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August 18, 2019, 01:35:57 am
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  Spanish elections and politics II (investiture failed, countdown for elections)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (investiture failed, countdown for elections)  (Read 38571 times)
Velasco
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« Reply #475 on: April 28, 2019, 03:20:24 pm »

Results in Andalusia are revealing (76.5% reported)

PSOE 34.8% 25 seats
Cs 17.5% 11 seats
PP 17% 11 seats
UP 14.2% 9 seats
Vox 13.2% 5 seats

EDIT: count update gives PSOE 24 seats and Vox 6 seats
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #476 on: April 28, 2019, 03:22:29 pm »

Could someone link the results page? I'm having trouble finding it. Valencian regional results too if possible. Much thanks.
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #477 on: April 28, 2019, 03:24:50 pm »

Could someone link the results page? I'm having trouble finding it. Valencian regional results too if possible. Much thanks.

https://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2019/generales/congreso/
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #478 on: April 28, 2019, 03:25:13 pm »

Could someone link the results page? I'm having trouble finding it. Valencian regional results too if possible. Much thanks.

https://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2019/generales/congreso/

Thank you!
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #479 on: April 28, 2019, 03:27:19 pm »

Lol the stream I'm watching has PSOE and PP rallies both shown on screen...PP's is so quiet.
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #480 on: April 28, 2019, 03:29:42 pm »

Lol the stream I'm watching has PSOE and PP rallies both shown on screen...PP's is so quiet.

PP's is a funeral not a rally
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Sestak stands with Drag Queen Story Hour
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« Reply #481 on: April 28, 2019, 03:29:57 pm »

Stuff seems not to be moving anymore - looks like PP will hang on for second.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #482 on: April 28, 2019, 03:32:30 pm »

5th seat in Huelva remains incredibly close between UP and Vox and has been all evening.
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Velasco
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« Reply #483 on: April 28, 2019, 03:36:34 pm »

Catalonia (82.9% reported)

ERC 24.6% 15 seats
PSC-PSOE 23.3% 12 seats
ECP 14.9% 7 seats
JxCAT 12.1% 7 seats
Cs 11.5% 5 seats
PP 4.8% 1 seat
Vox 3.6% 1 seat
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DavidB.
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« Reply #484 on: April 28, 2019, 03:36:52 pm »

Question to our Spanish posters: do people vote tactically, i.e. they know their party (e.g. Vox) can't realistically lay claim to one of the three seats in their region so they vote for a bigger party in their bloc (e.g. PP)?
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #485 on: April 28, 2019, 03:44:35 pm »




Lol at this trending Soraya. I guess Casado is already dead, at least politically speaking.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #486 on: April 28, 2019, 03:46:00 pm »

With 79% in Ceuta in, it seems the right-wing vote is so split between PP and Vox that PSOE may actually gain the seat from PP. Perfect illustration of this election.
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Velasco
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« Reply #487 on: April 28, 2019, 03:46:24 pm »

Question to our Spanish posters: do people vote tactically, i.e. they know their party (e.g. Vox) can't realistically lay claim to one of the three seats in their region so they vote for a bigger party in their bloc (e.g. PP)?

People used to vote tactically in previous elections, back in the two-party system era. I guess the 2015 election put an end to that, although it's possible that some people in small-sized constituencies still vote in that way. It's too early to say in this election and at this moment I haven't seen all the provincial results.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #488 on: April 28, 2019, 03:50:48 pm »

With 79% in Ceuta in, it seems the right-wing vote is so split between PP and Vox that PSOE may actually gain the seat from PP. Perfect illustration of this election.

I was just about to mention this, Its basically an FPTP seat there, so congrats to the PSOE I guess. Melila on the other hand will probably return a PPer once the spanish neighborhoods are counted.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #489 on: April 28, 2019, 03:55:43 pm »

The big catch from the Gad3 seat projection has to be Galicia. Left block has more seats there then Right.

Not that surprising. From my analysis I did a while back, the left and the right have been roughly tied in Galicia since the early 00s.

However, it didn't appear that way because PP was united (and still is for the most part) while the left was split between BNG and PSOE.

