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October 23, 2019, 10:08:21 am
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  Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)  (Read 52381 times)
Heat
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« Reply #550 on: April 28, 2019, 06:17:54 pm »
« edited: April 28, 2019, 06:22:27 pm by Heat »

It is, I think, abundantly clear that the PP and C's deciding that the Spanish people being angry at the Catalans clearly meant they would eat up a campaign based around Making Granddad Proud because muh global trends/muh Kurz is the most hilariously catastrophic strategic error by a right-wing party since everything the Tories did in 2017.
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Velasco
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« Reply #551 on: April 28, 2019, 06:39:47 pm »

Also PP LOST CONTROL OF THE SENATE which is a huge deal in the Constitutional debate (electoral reform, Catalonia trials, SUpreme Court, etc).

We always overlook Senate, but as you say it's very important in the present context

Results (Total: 208)

PSOE 122
PP 56
ERC 11
EAJ-PNV 9
Cs 3
NA+ 3
JxCAT 2
EH Bildu 1
ASG 1
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Blairite
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« Reply #552 on: April 28, 2019, 06:40:10 pm »

This is dumb. PSOE+C's is obviously the best possible outcome for Spain, but dumb C's leadership is stopping it. At least Vox flopped.
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DL
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« Reply #553 on: April 28, 2019, 06:41:30 pm »

Looks like the left will retain power in Valencia too
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Ses
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« Reply #554 on: April 28, 2019, 06:42:44 pm »

This is dumb. PSOE+C's is obviously the best possible outcome for Spain, but dumb C's leadership is stopping it. At least Vox flopped.

Cs is are barely better than Vox. They've been pushing extremely far right over the last few years and aren't really a standard "liberal" party anymore.
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Heat
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« Reply #555 on: April 28, 2019, 06:44:06 pm »

This is dumb. PSOE+C's is obviously the best possible outcome for Spain, but dumb C's leadership is stopping it.
They want to have a future in politics.
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Velasco
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« Reply #556 on: April 28, 2019, 06:47:42 pm »

This is dumb. PSOE+C's is obviously the best possible outcome for Spain, but dumb C's leadership is stopping it. At least Vox flopped.

I think you must realize that Cs is not exactly the equivalent of En Marche!, the Lib Dems or the Trudeau boys.

Looks like the left will retain power in Valencia too

73.9% reporting

PSOE 24.24% 27 seats
PP 28-94% 20 seats
Cs 17.25% 18 seats
ompromís 16.17% 16 seats
Vox 10.29% 10 seats
UP 8.05% 8 seats

Left: 51 seats
Right 48 seats
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DL
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« Reply #557 on: April 28, 2019, 06:51:33 pm »

This is dumb. PSOE+C's is obviously the best possible outcome for Spain, but dumb C's leadership is stopping it. At least Vox flopped.

Cs is are barely better than Vox. They've been pushing extremely far right over the last few years and aren't really a standard "liberal" party anymore.

What does it take for a party to get expelled from the ALDE?
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Blairite
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« Reply #558 on: April 28, 2019, 06:56:13 pm »

This is dumb. PSOE+C's is obviously the best possible outcome for Spain, but dumb C's leadership is stopping it. At least Vox flopped.

I think you must realize that Cs is not exactly the equivalent of En Marche!, the Lib Dems or the Trudeau boys.
Sure, but at least they're pro-Europe, and being hardline on Catalonia is the right call. Anyway, PSOE majority isn't an option, and I certainly prefer C's to UP. Plus, a PSOE-C's government done right could sort of average out to LREM.
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« Reply #559 on: April 28, 2019, 06:57:24 pm »

This is dumb. PSOE+C's is obviously the best possible outcome for Spain, but dumb C's leadership is stopping it. At least Vox flopped.

Cs is are barely better than Vox. They've been pushing extremely far right over the last few years and aren't really a standard "liberal" party anymore.

