Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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Skye
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« Reply #775 on: July 11, 2019, 03:04:49 AM »

Looks like a game of chicken between Podemos and PSOE seeing who will blink first.  Podemos is likely to lose seats so PSOE feels they have the upper hand, but an early election could precipitate a backlash and may not work in PSOE favour.
Also Enric Juliana (IMO the best political journalist in Spain) wrote that in case of a new election PP and Cs would establish alliances similars to the one in Navarra (Navarra Suma) in smaller provinces. That alone is enough to avoid a new election.

I don't think PP and Cs will establish an alliance. Cs is (unsuccessfully) trying to replace PP as the main party of the Spanish centre-right. Making an alliance would go against that objective.


I mean, not if you treat it as a long term goal instead of something that must be achieved immediately. They already fell to the PP this year, and (correct me if I'm wrong) it doesn't really look like they are poised to beat them in a hypothetical election.
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« Reply #776 on: July 11, 2019, 05:04:33 AM »

I think I may have asked this before but did CIS ever come out with an evaluation of the social traits of voters in the most recent parliamentary election? Previous data did indicate that VOX voters were quite distinct from right-wing populist voters in the rest of Europe.
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Velasco
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« Reply #777 on: July 11, 2019, 08:39:48 AM »

I think I may have asked this before but did CIS ever come out with an evaluation of the social traits of voters in the most recent parliamentary election? Previous data did indicate that VOX voters were quite distinct from right-wing populist voters in the rest of Europe.

According to the last CIS survey, 61.8% of the Vox voters is male. Unlike similar parties in the rest of Europe, Vox has little support in low income households. On the contrary, Vox is the party with the highest level of support in high income families. 63.6% voted for PP in the 2016 elections.

 Previous surveys highlighted other traits. The Vox average voter has 46 years, similar age to the Cs voter, younger than PP (60) or PSOE (55) and older than Podemos (44). The highest level of support is in the age group ranging between 35 and 44, while the support among the older than 65 is low (the oldest vote for PP). The level of education is above average, corresponding to the socioeconomic profile. Regarding professional activities, Vox has a very strong support among militaries and policemen (this was evident looking at certain precinct results in general elections). Other professions trail at great distance, being managers and farmers the following in importance. Unsurprisingly, the Vox voter is much more concerned about separatism in Catalonia than the average Spanish voter.
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Velasco
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« Reply #778 on: July 11, 2019, 10:46:32 PM »

Pedro Sánchez wants constitutional changes to prevent deadlocks. Differences between PSOE and UP remain.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/11/inenglish/1562859165_143284.html

Quote
Following another failed meeting on Tuesday between Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias, head of the leftist Unidas Podemos group, the acting PM said he would call Iglesias on Thursday to try to kick-start “stalled” negotiations. While Sánchez considers Iglesias his natural ally, he refuses the latter’s demand for a coalition government.

“A government needs absolute internal cohesion, and on matters of state there are deep discrepancies with Unidos Podemos,” said Sánchez on the morning talk show Los Desayunos de TVE.

One of these differences is over the crisis in Catalonia. “They talk about political prisoners and the PSOE does not, we say there are politicians in prison. It is evident that there are deep differences and discrepancies that could paralyze a joint government with Unidas Podemos due to internal contradictions. My responsibility is not just to guarantee the investiture, but the stability of government as well,” said Sánchez, who is facing a congressional vote in two weeks to get officially back into the prime minister’s office. So far, he lacks enough support to be successful.

Podemos has already offered to accept in writing any conditions set out by the PSOE in connection with the handling of the Catalan crisis. But the response by a Socialist leader at party headquarters on Monday was that “people also sign mortgages, and later don’t pay.”

Rather than a coalition government, the acting PM is suggesting that Unidas Podemos could propose independent candidates to hold some cabinet positions. “Honestly, to me it seems like the most sensible and generous offer in the current situation,” he said.

Sánchez offered Iglesias to appoint Podemos ministers with a "technical profile", but not members of the party leadership. The Podemos leader rejected the offer saying he doesn't accept vetoes.

Regarding the deadlocks in Madrid and Murcia, Cs prefers new elections to open the way of deals with socialists. Oranges are also unwilling to make further concessions to Vox, either signing three-way agreements or modifications in the deals already signed with the PP. They simply expect that Vox compromises.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #779 on: July 12, 2019, 11:32:54 AM »

Pedro Sánchez wants constitutional changes to prevent deadlocks. Differences between PSOE and UP remain.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/11/inenglish/1562859165_143284.html

Quote
Following another failed meeting on Tuesday between Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias, head of the leftist Unidas Podemos group, the acting PM said he would call Iglesias on Thursday to try to kick-start “stalled” negotiations. While Sánchez considers Iglesias his natural ally, he refuses the latter’s demand for a coalition government.