It's not even the first time it happens; in 2004 the left and the right tied in Galicia and in 2008 the left won by 1 seat (11 for PP; 10 for PSOE and 2 for BNG)

Actually, I'm a bit curious about this. Is there any particular reason as to why Galicia has been trending left?
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skbl17
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« Reply #490 on: April 28, 2019, 03:56:53 pm »

61% counted in Melilla now, and the CpM has maintained a stubborn ~400 vote lead over the PP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #491 on: April 28, 2019, 03:57:22 pm »

With 92.27% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   28.79%
PP       16.69%
C        15.79%
UP       14.31%
VOX     10.24%

Two blocs pretty much identical which is a disaster for the Right.
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tack50
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« Reply #492 on: April 28, 2019, 04:00:02 pm »

The big catch from the Gad3 seat projection has to be Galicia. Left block has more seats there then Right.

Not that surprising. From my analysis I did a while back, the left and the right have been roughly tied in Galicia since the early 00s.

However, it didn't appear that way because PP was united (and still is for the most part) while the left was split between BNG and PSOE.

It's not even the first time it happens; in 2004 the left and the right tied in Galicia and in 2008 the left won by 1 seat (11 for PP; 10 for PSOE and 2 for BNG)

Actually, I'm a bit curious about this. Is there any particular reason as to why Galicia has been trending left?

I guess the cities became gradually more left wing while the PP leaning countryside became more right wing has been losing population? Also maybe something about nationalism?

Worth noting that the trend was mostly in the 80s and 90s; it has been quite stable between 2000 and 2016
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rob in cal
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« Reply #493 on: April 28, 2019, 04:00:30 pm »

  One the one hand in a more proportional system the blocs would be equal, but in that case it would still be  a PSOE government due to the regionalists.
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tack50
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« Reply #494 on: April 28, 2019, 04:01:14 pm »

With 92.27% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   28.79%
PP       16.69%
C        15.79%
UP       14.31%
VOX     10.24%

Two blocs pretty much identical which is a disaster for the Right.

Worth noting that the left has almost always won. Spain has always been a left of center country.

This is the first time the right wins 2 elections back to back in the popular vote, and only the fourth time ever after 2000, 2011 and 2016.
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jaichind
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« Reply #495 on: April 28, 2019, 04:03:22 pm »

With 92.27% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   28.79%
PP       16.69%
C        15.79%
UP       14.31%
VOX     10.24%

Two blocs pretty much identical which is a disaster for the Right.

Worth noting that the left has almost always won. Spain has always been a left of center country.

This is the first time the right wins 2 elections back to back in the popular vote, and only the fourth time ever after 2000, 2011 and 2016.

When I said disaster it was more about the seat distribution. since under D'Hondt PSOE was going to get a lot of surplus seats it was critical that the Right bloc beat the Left by a solid margin to have a chance. Failure to do so was a disaster for them.
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coloniac
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« Reply #496 on: April 28, 2019, 04:04:14 pm »

Abascal talking about Reconquista is his victory speech...
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DavidB.
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« Reply #497 on: April 28, 2019, 04:06:35 pm »

Abascal talking about Reconquista is his victory speech...
Hey, I've seen that movie before!
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #498 on: April 28, 2019, 04:08:17 pm »

Abascal talking about Reconquista is his victory speech...

Doesn't matter now, he can scream in his corner for all Sanchez cares. I'm more interested in Rivera right now, whether he opens the door to govt or give Sanchez the finger forcing him to grab the Basques.
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jaichind
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« Reply #499 on: April 28, 2019, 04:08:26 pm »

Catalonia (82.9% reported)

ERC 24.6% 15 seats
PSC-PSOE 23.3% 12 seats
ECP 14.9% 7 seats
JxCAT 12.1% 7 seats
Cs 11.5% 5 seats
PP 4.8% 1 seat
Vox 3.6% 1 seat

Wow, this is a shock.  I thought there was a good bloc of anti-Independence voters that would flow to C.  Looks like they never materialized and they mostly voted PSOE.
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