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  Spanish elections and politics II (investiture failed, countdown for elections)
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Velasco
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« Reply #725 on: June 07, 2019, 08:22:40 am »
« edited: June 07, 2019, 08:28:24 am by Velasco »


It's pretty obvious that the Socialists don't have any option BUT a coalition with Podemos. So whatever Sanchez thinks about Iglesias' humility he won't be returned as PM without forming a government with him.

It's obvious that socialists have no other option but seeking the UP support. The main goal of Pablo Iglesias right now is entering in a coaltion government, in order to mitigate the effects of rlectoral catastrophe (Iglesias saved his face in April, but UP collapsed in May) and touch power. The 42 seats that UP holds in Congress are an important asset in negotiations, but socialists know that Pablo Iglesias can't threat them seriously with a repetition of elections (it'd be a disaster for UP) and that not everybody in the Iglesias' group is comfortable with the idea of a coalition government. For instance the Andalusian branch led by Teresa Rodríguez prefers not to participate in a coalition and favours an agreement on platform issues between PSOE and UP, as it happens in Portugal with PS and the leftist parties. The Podemos-IU alliance in Andalusia resisted better than in other regions, retaining the mayoralty of Cádiz.Teresa Rodríguez is a representative of the Podemos faction that is further to the left...

As I said before, negotiations start now and all is gambling
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Velasco
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« Reply #726 on: June 08, 2019, 05:15:31 am »
« Edited: June 08, 2019, 05:27:41 am by Velasco »

Pedro Sánchez is ready to begin talks t form a new government

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/06/07/inenglish/1559891314_393684.html

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I have a tremendous feeling of gratitude for the Spanish people, and a tremendous sense of responsibility,” said Sánchez, who will next week initiate talks with the conservative Popular Party (PP), center-right Ciudadanos (Citizens) and left-wing Unidas Podemos to discuss support for a PSOE-led government.

“We need to start this conversation. It’s either the PSOE or the PSOE. There is no alternative majority,” he said. “Everyone is responsible for facilitating this government, most particularly Podemos, the PP and Ciudadanos.”

The acting PM will meet Pablo Iglesias first, but the consultation round will follow with Pablo Casado and Albert Rivera. Sánchez will pressure rightwing leaders asking them to abstain and facilitate his investiture. It's highly unlikely that PP and Cs will help Sánchez and the negotiations between PSOE and UP will be tough. As said in the oprevious post the creation of a majority without the support of the (always unreliable) separatist parties is very complex and depends on the abstention of the Navarrese regionalists. Pablo Iglesias is upset because Pedro Sánchez hasn't talked with him in the last two weeks and says he fears the PSOE leader is considering a deal with Cs, despite the recent moves of the orange party and the awful personal relation between Sánchez and Rivera say otherwise.

PP and Vox sealed a deal to govern the municipalities where both parties have a majority without Cs. The deal has to be countersigned by local organizations and would affect around 30 municipalities including Almería and several towns belonging to its province (El Ejido, Adra, Roquetas de Mar, Nerja), Algeciras (Cádiz province, in front of Gibraltar), Ceuta and some wealthy towns in Madrid province (Pozuelo de Alarcón, Majadahonda and Las Rozas). However the deal won't be viable in Ceuta due to the Vox's "aggressive" message "contrary to connivance", according to local PP sources. This deal comes out in the context of the complex negotiations between PP and Cs, particularly tough in Madrid. A meeting between representatives of the PP and Cs municipal groups in Madrid went badly, to the point that PP councilor elect Andrea Levy (former deputy and Rajoy's protegé, a young promising star from Catalonia) stated that she's not sure who's going to support Cs. Sadly this doesn't imply that Cs will allow Manuela Carmena and Ángel Gabilondo to govern the Spain's capital and the region of Madrid. Rather the oranges are seeking to place Begoña Villacís as mayor or Ignacio Aguado as premier. The way Cs rejects to negotiate face to face with Vox, despite oranges need the far right votes to govern, is an additional difficulty. Madrid is too important for the Spanish Right to be lost due to differences between parties, so the most likely scenario is the Colón Triumvirate finally reaches an agreement to secure the city and the region's "tax oasis".

BComú grassroots endorsed massively the Cplau's decision to seek reelection as mayor of Barcelona.

PSOE and PAR reached an agreement in Aragon that doesn't secure a majority (only, but prevents the possibility of a rightwing government. The centre-right Aragonese Party ruled out deals with Vox due the radical centralism of the Santiago Abascal party. The PSOE premier Javier Lambán has secured 27 of 67 seats (PSOE 24, PAR 3) and needs to reach agreements with Cs (12) or the leftist parties (Podemos  5, CHA 3 and IU 1).

