Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #725 on: June 16, 2019, 06:26:23 AM »
« edited: June 16, 2019, 06:33:32 AM by tack50 »

ABC has a great map of who ended up as mayor in each of the 52 provincial capitals

https://www.abc.es/media/espana/2019/06/16/ayntamientos-capitales-provincia-kO8E--1248x698@abc.jpg

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xelas81
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« Reply #726 on: June 16, 2019, 08:55:45 AM »

ABC has a great map of who ended up as mayor in each of the 52 provincial capitals


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How did IU win Zamora?
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #727 on: June 16, 2019, 08:57:36 AM »

ABC has a great map of who ended up as mayor in each of the 52 provincial capitals


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How did IU win Zamora?

Back in 2015, Podemos did not run any candidates there, so IU worked as the default option for those voters. Not only that but the mayor ran a really good campaign and ended up winning.

The mayor turned out to be extremely popular and he won a landslide this year (getting an overall majority!) despite Zamora's partisanship. It also helps that Zamora is a small town of only 60 000 inhabitants, which makes "retail politics" easier.

Another extremely popular mayor who won a huge majority is PSOE in Vigo (a large Galician city, albeit not a provincial capital), who got 67% of the vote and 20/27 Councillors! (though Vigo is actually a left wing city, though he still won a massive landlide vastly overperforming PSOE's baseline)
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Velasco
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« Reply #728 on: June 16, 2019, 09:30:22 AM »

The personal factor often weighs more than ideology in local elections and Zamora is a clear example. IU mayor Francisco Guarido forged his reputation as a hard-working opposition councilor. The sapping of the PP local government and the infighting within local PSOE paved the way for Guarido in 2015. Guarido remains loyal to the IU banner and rejects alliances with Podemos. His work as mayor was approved by the neighbours of this middle-sized conservative town in Castile and Guarido was easily reelected this year. The only IU mayor in a provincial capital was a school janitor before entering politics.
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« Reply #729 on: June 17, 2019, 05:31:32 AM »

Manuela Carmena resigned her council seat this morning and quits politics. The former Mayor of Madrid met the press briefly, thanked journalists their kindness and told them she is no longer a public figure, took a look to the flowers at the balcony in Plaza Mayor and continued her stroll.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #730 on: June 17, 2019, 06:53:16 AM »

Apparently it's official, Manuel Valls and Cs are finally splitting. The reason being how Colau got elected mayor with the support of the Valls-linked independents against the will of Cs.

Their joint list got 6 Councillors in the last local election. 3 of them are independents with close ties to Valls (Valls himself; Celestino Corbacho, a former Labour minister under Zapaptero and Eva Parera, a former Senator for CiU).

The 3 "proper" Cs councillors will form their own group separate from the 3 Valls-linked independents. I wonder if a hypothetical Manuel Valls led party would gain any traction in Catalonia or if this is the end of Valls' political career (from PM of France to a splitter councillor in a Spanish town hall!)

https://www.europapress.es/nacional/noticia-ciudadanos-rompe-valls-barcelona-separa-tres-concejales-apoyo-colau-20190617133800.html
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Velasco
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« Reply #731 on: June 17, 2019, 08:01:32 AM »

Manuel Valls had already warned he would break with Cs once the deals with Vox in Madrid and elsewhere crystallised. Claiming now that Cs breaks with Valls because he voted for Colau, as he had warned already, strikes to me another sample of political cynicism.

The Valls move prevented that Barcelona becomes the capital of a non-existing republic ruled by a "reborn separatist" who displays the zeal of the convert. Valls chose what he considers the lesser evil. That's what politics is about. I never liked Valls very much, but in my opinion his decision is worthy of praise.

Right now there are problems within the Colón Triumvirate in Madrid, because Vox is demanding its share in local government and more visibility against the Cs wishes...
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« Reply #732 on: June 18, 2019, 04:05:43 AM »
« Edited: June 18, 2019, 04:09:47 AM by Velasco »

Ciudadanos breaks with Manuel Valls

https://www.politico.eu/article/spains-ciudadanos-manuel-valls/#superComments

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Spain’s liberal Ciudadanos has cut ties with Manuel Valls after the former French prime minister supported the leftist Ada Colau for Barcelona mayor.

