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December 10, 2019, 03:08:44 am
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  Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)  (Read 69413 times)
DavidB.
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« Reply #500 on: April 28, 2019, 04:09:09 pm »

Would PSOE even want to govern with Cs, or do they prefer UP and the regionalists? Would be kind of a trip for all these former PP voters that voted Cs this time, LOL.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #501 on: April 28, 2019, 04:09:41 pm »

With 92.27% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   28.79%
PP       16.69%
C        15.79%
UP       14.31%
VOX     10.24%

Two blocs pretty much identical which is a disaster for the Right.

Worth noting that the left has almost always won. Spain has always been a left of center country.

This is the first time the right wins 2 elections back to back in the popular vote, and only the fourth time ever after 2000, 2011 and 2016.

If I've done my maths right, if you add in the 2% that PACMA, Compromis and the Cantabrians got, it's still a popular vote win for left wing parties though. Even more so if you include the nationalists
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DavidB.
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« Reply #502 on: April 28, 2019, 04:13:01 pm »

CpM still ahead in Melilla with 77% in. I think this one will be gone for the PP too. Vox shouldn't have run here.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #503 on: April 28, 2019, 04:16:18 pm »

Podemos is now speaking to their supporters.
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skbl17
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« Reply #504 on: April 28, 2019, 04:20:15 pm »

PP now ahead by 24 votes in Melilla (81.4% counted).
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tack50
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« Reply #505 on: April 28, 2019, 04:20:37 pm »

Also RIP the Spanish right in Catalonia and the Basque Country.

Currently PP-Cs-Vox are at 7 seats in Catalonia (down from 11); with 5 of those 7 going to Cs. More importantly they are at 0 in the Basque Country (down from 2).
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #506 on: April 28, 2019, 04:20:44 pm »

Melilla flips to PP.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #507 on: April 28, 2019, 04:23:39 pm »

What is the likeliest outcome now?
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Velasco
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« Reply #508 on: April 28, 2019, 04:23:44 pm »

Catalonia (82.9% reported)

ERC 24.6% 15 seats
PSC-PSOE 23.3% 12 seats
ECP 14.9% 7 seats
JxCAT 12.1% 7 seats
Cs 11.5% 5 seats
PP 4.8% 1 seat
Vox 3.6% 1 seat

Wow, this is a shock.  I thought there was a good bloc of anti-Independence voters that would flow to C.  Looks like they never materialized and they mostly voted PSOE.

Much of the Cs support in last regional elections came from socialist voters, particularly in the 'red belt' around Barcelona. The Barcelona province went to PSOE, with Public Administrations minister Meritxell Batet on top. Cs came in fourth place behind ECP, which is not a good result for Inés Arrimadas. PP won a single seat for Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo: disaster. Vox won another seat.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #509 on: April 28, 2019, 04:28:16 pm »

I think even some right-wing voters value the autonomous governments. Vox pushed the other two parties to basically say they would invoke article 155 on a more permanent basis, and that probably didn´t help their cause at the doorstep.
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jaichind
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« Reply #510 on: April 28, 2019, 04:29:50 pm »

I think even some right-wing voters value the autonomous governments. Vox pushed the other two parties to basically say they would invoke article 155 on a more permanent basis, and that probably didn´t help their cause at the doorstep.

Yep. I figured it was something like that.
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tack50
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« Reply #511 on: April 28, 2019, 04:32:31 pm »

Worth noting that at this point PSOE+Cs do add up to a majority (180 seats). Of course with Rivera's rethoric during the campaign and the fact that they are so close to PP and might be tempted to "go for the kill" a deal between the 2 is unlikely, but it's a possibility.
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tack50
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« Reply #512 on: April 28, 2019, 04:36:31 pm »

Also RIP the Spanish right in Catalonia and the Basque Country.

Currently PP-Cs-Vox are at 7 seats in Catalonia (down from 11); with 5 of those 7 going to Cs. More importantly they are at 0 in the Basque Country (down from 2).


Looking at

https://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2019/generales/congreso/13/

It seems PP and C for that matter, did not even run candidates there.   What happened ?