Casimiro Curbelo is the kingmaker in the Canary Islands, once socialists ruled out a deal with the PP. The cacique of La Gomera island caught a flight to Madrid and met minister of Development José Luis Äbalos, who is also the PSOE's secretary for organization. They talked about a deal that would allow the socialists to replace CC regionalists in government. Curbelo stated that he will be "cool and pragmatic" and didn't give clues on which candidate he will support. The leader of La Gomera left the PSOE in 2011 and since then he allied with CC in regional parliament. Even if he gets the support of the ASG (Gomera Socialists), the acting CC premier has a problem with Cs. Fernando Clavijo is under investigation for an old affair as mayor of La Laguna (Tenerife) and oranges reject to back him because of this. CC officials met in Madrid with Cs secretary general José Manuel Villegas in order to lift the veto on Clavijo. Orange bosses will look the Clavijo affair "calmly", according to a CC spokeperson. The parties left of the centre (PSOE 25, NC 5 and Podemos 4) hold 34 seats in regional parliament, parties right of the centre (CC 20. PP 11 and Cs 2) hold 33 and the Curbelo's ASG holds the remaining 3.
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Velasco
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« Reply #727 on: June 09, 2019, 01:04:14 am »
« Edited: June 09, 2019, 09:38:34 pm by Velasco »

Yesterday there was a meeting of the Podemos' "citizen council", the party's executive committee. Pablo Iglesias made his case with the coalition, arguing that the only way to change policies is entering the government ("programmatic agreements are dead letters", he said). Currently the "citizen council" consists in the Iglesias' supporters and the regional leaders, given that a majority of the members close to Íñigo Errejón faction has left and the remaining are mere spectators. The only opposition to Pablo Iglesias comes from regions like Andalusia and Aragon, whose representatives favour programmatic agreement instead coalition government as well as a greater decentralization of the party structure. The spokesman of the Andalusian branch warned about the risk of a coalition with the PSOE in a moment the European Commission is demanding cuts to Spain. Pablo Iglesias analyzed the causes of the bad electoral results, arguing they were due to internal division and organizational weakness. The Podemos leader criticized the weak regional structures and the lack of territorial leadership. He only acknowledged the work well done by José María González (aka Kichi, mayor of Cádiz) and Ada Colau (the mayor of Barcelona is not a Podemos member and her reelection is not secured). Iglesias argued that he performed better in general elections (not a good result, but above expectations), showing little capacity for self-criticism in the view of many analysts. The Podemos leader claims he wants to lead a new political stage with coalition governments at all administrative levels. The two-party system is dead and now "compromise and dialogue" are necessary. Iglesias warned again on the possibility that Pedro Sánchez tries to deal with Cs. Finally the renewal of the Podemos leadership entails that Pablo Echenique has been replaced by the Canarian deputy Alberto Rodríguez as Secretary for organization (third-in-line after Pablo Iglesias and Irene Montero) and that Ïñigo Errejón no longer appears as member in the party website.

The "serious doubts" towards the PP of the Cs candidate Francisco Igea favour an approach to the PSOE in Castile and León. PSOE candidate José Luis Tudanca encouraged Igea to reach an agreement in the view of their "multiple coincidences". PP governs the region since 1987.
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tack50
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« Reply #728 on: June 10, 2019, 11:39:14 am »

While at the regional level there will be some variation, at the local level, all 8000+ municipalities will actually have their first town council meeting and elect a mayor this Saturday, from Madrid to the tiniest village with like 5 inhabitants.

Here is how mayors are elected in Spain:

1: Local Elections This already happened on the 26th of May. The electoral system is standard D'Hondt with a 5% hurdle and we all know the results.

2: First Council Meeting: At the first council meeting, all heads from each party with representation in the town council are automatically candidates for mayor unless they drop out.

3: Mayor vote: An overall majority (50%+1) of Councillors is needed to elect a mayor. There is only a single round of voting.

4: Failsafe: If no one candidate gets 50%+1 of Councillors, the head of the party which got the most votes is automatically elected as mayor

5: No Confidence votes: At any point during the 4 year term a no confidence vote can be introduced against the mayor. If 50%+1 of Councillors agree, the mayor is replaced. I believe this is capped to a single successful no confidence vote for the entire 4 year term but don't quote me on that.

So it's pretty much like a small scale version of the national parliament.

Last term (2015-2019), some high profile no confidence votes/party control switches include Badalona for example (town in the Barcelona suburbs, used to have a CUP mayor until PSC stopped supporting it and a PP+PSC brought a PSC mayor even if PP was larger).

