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  Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)  (Read 69249 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #375 on: April 28, 2019, 01:33:58 pm »

PP has lost Galicia for the first time ever, according to the polls.

Expect the map to be near 100% red considering these vote splits, but the block and seat map will be more telling.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #376 on: April 28, 2019, 01:36:49 pm »

From what we have now, it seems as if right-wing voters moved further right (and the right-wing parties all moved right) but moderate voters opted for the PSOE after all, with left-wing UP/PSOE swing voters coming home for UP after Sanchez' debate failure.

If (big if) this is accurate, C's are probably to blame for losing the election for the right by being way too open about how nationalist and right-wing they actually are. They shouldn't even be competing for voters with PP so much, they should also be competing with PSOE and then take their seats to the right.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #377 on: April 28, 2019, 01:37:04 pm »

anyone have a link to results?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #378 on: April 28, 2019, 01:37:37 pm »

Election day poll for the Valencian regional election. Unlike the general election ones, this one is VERY different from the earlier polls, so be ready for surprises



BTW IMOP/COPEs Valencia exit poll has Compromis leading by .5%, but lower in seats.
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jeron
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« Reply #379 on: April 28, 2019, 01:37:43 pm »

Excluding the Catalan separatist parties, wouldn't the smaller regionalist ones be more likely to support the left leaning bloc than right leaning?  Looks like it will be a mess and possibly another election later this year although I think smaller parties would be more likely to support left than right.  Right pretty much has to hit 176 or get very close to realistically govern.  And if they do hit that, do they have Popular Party or Citizens lead the way.  I would think Citizens would have a better chance of working with smaller parties than Popular Party.

Likewise if PSOE + Citizens have majority is there any chance Citizens will reverse their cordon sanitaire as there will probably a lot of pressure including from the EU for the two to work together since both are the most pro-EU.

The only proper regionalist parties that will apparently make it will be CC and UPN

UPN contested the election alongside PP and Cs as Navarra Suma so I doubt it.

CC hates Podemos so it's also very unlikely, though slightly less likely. CC is a Marxist party in the Groucho sense: "these are our principles, if you don't like them, we have others"; and they did abstain on Sánchez's confidence vote.

However I would not count on them

Well, Compromis would suppport PSOE/Podemos of course but they only have one seat in this poll. And PNV (Basque nationalists) supported the PSOE government as well
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #380 on: April 28, 2019, 01:39:00 pm »


I posted them earlier today (first results should come in ca. 20 minutes):

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #381 on: April 28, 2019, 01:39:43 pm »


https://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/generales.html

https://www.resultados.eleccionesgenerales19.es/Congreso/Total-nacional/0/es

Everyones tied at 0 right now, but results are being counted. There is an embargo for 20 more minutes until the Canaries polls close, and then there will be a results bomb. 
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parochial boy
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« Reply #382 on: April 28, 2019, 01:40:54 pm »

Excluding the Catalan separatist parties, wouldn't the smaller regionalist ones be more likely to support the left leaning bloc than right leaning?  Looks like it will be a mess and possibly another election later this year although I think smaller parties would be more likely to support left than right.  Right pretty much has to hit 176 or get very close to realistically govern.  And if they do hit that, do they have Popular Party or Citizens lead the way.  I would think Citizens would have a better chance of working with smaller parties than Popular Party.

Likewise if PSOE + Citizens have majority is there any chance Citizens will reverse their cordon sanitaire as there will probably a lot of pressure including from the EU for the two to work together since both are the most pro-EU.

The only proper regionalist parties that will apparently make it will be CC and UPN

UPN contested the election alongside PP and Cs as Navarra Suma so I doubt it.

CC hates Podemos so it's also very unlikely, though slightly less likely. CC is a Marxist party in the Groucho sense: "these are our principles, if you don't like them, we have others"; and they did abstain on Sánchez's confidence vote.

However I would not count on them

Well, Compromis would suppport PSOE/Podemos of course but they only have one seat in this poll. And PNV (Basque nationalists) supported the PSOE government as well

Regional breakdowns of a national poll though. Not likely to be very accurate at that level.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #383 on: April 28, 2019, 01:42:55 pm »

From what we have now, it seems as if right-wing voters moved further right (and the right-wing parties all moved right) but moderate voters opted for the PSOE after all, with left-wing UP/PSOE swing voters coming home for UP after Sanchez' debate failure.

If (big if) this is accurate, C's are probably to blame for losing the election for the right by being way too open about how nationalist and right-wing they actually are. They shouldn't even be competing for voters with PP so much, they should also be competing with PSOE and then take their seats to the right.

I agree. But I also think that both Rivera and typical Cs voters are a lot more right wing than people normally think. It's not a centrist party. They certainly could become that and pick off PSOE voters, but that could risk bleeding voters to the PP.

The closest analog I can think of is Kulanu in Israel. They could theoretically move left, but there isn't any benefit to the party itself even though it could expand the bloc.
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tack50
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« Reply #384 on: April 28, 2019, 01:43:27 pm »


https://www.resultados.eleccionesgenerales19.es/Congreso/Total-nacional/0/es

Don't expect anything until 15 minutes from now though
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #385 on: April 28, 2019, 01:44:08 pm »

Election day poll for the Valencian regional election. Unlike the general election ones, this one is VERY different from the earlier polls, so be ready for surprises



BTW IMOP/COPEs Valencia exit poll has Compromis leading by .5%, but lower in seats.