Valls — who was born in Barcelona, grew up in France and is a French citizen — had himself run for mayor under a common banner with Ciudadanos, but Colau’s party and a separatist party came out on top.

Valls said he and his representatives supported Colau when city hall members voted for a new mayor over the weekend because he didn’t want a separatist in office, but Ciudadanos representatives opted to cast blank ballots, according to El País.

On Monday, a spokeswoman for Ciudadanos said it had officially cut ties with Valls and its representatives would no longer work with him, arguing there was “very little difference” between Colau and the separatists’ mayoral candidate.

Though Colau is not a separatist, Ciudadanos has taken issue with her support for Catalan secessionists jailed during a trial over their push for independence.

"We were right [not to support Colau] when we saw that her first decision was to put on the yellow ribbon," said Ciudadanos spokeswoman Inés Arrimadas, referring to a symbol that has been worn to show support for the jailed politicians and which Colau put up at city hall. Arrimadas said that if a pro-separatist politician became mayor, they would have done the same.

“We want our own voice in the city hall of Barcelona,"Arrimadas said.

The relationship between Albert Rivera and Manuel Valls is strained since months ago, to the point the Cs leader didn't participate in the Barcelona campaign with his star candidate. Rivera and Valls haven't talked in months, being Inés Arrimadas the main contact between the former French PM and the Cs leadership. The cause of disagreement is obviously the association between Cs and Vox that began after regional elections in Andalusia. Valls attended the Colón Square rally in February,  but refused to come on stage with the Vox representatives. He claimed being there in defence of the Spanish Constitution and not to attack the government. Valls already threatened to break with Cs once the deals with PP and Vox in Madrid crystallized. In previous days he exchanged praising tweets with acting Aragon premier Javier Lambán (PSOE). There are rumours pointing to the possible creation of a new centrist force in Catalonia led or participated by Valls, but they have been ruled out. In any case there's an empty space in Catalan politics ranging from pragmatic nationalists to moderate Catalanists wanting to remain in Spain. Middle-ground options on the national question, to the left and the right side of the spectrum, have been overwhelmed by the polarization created by the procés (Catalan separatist drive)
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Zinneke
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« Reply #733 on: June 18, 2019, 04:38:40 AM »

The question is when Arrimadas will wake up and realise she's progressive again...before or after her party heads for the PP-shaped electoral gutter in their province of birth.
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Velasco
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« Reply #734 on: June 18, 2019, 02:06:56 PM »
« Edited: June 18, 2019, 04:15:31 PM by Velasco »

The question is when Arrimadas will wake up and realise she's progressive again...before or after her party heads for the PP-shaped electoral gutter in their province of birth.

I had some hopes placed in Arrimadas, but I lost my faith in her. Cs is not as monolithic as it appears, there are some "social-liberals" who are not very happy with the coalition policies. Party founder Francisco de Carreras is demanding Rivera a correction, in order that Cs abstains in the investiture of Sánchez. Allegedly there is a strong pressure from the business world in the same direction, because PSOE-Cs is preferable for economic powers to a government dependant on Podemos and ERC. However, Rivera clings to the idea of becoming the leader of the Spanish Right and his leadership in Cs is undisputed. Arrimadas is not showing signs of independence, her move to Madrid didn't pay off and weakened Cs in Catalonia. Manuel Valls could try to fill that void, if rumours on a new party "inspired"* by him are true. Apparently the business world that backed Rivera is now in love with Valls...

