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  Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)  (Read 68808 times)
Mike88
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« Reply #425 on: April 28, 2019, 02:24:14 pm »

Almost 15% in and the left has 164 to the right's 135.

Vox is getting embarrassed.

And PP!! The margin between them and C's is narrowing, and UP is less than 2% behind them.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #426 on: April 28, 2019, 02:25:24 pm »

Almost 15% in and the left has 164 to the right's 135.

Vox is getting embarrassed.

And PP!! The margin between them and C's is narrowing...

PP was getting embarrassed the moment they chose Casado. Vox was at least expected to do better.
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jeron
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« Reply #427 on: April 28, 2019, 02:26:05 pm »

With 10.56% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.53%
PP       17.42%
C        12.18%
UP       11.90%
VOX      8.59%

So so far we're looking at an overperformance for the Socialists and underperformance for the far-right.

Yes, good results for PSOE in Andalucia and Extremadura
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mileslunn
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« Reply #428 on: April 28, 2019, 02:27:24 pm »

Almost 15% in and the left has 164 to the right's 135.

Vox is getting embarrassed.

Actually not totally surprised, polls almost always mess up on the far right, either they outperform big time or underperform big time.  Usually when there is a real threat of them forming government they underperform while when not over.  Examples of underperforming are France 2017, Netherlands 2017, Austria 2017, and Sweden 2018 while overperformance are Germany 2017, UK 2015, Italy 2018, Finland 2019, Norway 2017.  I think the threat of them holding balance of power might have led to some last minute pullback.  A lot who vote far right do so more as a protest vote to send a message to the elites and establishment.  Otherwise they don't actually want them to win, they just hope a strong showing will force government to change direction.
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jeron
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« Reply #429 on: April 28, 2019, 02:27:28 pm »

Almost 15% in and the left has 164 to the right's 135.

Vox is getting embarrassed.

And PP!! The margin between them and C's is narrowing...

PP was getting embarrassed the moment they chose Casado. Vox was at least expected to do better.

PP forgot that most votes are to be won in the center, not on the fringes
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #430 on: April 28, 2019, 02:27:45 pm »

Just reminding you Guys that madrid sits at 6.26%. There is a lot still up in the air, so lets not bank everything on Basque County and Aragon.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #431 on: April 28, 2019, 02:28:25 pm »

Over 20% in and the left has 167 to the right's 139. Cs are actually doing fairly well. PP and Vox are definitely not.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #432 on: April 28, 2019, 02:29:13 pm »

PP-Cs-Vox seem to lose seats compared to PP-Cs in 2016 in almost all regions. It's going to be PSOE-UP with support from regionalists.

PP forgot that most votes are to be won in the center, not on the fringes
Exactly, and so did C's.
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jaichind
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« Reply #433 on: April 28, 2019, 02:29:31 pm »

I still think PP-C-VOX vote share will end up beating PSOE-UP by something like 3% but it will not be enough to stop PSOE due to mal-distribution of votes on the Right.    Oh well.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #434 on: April 28, 2019, 02:29:42 pm »

Almost 15% in and the left has 164 to the right's 135.

Vox is getting embarrassed.

And PP!! The margin between them and C's is narrowing...

PP was getting embarrassed the moment they chose Casado. Vox was at least expected to do better.

PP forgot that most votes are to be won in the center, not on the fringes

Is that true anymore.  A lot have been saying centre is hollowing out as we are seeing greater polarization.  I know Spain is very different than US, but certainly in US at least and also some other European countries there is the idea you win by appealing to your base.  Many have claimed social democrats crashing in most of Europe is due to Third way and that Corbyn despite losing but doing much better than most social democratic parties in Europe is proof you don't win through the centre.  BTW I still think elections are won in the centre, but there are a lot of talking heads out there that claim the centre is gone and you win by appealing to base so maybe they listened to those.
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jaichind
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« Reply #435 on: April 28, 2019, 02:30:27 pm »

With 23.02% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.72%
PP       16.87%
C        13.57%
UP       11.99%
VOX      9.22%
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« Reply #436 on: April 28, 2019, 02:30:47 pm »

But I thought Vox would emerge to lead the right wing bloc to a majority government?

