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  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Eli Gorbinsky)
  Spanish elections and politics II (investiture failed, countdown for elections)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (investiture failed, countdown for elections)  (Read 38955 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #450 on: April 28, 2019, 02:40:26 pm »

Guys, you need to add "ECP- Guanyem el canvi" to UP total, it is its catalonian branch

Oops .. forgot about that
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #451 on: April 28, 2019, 02:40:31 pm »

At almost 30 percent the left counted is only four seats from a majority. I suspect that Madrid and Catalonia are starting to come in more quickly now.
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jaichind
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« Reply #452 on: April 28, 2019, 02:43:01 pm »

With 36.65% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.76%
PP       16.72%
C        14.36%
UP       14.03%
VOX      9.59%
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parochial boy
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« Reply #453 on: April 28, 2019, 02:44:08 pm »

PSOE, Podemos, PNV currently on 176. That would mean no need for any of the independentists...
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #454 on: April 28, 2019, 02:44:46 pm »

Counting Bias

Andalusia: 26.8%
Aragon 47.6%
Asturias 45.2%
Balares 23.7%
Cantabria 35%
la Mancha 34.7%
Cast&leon 53.5%
Catalan 25.5%
Valencia 23.7%
Extremadura 35%
galicia 40.5%
Madrid 14.9%
basque: 68.8%
Murcia 39.2%

So Andalusia still has votes for Vox and Psoe, Madrid for the right, and valancia/Catalan for Psoe/podemos/C's.

Its going to be PSOE+C's or PSOE+Podemos(+Minor) Govt. 
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #455 on: April 28, 2019, 02:44:53 pm »

Only 15% of Madrid is in. The left has 18 seats to the right's 17 in the region.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #456 on: April 28, 2019, 02:45:13 pm »

PSOE, Podemos, PNV currently on 176. That would mean no need for any of the independentists...

remember PNV is getting overpolled right now.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #457 on: April 28, 2019, 02:46:46 pm »

The Muslim CpM is currently leading in Melilla
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #458 on: April 28, 2019, 02:47:07 pm »

PSOE, Podemos, PNV currently on 176. That would mean no need for any of the independentists...

Plus Compromis' seat.
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kaoras
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« Reply #459 on: April 28, 2019, 02:48:13 pm »

PSOE, Podemos, PNV currently on 176. That would mean no need for any of the independentists...

remember PNV is getting overpolled right now.
Doesn't matter for seat count
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parochial boy
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« Reply #460 on: April 28, 2019, 02:48:55 pm »

PSOE, Podemos, PNV currently on 176. That would mean no need for any of the independentists...

remember PNV is getting overpolled right now.

They'll stay on 6 - seats by constituency remember.

even with Madrid being underpolled, if the current breakdown in Madrid stays roughly the same, it won't make much difference to the seat totals

PSOE, Podemos, PNV currently on 176. That would mean no need for any of the independentists...

Plus Compromis' seat.

And the Cantabrian regionalists on one. Not a lot of room for maneouvre though
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mgop
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« Reply #461 on: April 28, 2019, 02:49:56 pm »

wonderful results, left wing government will be. pp commit suicide vmro style and "citizens" showed their true right wing colors so they will be completely gone on next election.
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kaoras
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« Reply #462 on: April 28, 2019, 02:52:18 pm »

The Muslim CpM is currently leading in Melilla

They always count muslim neighborhoods first. PSOE often appears winning the seat with little % counted and then is the usual PP landslide.

What will happen now with Vox irruption is anyone guess though.

Edit: and the same thing always happen in Ceuta.
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Mike88
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« Reply #463 on: April 28, 2019, 02:52:26 pm »

There is a tight race for 2nd place. The difference between PP, C's and UP is just bellow 2.7%.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #464 on: April 28, 2019, 02:59:26 pm »

Just over half of the vote in and PSOE+Podemos+Compromis is at 169. PNV would get them to 175.
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Vosem
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« Reply #465 on: April 28, 2019, 03:01:58 pm »

wonderful results, left wing government will be. pp commit suicide vmro style and "citizens" showed their true right wing colors so they will be completely gone on next election.

Cs is literally gaining massively compared with 2016 though??
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yeah_93
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« Reply #466 on: April 28, 2019, 03:02:56 pm »

I dunno, but these results seem pretty bad for the PP.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #467 on: April 28, 2019, 03:03:07 pm »

PSOE + C's coalition would be feasible but C's have ruled this out so I wonder if they regret doing this?
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« Reply #468 on: April 28, 2019, 03:04:14 pm »

C's may actually come in second here? lmao.

RIP PP if that happens.
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Velasco
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« Reply #469 on: April 28, 2019, 03:09:17 pm »

wonderful results, left wing government will be. pp commit suicide vmro style and "citizens" showed their true right wing colors so they will be completely gone on next election.

Cs is literally gaining massively compared with 2016 though??

Right now Cs is getting 15%, 2pp higher than 2016. So yes, oranges are gaining at the expense of the PP. However they are underperforming expectations and it's obvious the Cs turn to the right is giving the centre to the PSOE.

I guess Vox will reach 10% at the end of the night. 5% lower than Steve Bannon predicted.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #470 on: April 28, 2019, 03:09:18 pm »

PSOE+C's has majority, and PSOE has been loosing seats with the most recent dumps, putting PSOE+Podemos+PNV+Compromis+PRC+CCA/PNC at just 176. But if C's becomes the largest right wing party, the slim chance of the PSOE+C's govt becomes 0.
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Velasco
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« Reply #471 on: April 28, 2019, 03:12:29 pm »

PSOE+C's has majority, and PSOE has been loosing seats with the most recent dumps, putting PSOE+Podemos+PNV+Compromis+PRC+CCA/PNC at just 176. But if C's becomes the largest right wing party, the slim chance of the PSOE+C's govt becomes 0.

Possibly Albert Rivera became leader of the opposition  with his histrionic performance in the debates. It will be extremely interesting to watch the developments in the Spanish Right.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #472 on: April 28, 2019, 03:14:06 pm »

PSOE+C's has majority, and PSOE has been loosing seats with the most recent dumps, putting PSOE+Podemos+PNV+Compromis+PRC+CCA/PNC at just 176. But if C's becomes the largest right wing party, the slim chance of the PSOE+C's govt becomes 0.

I think you're forgetting Bildu, though. Politically they're not the best look for Sanchez, but they supported his confidence vote and are a left wing party. Right now they're at 5 seats.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #473 on: April 28, 2019, 03:16:44 pm »

Most recent dump, the PSOE+Podemos+Loyalist Minors now drops to 175. If PSOE want to build a pure left govt with the present numbers, they need the support of secessionists, either Catalan or Basque.

For this post, I count the Arab currently leading in Melilia as an outlier, and the seat will return to its traditional right when actual votes return.
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bigic
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« Reply #474 on: April 28, 2019, 03:20:04 pm »


I think you're forgetting Bildu, though. Politically they're not the best look for Sanchez, but they supported his confidence vote and are a left wing party. Right now they're at 5 seats.

Forget the no confidence vote - pretty much everybody except PP and Cs in the parliament supported that.
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