If the mayor resigns at any point, this process is also used.
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Velasco
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« Reply #729 on: June 11, 2019, 01:28:23 am »
« Edited: June 11, 2019, 02:53:13 am by Velasco »

Pedro Sánchez opens the negotiations for his investiture today. He will hold consecutive meetings (in this order) with Pablo Iglesias, Albert Rivera and Pablo Casado. The strategy of the governing party is to direct pressure over opposition leaders making them responsible for the stability of the country. The alternatives are a PSOE government or the repetition of elections, warned José Luis Äbalos from the PSOE's HQs. Socialists take for granted a repetition of elections would entail the downfall of UP and a decrease for Cs. Ábalos stressed that Spaniards won't forgive those who jeopardize stability. Today Pedro Sánchez will demand political actors "generosity", "patriotism" and "giving in for the common good". "It's important that Spaniards know which parties have constructive willingness (...) and which ones want to kick the table". PP and Cs will be pressed to abstain in the investiture vote, invoking the 2016 precedent when most of the PSOE MPs abstained to allow the investiture of Mariano Rajoy (Pedro Sánchez opposed and was ousted from leadership shortly thereafter). Sánchez claims abstention would be an act of consistency and offers PP and Cs "big agreements" on pensions, regional funding and infrastructures.

PSOE leadership rules out the "Navarrese Path" for investiture. The abstention of the  UPN deputies in Congress would be useless, because it would entail the withdrawal of PNV support. Right now the PSOE is willing to allow NA+ (UPN, PP and Cs) to govern Pamplona, replacing the acting local government led by EH Bildu. Results in Pamplona: NA+ 13 councilors, EH Bildu 7, PSOE 5 and GBai 2. The PSOE won't support EH Bildu mayoral candidates in Navarre and refuses to negotiate with Basque separatists. Despite this, PSOE candidate María Chivite won't give up her attempt to govern the region. Chivite would need the support of GBai (Basque nationalists) and the leftist parties to succeed, as well as the abstention of EH Bildu. Composition of regional parliament: NA+ 20 seats, PSOE 11, GBai 9, EH Bildu 7, Podemos2, IU 1.

Socialists maintain their rejection to a coalition government with Unidas Podemos, arguing they would consider the possibility if both parties had a majority. PSOE and UP only have 165 seats, while majority is set at 176. They also argue that a coalition with UP would substract the support of parties like CC. They also dislike some Iglesias' statements claiming that UP would be vigilant in order to ensure progressive policies are implemented. However Pablo Iglesias is not willing to give up. The Podemos leader says he won't give blank cheques to Pedro Sánchez. "If we are not in the government, the PSOE would agree with us some social measures" merely cosmetic "to decide the broad policy lines with the right".Iglesias says Podemos is not seeking "State ministries" such as Foreign Affairs or Defense, but ministries with social portfolios.

Today begins the investiture debate at the Valencian regional parliament. PSOE agreed on the dead line with Compromís and UP that coalition partners will have a half of the cabinet seats. There are differences on the division of management areas. PSOE candidate Ximo Puig seeks reelection as premier of the Valencian Community, while Compromís leader Mónica Oltra will be the deputy premier. After the 2015 elections Podemos signed a confidence and supply agreement with PSOE and Compromís, but this time UP (Podemos+IU) enters the regional government.

PP candidate in Ceuta and acting mayor-president of the autonomous city Juan Jesús Vivas seals an agreement with the PSOE, rejecting the agreement between PP and Vox national leaderships to govern the municipalities where both parties have a majority. "We don't want to know anything about Vox", said Vivas. Socialists will vote the investiture of the  PP candidate, but they won't enter the local government.

Meanwhile Cs leader in Madrid Igancio Aguado lifted the ban and met with Vox candidate Rocío Monasterio, in order to agree who is the speaker of the Madrid regional assembly and composition of the bureau.This meeting could pave the way for a three way agreement between PP, Cs and Vox.

Cs national leadership warns Castile and León candidate Francisco Igea that PP is the preferential partner for coalitions.

PNV and PSOE sign a deal that could seize 8 municipalities in the Basque Country from EH Bildu
 

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Velasco
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« Reply #730 on: June 13, 2019, 06:20:16 am »
« Edited: June 13, 2019, 02:07:21 pm by Velasco »

PSOE and UP agreed to negotiate a "government of cooperation"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/06/11/inenglish/1560259078_292095.html

Quote
After meeting on Tuesday for an hour and 20 minutes, the parties announced they have agreed to negotiate a “government of cooperation.”

Complex negotiations will now begin on the exact nature of this cooperation. For the PSOE, this means negotiating with Iglesias’s party to decide who will take ministerial positions. “We will look for formulas for a plural government with people who are leaders in their fields. [Pablo] Iglesias has told the prime minister that he will consider it. It is an inclusive government, not a closed one like a coalition government,” said PSOE parliamentary spokesperson Adriana Lastra after the meeting.

For Unidas Podemos, it means that they will have a say in who is named minister. At the press conference, Lastra did not rule out the possibility that Iglesias will be part of the executive. “In the last 12 months, we have shown that the left knows how to understand one another,” she said(...)