Total fail lmao
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parochial boy
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« Reply #437 on: April 28, 2019, 02:31:34 pm »

PP-Cs-Vox seem to lose seats compared to PP-Cs in 2016 in almost all regions. It's going to be PSOE-UP with support from regionalists.

PP forgot that most votes are to be won in the center, not on the fringes
Exactly, and so did C's.

It's probably too soon but

Saving this for the day PP-Cs-Vox is formed Tongue

Wink
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mileslunn
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« Reply #438 on: April 28, 2019, 02:31:41 pm »

Just reminding you Guys that madrid sits at 6.26%. There is a lot still up in the air, so lets not bank everything on Basque County and Aragon.

True although Madrid seems to be swinging quite a bit to the left so far.  Off course it depends what part the votes are coming from.  I am guessing the city centre is fairly left wing while suburbs and surrounding rural areas are more right wing, at least that is the trend in most parts of the world.  If Madrid swings heavily to the left would not be surprised, urban/rural divides seem to be growing everyone with traditional left wing rural areas swinging rightwards while traditional right wing urban areas swinging leftwards.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #439 on: April 28, 2019, 02:32:25 pm »

I still think PP-C-VOX vote share will end up beating PSOE-UP by something like 3% but it will not be enough to stop PSOE due to mal-distribution of votes on the Right.    Oh well.

Yeah, seat distribution in Spain makes zero sense to me. It's almost as nonsensical as Australia. Can someone explain very briefly how this works? Bildu should have like 10 seats right now in a strictly proportionap system.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #440 on: April 28, 2019, 02:33:20 pm »

Hahaha, will still happen! Just a bit of delay Wink
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Mike88
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« Reply #441 on: April 28, 2019, 02:33:25 pm »

PP is falling every time the count is updated. Normally they rise as the vote is counted. I wouldn't be surprised if PP falls to 4th place in terms of votes.
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jaichind
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« Reply #442 on: April 28, 2019, 02:33:37 pm »

I still think PP-C-VOX vote share will end up beating PSOE-UP by something like 3% but it will not be enough to stop PSOE due to mal-distribution of votes on the Right.    Oh well.

Yeah, seat distribution in Spain makes zero sense to me. It's almost as nonsensical as Australia. Can someone explain very briefly how this works? Bildu should have like 10 seats right now in a strictly proportionap system.

D'Hondt on a regional basis.
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skbl17
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« Reply #443 on: April 28, 2019, 02:33:58 pm »

Even though such a combination seems unlikely, PSOE-Cs have a majority at the moment.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #444 on: April 28, 2019, 02:36:18 pm »

With 26% in the left is at 166 and the right at 139. PP down to 66 and Vox up to 23.
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jaichind
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« Reply #445 on: April 28, 2019, 02:36:20 pm »

With 29.60% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.80%
PP       16.76%
C        13.97%
UP       11.98%
VOX      9.40%
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DavidB.
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« Reply #446 on: April 28, 2019, 02:37:37 pm »

29.6% in

PSOE 29.8% - 132
PP 16.8% - 65
Cs 14% - 51
UP 12% - 33
Vox 9.4% - 23
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kaoras
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« Reply #447 on: April 28, 2019, 02:38:52 pm »

Guys, you need to add "ECP- Guanyem el canvi" to UP total, it is its catalonian branch
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #448 on: April 28, 2019, 02:39:55 pm »

The way this vote count is progressing, VOX will end up with ca. 11.5% to 12.0% and in a tight race for 4th place with Podemos.

PP is now almost cut in half.
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jeron
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« Reply #449 on: April 28, 2019, 02:40:09 pm »

Guys, you need to add "ECP- Guanyem el canvi" to UP total, it is its catalonian branch

Exactly, Podemos now on 39
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