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December 14, 2019, 04:03:19 pm
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  Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)  (Read 69763 times)
Devout Centrist
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« Reply #525 on: April 28, 2019, 05:10:07 pm »

PSOE + C's is not going to happen
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tack50
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« Reply #526 on: April 28, 2019, 05:11:35 pm »

At this point PSOE needs at least an abstention from either Bildu or ERC. No idea who of them will cave in the end (if either do). This is a better result than what happened before, but I still think this government won't last the full 4 year term.

It really depends on what the secessionists want to do.
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bigic
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« Reply #527 on: April 28, 2019, 05:13:11 pm »

If there’s one thing even I as a relative novice to Spanish politics can be confident of it’s that this election will not hinge on the idiosyncrasies of the vote in Ceuta and Melilla...

If CpM had won that seat, Sanchez wouldn't need to deal with ERC, JxC or Bildu.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #528 on: April 28, 2019, 05:14:53 pm »

Are there still some places where results can flip and some party can get additional MP? 
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Mike88
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« Reply #529 on: April 28, 2019, 05:16:33 pm »


Well, it's still very unlikely but, Sanchéz did said in his speech that he will not do "sanitary cord" in Parliament. What does this means? We'll see.
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tack50
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« Reply #530 on: April 28, 2019, 05:17:50 pm »

Municipality map courtesy of La Vanguardia

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20190428/461917396278/resultados-elecciones-generales-espana-2019-en-tu-municipio.html
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Rethliopuks
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« Reply #531 on: April 28, 2019, 05:18:11 pm »

If there’s one thing even I as a relative novice to Spanish politics can be confident of it’s that this election will not hinge on the idiosyncrasies of the vote in Ceuta and Melilla...

If CpM had won that seat, Sanchez wouldn't need to deal with ERC, JxC or Bildu.

Just to make sure I'm not missing anything -- PSOE + UP + PNV + Compromís + PRC = 173, so one seat wouldn't matter, right?

resultados.eleccionesgenerales19.es/Congreso/Total-nacional/0/es
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bigic
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« Reply #532 on: April 28, 2019, 05:19:26 pm »

There could be still a small possibility that CC supports a PSOE government.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #533 on: April 28, 2019, 05:25:10 pm »

If there’s one thing even I as a relative novice to Spanish politics can be confident of it’s that this election will not hinge on the idiosyncrasies of the vote in Ceuta and Melilla...

If CpM had won that seat, Sanchez wouldn't need to deal with ERC, JxC or Bildu.

Just to make sure I'm not missing anything -- PSOE + UP + PNV + Compromís + PRC = 173, so one seat wouldn't matter, right?

resultados.eleccionesgenerales19.es/Congreso/Total-nacional/0/es
PSOE + UP + PNV + Compromís + PRC + CC = 175 only one to magical number...
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Rethliopuks
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« Reply #534 on: April 28, 2019, 05:30:28 pm »

If there’s one thing even I as a relative novice to Spanish politics can be confident of it’s that this election will not hinge on the idiosyncrasies of the vote in Ceuta and Melilla...

If CpM had won that seat, Sanchez wouldn't need to deal with ERC, JxC or Bildu.

Just to make sure I'm not missing anything -- PSOE + UP + PNV + Compromís + PRC = 173, so one seat wouldn't matter, right?

resultados.eleccionesgenerales19.es/Congreso/Total-nacional/0/es
PSOE + UP + PNV + Compromís + PRC + CC = 175 only one to magical number...

Thanks -- so it's fine that CCa is conservative then?
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Velasco
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« Reply #535 on: April 28, 2019, 05:32:08 pm »
« Edited: April 28, 2019, 05:46:03 pm by Velasco »

There could be still a small possibility that CC supports a PSOE government.

CC and Podemos are not compatible. I have to say CC winning 2 seats is quite unpleasant to me.

Canary Islands (97.8% reported)

PSOE 27.9% 5 seats
UP 15.7% 3 seats
PP 15.5% 3 seats
Cs 14.6% 2 seats
CC 13% 2 seats

PSOE wins 3 seats in Las Palmas and 2 in SC de Tenerife. UP comes second and retains its 2 seats in Las Palmas, albeit with a reduced share. CC comes second in SC de Tenerife winning 2 seats.
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tack50
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« Reply #536 on: April 28, 2019, 05:32:41 pm »

If there’s one thing even I as a relative novice to Spanish politics can be confident of it’s that this election will not hinge on the idiosyncrasies of the vote in Ceuta and Melilla...

If CpM had won that seat, Sanchez wouldn't need to deal with ERC, JxC or Bildu.

Just to make sure I'm not missing anything -- PSOE + UP + PNV + Compromís + PRC = 173, so one seat wouldn't matter, right?

resultados.eleccionesgenerales19.es/Congreso/Total-nacional/0/es
PSOE + UP + PNV + Compromís + PRC + CC = 175 only one to magical number...

Thanks -- so it's fine that CCa is conservative then?

Yeah, CCa is conservative. They can support PSOE under some limited circumstances, but they are not their preferred coalition party by any means.

