Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:08:51 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 12 13 14 15 16 [17] 18 19 20 21 22 ... 89
Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021  (Read 195043 times)
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #400 on: April 28, 2019, 02:00:23 PM »

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox

Melila goes PP

Extramadura
5 PSOE
2 PP
2 Vox
1 C's

Galicia
9-10 PSOE
8 PP
2-3 Podemos
2 C's
1Vox



I have no clue what is happening in Castle and Leon, which is Spain's Catholic and right wing heartland. Madrid also looks surprisingly poor for Vox, where they were expected to do quote well.

Also, as I expected, the Catalonian turnout surge did end up helping the Socialists perhaps more than anyone else in the region.

What do you mean? The right seems to be doing fine in Castile and Leon.

The PP and PSOE are tied and Vox only nets 2 seats. Given the usual dominance of the PP there that is a really bad result for not only the PP but the whole rightist bloc.
Logged
Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,891
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #401 on: April 28, 2019, 02:00:34 PM »

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox


Results in Madrid seem big deal for left as usually it votes right.  Ceuta going Vox is no surprise and I suspect they will win Melilla too.  That is ground zero for illegal immigration so makes a lot of sense.

Can someone explain why two cities in Africa are enthusiastic supporters of the party that is campaigning against Africans? It seems that if Africans creep you out maybe, you know, Africa is not the best place to live.

On top of inmigration being a huge issue over there for obvious reasons, they also have very high military populations
Logged
Diouf
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,497
Denmark
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #402 on: April 28, 2019, 02:02:10 PM »

Now that we have seen Hello Kitty in Gran Canaria, the results can officially start coming in!
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,612
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #403 on: April 28, 2019, 02:02:14 PM »

Votedump seems disproportionately from Basque Country.
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #404 on: April 28, 2019, 02:02:31 PM »

4.2% in:

28.4% PSOE
19.0% PP
10.8% C's
11.5% UP
  7.9% Vox
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #405 on: April 28, 2019, 02:02:50 PM »

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox


Results in Madrid seem big deal for left as usually it votes right.  Ceuta going Vox is no surprise and I suspect they will win Melilla too.  That is ground zero for illegal immigration so makes a lot of sense.

Can someone explain why two cities in Africa are enthusiastic supporters of the party that is campaigning against Africans? It seems that if Africans creep you out maybe, you know, Africa is not the best place to live.

They are Spaniards living on the edge of North Africa, not "Africans".

Right. But they are living in autonomous Spanish cities in Africa.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,797
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #406 on: April 28, 2019, 02:06:22 PM »

4.2% in:

28.4% PSOE
19.0% PP
10.8% C's
11.5% UP
  7.9% Vox

What part of the country are these from?  It seems PSOE and PP getting about what polls suggested, but other three especially Vox way under.  Off course depending on what part of the country these are from may not be representative at all.
Logged
parochial boy
parochial_boy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,114


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #407 on: April 28, 2019, 02:07:47 PM »

4.2% in:

28.4% PSOE
19.0% PP
10.8% C's
11.5% UP
  7.9% Vox

What part of the country are these from?  It seems PSOE and PP getting about what polls suggested, but other three especially Vox way under.  Off course depending on what part of the country these are from may not be representative at all.

All over, but Basques, Aragon, Castilla y Leon and Asturias have counted th most
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #408 on: April 28, 2019, 02:08:33 PM »

Vox with a whopping one seat in Almeria right now.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #409 on: April 28, 2019, 02:09:11 PM »

4.2% in:

28.4% PSOE
19.0% PP
10.8% C's
11.5% UP
  7.9% Vox

What part of the country are these from?  It seems PSOE and PP getting about what polls suggested, but other three especially Vox way under.  Off course depending on what part of the country these are from may not be representative at all.

 From El pais. Grey is Separatist. Looks like Aragon is counting the fastest.
Logged
Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,891
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #410 on: April 28, 2019, 02:10:07 PM »

Votedump seems disproportionately from Basque Country.

Indeed. With PNV at 7% and Bildu at 4.5% that's pretty much a given. The Basque Country is pretty fast at counting votes
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #411 on: April 28, 2019, 02:10:14 PM »

It looks as if the "exit polls" were mostly correct.

I don't see VOX overperforming the polls based on these early numbers and they will likely end up with ca. 10-12% in the end.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #412 on: April 28, 2019, 02:13:09 PM »

As of this moment, PSOE+C's has 175. Expect that to change.

Basque County is at 34% Counted, so yeah, votes are biased towards that party of the county right now.
Logged
jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 662
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #413 on: April 28, 2019, 02:14:30 PM »

Votedump seems disproportionately from Basque Country.

Indeed. With PNV at 7% and Bildu at 4.5% that's pretty much a given. The Basque Country is pretty fast at counting votes

Basque country has already counted one third of the vote
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #414 on: April 28, 2019, 02:15:51 PM »

With 10.56% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.53%
PP       17.42%
C        12.18%
UP       11.90%
VOX      8.59%
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #415 on: April 28, 2019, 02:16:11 PM »

I just realized that I made a major mistake with my prediction for VOX at 16-17% Spain-wide ...

VOX is virtually non-existant in the population-rich Catalunya and the Basque country, which is dragging down their national share of course. VOX would have needed 20% in the rest of Spain, if they are non-existant in these regions.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,797
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #416 on: April 28, 2019, 02:16:22 PM »

I noticed only 325 seats are given, are the other 25 having no results is that why?  For left I show 156 so 20 seats shy, while right is 135 which is 41 seats shy so won't both of those numbers go up as those shows a lot in neither group?
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #417 on: April 28, 2019, 02:17:23 PM »

I noticed only 325 seats are given, are the other 25 having no results is that why?  For left I show 156 so 20 seats shy, while right is 135 which is 41 seats shy so won't both of those numbers go up as those shows a lot in neither group?

Use the el Pais site.
Logged
jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 662
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #418 on: April 28, 2019, 02:17:55 PM »

Vox with a whopping one seat in Almeria right now.

And PSOE in the lead in Ceuta
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,931
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #419 on: April 28, 2019, 02:18:03 PM »

With 10.56% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.53%
PP       17.42%
C        12.18%
UP       11.90%
VOX      8.59%

So so far we're looking at an overperformance for the Socialists and underperformance for the far-right.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #420 on: April 28, 2019, 02:19:11 PM »

With 10.56% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.53%
PP       17.42%
C        12.18%
UP       11.90%
VOX      8.59%

So so far we're looking at an overperformance for the Socialists and underperformance for the far-right.

C usually gets stronger as the count goes on so I think C will increase the most from here.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #421 on: April 28, 2019, 02:22:09 PM »

Almost 15% in and the left has 164 to the right's 135.

Vox is getting embarrassed.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #422 on: April 28, 2019, 02:23:52 PM »

With 17.01% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.69%
PP       16.99%
C        13.05%
UP       11.98%
VOX      8.97%
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,219
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #423 on: April 28, 2019, 02:24:14 PM »

Almost 15% in and the left has 164 to the right's 135.

Vox is getting embarrassed.

And PP!! The margin between them and C's is narrowing, and UP is less than 2% behind them.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #424 on: April 28, 2019, 02:25:24 PM »

Almost 15% in and the left has 164 to the right's 135.

Vox is getting embarrassed.

And PP!! The margin between them and C's is narrowing...

PP was getting embarrassed the moment they chose Casado. Vox was at least expected to do better.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 12 13 14 15 16 [17] 18 19 20 21 22 ... 89  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 11 queries.