So "government of cooperation" appears to be a rhetoric compromise solution rather than an innovative formula for governance. Both parties agreed they need to reach an agreement.

As expected, PP and Cs leaders rejected to abstain in the investiture. The goal to achieve an investiture without the cooperation of ERC seems unattainable. After the first round of conversations with the parliamentary groups -excluding EH Bildu and Vox- the socialists reached an agreement with the PRC (Cantabria regionalists). However the spokepersons of the regionalist parties CC (Canaries) ad UPN (Navarre) stated their rejection. In the case of CC, deputy Ana Oramas said again her party will never support any government participated by Podemos, either coalition or programmatic agreement. In the case of UPN, they'll vote against if socialists govern Navarre. So the positions are fixed and we haven't moved from the starting point. Pedro Sánchez can secure 173 votes (3 short from majority) reaching agreements with UP, PNV, Compromís and PRC. In order to be elected in the second investiture vote, it's necessary that at least one of the separatist parties (ERC, JxCAT and EH Bildu) abstains.

The trial of the Catalan separatist leaders at the Supreme Court is remitted for decision. The defendants call for a political solution of the crisis in their final speeches

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/06/13/inenglish/1560408638_344315.html

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The 12 Catalan separatist leaders on trial for rebellion and other crimes in connection with the unilateral secession attempt of October 2017 made their final statements at the last hearing on Wednesday.

All of them insisted that they are political prisoners on trial because of their ideas. They said their only aim had been to give Catalan citizens a chance to express themselves through a referendum, and called for political dialogue with the central government in Madrid as the only way out of the conflict.

The sentence is expected in October and the political repercussions will be huge. Prosecutors have used tortuous legal arguments to support the charge of rebellion and the existence of the "necessary violence". The defendants admit they are guilty of disobedience, but they tried to minimize the i,importance of the unilateral declaration of independence and the previous events in September and October 2017.

BComú and PSC will negotiate a preliminary agreement that would allow Ada Colau to be reelected as Mayor of Barcelona, with the "unconditional support" of the councilors loyal to Manuel Valls.

Meanwhile Cs confirms its total allegiance to the rightwing bloc. PP, Cs and Vox are aimed at reaching agreements to govern the regions of Madrid and Murcia. In the case of Madrid, the Colón Triumvirate secured the control of the regional assembly's bureau, seizing one seat from Más Madrid to Vox (Errejón said they will appeal to the Constitutional Court). PP and Vox agreed the far right party will be rewarded with some regional secretariats, as Cs still opposes that Vox gets cabinet seats in regional governments. PP and Cs reached a preliminary agreement to govern Castile and León as well., despite the initial reluctance of Cs candidate Francisco Igea.

CC offered the PP to lead regional government in the Canary Islands.

The PP-Cs regional government reached an agreement with Vox in Andalusia that allows to pass this year's budget. It entails concessions on ideological and "cultural battle" affairs, such as renaming gender-based violence (now it's called "domestic violence") or changes in historical memory regarding victims of the Civil War (limitation to "actions in mass graves, recovery and tracking of mass graves and DNA bank") and the "enhancement of the discovery of America and subsequent exploits"
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Velasco
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« Reply #731 on: June 15, 2019, 12:20:02 pm »
« Edited: June 16, 2019, 06:59:04 am by Velasco »

While at the regional level there will be some variation, at the local level, all 8000+ municipalities will actually have their first town council meeting and elect a mayor this Saturday, from Madrid to the tiniest village with like 5 inhabitants.

José Luis Martínez- Almeida (PP) replaces Manuela Carmena as Mayor of Madrid with the support of PP, Cs and Vox. Begoña Villacís (Cs) will be Deputy Mayor. PP signed separate deals with Cs and Vox. The details are published in media and maybe I could translate some measures tomorrow in case anyone's interested

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2019/06/15/madrid/1560585242_658455.html

There's nothing illegal in the decision to work with Vox, says the new mayor

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/15/spanish-parties-far-right-vox-madrid

Quote
Martínez-Almeida succeeds Manuela Carmena, a leftwing former judge whose four-year stint as mayor was marked by a commitment to diversity and the environment.

The new mayor shrugged off criticism of his party’s decision to work with Vox, challenging anyone “to find anything that lies outside the legal order” in his deals.

But he also promised to serve all the people of Madrid.

“Between us, we will build Madrid,” said Martínez-Almeida. “We won’t leave behind those who want a more open Madrid. We want to write the future and not remember the past.”

Carmena congratulated her successor and reminded him of the importance of both feminism and democracy.

“We need to look after democracy because we know what it cost to bring democracy to this country,” she said. “It took so much, such an effort and so many lives that we cannot forget it.”  