*Valls would be the one of the mentors of the new party, but not the leader. Apparently the proposed name is Lliga Democratica ("Democratic League") and it'd be a centre-right catalanist force. Councilor Eva Parera could be one of the visible leaders and Valls would remain formally as the leader of his local party Barcelona pel Canvi. In fact, the BpC municipal group is reduced to Valls and Parera, because Celestino Corbacho joined the Cs group today as an independent.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #735 on: June 19, 2019, 07:01:09 AM »

Today IMOP-El Confidencial published an extremely interesting poll regarding monarchy vs republic in Spain. It is no secret that the Spanish monarchy is by far the most unpopular and controversial one in Europe. However monarchists still seem to keep a narrow lead

Top line

Republic: 46%
Monarchy: 51%
Undecided: 3%

Crosstabs

Men: Republic 50-47
Women: Monarchy 42-54

18-24 year olds: Republic 70-26
25-34 year olds: Republic 55-45
35-44 year olds: Republic 52-45
45-54 year olds: Monarchy 44-55
55-64 year olds: Monarchy 36-61
65+ year olds: Monarchy 36-58

Andalucia: Monarchy 24-75
Madrid: Monarchy 62-37
Rest of Spain: Monarchy 39-56
Valencia: Republic 50-50
Galicia: Republic 52-46
Basque Country: Republic 71-25
Catalonia: Republic 74-22

PP voters: Monarchy 8-91
Cs voters: Monarchy 17-83
Vox voters: Monarchy 18-82
PSOE voters: Republic 52-45
UP voters: Republic 86-9

https://www.vanitatis.elconfidencial.com/casas-reales/2019-06-19/encuesta-vanitatis-felipe-letizia-monarquia-republica-espana-cataluna_2075143/
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Skye
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« Reply #736 on: June 19, 2019, 09:41:52 AM »

In a fun turn of events, C's got their candidate elected as mayor in my city (Palencia), thanks to some wacky negotiations with the PP in order for the right to retain the Presidency of Castile and Leon. This, despite the fact that C's only got 12% of the vote in the election and only 3 councilors (out of 25). Man, this country's politics never cease to amaze me.
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Velasco
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« Reply #737 on: June 19, 2019, 05:22:27 PM »

In a fun turn of events, C's got their candidate elected as mayor in my city (Palencia), thanks to some wacky negotiations with the PP in order for the right to retain the Presidency of Castile and Leon. This, despite the fact that C's only got 12% of the vote in the election and only 3 councilors (out of 25). Man, this country's politics never cease to amaze me.

PP rewarded Cs Burgos and Palencia, yes. PSOE and Cs made some weird agreements in certain municipalities of Castile-La Mancha, but such alliances were the exception and the deals with PP and Vox were the norm. The case of Palencia pales in comparison with the amazing events that took place in Melilla, though. The longtime mayor-president of that North African autonomous city, the PP candidate Juan José Imbroda, was replaced by the only Cs councilor Eduardo de Castro. The Cs candidate was backed by the Coalition for Melilla (CpM) and the PSOE, while Imbroda was backed by his party and Vox. The inaugural session at the Melilla Town Hall was tense, some people called "traitor" to the new mayor and Imbroda (19 years in office) bullied him when they crossed paths.

Results in Melilla:

PP 37.8% 10 councilors
CpM 30.6% 8 councilors
PSOE 14.4% 4 councilors
Vox 7.8% 2 councilors
Cs 5.5% 1 councilor 
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Velasco
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« Reply #738 on: June 21, 2019, 03:00:56 AM »
« Edited: June 21, 2019, 09:05:28 AM by Velasco »

Manuel Valls: “With Vox you end up getting your hands dirty, and to some extent, your soul”

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/06/20/inenglish/1561019292_995673.html

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Former French Prime Minister Manuel Valls admits he is upset that the center-right party Ciudadanos (Citizens) has broken the coalition that was formed nine months ago to support Valls’ bid for Barcelona mayor. On Monday, Ciudadanos announced that its 13-member executive committee had decided to break with the Barcelona-born politician for helping Ada Colau, of the leftist Barcelona en Comú party (the regional branch of Podemos), get reelected as the mayor of Barcelona – a decision Valls made to stop City Hall falling into the hands of the pro-independence Catalan Republican Left (ERC).

