum wage workers as they promise a 22% hike.  Terrible though if you make over 150,000 Euros as your taxes will go up.  In fact my understanding is for those making over 300,000 Euros, if PSOE + Podemos tax plan goes through, top marginal rates will be over 50% in 2/3 of Spain (sort of like what we have now in Canada for good or ill, and this tax hike wildly popular with most but hated by rich and economist mixed on idea).
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tack50
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« Reply #353 on: April 28, 2019, 01:15:15 pm »

Here's Electomania's "Exit Panel" for what it's worth. Definitely an outlier compared to everyone else

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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #354 on: April 28, 2019, 01:15:50 pm »

Excluding the Catalan separatist parties, wouldn't the smaller regionalist ones be more likely to support the left leaning bloc than right leaning?  Looks like it will be a mess and possibly another election later this year although I think smaller parties would be more likely to support left than right.  Right pretty much has to hit 176 or get very close to realistically govern.  And if they do hit that, do they have Popular Party or Citizens lead the way.  I would think Citizens would have a better chance of working with smaller parties than Popular Party.

The only way the right gets into power with these numbers is a new election, which isn't implausible given numbers like this. Assuming the accuracy of the polls, it pretty much comes down to whether Sanchez/Iglesias can at least coax the ERC and Bildu into a vote and supply agreement or whether Spain once again suffers new elections. Apart from the regionalism/separatism, there is a clear majority from the left here. The problem is that the separatism thing is a big thing.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #355 on: April 28, 2019, 01:15:56 pm »

How long till the results start to come through? I'm not sure if I can bear another late night watching early hope turn into crushing despair... Smiley
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #356 on: April 28, 2019, 01:17:14 pm »

How long till the results start to come through? I'm not sure if I can bear another late night watching early hope turn into crushing despair... Smiley

An hour.  I feel, I really feel, your pain.
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Mike88
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« Reply #357 on: April 28, 2019, 01:17:41 pm »

How long till the results start to come through? I'm not sure if I can bear another late night watching early hope turn into crushing despair... Smiley

In the next minutes, i think results will start coming in. By 22:00h, the overall image will be clear.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #358 on: April 28, 2019, 01:18:23 pm »

I was watching the "exit polls" on Spanish RTE TV, but was not sure if those were exit polls or something conducted over the previous days ?

Does anyone know if these are proper exit polls done today, or in the last days ?
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #359 on: April 28, 2019, 01:18:50 pm »

How long till the results start to come through? I'm not sure if I can bear another late night watching early hope turn into crushing despair... Smiley

In the next minutes, i think results will start coming in. By 22:00h, the overall image will be clear.

I think they said they won't release data until the Canaries are done voting.
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Mike88
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« Reply #360 on: April 28, 2019, 01:19:30 pm »

I was watching the "exit polls" on Spanish RTE TV, but was not sure if those were exit polls or something conducted over the previous days ?

Does anyone know if these are proper exit polls done today, or in the last days ?

No exit polls. They are all tracking poll from the last few days.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #361 on: April 28, 2019, 01:19:34 pm »

I was watching the "exit polls" on Spanish RTE TV, but was not sure if those were exit polls or something conducted over the previous days ?

Does anyone know if these are proper exit polls done today, or in the last days ?

Three day tracking polls. I have no clue why but Spain doesn't do exit polling.
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Sestak
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« Reply #362 on: April 28, 2019, 01:19:47 pm »

How long till the results start to come through? I'm not sure if I can bear another late night watching early hope turn into crushing despair... Smiley

In the next minutes, i think results will start coming in. By 22:00h, the overall image will be clear.

I think they said they won't release data until the Canaries are done voting.

Yeah, so another 40 mins.
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Rethliopuks
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« Reply #363 on: April 28, 2019, 01:20:04 pm »

How long till the results start to come through? I'm not sure if I can bear another late night watching early hope turn into crushing despair... Smiley

In the next minutes, i think results will start coming in. By 22:00h, the overall image will be clear.

Isn't it that you won't get anything until Canary Islands close at 21.00, even though votes would start to be counted?
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tack50
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« Reply #364 on: April 28, 2019, 01:20:38 pm »

Excluding the Catalan separatist parties, wouldn't the smaller regionalist ones be more likely to support the left leaning bloc than right leaning?  Looks like it will be a mess and possibly another election later this year although I think smaller parties would be more likely to support left than right.  Right pretty much has to hit 176 or get very close to realistically govern.  And if they do hit that, do they have Popular Party or Citizens lead the way.  I would think Citizens would have a better chance of working with smaller parties than Popular Party.

Likewise if PSOE + Citizens have majority is there any chance Citizens will reverse their cordon sanitaire as there will probably a lot of pressure including from the EU for the two to work together since both are the most pro-EU.

The only proper regionalist parties that will apparently make it will be CC and UPN

UPN contested the election alongside PP and Cs as Navarra Suma so I doubt it.

CC hates Podemos so it's also very unlikely, though slightly less likely. CC is a Marxist party in the Groucho sense: "these are our principles, if you don't like them, we have others"; and they did abstain on Sánchez's confidence vote.

However I would not count on them
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #365 on: April 28, 2019, 01:20:53 pm »

Hmm, let's wait for the actual vote count then ...
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parochial boy
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« Reply #366 on: April 28, 2019, 01:21:44 pm »
« Edited: April 28, 2019, 01:25:28 pm by parochial boy »

How long till the results start to come through? I'm not sure if I can bear another late night watching early hope turn into crushing despair... Smiley

In the next minutes, i think results will start coming in. By 22:00h, the overall image will be clear.