Is compromis more leftist than PSOE?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #386 on: April 28, 2019, 01:44:17 pm »
« Edited: April 28, 2019, 01:53:57 pm by Oryxslayer »

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox

Melila goes PP

Extramadura
5 PSOE
2 PP
2 Vox
1 C's

Galicia
9-10 PSOE
8 PP
2-3 Podemos
2 C's
1Vox

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jeron
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« Reply #387 on: April 28, 2019, 01:44:30 pm »



If (big if) this is accurate, C's are probably to blame for losing the election for the right by being way too open about how nationalist and right-wing they actually are. They shouldn't even be competing for voters with PP so much, they should also be competing with PSOE and then take their seats to the right.

True, but it is hard to compete with PSOE for centrist voters when Cs govern with Vox in Andalucia and seem to want to govern with Vox nationally.
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tack50
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« Reply #388 on: April 28, 2019, 01:47:17 pm »

Map of the election according to IMOP-Cadena COPE's exit poll



Probably hilariously inaccurate, but worth sharing. Interesting to see that Vox wins only 1 province but that said province is not Almería but Valencia!
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DavidB.
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« Reply #389 on: April 28, 2019, 01:47:44 pm »

If (big if) this is accurate, C's are probably to blame for losing the election for the right by being way too open about how nationalist and right-wing they actually are. They shouldn't even be competing for voters with PP so much, they should also be competing with PSOE and then take their seats to the right.
True, but it is hard to compete with PSOE for centrist voters when Cs govern with Vox in Andalucia and seem to want to govern with Vox nationally.
Yes, so they should have distanced themselves more from that impression.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #390 on: April 28, 2019, 01:48:46 pm »

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox


Results in Madrid seem big deal for left as usually it votes right.  Ceuta going Vox is no surprise and I suspect they will win Melilla too.  That is ground zero for illegal immigration so makes a lot of sense.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #391 on: April 28, 2019, 01:50:48 pm »

The big catch from the Gad3 seat projection has to be Galicia. Left block has more seats there then Right.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #392 on: April 28, 2019, 01:52:24 pm »

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox

Melila goes PP

Extramadura
5 PSOE
2 PP
2 Vox
1 C's

Galicia
9-10 PSOE
8 PP
2-3 Podemos
2 C's
1Vox



I have no clue what is happening in Castle and Leon, which is Spain's Catholic and right wing heartland. Madrid also looks surprisingly poor for Vox, where they were expected to do quote well.

Also, as I expected, the Catalonian turnout surge did end up helping the Socialists perhaps more than anyone else in the region.
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jeron
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« Reply #393 on: April 28, 2019, 01:52:31 pm »

The big catch from the Gad3 seat projection has to be Galicia. Left block has more seats there then Right.

That would be disastrous for PP
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DavidB.
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« Reply #394 on: April 28, 2019, 01:53:18 pm »

Wonder what this means for Casado.
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tack50
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« Reply #395 on: April 28, 2019, 01:53:54 pm »

The big catch from the Gad3 seat projection has to be Galicia. Left block has more seats there then Right.

Not that surprising. From my analysis I did a while back, the left and the right have been roughly tied in Galicia since the early 00s.

However, it didn't appear that way because PP was united (and still is for the most part) while the left was split between BNG and PSOE.

It's not even the first time it happens; in 2004 the left and the right tied in Galicia and in 2008 the left won by 1 seat (11 for PP; 10 for PSOE and 2 for BNG)
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Skye
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« Reply #396 on: April 28, 2019, 01:55:15 pm »

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox

Melila goes PP

Extramadura
5 PSOE
2 PP
2 Vox
1 C's

Galicia
9-10 PSOE
8 PP
2-3 Podemos
2 C's
1Vox



I have no clue what is happening in Castle and Leon, which is Spain's Catholic and right wing heartland. Madrid also looks surprisingly poor for Vox, where they were expected to do quote well.

Also, as I expected, the Catalonian turnout surge did end up helping the Socialists perhaps more than anyone else in the region.

What do you mean? The right seems to be doing fine in Castile and Leon.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #397 on: April 28, 2019, 01:55:50 pm »

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox


Results in Madrid seem big deal for left as usually it votes right.  Ceuta going Vox is no surprise and I suspect they will win Melilla too.  That is ground zero for illegal immigration so makes a lot of sense.

Can someone explain why two cities in Africa are enthusiastic supporters of the party that is campaigning against Africans? It seems that if Africans creep you out maybe, you know, Africa is not the best place to live.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #398 on: April 28, 2019, 01:58:13 pm »

Wonder what this means for Casado.

It seemed like a dumb move in the first place for PP to chase him to the right. It didn't endear the far right and it alienated everyone else.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #399 on: April 28, 2019, 01:59:13 pm »

Time for the votes to come in !

I guess ~28 million votes were cast, or ca. 76% turnout (+9%).
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