Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Former President tack50]

Nothing has changed in August and the most likely scenario is elections in November. Pedro Sánchez claims there's a third way, but his words sound hollow

Could it be possible for PSOE to win a majority with 32-35% of the votes? or at least form a minority government supported by regional parties?

In order to get a majority in Spain, you pretty much need at least 40% of the vote. A good example is the 1989 general election, where Felipe González won exactly 175/350 seats in Congress with 39.6% of the vote. So no, a PSOE majority is impossible.

A government propped up only by regional parties is a bit more realistic, albeit not much more so. Easy to get regional parties would be PNV (6 seats), Compromís (1 seat) and PRC (1 seat), so Sánchez would need at least 168 seats in order to get a majority with them. If he could also get ERC and Bildu to abstain (even as Podemos votes no!) that would bring the required number of seats down as well, probably to the high 150s range, which is doable with 35% of the vote, although realistically it would imply PSOE a bit higher than that.

[Former President tack50]

Here is also another poll, this time from NC Report / La Razón.

PSOE: 29.5% (127-130)
PP: 21.9% (84-87)
Cs: 13.9% (49-52)
UP: 13.1% (33-36)
Vox: 7.7% (15-17)

https://www.larazon.es/espana/espana-se-abona-al-desgobierno-ningun-bloque-sumaria-mayoria-de-repetirse-elecciones-FG24777992

The Sociométrica / El Español poll also included an interesting alternative poll where PP, Cs and Vox run together in a single coalition (as PP has been suggesting lately, at least with Cs, not so much with Vox; needless to say it's not going anywhere), as well as a Senate simulation (not like the Spanish Senate matters):

https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20190902/espana-suma-no-lograria-congreso-movilizaria-izquierda/425958035_0.html

https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20190902/espana-suma-provocaria-vuelco-senado-llegar-controlarlo/425958065_0.html

[mileslunn]

What is the reason Iglesias and Sanchez are so adamant on their stances?  You would think the risk of a right wing government would be enough to push one to blink?  While polls suggest PSOE will gain far from a majority so they will have to agree eventually.  While I think elections are most likely, if the parties were smart they would realize its a huge gamble and find a way out.  I suspect most progressives in Spain care more about policies than which party does it just as I suspect many on the right would accept a coalition or agreement.  Italy just formed a coalition of two parties that have even less in common so in most of Europe coalitions are the norm, although Spain doesn't have a history of them.

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez launched 370 policy points yesterday, on paper aimed at persuading UP. Analysts say, however, they look like the PSOE platform for the upcoming November elections.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/03/inenglish/1567518646_547318.html

Acting Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has presented a series of 370 policy pledges to try to convince Unidas Podemos to back his bid to be voted back into office. What’s more he has offered the leader of the left-wing anti-austerity party, Pablo Iglesias, “a rigorous system of control” to ensure that a potential government headed by his Socialist Party (PSOE) sticks to any governing deal (...)

Sánchez also today offered Unidas Podemos – which itself is a coalition of the party founded by Iglesias and the United Left (IU) – “key responsibilities” in state institutions that are not subordinated to the Cabinet. He also called on the parties’ negotiating teams to meet on September 5. Another meeting between Sánchez and Iglesias has yet to be confirmed, but it could take place sometime next week.

Sánchez described the offer as a “triple guarantee” for Podemos, given that it includes an office connected to the Finance Ministry that would ensure that any governing deal is respected; monitoring committees in both Congress and the Senate; and a third guarantee mechanism in which members of civil society would participate. “We don’t want votes at our investiture for free,” Sánchez said of what he described in an interview with EL PAÍS published this past weekend as a “third way” forward, somewhere between the coalition government that Podemos has been demanding, and the PSOE minority government that the acting prime minister is pushing for.

“If the problem with Unidas Podemos is mistrust, let’s build trust and establish maximum guarantees,” Sánchez told a crowd of 700 people today at a presentation of the 370 measures. “Our attitude is sincere, we must not become enemies. We can be loyal allies as we have been in the past.”

Hours before Sánchez took to the stage, during an interview on state broadcaster TVE, Iglesias repeated his demand for Unidas Podemos to be given ministries in exchange for support for the PSOE. But the acting PM today repeated his view that this would be “unworkable” and “unfeasible” after the failure of the investiture vote in July, before which Iglesias had been offered one of the two deputy prime ministerial roles in the Cabinet, and three ministries.

Some of the policy points meet the UP demands, others have slight differences with the UP stance (UP wants to repeal the current labour legislation, while PSOE just wants to reform some controversial aspects) and there's a mention to Catalonia that reflects the PSOE's stance opposing a referendum on self-determination (which UP suports, although it's not a "red line" for them). In spite of the later, apparently ERC would not oppose the investiture of Sánchez in case PSOE and UP reach a deal.

The policy points announced today by the PSOE include the reversal of labor reforms implemented by the conservative PP, constitutional protection for pension rises, and tax hikes for higher earners and large companies in order to pay for a wide range of social measures.