“A government needs absolute internal cohesion, and on matters of state there are deep discrepancies with Unidos Podemos,” said Sánchez on the morning talk show Los Desayunos de TVE.

One of these differences is over the crisis in Catalonia. “They talk about political prisoners and the PSOE does not, we say there are politicians in prison. It is evident that there are deep differences and discrepancies that could paralyze a joint government with Unidas Podemos due to internal contradictions. My responsibility is not just to guarantee the investiture, but the stability of government as well,” said Sánchez, who is facing a congressional vote in two weeks to get officially back into the prime minister’s office. So far, he lacks enough support to be successful.

Podemos has already offered to accept in writing any conditions set out by the PSOE in connection with the handling of the Catalan crisis. But the response by a Socialist leader at party headquarters on Monday was that “people also sign mortgages, and later don’t pay.”

Rather than a coalition government, the acting PM is suggesting that Unidas Podemos could propose independent candidates to hold some cabinet positions. “Honestly, to me it seems like the most sensible and generous offer in the current situation,” he said.

Sánchez offered Iglesias to appoint Podemos ministers with a "technical profile", but not members of the party leadership. The Podemos leader rejected the offer saying he doesn't accept vetoes.

Regarding the deadlocks in Madrid and Murcia, Cs prefers new elections to open the way of deals with socialists. Oranges are also unwilling to make further concessions to Vox, either signing three-way agreements or modifications in the deals already signed with the PP. They simply expect that Vox compromises.

The best way to solve this would be to switch to FTFP or AV as then you would have majority governments, but that seems unlikely.  But like Italy and Greece, any talk of bonus seats for largest party as that would help increase the odds of a majority while still retaining some proportionality.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #780 on: July 12, 2019, 06:44:20 PM »

To be honest I would much rather have FPTP or AV (or a 2 round system with single member districts like France) than a majority bonus.

IMO a majority bonus is dumb. If you want majoritarian governments switch to FPTP and that at least gives you regional representation and makes individual MPs actually matter instead of being party drones.

We could easily cut Congress to like 15 members if we just weighed their votes!
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Velasco
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« Reply #781 on: July 12, 2019, 07:45:32 PM »


The best way to solve this would be to switch to FTFP or AV as then you would have majority governments, but that seems unlikely.  But like Italy and Greece, any talk of bonus seats for largest party as that would help increase the odds of a majority while still retaining some proportionality.

The best way for me is that parties learn to reach compromises and forge agreements. I prefer MMP or PR to FPTP or majority bonus, because I think the former reflect better the people's will than the latter.

Regarding negotiations between PSOE and UP,  I think the main problem is the mutual distrust between Sánchez and Iglesias.  They have differences on econony and the policy towards Catalonia, but they are not irreconcilable. It's the personal factor what makes agreement harder. A possible compromise solution is that PSOE gives up the pretension to govern alone and Iglesias gives up his pretension to be Deputy PM.

Pablo Iglesias will call a plebiscite in order the Podemos grassroots approve his coalition policy, while Andalusian leader Teresa Rodríguez says she won't vote because questions are biased. Rodríguez and her faction oppose a coalition government and favour programmatic agreements similar to the existing in Portugal between PS and the leftist parties.

In other news, Vox is demanding the Madrid regional government the names of LGTB activists that give talks on diversity at schools. It seems obvious Vox aims is to create a "black list" and intimidate activists. Regional government says there are no lists because talks are extracurricular, as well providing that information is illegal. Cs didn't say a word against.
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« Reply #782 on: July 14, 2019, 05:14:38 PM »

El Mundo has an extremely interesting article regarding how different groups of people voted. Most of the data isn't new but it's still interesting:

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2019/07/14/5d28bc76fc6c83c84f8b45bc.html

Some notable stuff includes the vote by age. PSOE and especially PP get better results among older people (with a whopping 47% of PP voters being above 65 years old!), Cs and Vox get better results among the middle aged (35-54 roughly) and UP gets its best results among the young.