I think they said they won't release data until the Canaries are done voting.

So hopefully we get a proper dump then, rather than freaking out about 6 tiny random municipalities in Castilla where VOX have done really well
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Kamala Harris is the REAL DEAL
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« Reply #367 on: April 28, 2019, 01:22:20 pm »

Excluding the Catalan separatist parties, wouldn't the smaller regionalist ones be more likely to support the left leaning bloc than right leaning?  Looks like it will be a mess and possibly another election later this year although I think smaller parties would be more likely to support left than right.  Right pretty much has to hit 176 or get very close to realistically govern.  And if they do hit that, do they have Popular Party or Citizens lead the way.  I would think Citizens would have a better chance of working with smaller parties than Popular Party.

Likewise if PSOE + Citizens have majority is there any chance Citizens will reverse their cordon sanitaire as there will probably a lot of pressure including from the EU for the two to work together since both are the most pro-EU.

The only proper regionalist parties that will apparently make it will be CC and UPN

UPN contested the election alongside PP and Cs as Navarra Suma so I doubt it.

CC hates Podemos so it's also very unlikely, though slightly less likely. CC is a Marxist party in the Groucho sense: "these are our principles, if you don't like them, we have others"; and they did abstain on Sánchez's confidence vote.

However I would not count on them
But CC-C's-PSOE is reasonably likely, no?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #368 on: April 28, 2019, 01:23:39 pm »

How long till the results start to come through? I'm not sure if I can bear another late night watching early hope turn into crushing despair... Smiley

In the next minutes, i think results will start coming in. By 22:00h, the overall image will be clear.

I think they said they won't release data until the Canaries are done voting.

So hopefully we get a proper dump then, rather than freaking out about 6 tiny randome municipalities in Castilla here VOX have done really well

Yeah their counting right now, but results bomb will come at 21.
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tack50
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« Reply #369 on: April 28, 2019, 01:27:15 pm »

Election day poll for the Valencian regional election. Unlike the general election ones, this one is VERY different from the earlier polls, so be ready for surprises

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jeron
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« Reply #370 on: April 28, 2019, 01:27:38 pm »

Excluding the Catalan separatist parties, wouldn't the smaller regionalist ones be more likely to support the left leaning bloc than right leaning?  Looks like it will be a mess and possibly another election later this year although I think smaller parties would be more likely to support left than right.  Right pretty much has to hit 176 or get very close to realistically govern.  And if they do hit that, do they have Popular Party or Citizens lead the way.  I would think Citizens would have a better chance of working with smaller parties than Popular Party.

Likewise if PSOE + Citizens have majority is there any chance Citizens will reverse their cordon sanitaire as there will probably a lot of pressure including from the EU for the two to work together since both are the most pro-EU.

The only proper regionalist parties that will apparently make it will be CC and UPN

UPN contested the election alongside PP and Cs as Navarra Suma so I doubt it.

CC hates Podemos so it's also very unlikely, though slightly less likely. CC is a Marxist party in the Groucho sense: "these are our principles, if you don't like them, we have others"; and they did abstain on Sánchez's confidence vote.

However I would not count on them
But CC-C's-PSOE is reasonably likely, no?

No, Cs has repeatedly excluded a coalition with PSOE!
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Mike88
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« Reply #371 on: April 28, 2019, 01:27:41 pm »

PP has lost Galicia for the first time ever, according to the polls.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #372 on: April 28, 2019, 01:28:12 pm »

Election day poll for the Valencian regional election. Unlike the general election ones, this one is VERY different from the earlier polls, so be ready for surprises
In which direction?
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tack50
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« Reply #373 on: April 28, 2019, 01:28:29 pm »

Excluding the Catalan separatist parties, wouldn't the smaller regionalist ones be more likely to support the left leaning bloc than right leaning?  Looks like it will be a mess and possibly another election later this year although I think smaller parties would be more likely to support left than right.  Right pretty much has to hit 176 or get very close to realistically govern.  And if they do hit that, do they have Popular Party or Citizens lead the way.  I would think Citizens would have a better chance of working with smaller parties than Popular Party.

Likewise if PSOE + Citizens have majority is there any chance Citizens will reverse their cordon sanitaire as there will probably a lot of pressure including from the EU for the two to work together since both are the most pro-EU.

The only proper regionalist parties that will apparently make it will be CC and UPN

UPN contested the election alongside PP and Cs as Navarra Suma so I doubt it.

CC hates Podemos so it's also very unlikely, though slightly less likely. CC is a Marxist party in the Groucho sense: "these are our principles, if you don't like them, we have others"; and they did abstain on Sánchez's confidence vote.

However I would not count on them
But CC-C's-PSOE is reasonably likely, no?

No, because Cs is very against that. If Cs makes a 180 then yeah, it's possible; but I think Cs has gone too far to justify a 180
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tack50
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« Reply #374 on: April 28, 2019, 01:32:45 pm »

Election day poll for the Valencian regional election. Unlike the general election ones, this one is VERY different from the earlier polls, so be ready for surprises
In which direction?

Compromís (Valencian nationalists) much higher than expected
Cs MUCH lower than expected (like half as much)
Vox overperforming
PP and PSOE slightly underperforming
Podemos slightly overperforming
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