But the tensions run deeper. Valls has been a vocal critic against making deals with the far-right party Vox, whose support Ciudadanos and the right-wing Popular Party (PP) need if they are to take power in several municipal and regional governments – including the Madrid region.

The first moment of tension arose over a protest in Madrid’s central Colón square in February called by the PP, Ciudadanos and Vox to demand the resignation of acting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE). Valls’ team had said he would not attend the event, but a few hours later, facing pressure from Ciudadanos, he confirmed he would be present to defend the Spanish Constitution – not to push for Sánchez’s resignation. Valls also refused to take the stage to have his photo taken alongside members of the PP, Ciudadanos and Vox (...)


PSOE reached an agreement with New Canaries, Podemos and the Casimiro Curbelo's group to govern the Canary Islands. Ängel Víctor Torres will be the second socialist premier since the establishment of the Canarian autonomous government. This deal puts an end to 26 years of governments led by the Canary Coalition (CC), whose establishment was the result the amalgamation of several parties (AIC, CDS, ICAN and AM) that seized power through a no confidence motion against socialist premier Jerónimo Saavedra in 1993. The result of the 2019 elections placed the cacique of La Gomera island Casimiro Curbelo as the kingmaker. Curbelo is a former socialist who left the party in 2011 after an incident involving the senator for La Gomera and his son in a sauna located in Madrid. He could have supported the CC candidate and acting premier Fernando Clavijo, since his group has been propping up the CC minority government alongside PP. Additionally Curbelo and Clavijo have befriended. However, Fernando Clavijo is under investigation for an affair that took place during his tenure as Mayor of La Laguna (Tenerife). For that reason Cs rejected to back a deal between CC, PP and ASG with Clavijo as candidate. Given that a CC-led government lacked a majority and the last hour desperate attempts to negotiate an alternative failed, Curbelo decided to seal a pact with the Left. This is a major setback for CC, in addition to the loss of Santa Cruz de Tenerife and La laguna (both elected PSOE mayors) and the possible loss of several Cabildos including Tenerife.

Similarly PSOE made a preliminary agreement to govern the Balearic Islands with Podemos and the "eco-sovereigntist" MÉS.

PSOE and UP will form a coalition government in La Rioja.

The agreement between PP and Cs in Castile and León is almost sealed. This deal entails that PP awarded Cs with the mayoralty of Palencia and Burgos, but the latter elected a PSOE mayor because Vox failed. The agreement with PP was imposed by the Cs national leadership, despite the regional candidate preferred a deal with the PSOE and put an end to 32 years of conservative governments.

The situation in Navarre is complex. Socialists are trying to reach an agreement with Geroa Bai (moderate Basque nationalists), Podemos and IU. This coalition needs the collaboration of EH Bildu (Basque separatists), either affirmative first vote or abstention in the second vote. The PSOE rejects to negotiate with EH Bildu, a political force that bears the stigma of being the "heir of ETA". Dealing with EH Bildu in Navarre creates problems to the PSOE in the rest of Spain, so negotiations are always very difficult. However, the parties involved managed to reach a complicated formula to negotiate the election of the speaker (GBai) and the composition of the regional parliament's bureau, avoiding direct contact between PSOE and EH Bildu. This could be the prelude of a similar arrangement in the election of the regional government, which would help to secure the PNV support in the investiture of Pedro Sánchez but also would entail the UPN deputies vote against.
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« Reply #739 on: June 22, 2019, 12:13:10 PM »

Invymark poll:
PSOE:35.9% (up 7.2%)
PP:15.1% (down 1.6%)
C's:14.0% (down 1.9%)
UP:12.9% (down 1.4%)
VOX:8.1% (down 2.2%)
20 point lead for Pedro Sánchez, if true puts pressure on C's, PP and UP to let him govern in exchange for nothing.
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Velasco
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« Reply #740 on: June 24, 2019, 07:46:42 AM »
« Edited: June 25, 2019, 07:15:45 AM by Velasco »