We also have data on the vote by ideology. Here the most notable thing is how Cs managed to beat PP among the "centre-right" (6/10) while PSOE won centrists (5/10). And unsurprisingly Vox did a lot of harm to PP among far right voters (7-10/10). Whereas Rajoy used to get huge percentages on that area (70% or more), PP only gets around 40% now.

Other data from the text of the article, organized by party:

PSOE
-52% of PSOE voters were women, compared to 55% in 2016
-PSOE has the lowest amount of voters with "Second stage of Secondary Education"* or university studies, though they have improved among this group compared to 2016
-1 in 3 PSOE voters were retired
-A majority of PSOE voters were either retired, unemployed or working class
-The average PSOE voter places himself as a 3.6/10 (where 1 is far left and 10 is far right)

*Second stage of Secondary education refers to people who completed all 12 years of schooling (in Spain only up to year 10 is mandatory), or who did an "intermediate level" vocational training program after year 10

PP
-47% of PP voters were above 65 years old
-53% of PP voters were women
-By education, a plurality of PP voters were people who had only completed primary school
-While Rajoy's electorate was dominated by the "old middle class" and "qualified working class"; Casado's electorate is richer, dominated by the "upper middle class" or the "new middle class"
-PP's voters place themselves as a 7/10

Cs
-Cs improved drastically among old voters (65+); although their voters are still mostly middle aged
-Cs performs slightly better among women than men
-Cs is the party with the most post-high school educated voters alongside UP, with 30% of Cs voters having a university degree.
-Cs performs well among the "unqualified working class" and "technicians and middle workers".
-Cs actually lost quite a bit among the unemployed
-The average Cs voter identifies as a 5.7/10; with people between 6 and 8 increasing and centrists and leftists going down

UP
-UP was the party with the biggest proportion of young voters (18-24) at 14% (compared to 9% for Spain at large)
-UP has more male voters than female voters
-Counter-intuitively, UP has the highest proportion of "upper class" and "upper middle class" voters; and actually improved among these voters. UP meanwhile went down among the "old middle class"
-UP, tied with Cs, had the highest proportion of students with post high school studies while it had the lowest proportion of voters with no education whatsoever
-1 in 10 UP voters were students, and UP went down quite a bit among the unemployed
-The average UP voter identifies as a 2.6/10

Vox
-Vox has the highest proportion of men and it's not even close, with 60% of Vox voters being male
-Vox performs best among the middle aged, with 30% of voters being between 35-44
-22% of Vox voters have post-high school education. This is higher than PSOE and PP but lower than Cs and UP
-Depending on the definition, up to 1 in 3 Vox voters can be considered working class
-26% of Vox voters consider themselves as far-right, compared to 3% for Spain at large.

So, here is my random profile of each party's "generic voter":

PSOE: Retired and relatively poor woman with only primary school education in rural Extremadura
PP: Retired and relatively wealthy woman with no education in rural Galicia
Cs: 50 year old middle ranked businesswoman with a college degree in Madrid
UP: The 22 year old son of a rich family, who lives and studies in Navarra
Vox: 40 year old working class man living in Murcia
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DL
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« Reply #783 on: July 14, 2019, 07:00:15 PM »

Why is Murcia so rightwing?
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Velasco
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« Reply #784 on: July 15, 2019, 07:59:52 AM »
« Edited: July 15, 2019, 08:06:17 AM by Velasco »

Pedro Sánchez says the deal with Podemos is dead in water

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/15/inenglish/1563184342_660104.html

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Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE) has announced that his talks with the leftist Unidas Podemos are over, dimming his chances of securing the necessary majority of votes in Congress on July 22 and 23 (...)

On Monday, Sánchez told the Cadena SER radio network that bilateral talks are over after he learned of the content of a internal consultation that Iglesias is about to hold, asking grassroots members what Podemos’ position should be at the investiture vote next week.

The Iglesias plebiscite angered Sánchez,  who claims it's a "masquerade" aimed tp justify the opposition to his investiture. Podemos membership is asked to choose between two options, neither of them including the last offer made by Sánchez: incorporation of Podemos ministers with a "technical profile". Sánchez will try to meet this week with the leaders of the three main opposition parties (including Iglesias, likely Cs leader will refuse), in order to ask them to abstain. PP and Cs already said they won't do it. Investiture is doomed to fail, apparently

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« Reply #785 on: July 15, 2019, 10:10:07 AM »
« Edited: July 15, 2019, 02:20:23 PM by Lumine »

How typically irresponsible of Sánchez. It's hard to find his attitude believable regarding A. abstention of C's or PP, considering the man spent months on the whole "No es No" attitude towards Rajoy and even resigned so he wouldn't have to abstain, B. coalition, as - although I strongly dislike Podemos - is it certainly not unreasonable of Iglesias to demand actual participation instead of the "offer" made.