Though CC is also, as I like to say, a Marxist party in the Groucho sense. They will change their principles if you bribe them invest more money in the Canaries enough
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Rethliopuks
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« Reply #537 on: April 28, 2019, 05:35:14 pm »

If there’s one thing even I as a relative novice to Spanish politics can be confident of it’s that this election will not hinge on the idiosyncrasies of the vote in Ceuta and Melilla...

If CpM had won that seat, Sanchez wouldn't need to deal with ERC, JxC or Bildu.

Just to make sure I'm not missing anything -- PSOE + UP + PNV + Compromís + PRC = 173, so one seat wouldn't matter, right?

resultados.eleccionesgenerales19.es/Congreso/Total-nacional/0/es
PSOE + UP + PNV + Compromís + PRC + CC = 175 only one to magical number...

Thanks -- so it's fine that CCa is conservative then?

Yeah, CCa is conservative. They can support PSOE under some limited circumstances, but they are not their preferred coalition party by any means.

Though CC is also, as I like to say, a Marxist party in the Groucho sense. They will change their principles if you bribe them invest more money in the Canaries enough

lol. It's a shame then. If CpM had entered a coalition with either UP or PSOE then the left would have won the seat, per resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2019/generales/congreso/19/ . I wonder if there was a reason why they did not, though?
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Velasco
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« Reply #538 on: April 28, 2019, 05:37:03 pm »

Remember there is a regional election count going on in Valencia

https://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2019/autonomicas/17/index.html

33% reporting

PSOE 28 25,25 %
PP 20 18,88 %
Cs 17 16,61 %
COMPROMíS 16 15,86 %
VOX   10 10,08 %
UNIDES PODEM-EUPV 8 8,22 %

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jeron
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« Reply #539 on: April 28, 2019, 05:39:58 pm »

Also RIP the Spanish right in Catalonia and the Basque Country.

Currently PP-Cs-Vox are at 7 seats in Catalonia (down from 11); with 5 of those 7 going to Cs. More importantly they are at 0 in the Basque Country (down from 2).


Well. That is hardly a surprise after what happened in 2017 and I am sure the right wing ‘Colon cooperation didnt go well either.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #540 on: April 28, 2019, 05:42:29 pm »

BNG surge from 2,8 to 5,7 probably took from Podemos two seats.
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Velasco
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« Reply #541 on: April 28, 2019, 05:43:52 pm »

Valencian Community (General Elections 99% reporting)

PSOE 27.8% 10 seats
PP 18.6% 7 seats
Cs 18% 6 seats
UP 14.6% 5 seats
Vox 12% 3 seats
Compromís 6.4% 1 seat

Apparent vote split between Compromís and UP in regional and general elections
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Anomalocaris🌹
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« Reply #542 on: April 28, 2019, 05:55:42 pm »

Rudimentary question: Would a PSOE-Podemos agreement be a formal coalition with ministerial seats assigned to Podemos MPs or is it basically just supply and confidence?
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RodPresident
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« Reply #543 on: April 28, 2019, 05:57:12 pm »

https://resultados.eleccionesgenerales19.es/Congreso/Total-nacional/Cataluna/Girona/40/es
Girona ECP lost last seat to ERC for 939 votes
https://resultados.eleccionesgenerales19.es/Congreso/Total-nacional/Castilla---La-Mancha/Toledo/67/es
UP lost last seat to PP for 1729 votes
Tragedy
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Mike88
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« Reply #544 on: April 28, 2019, 06:02:58 pm »

I don't understand why Casado didn't resign tonight. 16.7% is a Titanic mode result. If he continues until the Municipal and EP election in May, who knows how low the PP results will be.
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jaichind
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« Reply #545 on: April 28, 2019, 06:04:19 pm »


Good.  C should let Sánchez deal with the Catalonia secessionists with his very narrow government and whatever he does just join PP and VOX in yelling "Traitor  !!Traitor !! Traitor !!"
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Ebsy
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« Reply #546 on: April 28, 2019, 06:09:36 pm »

Great to see the Francoists getting what they deserve.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #547 on: April 28, 2019, 06:11:26 pm »

Great to see the Francoists getting what they deserve.

In Spanish politics getting 1/6 votes is a magical number... C's almost doubled their seats
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Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #548 on: April 28, 2019, 06:14:32 pm »

Great to see the Francoists getting what they deserve.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #549 on: April 28, 2019, 06:16:57 pm »
« Edited: April 29, 2019, 01:26:34 am by coloniac »

I don't understand why Casado didn't resign tonight. 16.7% is a Titanic mode result. If he continues until the Municipal and EP election in May, who knows how low the PP results will be.

The spanish equivalent of 4chan raised a fund to send some minstrels to the PP headquarters...they are livestreaming on twitch. https://www.twitch.tv/videos/417788228?t=14s

His speech seemed defeatist but it would probably make little sense for the PP to change organisational structure so soon so theyll keep him. Hopefully Aznar s off though.

EDIT : Also PP LOST CONTROL OF THE SENATE which is a huge deal in the Constitutional debate (electoral reform, Catalonia trials, SUpreme Court, etc).
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