Ada Colau (Barcelona en Comú) reelected Mayor of Barcelona with the support of BComú, PSC and 3 independent councilors of the Manuel Valls list (the 3 Cs councilors abstained)

While Madrid, Zaragoza and the towns in Galicia have been lost, arcelona and Cadiz remain as strongholds of the alternative left (besides Valencia, where Joan Ribó of Compromís was reelected).

"Power to the people": renewables revival in Barcelona and Cádiz

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/14/power-to-the-people-how-spanish-cities-took-control-of-energy

Quote
 After a close fight, Barcelona’s radical mayor, Ada Colau, is expected to take office for a second term on Saturday, vindicating her often-criticised policies, which have included making sure all the city’s municipal buildings and services run on renewable energy.  


In the nearby Badalona the PSC candidate Alex Pastor was elected Mayor with the support of his party, the ERC-Guanyem list of former mayor Dolors Sabater, En Comú Podem and JxCAT. PP candidate and former mayor Xavier García Albiol expected to be elected, as his list came first and there was no alternative coalition to oust him. However Dolors Sabater stepped aside and all the councilors of her list voted for the PSC candidate, despite nationalists got more votes than socialists in elections. García Albiol is well known for his anti-immigrant stances and ran a personalist campaign without PP banners...
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tack50
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« Reply #732 on: June 16, 2019, 06:26:23 am »
« Edited: June 16, 2019, 06:33:32 am by tack50 »

ABC has a great map of who ended up as mayor in each of the 52 provincial capitals

https://www.abc.es/media/espana/2019/06/16/ayntamientos-capitales-provincia-kO8E--1248x698@abc.jpg

Posting only the link in order to combat mods Tongue

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xelas81
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« Reply #733 on: June 16, 2019, 08:55:45 am »

ABC has a great map of who ended up as mayor in each of the 52 provincial capitals


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How did IU win Zamora?
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tack50
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« Reply #734 on: June 16, 2019, 08:57:36 am »

ABC has a great map of who ended up as mayor in each of the 52 provincial capitals


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How did IU win Zamora?

Back in 2015, Podemos did not run any candidates there, so IU worked as the default option for those voters. Not only that but the mayor ran a really good campaign and ended up winning.

The mayor turned out to be extremely popular and he won a landslide this year (getting an overall majority!) despite Zamora's partisanship. It also helps that Zamora is a small town of only 60 000 inhabitants, which makes "retail politics" easier.

Another extremely popular mayor who won a huge majority is PSOE in Vigo (a large Galician city, albeit not a provincial capital), who got 67% of the vote and 20/27 Councillors! (though Vigo is actually a left wing city, though he still won a massive landlide vastly overperforming PSOE's baseline)
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Velasco
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« Reply #735 on: June 16, 2019, 09:30:22 am »

The personal factor often weighs more than ideology in local elections and Zamora is a clear example. IU mayor Francisco Guarido forged his reputation as a hard-working opposition councilor. The sapping of the PP local government and the infighting within local PSOE paved the way for Guarido in 2015. Guarido remains loyal to the IU banner and rejects alliances with Podemos. His work as mayor was approved by the neighbours of this middle-sized conservative town in Castile and Guarido was easily reelected this year. The only IU mayor in a provincial capital was a school janitor before entering politics.
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Velasco
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« Reply #736 on: June 17, 2019, 05:31:32 am »

Manuela Carmena resigned her council seat this morning and quits politics. The former Mayor of Madrid met the press briefly, thanked journalists their kindness and told them she is no longer a public figure, took a look to the flowers at the balcony in Plaza Mayor and continued her stroll.
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tack50
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« Reply #737 on: June 17, 2019, 06:53:16 am »

Apparently it's official, Manuel Valls and Cs are finally splitting. The reason being how Colau got elected mayor with the support of the Valls-linked independents against the will of Cs.

Their joint list got 6 Councillors in the last local election. 3 of them are independents with close ties to Valls (Valls himself; Celestino Corbacho, a former Labour minister under Zapaptero and Eva Parera, a former Senator for CiU).

The 3 "proper" Cs councillors will form their own group separate from the 3 Valls-linked independents. I wonder if a hypothetical Manuel Valls led party would gain any traction in Catalonia or if this is the end of Valls' political career (from PM of France to a splitter councillor in a Spanish town hall!)

https://www.europapress.es/nacional/noticia-ciudadanos-rompe-valls-barcelona-separa-tres-concejales-apoyo-colau-20190617133800.html
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Velasco
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« Reply #738 on: June 17, 2019, 08:01:32 am »

Manuel Valls had already warned he would break with Cs once the deals with Vox in Madrid and elsewhere crystallised. Claiming now that Cs breaks with Valls because he voted for Colau, as he had warned already, strikes to me another sample of political cynicism.