What does it take for a party to get expelled from the ALDE?

aLDE is a joke party with no actual political coherence, even by the standards of EU groups. It contains Fianna Fail, for crying out loud!
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mileslunn
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« Reply #560 on: April 28, 2019, 06:57:58 pm »

This is dumb. PSOE+C's is obviously the best possible outcome for Spain, but dumb C's leadership is stopping it. At least Vox flopped.

Cs is are barely better than Vox. They've been pushing extremely far right over the last few years and aren't really a standard "liberal" party anymore.

What does it take for a party to get expelled from the ALDE?

In European parliament majority vote by parties represented.  I believe there are attempts to expel Fidesz from EPP so can be done.  ALDE though does include several centre-right parties and some like Venestre in Denmark or Centre Party in Finland have included far right parties in their coalitions so doubt it will happen.  Unlike North America, liberalism in Europe is more the classical type so most ALDE parties would be more comparable to the BC Liberals than federal Liberals.
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« Reply #561 on: April 28, 2019, 07:04:36 pm »

Rudimentary question: Would a PSOE-Podemos agreement be a formal coalition with ministerial seats assigned to Podemos MPs or is it basically just supply and confidence?
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Velasco
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« Reply #562 on: April 28, 2019, 07:14:09 pm »

This is dumb. PSOE+C's is obviously the best possible outcome for Spain, but dumb C's leadership is stopping it. At least Vox flopped.

I think you must realize that Cs is not exactly the equivalent of En Marche!, the Lib Dems or the Trudeau boys.
Sure, but at least they're pro-Europe, and being hardline on Catalonia is the right call. Anyway, PSOE majority isn't an option, and I certainly prefer C's to UP. Plus, a PSOE-C's government done right could sort of average out to LREM.

Well, regarding Catalonia I strongly disagree with you. I don't like separatists and some of them are as disgusting to me as the most reactionary nationalists on the opposite side. However, it's impossible to overlook that separatist parties got 47.5% and more than 2 million of votes in the last regional elections. This is a strength comaparable to that of the Quebec separatists at their peak. Like them or not, they have a parliamentary majority in Catalonia and control regional government. In this scenario a political negotiation is imperative. The Spanish Right including Cs has no proposals to solve the political and constitutional crisis in Catalonia. They just promised to invoke article 155 of the Spanish Constitution in order to suspend regional autonomy and implement direct rule from Madrid. Predictably that measure would lead to the inflammation of separatist feelings in Catalonia and eventually to the collapse of Spain. The path of negotiation will be undoubtedly long and tortuous, but it's the only way possible.
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Velasco
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« Reply #563 on: April 28, 2019, 07:19:47 pm »
« Edited: April 28, 2019, 07:23:19 pm by Velasco »

Rudimentary question: Would a PSOE-Podemos agreement be a formal coalition with ministerial seats assigned to Podemos MPs or is it basically just supply and confidence?

Pedro Sánchez left open the possibility of a coalition government in an interview to El País a couple of days ago. This is a development from his previous stance, because Sánchez stated before he was seeking to form a PSOE minority government with some progressive independents (more or less what we have now). Podemos lost seats but it's strategically well placed so maybe...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #564 on: April 28, 2019, 07:21:15 pm »

The utterly abysmal result for the PP is a timely reminder to all political parties not to push it; that there's a limit to what even a hitherto extremely hard and loyal electorate is prepared to take.
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DL
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« Reply #565 on: April 28, 2019, 07:30:09 pm »

This is dumb. PSOE+C's is obviously the best possible outcome for Spain, but dumb C's leadership is stopping it. At least Vox flopped.

I think you must realize that Cs is not exactly the equivalent of En Marche!, the Lib Dems or the Trudeau boys.