I get why Sánchez does what he does, but he really has no one to blame but himself if he gets humiliated on the first vote. Not to mention the levels of hypocrisy arguably surpass those of Casado, Rivera or Iglesias as well.
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« Reply #786 on: July 15, 2019, 12:38:48 PM »
« Edited: July 16, 2019, 12:32:21 AM by Velasco »

How typically irresponsible of Sánchez. It's hard to find his attitude believable regarding A. abstention of C's or PP, considering the man spend months on the whole "No es No" attitude towards Rajoy and even resigned so he wouldn't have to abstain, B. coalition, as - although I strongly dislike Podemos - is it certainly not unreasonable of Iglesias to demand actual participation instead of the "offer" made.

I get why Sánchez does what he does, but he really has no one to blame but himself if he gets humiliated on the first vote. Not to mention the levels of hypocrisy arguably surpass those of Casado, Rivera or Iglesias as well.

Sánchez has a great deal of responsibility, that's obvious. However, regardless how questionable has been his attitude in the last months, he's not the only guilty party. The political stalemate is a consequence of the excessive polarization of Spanish politics (this climate dates back to the final days of Aznar and the Madrid bombings) and the lack of grandeur. The era of consensus building is long gone and (additionally) there is no tradition of coalition governments at national level. Political parties are engaged in a war on narratives that is not good for the country.

Regarding A, asking PP and Cs to abstain has the tactical purpose of making the opposition parties responsible for the country's stability and counter the narrative that Sánchez is selling Spain to separatists. While it's reasonable to argue the responsibility to form a government belongs to the leader of the winning party, the apocalyptic tone of Casado and Rivera portraying Sánchez as a traitor to the nation has been damaging and objectionable. So there is a point in asking them to abstain, in order the investiture of Sánchez does not rely on ERC or Bildu. In any case, there is a difference between PP and Cs. It's true that Sánchez championed the "No is No", but it's nonetheless true that he paid a heavy price for that and at the end most of his party abstained for the sake of stability. Casado and the PP can easily find pretexts, though. The case of Rivera and Cs is very different. Given the election results, a deal between PSOE and Cs would have been the obvious choice in normal circumstances. Obviously that's not the case, but apparently Sánchez still had some hopes that Cs turned to a position at least favourable to abstention. The reasons are the approachment between Sánchez and Macron, whom met in Paris immediately after the EP elections, and the tactical move of Manuel Valls in Barcelona. However Rivera didn't move from his initial position, despite he has been pressed from all sides.

It's strange that I have to say this about someone I never liked very much, but Manuel Valls made the only positive thing in this period by offering his votes to Ada Colau in exchange for nothing. The move was replicated by Ïñigo Errejón in Madrid, offering outside support for an alternative regional government formed by PSOE and Cs. Oranges made clear they preferred a separatist as mayor of Barcelona, as well as PP (despite corruption) and Vox (through the back door) to govern the key region of Madrid.

Regarding B, the arguments made by Sánchez are basically the differences on the Catalan question and that PSOE and UP are short of a majority. I think the main reason to oppose a formal coalition is that the perspective of having Pablo Iglesias as Deputy PM is very uncomfortable for Pedro Sánchez. It is certainly hard to imagine that a strong character like Iglesias can accommodate to a "modest" role within the government, in accordance to the weight of UP in parliament. Every statement made by the Podemos leader in that regard had the effect to exacerbate the mistrust of Sánchez. It's not possible to make coalition agreements when there exists mutual distrust, even less after the plebiscite called by Iglesias among his grassroots. Still. they are doomed to reach a compromise and it's entirely reasonable that UP demands to participate in the government. Given that Sánchez was moving from his initial position (minority government, confidence and supply agreement), my opinion is that UP should have been more flexible and patient in negotiations. For instance, accepting to discuss the political platform before discussing who enters the government, as certain PNV leader advised recently.

A repetition of elections could be a potential disaster and in neither case would solve the stalemate, even if the PSOE gets better results. Additionally it would damage the reputation of Sánchez in Europe.      
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« Reply #787 on: July 15, 2019, 01:52:52 PM »

I remember I read an article a while back that pretty much claimed that in other countries with multi-party systems, the burden to form a government is in the government appointed by the informateur or whoever is in charge of coalition building. Meanwhile it seems that in Spain, the burden is not in the government to be formed, but rather in the opposition to not be an obstacle.