The Valls move prevented that Barcelona becomes the capital of a non-existing republic ruled by a "reborn separatist" who displays the zeal of the convert. Valls chose what he considers the lesser evil. That's what politics is about. I never liked Valls very much, but in my opinion his decision is worthy of praise.

Right now there are problems within the Colón Triumvirate in Madrid, because Vox is demanding its share in local government and more visibility against the Cs wishes...
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« Reply #739 on: June 18, 2019, 04:05:43 am »
« Edited: June 18, 2019, 04:09:47 am by Velasco »

Ciudadanos breaks with Manuel Valls

https://www.politico.eu/article/spains-ciudadanos-manuel-valls/#superComments

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Spain’s liberal Ciudadanos has cut ties with Manuel Valls after the former French prime minister supported the leftist Ada Colau for Barcelona mayor.

Valls — who was born in Barcelona, grew up in France and is a French citizen — had himself run for mayor under a common banner with Ciudadanos, but Colau’s party and a separatist party came out on top.

Valls said he and his representatives supported Colau when city hall members voted for a new mayor over the weekend because he didn’t want a separatist in office, but Ciudadanos representatives opted to cast blank ballots, according to El País.

On Monday, a spokeswoman for Ciudadanos said it had officially cut ties with Valls and its representatives would no longer work with him, arguing there was “very little difference” between Colau and the separatists’ mayoral candidate.

Though Colau is not a separatist, Ciudadanos has taken issue with her support for Catalan secessionists jailed during a trial over their push for independence.

"We were right [not to support Colau] when we saw that her first decision was to put on the yellow ribbon," said Ciudadanos spokeswoman Inés Arrimadas, referring to a symbol that has been worn to show support for the jailed politicians and which Colau put up at city hall. Arrimadas said that if a pro-separatist politician became mayor, they would have done the same.

“We want our own voice in the city hall of Barcelona,"Arrimadas said.

The relationship between Albert Rivera and Manuel Valls is strained since months ago, to the point the Cs leader didn't participate in the Barcelona campaign with his star candidate. Rivera and Valls haven't talked in months, being Inés Arrimadas the main contact between the former French PM and the Cs leadership. The cause of disagreement is obviously the association between Cs and Vox that began after regional elections in Andalusia. Valls attended the Colón Square rally in February,  but refused to come on stage with the Vox representatives. He claimed being there in defence of the Spanish Constitution and not to attack the government. Valls already threatened to break with Cs once the deals with PP and Vox in Madrid crystallized. In previous days he exchanged praising tweets with acting Aragon premier Javier Lambán (PSOE). There are rumours pointing to the possible creation of a new centrist force in Catalonia led or participated by Valls, but they have been ruled out. In any case there's an empty space in Catalan politics ranging from pragmatic nationalists to moderate Catalanists wanting to remain in Spain. Middle-ground options on the national question, to the left and the right side of the spectrum, have been overwhelmed by the polarization created by the procés (Catalan separatist drive)
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« Reply #740 on: June 18, 2019, 04:38:40 am »

The question is when Arrimadas will wake up and realise she's progressive again...before or after her party heads for the PP-shaped electoral gutter in their province of birth.
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« Reply #741 on: June 18, 2019, 02:06:56 pm »
« Edited: June 18, 2019, 04:15:31 pm by Velasco »

The question is when Arrimadas will wake up and realise she's progressive again...before or after her party heads for the PP-shaped electoral gutter in their province of birth.

I had some hopes placed in Arrimadas, but I lost my faith in her. Cs is not as monolithic as it appears, there are some "social-liberals" who are not very happy with the coalition policies. Party founder Francisco de Carreras is demanding Rivera a correction, in order that Cs abstains in the investiture of Sánchez. Allegedly there is a strong pressure from the business world in the same direction, because PSOE-Cs is preferable for economic powers to a government dependant on Podemos and ERC. However, Rivera clings to the idea of becoming the leader of the Spanish Right and his leadership in Cs is undisputed. Arrimadas is not showing signs of independence, her move to Madrid didn't pay off and weakened Cs in Catalonia. Manuel Valls could try to fill that void, if rumours on a new party "inspired"* by him are true. Apparently the business world that backed Rivera is now in love with Valls...