Looks like the left will retain power in Valencia too

73.9% reporting

PSOE 24.24% 27 seats
PP 28-94% 20 seats
Cs 17.25% 18 seats
ompromís 16.17% 16 seats
Vox 10.29% 10 seats
UP 8.05% 8 seats

Left: 51 seats
Right 48 seats

Now it’s Left 52 to right 47
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wolfentoad66
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« Reply #566 on: April 28, 2019, 08:41:39 pm »

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Heat
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« Reply #567 on: April 28, 2019, 08:51:14 pm »

Getting the left and the Catalans to turn out en masse to own the left and the Catalans.
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DL
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« Reply #568 on: April 28, 2019, 10:33:25 pm »

Are all the votes counted now in Spain or are there still votes from abroad to come that might possibly flip a seat somewhere?
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morgieb
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« Reply #569 on: April 29, 2019, 12:10:19 am »

Finally a European election that is a significant rebuke of fascists!
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FredLindq
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« Reply #570 on: April 29, 2019, 01:11:45 am »

Why has Catalonia and Paus Vasco became so left-wing?!
Och
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coloniac
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« Reply #571 on: April 29, 2019, 01:18:37 am »
« Edited: April 29, 2019, 07:28:10 am by coloniac »

The utterly abysmal result for the PP is a timely reminder to all political parties not to push it; that there's a limit to what even a hitherto extremely hard and loyal electorate is prepared to take.

Yeah and the race to the bottom between them, C's and Vox as to who can be the most hardline on regionalists who want to "destroy" Spain backfired massively on PP in two dimensions : 1. when Rivera cleverly produced their history of allying with the PNV and Convergencia via buying them off 2. When centre right "unionist" voters in said regions realised they still preferred maintaining some semblance of normality there, which includes a devolved government.

This is dumb. PSOE+C's is obviously the best possible outcome for Spain, but dumb C's leadership is stopping it. At least Vox flopped.

I think you must realize that Cs is not exactly the equivalent of En Marche!, the Lib Dems or the Trudeau boys.
Sure, but at least they're pro-Europe, and being hardline on Catalonia is the right call. Anyway, PSOE majority isn't an option, and I certainly prefer C's to UP. Plus, a PSOE-C's government done right could sort of average out to LREM.

Ah yes, 400,000 extra indepe voters for ERC and JxC in the regional election called right after Article 155 as well as a net seat gain in this election (when some seperatists usually tactically vote for left soft unionists in national elections), not to mention that young voters are increasingly more radical in their pro-independence views thanks to the Spanish Right.

Worked like a charm!
  
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #572 on: April 29, 2019, 01:55:19 am »

Finally a European election that is a significant rebuke of fascists!

Well, they entered the legislature for the first time since Franco dictatorship. Not a resounding victory.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #573 on: April 29, 2019, 02:29:30 am »

Why has Catalonia and Paus Vasco became so left-wing?!
Och

National aspirations tend to have liberationist ideological tendency because it is usually a small population fighting for sovereignty against the powerful majority. Think Ireland under British rule, Palestine, etc.
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coloniac
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« Reply #574 on: April 29, 2019, 03:37:42 am »
« Edited: April 29, 2019, 07:26:28 am by coloniac »

Why has Catalonia and Paus Vasco became so left-wing?!
Och

National aspirations tend to have liberationist ideological tendency because it is usually a small population fighting for sovereignty against the powerful majority. Think Ireland under British rule, Palestine, etc.

Yeah but Catalan nationalism, at least at the leadership level, used to be dominated by a more bourgeois nationalist aspiration of deep seated paranoia of the central state as a tax collector. Rivera was being provocative but his assertion that Pujol, Torra and a few other Catalan nationalist grandees from the Convergencia side have a structurally xenophobic outlook on Andalucians and other Spanish communities is not that far from the truth.

If the nationalists in Catalonia swung towards ERC its because they were afforded an ideal platform with Rufían on national tv debates with his quips and Junqueras, this incorruptible christian guy, being an imprisoned matyr. Meanwhile the successors to Convergencia, Junts per Catalunya, despite their reasonably good results, are kind of a mess.

If the unionists swung left its because they are tired of the issue altogether and PSOE and Podem offered a platform of "convivencia ", peace, etc. while the Right had bellicist rhetoric. I imagine C's knew they were going to be trading votes of Catalan moderate unionists in favour of more right-wing electorates in the mainland.
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