Regarding polarization, I would not blame polarization "per se", but rather the multi party system. Back in 2008 polarization was at record highs, and yet Zapatero had no problem whatsoever forming a government. Granted, CiU is a lot more reasonable than the current JxCat and same goes for ERC, but still; if instead of having PSOE at 123 and UP at 42; we had PSOE at something like 163 and UP at 2 (like back in 2008), Pedro Sánchez would probably be PM by now (either that or he fails because of the Catalans)

Also, regarding a snap election, it is possible that PSOE and Sánchez are not looking forward to having an easier path to forming a government, but instead trying to kill off Podemos. A PP-Cs-Vox government is a very far away posibility. Imagine if we got a 2nd election and PSOE held steady at 28% while UP went down to something like 10%.

Finally, there have been moves by Errejón that seem to signal that he wants to create his own party and run. I doubt that will go anywhere, but if it does that also hurts UP by a lot.

I do have to say, even as someone that generally supports Sánchez, that he is probably in the wrong here, though UP has also been extremely inflexible with their demands.
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Skye
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« Reply #788 on: July 15, 2019, 02:05:51 PM »

The way I see it, granting Iglesias far more power than he deserves would be far too risky for Sánchez, so he's willing to bet for another election where this:

Imagine if we got a 2nd election and PSOE held steady at 28% while UP went down to something like 10%.

happens, or something like PSOE 33-UP 10, which wouldn't be as far fetched since PSOE is polling really well ATM. Of course that's super risky as well because the right could theoretically rebound to its late 2018 polls where the PP-C's-Vox vote was getting dangerously close to 50%.
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« Reply #789 on: July 15, 2019, 02:38:17 PM »

The way I see it, granting Iglesias far more power than he deserves would be far too risky for Sánchez, so he's willing to bet for another election where this:


Spanish politics is very personality driven and rivalrous (I have once said its worse then GoT's infighting)  so giving Iglesias such a high perch would be a bad idea from the start. That is probably PSOE's sticking point, they would be happy with a coalition but Iglesias would have to sit out or get a background office, a bad deal for Podemos. Of course this all would be made easier if the C's deal was still on the table, the threat of that would have allowed Podemos to no doubt back a minority govt. But once again rivalries threw that possibility out the window. 
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Velasco
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« Reply #790 on: July 16, 2019, 01:25:24 AM »
« Edited: July 16, 2019, 04:30:38 AM by Velasco »

I remember I read an article a while back that pretty much claimed that in other countries with multi-party systems, the burden to form a government is in the government appointed by the informateur or whoever is in charge of coalition building. Meanwhile it seems that in Spain, the burden is not in the government to be formed, but rather in the opposition to not be an obstacle.

If we go to elections in November, the main responsible for that failure will be Pedro Sánchez. The PSOE leader was commissioned by the king to form a government "as soon as possible". Once you accept the commission, it's reasonable to expect that you will try your best to succeed. So the main guilty is always Sánchez, regardless the narrative from La Moncloa.


Regarding polarization, I would not blame polarization "per se", but rather the multi party system.

The multiparty system is the consequence of the people's will. The composition of the Congress reflects a clear mandate: people is demanding that parties negotiate and reach agreements. It's unlikely that we go back to the two-party system. The political stalemate shows that parties are failing to meet the hopes of their voters. In the eventuality of a snap election, the disappointment within the Left is likely to reflect in lower turnout.

Finally, there have been moves by Errejón that seem to signal that he wants to create his own party and run. I doubt that will go anywhere, but if it does that also hurts UP by a lot.


'Más País' represents my last hope to have a national party somewhat close to my views, so I wish Errejón will go somewhere with his project. Given the electoral results in Madrid, I'd say the Podemos founder has a base of support strong enough to win seats in Congress. However, he needs to build an organization in Madrid before extending to the rest of the country. Errejón has an excellent relationship with Mónica Oltra (Compromís), but he needs more time to build a network of regional alliances. A snap election in November is too early for Errejón, but if he runs I have no doubt he will come back to Congress and damage UP.
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« Reply #791 on: July 17, 2019, 02:20:45 PM »

While the national government formation process has been the one taking up everyone's attention, for obvious reasons, there have also been many problems at the regional level, much more than usual (remember Spain has only ever had 1 repeat regional election; Madrid 2003; and even that one required PP literally bribing 2 regional PSOE MPs). Anyways, here is how government formation at the regional level looks like:

Governments already formed and sworn in

Castille-La Mancha (PSOE Majority)
Extremadura (PSOE majority)
Cantabria (PRC-PSOE coalition)
Castille-Leon (PP-Cs coalition)
Asturias (PSOE minority with external IU support)
Canary Islands (PSOE-NCa-ASG-UP coalition)
Balearic Islands (PSOE-Més-UP coalition)

Special cases

Ceuta: PP minority elected by default as it's the largest party. Presumably they will be propped up by Vox if needed but no formal deal was done (in fact Vox voted for themselves, not for the PP mayor)
Melilla: Cs mayor elected with literally only 1 seat; propped up by the local muslim party (CpM) and PSOE

No government making votes done yet

Aragon: After Cs rejected a PSOE-Cs government and centrist regionalist PAR rejected a right wing PP-Cs-Vox-PAR government, it seemed the only viable option was PAR defecting and supporting a PSOE-ChA-PAR-Podemos-IU left wing government. PSOE has ruled both with ChA-Podemos-IU and with PAR in the past, so getting both is not imposssible. PSOE and PAR have already reached a deal. It is also very likely that they will reach a deal with ChA. At that point they need IU to support them and Podemos to abstain (or viceversa).

The government formation vote is scheduled for the 30th or 31st of July

Navarra: PSOE, IU, Podemos and big tent Basque nationalist GBai (which functions as a sort of PNV branch in Navarra) have reached a government deal. However they need Bildu to abstain, and PSOE absolutely refuses to negotiate anything with Bildu. So it's unclear whether Bildu will give them a free pass or not.

No government formation vote has been scheduled yet. The deadline for a government to be formed is the 26th of August

Places with already failed government votes

La Rioja: Here PSOE and UP theoretically have enough seats for a bare 1 seat majority. However during negotiations, IU and Podemos (1 seat each) split due to differences regarding coalition building. Just like nationally, Podemos requested seats in the regional executive (IU did not). The first vote failed yesterday. The second vote is scheduled for tomorrow, and there has been a lot of pressure upon the lone Podemos MP, even from her own party, to vote yes. However it's unclear what will happen. The situation is remarkably similar to the national one

Murcia: Here PP and Cs negotiated a coalition deal, and then PP offered to negotiate a separate deal with Vox; very similar to Andalucía. However, Vox rejected these conditions this time and requested a 3 way negotiation with Cs, which Cs categorically refuses. Unlike Podemos, Vox is not requesting any regional executive seats but they do request a direct negotiation with Cs. In the end, Vox voted against the PP-Cs government alongside the left.

Deadline for a successful government vote: 2nd of September

Madrid: The exact same scenario as Murcia (Vox demands a 3 way negotiation with PP and Cs, Cs refuses) except with more attention nationally because of course (it's Madrid after all). The only difference is that instead of a proper government vote, in Madrid they had a "Candidate-less government vote", just to start the clock to count down.

Deadline for a successful government vote: 10th of September

I believe Aragon will almost certainly see a successful government. Navarra is iffy, but I believe Bildu will cave. Finally, I believe internal pressure will force Podemos in La Rioja to cave, even if it may set a bad precedent nationally (though the vote disparity is much larger than nationally and Podemos made some ridiculous demands in La Rioja). The toughest ones to predict are the 2 involving Vox in my opinion.

Of course it is possible that no one caves, whether nationally or regionally and we end up with like 5 separate regional elections in different weeks in Autumn, alongside a national one as well. Sounds fun for political nerds (read: Atlas forum) but I imagine Spaniards will end up tired lol
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Velasco
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« Reply #792 on: July 17, 2019, 05:10:28 PM »
« Edited: July 18, 2019, 09:00:47 AM by Velasco »


Canary Islands (PSOE-NCa-ASG-UP coalition)


Ceuta: PP minority elected by default as it's the largest party. Presumably they will be propped up by Vox if needed but no formal deal was done (in fact Vox voted for themselves, not for the PP mayor)

Podemos and IU ran separately in the Canary Islands, so UP is not in the coalition. The electoral coalition led by Noemi Santana was called "Sí Podemos Canarias" and incorporated Podemos,  Sí Se Puede (local party based in Tenerife founded years before Podemos) and Equo. IU ran in its own and failed to win seats. The members of regional government are:

Premier: Ángel Víctor Torres (PSOE)
Deputy Premier, Finance and Planning: Román Rodríguez (NC)
Economy, Knowledge and Employment: Carolina Darias (PSOE)
Public Works, Transport and Housing: Sebastián Franquis (PSOE)
Ecologic Transition: José Antonio Valbuena (PSOE)
Healthcare: Teresa Cruz (PSOE)
Education, Universities, Culture and Sports: María José Guerra (Ind)
Agriculture, Farming and Fisheries: Alicia Vanoostende (PSOE)
Public Administration, Justice and Security: Julio Pérez (PSOE)
Social Affairs, Youth, Equality and Diversity: Noemi Santana (Podemos)
Tourism: Yaiza Castilla (ASG)

It's worth noting that CC lost two historical strongholds: the Cabildo of Tenerife and the local government of the island's capital Santa Cruz. In both cases thanks to a deal between PSOE and Cs, with the outsie support of Podemos. The Cs councilors in the Cabildo and the Santa Cruz town hall have been suspended provisionally by party leadership. Cs does not believe anymore in "democratic regeneration", apparently

The PP mayor-president of Ceuta rejects categorically deals with Vox. Possibly he will be propped up by PSOE.
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Velasco
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« Reply #793 on: July 18, 2019, 03:21:26 PM »
« Edited: July 18, 2019, 03:49:24 PM by Velasco »

The results of the Podemos consultation have been publicized this evening. Unsurprisingly 70% supported the option backed by Pablo Iglesias, that is "integrated coalition without exclusions". The second option was a "government designed by the PSOE, collaboration at administrative levels subordinate to the government and programmatic agreement". The wording of the second proposal angered Pedro Sánchez, who claimed having offered the incorporation of Podemos ministers with a "technocratic" profile (implying the exclusion of Pablo Iglesias and other members of party leadership).

More importantly, this morning Pedro Sánchez made abundantly clear that Pablo Iglesias is the main obstacle for a deal between PSOE and Podemos. The acting PM was crystal clear in an interview with journalist Antonio Ferreras. Sánchez said he cannot accept the presence of Iglesias due to the deep differences in affairs of state, namely the crisis in Catalonia. "Pablo Iglesias talks about political prisoners (referring to separatist leaders awaiting judgment) and I need a Deputy PM who defends the Spanish democracy". The ruling of the Supreme Court is expected to be in October and the acting PM fears turbulence in Catalonia, so he wants inner unity in his cabinet to face the situation. Another reason argued by Sánchez is mutual distrust, referring to some statements made by Iglesias remarking the presence of Podemos is necessary to ensure the compliance of agreements. Sánchez also claims that all the conversations between him and Iglesias have been focused in the re partition of ministries (Iglesias would have demanded Finance, Labour or Communication). Despite these words, Sánchez reiterates his coalition offer consisting in the incorporation of "skilled" Podemos members. However, he warned the offer expires after the investiture vote. Sánchez also reiterates his appeal to PP and Cs to abstain allowing the investiture. No doubt Pedro Sánchez is playing strong.

In other news: "Spain will propose economy minister as new IMF chief if backed by EU"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/18/inenglish/1563435731_182529.html

Quote
The Spanish government is ready to nominate its economy minister, Nadia Calviño, to head the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as long as she receives enough support from other European countries.

The EU’s proposal to put current IMF chief Christine Lagarde at the helm of the European Central Bank has opened up a race for her succession. EU countries want to put forward a single candidate to increase their chances of having a European in control of the Washington-based organization (...)
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Velasco
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« Reply #794 on: July 19, 2019, 09:12:42 AM »

Socialists are now open to the incorporation of any Podemos member to a coalition government, with the sole exception of Pablo Iglesias. This means the incorporation of people with a "political profile" like the second-in-line Irene Montero is possible now, while the previous offer to Podemos was limited to people with a "technical profile"

200 artists make a plea for a progressive government

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/19/inenglish/1563525487_105458.html

Quote
  A group of Spanish artists has signed a manifesto urging the Socialist Party (PSOE) and Unidas Podemos to reach a governing deal in order to prevent a repeat election.

 
Javier Bardem and 200 other artists make plea for a progressive government in Spain
With talks between the Socialists and Podemos at a deadlock, a group of writers and performers has signed a manifesto demanding a deal to avoid a repeat election.

The petition is signed by more than 200 personalities from the world of culture, including actor Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men, The Sea Inside), writer Almudena Grandes (The Ages of Lulu, The Wind From the East) and film director Iciar Bollaín (Take My Eyes, Flowers From Another World) (...)