*Valls would be the one of the mentors of the new party, but not the leader. Apparently the proposed name is Lliga Democratica ("Democratic League") and it'd be a centre-right catalanist force. Councilor Eva Parera could be one of the visible leaders and Valls would remain formally as the leader of his local party Barcelona pel Canvi. In fact, the BpC municipal group is reduced to Valls and Parera, because Celestino Corbacho joined the Cs group today as an independent.
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tack50
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« Reply #742 on: June 19, 2019, 07:01:09 am »

Today IMOP-El Confidencial published an extremely interesting poll regarding monarchy vs republic in Spain. It is no secret that the Spanish monarchy is by far the most unpopular and controversial one in Europe. However monarchists still seem to keep a narrow lead

Top line

Republic: 46%
Monarchy: 51%
Undecided: 3%

Crosstabs

Men: Republic 50-47
Women: Monarchy 42-54

18-24 year olds: Republic 70-26
25-34 year olds: Republic 55-45
35-44 year olds: Republic 52-45
45-54 year olds: Monarchy 44-55
55-64 year olds: Monarchy 36-61
65+ year olds: Monarchy 36-58

Andalucia: Monarchy 24-75
Madrid: Monarchy 62-37
Rest of Spain: Monarchy 39-56
Valencia: Republic 50-50
Galicia: Republic 52-46
Basque Country: Republic 71-25
Catalonia: Republic 74-22

PP voters: Monarchy 8-91
Cs voters: Monarchy 17-83
Vox voters: Monarchy 18-82
PSOE voters: Republic 52-45
UP voters: Republic 86-9

https://www.vanitatis.elconfidencial.com/casas-reales/2019-06-19/encuesta-vanitatis-felipe-letizia-monarquia-republica-espana-cataluna_2075143/
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yeah_93
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« Reply #743 on: June 19, 2019, 09:41:52 am »

In a fun turn of events, C's got their candidate elected as mayor in my city (Palencia), thanks to some wacky negotiations with the PP in order for the right to retain the Presidency of Castile and Leon. This, despite the fact that C's only got 12% of the vote in the election and only 3 councilors (out of 25). Man, this country's politics never cease to amaze me.
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Velasco
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« Reply #744 on: June 19, 2019, 05:22:27 pm »

In a fun turn of events, C's got their candidate elected as mayor in my city (Palencia), thanks to some wacky negotiations with the PP in order for the right to retain the Presidency of Castile and Leon. This, despite the fact that C's only got 12% of the vote in the election and only 3 councilors (out of 25). Man, this country's politics never cease to amaze me.

PP rewarded Cs Burgos and Palencia, yes. PSOE and Cs made some weird agreements in certain municipalities of Castile-La Mancha, but such alliances were the exception and the deals with PP and Vox were the norm. The case of Palencia pales in comparison with the amazing events that took place in Melilla, though. The longtime mayor-president of that North African autonomous city, the PP candidate Juan José Imbroda, was replaced by the only Cs councilor Eduardo de Castro. The Cs candidate was backed by the Coalition for Melilla (CpM) and the PSOE, while Imbroda was backed by his party and Vox. The inaugural session at the Melilla Town Hall was tense, some people called "traitor" to the new mayor and Imbroda (19 years in office) bullied him when they crossed paths.

Results in Melilla:

PP 37.8% 10 councilors
CpM 30.6% 8 councilors
PSOE 14.4% 4 councilors
Vox 7.8% 2 councilors
Cs 5.5% 1 councilor 
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Velasco
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« Reply #745 on: June 21, 2019, 03:00:56 am »
« Edited: June 21, 2019, 09:05:28 am by Velasco »

Manuel Valls: “With Vox you end up getting your hands dirty, and to some extent, your soul”

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/06/20/inenglish/1561019292_995673.html

Quote
Former French Prime Minister Manuel Valls admits he is upset that the center-right party Ciudadanos (Citizens) has broken the coalition that was formed nine months ago to support Valls’ bid for Barcelona mayor. On Monday, Ciudadanos announced that its 13-member executive committee had decided to break with the Barcelona-born politician for helping Ada Colau, of the leftist Barcelona en Comú party (the regional branch of Podemos), get reelected as the mayor of Barcelona – a decision Valls made to stop City Hall falling into the hands of the pro-independence Catalan Republican Left (ERC).

But the tensions run deeper. Valls has been a vocal critic against making deals with the far-right party Vox, whose support Ciudadanos and the right-wing Popular Party (PP) need if they are to take power in several municipal and regional governments – including the Madrid region.

The first moment of tension arose over a protest in Madrid’s central Colón square in February called by the PP, Ciudadanos and Vox to demand the resignation of acting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE). Valls’ team had said he would not attend the event, but a few hours later, facing pressure from Ciudadanos, he confirmed he would be present to defend the Spanish Constitution – not to push for Sánchez’s resignation. Valls also refused to take the stage to have his photo taken alongside members of the PP, Ciudadanos and Vox (...)