PP and Cs ran on a joint list with a local right wing regionalist (but unionist) party named UPN, as part of Navarra Suma (NA+)
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jaichind
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« Reply #513 on: April 28, 2019, 04:42:06 pm »

With 97.82% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   28.70%
PP       16.69%
C        15.83%
UP       14.30%
VOX     10.26%

It is interesting to note that PSOE+UP are at 43% which is a decrease from 2016 by 0.78%.  I guess the various regionalism parties gained a  lot from greater turnout and increased vote share.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #514 on: April 28, 2019, 04:47:27 pm »

So Sanchez will need bildu right?
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #515 on: April 28, 2019, 04:50:56 pm »

With 92.27% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   28.79%
PP       16.69%
C        15.79%
UP       14.31%
VOX     10.24%

Two blocs pretty much identical which is a disaster for the Right.

Worth noting that the left has almost always won. Spain has always been a left of center country.

This is the first time the right wins 2 elections back to back in the popular vote, and only the fourth time ever after 2000, 2011 and 2016.

I'm not sure I understand. Adding that up makes 43.1% for the left bloc and 42.7% for the right bloc. How can the right claim a popular vote victory?
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Diouf
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« Reply #516 on: April 28, 2019, 04:51:30 pm »


Or ERC or JxCAT. But Bildu might be the least difficult option.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #517 on: April 28, 2019, 04:52:04 pm »


There are two potential Govts:

PSOE+Podemos+PNV+CCA/PNC+Compromis+PRC gets 175. They need EH Bidhu or the Catalonians to govern, and this would probably entail dropping some of the weaker minors since Eh Bidhu has 4 and Compromis/PRC have only 1 seat.

PSOE+C's simple, but is it practical?
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skbl17
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« Reply #518 on: April 28, 2019, 04:53:24 pm »

Will CpM and PP will split the Melilla Senate seats (currently 1/1 with 22% counted) or will PP hold them both?
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tack50
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« Reply #519 on: April 28, 2019, 04:53:46 pm »

With 92.27% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   28.79%
PP       16.69%
C        15.79%
UP       14.31%
VOX     10.24%

Two blocs pretty much identical which is a disaster for the Right.

Worth noting that the left has almost always won. Spain has always been a left of center country.

This is the first time the right wins 2 elections back to back in the popular vote, and only the fourth time ever after 2000, 2011 and 2016.

I'm not sure I understand. Adding that up makes 43.1% for the left bloc and 42.7% for the right bloc. How can the right claim a popular vote victory?

PSOE+UP right now add up to 43.01

Meanwhile the right adds up to 43.20

You need to remember to add up NA+ to the right wing total as that was a joint list between PP-Cs and a regional party; PP and Cs did not take part in the election in Navarra directly

Of course a 0.2% difference is essencially a tie
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tack50
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« Reply #520 on: April 28, 2019, 04:54:26 pm »

Will CpM and PP will split the Melilla Senate seats (currently 1/1 with 22% counted) or will PP hold them both?

Senate seats with such a divided vote (PP, CpM and PSOE are all tied) can be weird to project, but on paper the most likely scenario would be PP holding both.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #521 on: April 28, 2019, 04:58:33 pm »

Sanchez speaking.
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Mike88
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« Reply #522 on: April 28, 2019, 04:59:49 pm »

The 3 main leaders speaking at the same time...
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Velasco
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« Reply #523 on: April 28, 2019, 05:04:23 pm »
« Edited: April 28, 2019, 05:19:24 pm by Velasco »

With 92.27% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   28.79%
PP       16.69%
C        15.79%
UP       14.31%
VOX     10.24%

Two blocs pretty much identical which is a disaster for the Right.

Worth noting that the left has almost always won. Spain has always been a left of center country.

This is the first time the right wins 2 elections back to back in the popular vote, and only the fourth time ever after 2000, 2011 and 2016.


I'm not sure I understand. Adding that up makes 43.1% for the left bloc and 42.7% for the right bloc. How can the right claim a popular vote victory?

PSOE+UP right now add up to 43.01

Meanwhile the right adds up to 43.20

You need to remember to add up NA+ to the right wing total as that was a joint list between PP-Cs and a regional party; PP and Cs did not take part in the election in Navarra directly

Of course a 0.2% difference is essencially a tie

As parochial boy noted before adding ERC, PACMA, EH Bildu, Compromis and others gives a slight advantage for the Left.

PSOE crowd at Sánchez's victory speech: "ˇCon Rivera No!" "No Pasarán! "

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RodPresident
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« Reply #524 on: April 28, 2019, 05:07:02 pm »

If CpM had won that seat, Sanchez wouldn't need to deal with ERC, JxC or Bildu.
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