The manifesto states: “The April elections opened up the possibility that a progressive majority could reach an understanding to govern together. The people came out in force to send a clear message: We don’t want the far right anywhere near the mechanisms of power. But the general enthusiasm after the elections is dissipating as the PSOE and Unidas Podemos struggle to reach an agreement in government negotiations.”

“No party won a big enough majority to govern alone and polls have since shown that the people prefer for there to be an agreement between progressive parties. Now is the time to make a deal, come to an understanding, reach an agreement. Now is the time to make policy for the people,” the manifesto adds.

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jaichind
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« Reply #795 on: July 19, 2019, 10:25:06 AM »

Socialists are now open to the incorporation of any Podemos member to a coalition government, with the sole exception of Pablo Iglesias. This means the incorporation of people with a "political profile" like the second-in-line Irene Montero is possible now, while the previous offer to Podemos was limited to people with a "technical profile"

200 artists make a plea for a progressive government

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/19/inenglish/1563525487_105458.html

Quote
  A group of Spanish artists has signed a manifesto urging the Socialist Party (PSOE) and Unidas Podemos to reach a governing deal in order to prevent a repeat election.

 
Javier Bardem and 200 other artists make plea for a progressive government in Spain
With talks between the Socialists and Podemos at a deadlock, a group of writers and performers has signed a manifesto demanding a deal to avoid a repeat election.

The petition is signed by more than 200 personalities from the world of culture, including actor Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men, The Sea Inside), writer Almudena Grandes (The Ages of Lulu, The Wind From the East) and film director Iciar Bollaín (Take My Eyes, Flowers From Another World) (...)

The manifesto states: “The April elections opened up the possibility that a progressive majority could reach an understanding to govern together. The people came out in force to send a clear message: We don’t want the far right anywhere near the mechanisms of power. But the general enthusiasm after the elections is dissipating as the PSOE and Unidas Podemos struggle to reach an agreement in government negotiations.”

“No party won a big enough majority to govern alone and polls have since shown that the people prefer for there to be an agreement between progressive parties. Now is the time to make a deal, come to an understanding, reach an agreement. Now is the time to make policy for the people,” the manifesto adds.



Would this approach even further anger Pablo Iglesias?  It is like saying "we will work with anyone but you personally". Now it is not even about ideology but personality.
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Velasco
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« Reply #796 on: July 19, 2019, 10:52:41 AM »

Urgent news: Pablo Iglesias steps aside and gives up his pretension to be  in the government, providing there are no more exclusions and UP can select its prople getting a share proportional to its size. "I won't be the pretext for the PSOE to prevent a left-wing coalition government"

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/07/19/actualidad/1563550732_115972.html
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bigic
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« Reply #797 on: July 19, 2019, 11:50:07 AM »

How much of the time spent on arguing between PSOE and Podemos could be used for negotiations with minor parties?
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Velasco
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« Reply #798 on: July 20, 2019, 05:51:06 AM »
« Edited: July 20, 2019, 05:59:36 AM by Velasco »

How much of the time spent on arguing between PSOE and Podemos could be used for negotiations with minor parties?

In case PSOE and Podemos reach an agreement, Pedro Sánchez could pass with relative ease the second investiture vote taking place on Thursday next week. I guess the PSOE will have to carry out parallel talks with PNV and Compromís, but both parties are willing to reach an agreement. On the other hand, ERC and Bildu spokepersons stated they won't be an obstacle for the investiture, which can be interpreted as a likely abstention. JxCAT is expected to vote against, following instructions from Puigdemont.

A possible investiture scenario, providing the negotiations against the clock between PSOE and UP are successful, could be:

173 in favour: PSOE, UP, PNV, Compromís, PRC
19 abstentions: ERC, EH Bildu
158 against: PP, Cs, Vox, JxCAT, CC, UPN

Simple majority (enough to pass the second vote)



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Velasco
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« Reply #799 on: July 20, 2019, 05:53:15 AM »
« Edited: July 20, 2019, 09:34:57 AM by Velasco »

According to journalist Enric Juliana, Dilma Rousseff contacted Iglesias and advised him not to carry the responsibility for a new election on his shoulder, as the consequences would be devastating for him and Podemos. In other words, Iglesias gave up to prevent the suicide of his organization

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20190720/463591241649/el-mensaje-de-dilma-rousseff.html
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