PSOE reached an agreement with New Canaries, Podemos and the Casimiro Curbelo's group to govern the Canary Islands. Ängel Víctor Torres will be the second socialist premier since the establishment of the Canarian autonomous government. This deal puts an end to 26 years of governments led by the Canary Coalition (CC), whose establishment was the result the amalgamation of several parties (AIC, CDS, ICAN and AM) that seized power through a no confidence motion against socialist premier Jerónimo Saavedra in 1993. The result of the 2019 elections placed the cacique of La Gomera island Casimiro Curbelo as the kingmaker. Curbelo is a former socialist who left the party in 2011 after an incident involving the senator for La Gomera and his son in a sauna located in Madrid. He could have supported the CC candidate and acting premier Fernando Clavijo, since his group has been propping up the CC minority government alongside PP. Additionally Curbelo and Clavijo have befriended. However, Fernando Clavijo is under investigation for an affair that took place during his tenure as Mayor of La Laguna (Tenerife). For that reason Cs rejected to back a deal between CC, PP and ASG with Clavijo as candidate. Given that a CC-led government lacked a majority and the last hour desperate attempts to negotiate an alternative failed, Curbelo decided to seal a pact with the Left. This is a major setback for CC, in addition to the loss of Santa Cruz de Tenerife and La laguna (both elected PSOE mayors) and the possible loss of several Cabildos including Tenerife.

Similarly PSOE made a preliminary agreement to govern the Balearic Islands with Podemos and the "eco-sovereigntist" MÉS.

PSOE and UP will form a coalition government in La Rioja.

The agreement between PP and Cs in Castile and León is almost sealed. This deal entails that PP awarded Cs with the mayoralty of Palencia and Burgos, but the latter elected a PSOE mayor because Vox failed. The agreement with PP was imposed by the Cs national leadership, despite the regional candidate preferred a deal with the PSOE and put an end to 32 years of conservative governments.

The situation in Navarre is complex. Socialists are trying to reach an agreement with Geroa Bai (moderate Basque nationalists), Podemos and IU. This coalition needs the collaboration of EH Bildu (Basque separatists), either affirmative first vote or abstention in the second vote. The PSOE rejects to negotiate with EH Bildu, a political force that bears the stigma of being the "heir of ETA". Dealing with EH Bildu in Navarre creates problems to the PSOE in the rest of Spain, so negotiations are always very difficult. However, the parties involved managed to reach a complicated formula to negotiate the election of the speaker (GBai) and the composition of the regional parliament's bureau, avoiding direct contact between PSOE and EH Bildu. This could be the prelude of a similar arrangement in the election of the regional government, which would help to secure the PNV support in the investiture of Pedro Sánchez but also would entail the UPN deputies vote against.
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« Reply #746 on: June 22, 2019, 12:13:10 pm »

Invymark poll:
PSOE:35.9% (up 7.2%)
PP:15.1% (down 1.6%)
C's:14.0% (down 1.9%)
UP:12.9% (down 1.4%)
VOX:8.1% (down 2.2%)
20 point lead for Pedro Sánchez, if true puts pressure on C's, PP and UP to let him govern in exchange for nothing.
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Velasco
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« Reply #747 on: June 24, 2019, 07:46:42 am »
« Edited: June 25, 2019, 07:15:45 am by Velasco »

Cs parliamentary spokesman for economic affairs Toni Roldán leaves the party, arguing that its turn to the right represents a high cost for Spain. Roldán considers that Cs is betraying its founding principles: reformism, regeneration or fight against corruption and fight against nationalism. Roldán is an economist disciple of Luis Garicano, the leader of the Cs delegation in the EP. He was member of the Cs executive committee, responsible for the economic platform and deputy for Barcelona.  Major setback for Albert Rivera and his strategy
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tack50
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« Reply #748 on: June 24, 2019, 09:51:55 am »

Cs parliamentary spokesman for economic affairs Toni Roldan leaves the party, arguing that its turn to the right represents a high cost for Spain. Roldan considers that Cs is betraying its founding principles: reformism, regeneration or fight against corruption and fight against nationalism. Roldan is an economist disciple of Luis Garicano, the leader of the Cs delegation in the EP. He was member of the Cs executive committee, responsible for the economic platform and deputy for Barcelona.  Major setback for Albert Rivera and his strategy

To add to this, Javier Nart, Cs' former leader in the EU parliament has also left the party.

The "moderate" faction in Cs seems quite angry at the party leadership for their deals with PP and rejecting almost all cooperation with PSOE
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« Reply #749 on: June 27, 2019, 06:59:26 am »

Electomanía' online panel based-polls are back, reflecting a significant fall of Cs and UP, the PSOE maintaining the first place, while great recovery by PP, and unlike other pollsters, Vox does not fall so strong.

PSOE 32,1% (138)
PP 20,2% (89)
Cs 12,5% (37)
UP 12,2% (32)
Vox 9,0% (18)

Meanwhile, the daily drama for the formation of government continues, with the threat of an electoral repetition, as the blockade continues between forces, either to enter the government or to facilitate abstentions.
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