Cs parliamentary spokesman for economic affairs Toni Roldán leaves the party, arguing that its turn to the right represents a high cost for Spain. Roldán considers that Cs is betraying its founding principles: reformism, regeneration or fight against corruption and fight against nationalism. Roldán is an economist disciple of Luis Garicano, the leader of the Cs delegation in the EP. He was member of the Cs executive committee, responsible for the economic platform and deputy for Barcelona.  Major setback for Albert Rivera and his strategy
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #741 on: June 24, 2019, 09:51:55 AM »

Cs parliamentary spokesman for economic affairs Toni Roldan leaves the party, arguing that its turn to the right represents a high cost for Spain. Roldan considers that Cs is betraying its founding principles: reformism, regeneration or fight against corruption and fight against nationalism. Roldan is an economist disciple of Luis Garicano, the leader of the Cs delegation in the EP. He was member of the Cs executive committee, responsible for the economic platform and deputy for Barcelona.  Major setback for Albert Rivera and his strategy

To add to this, Javier Nart, Cs' former leader in the EU parliament has also left the party.

The "moderate" faction in Cs seems quite angry at the party leadership for their deals with PP and rejecting almost all cooperation with PSOE
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« Reply #742 on: June 27, 2019, 06:59:26 AM »

Electomanía' online panel based-polls are back, reflecting a significant fall of Cs and UP, the PSOE maintaining the first place, while great recovery by PP, and unlike other pollsters, Vox does not fall so strong.

PSOE 32,1% (138)
PP 20,2% (89)
Cs 12,5% (37)
UP 12,2% (32)
Vox 9,0% (18)

Meanwhile, the daily drama for the formation of government continues, with the threat of an electoral repetition, as the blockade continues between forces, either to enter the government or to facilitate abstentions.
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« Reply #743 on: June 28, 2019, 10:28:10 AM »

Pedro Sánchez heads investiture debate in July without having secured the UP support. Negotiations between PSOE and its "preferential partner" stalled, as both parties have different points of view concerning the elephant in the room, that is to say, the entry of Pablo Iglesias and his fellows in the government

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/06/27/inenglish/1561623443_293514.html


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  The political situation in Spain remains deadlocked with the Socialist Party (PSOE) and left-wing Unidas Podemos group still unable to reach an agreement that would allow Pedro Sánchez to be reelected as prime minister.

  Sánchez and Unidas Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias had agreed to negotiate a “government of cooperation” but are refusing to budge from their respective positions over what this means. The PSOE leader is willing to offer Iglesias mid-level government positions but the anti-austerity chief wants Cabinet positions that will reflect his party’s weight relative to the PSOE in parliament (42 seats versus 123) – an idea Sánchez has rejected.

In an effort to break the deadlock, the acting prime minister announced that he will set a date for the investiture vote with the speaker of Congress, Meritxell Batet, on Tuesday. While the government says no decision has yet been made, the vote is likely to happen on July 16.

But the move has not had the desired effect. On Wednesday, Iglesias warned that the first investiture vote, where an absolute majority of 176 votes is needed, will fail. “An agreement is closer than it seems, although we will have to wait two-and-a-half months,” he said (...)
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #744 on: June 29, 2019, 12:55:10 AM »

Pedro Sánchez heads investiture debate in July without having secured the UP support. Negotiations between PSOE and its "preferential partner" stalled, as both parties have different points of view concerning the elephant in the room, that is to say, the entry of Pablo Iglesias and his fellows in the government

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/06/27/inenglish/1561623443_293514.html


Quote
 The political situation in Spain remains deadlocked with the Socialist Party (PSOE) and left-wing Unidas Podemos group still unable to reach an agreement that would allow Pedro Sánchez to be reelected as prime minister.

  Sánchez and Unidas Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias had agreed to negotiate a “government of cooperation” but are refusing to budge from their respective positions over what this means. The PSOE leader is willing to offer Iglesias mid-level government positions but the anti-austerity chief wants Cabinet positions that will reflect his party’s weight relative to the PSOE in parliament (42 seats versus 123) – an idea Sánchez has rejected.

In an effort to break the deadlock, the acting prime minister announced that he will set a date for the investiture vote with the speaker of Congress, Meritxell Batet, on Tuesday. While the government says no decision has yet been made, the vote is likely to happen on July 16.

But the move has not had the desired effect. On Wednesday, Iglesias warned that the first investiture vote, where an absolute majority of 176 votes is needed, will fail. “An agreement is closer than it seems, although we will have to wait two-and-a-half months,” he said (...)


Pedro Sanchez is very good at politics. I'm surprised he is having this much trouble sweetening the deal for Podemos. I susoect that PSOE really wouldn't mind new elections given their rise in the polls. Iglesias, who is not so good at politics, perhaps doesn't understand this.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #745 on: June 29, 2019, 06:14:46 AM »

To be honest there is a huge almost unsavable difference: Podemos wants to get cabinet ministers in the government while PSOE wants a minority government.

So someone has to cave.

I wonder, if we go to a 2nd election, will Sánchez be blamed for it? I think polls are overestimating Sánchez a bit.

Then again back in 2016 we saw the largest party (PP) go up, but the party blamed for the election repetition (Podemos) did go down.
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« Reply #746 on: June 29, 2019, 09:20:59 AM »

To be honest there is a huge almost unsavable difference: Podemos wants to get cabinet ministers in the government while PSOE wants a minority government.

So someone has to cave.

I wonder, if we go to a 2nd election, will Sánchez be blamed for it? I think polls are overestimating Sánchez a bit.

Then again back in 2016 we saw the largest party (PP) go up, but the party blamed for the election repetition (Podemos) did go down.

I think that the polling bubble that Sanchez sits on is liable to pop at any moment, and that he cannot possibly be dumb enough to believe that it is sure to last especially with PP also rising in the polls. A new election is likely to yield similar results with more seats for unlikely partner PP and less for likely partners UP and Cs. He is probably counting on Podemos' dive in the polls to freak them out into submission to a vote-and-supply deal.
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« Reply #747 on: June 29, 2019, 10:23:29 AM »

Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias are playing the "chicken game": there are two cars in collision course coming from the opposite sides of the road, the one who gets out first loses. Both have their reasons to defend their positions. Socialists feel uncomfortable with a coalition government for various reasons including lack of tradition, personal factors (focused on Pablo Iglesias) and affairs of state (crisis in Catalonia and differences between parties on the way to handle the situation). The main reason why Pablo Iglesias plays this game is that his presrnce in a coalition government could be his salvation. It would help him to silence opposition within Podemos and allies, as well as mitigate the effects of the bad electoral results. Also, being in the governnent would pave the way for a peaceful succession of Pablo Iglesias, to be replaced by his partner Irene Montero in Podemos leadership.

Apparently there are different points of view in the Pedro Sánchez entourage, regarding the possibility of fresh elections in autumn. Spin doctor Iván Redondo likes the idea, but minister and right hand José Luis Abalos is not so enthusiasmed
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #748 on: July 02, 2019, 06:49:35 AM »

Well, we finally have a date for Sánchez's investiture vote as PM. Round 1 will happen on the 22nd of July (50%+1 needed), and if that fails, round 2 will be held on the 25th of July (simple majority needed).

If both fail, the clock starts counting down to the 15th of September. If there is no government by then, a snap election gets automatically called, most likely for the 10th of November.

I can't imagine a repeat election actually happening, but I also have a hard time seeing Sánchez succeed. His demands and Podemos' demands are incompatible and Cs will not abstain. It is also possible Sánchez is seeing the polls and wanting to risk it for some reason.
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« Reply #749 on: July 02, 2019, 09:16:06 AM »

Even if Sánchez gets a bigger number in a hypothetical snap election (say, 30-35% of the vote), won't that be for naught if the PSOE doesn't get a majority of the seats? It'd be like what's going on right now.
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