Some of the other plans include measures to combat “abusive” rent rises, a roll-out of a free daycare system across the country, “low-emission zones” similar to the Madrid Central scheme in cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants, and a tightening of sexual assault laws to ensure that if a women “does not specifically say yes, everything else is a no.” 

The complaints of people on here aren't reflected in the polls (for now). SocioMétrica and Sigma Dos are both out with new polls that show the left gaining.

I'd take these polls with loads of salt. Currently there exists a dynamic of two opposing blocks and polls detect vote transfers between them are little to nothing. Maybe these polls conducted in summer reflect some demobilization in the right, or just summer holydays disconnection. Months before the April elections, rightwing parties were polling around 50% in some polls. However, leftwing voters mobilized for a number of reasons (fear of Vox, for instance) and the combined vote of the 'Triple Alliance' dropped to just 43% in the actual election. In case we go to elections in November, it's likely rightwing voters will mobilize and go to the polls. Also, despite some socialists are confident with results, leftwing voters might feel less motivated to show up in November than they were in April.

What is the reason Iglesias and Sanchez are so adamant on their stances?  You would think the risk of a right wing government would be enough to push one to blink?  While polls suggest PSOE will gain far from a majority so they will have to agree eventually.  While I think elections are most likely, if the parties were smart they would realize its a huge gamble and find a way out.  I suspect most progressives in Spain care more about policies than which party does it just as I suspect many on the right would accept a coalition or agreement.  Italy just formed a coalition of two parties that have even less in common so in most of Europe coalitions are the norm, although Spain doesn't have a history of them.

I'm wondering the same question. As far as I'm concerned, I care more about policies and less about power sharing. Personally I think the relationhip between PSOE and UP is too deteriorated to form a coalition governmet right now. However, I also think that Sánchez would have acted differently in case he was truly committed to reach an agreement. His offer comes less than three weeks before deadline, with little room for anything but "take it or leave it".  Possibly the best way to deal with this would be a gradualist approach, a negotiation step by step (first we agree a common platform and build confidence, then we discuss collaborative mechanisms or a coalition agreement).

[Former President tack50]

Pedro Sánchez launched 370 policy points yesterday, on paper aimed at persuading UP. Analysts say, however, they look like the PSOE platform for the upcoming November elections.

I'd take these polls with loads of salt. Currently there exists a dynamic of two opposing blocks and polls detect vote transfers between them are little to nothing. Maybe these polls conducted in summer reflect some demobilization in the right, or just summer holydays disconnection. Months before the April elections, rightwing parties were polling around 50% in some polls. However, leftwing voters mobilized for a number of reasons (fear of Vox, for instance) and the combined vote of the 'Triple Alliance' dropped to just 43% in the actual election. In case we go to elections in November, it's likely rightwing voters will mobilize and go to the polls. Also, despite some socialists are confident with results, leftwing voters might feel less motivated to show up in November than they were in April.

Worth noting that back in April it was both the left and the right who were energized. It is also worth noting that the Spanish right as a whole needs to be polling close to 50% in order to get a majority because of their division in 3 parties.

Let's do a thought experiment. Let's assume that in the repeat November election turnout will drop to 65%; which mind you would be the lowest in Spanish history, even lower than 2016 (2019 was not that high by historical standards; certainly nowhere near 1982 levels of 80% or even 2008 levels of 74%).

Let's also assume this turnout drop is exclusively because of left wing parties (split proportionally between PSOE and UP), with the right holding all their voters. The popular vote results would be thus as follows. Percentages are after excluding blank/null ballots (which I have kept equal to 2019):

Total turnout in November: 23 984 274
Vote drop April-November: 2 493 866

PSOE: 5 754 966 (24.5%)
PP: 4 373 653 (18.6%)
Cs: 4 155 665 (17.7%)
UP: 2 399 790 (10.2%)
Vox: 2 688 092 (11.4%)

Right bloc: 47.7%
Left bloc: 34.7%

Certainly a commading lead for the right of 15 points (which iirc would be the best result for the Spanish right ever, or at least on par with 2011). However, would it be enough for the right to climb over the 176 seat mark?

With this handy seat calculator, the right would get 181 seats. So, in a repeat election a right wing majority is within the margin of error, though their chances I would put at less than 50% (this is a "perfect" scenario for the right after all). Mind you even if the right falls short and gets like 170 that doesn't mean the left will be able to form a government as that probably implies getting people like Puigdemont's JxCat to openly vote yes, which isn't happening.

[Velasco]

PSOE and UP delegations met yesterday and talked for nearly five hours. However, there was no significant progress and both parties stand in their initial positions. PSOE and UP concurred they have very distinct positions, stating their willingness to continue talking in spite of their differences. UP spokepersons claim there is still room for compromise, but criticize the "immovable" attitude of the PSOE. Socialists are firm in their rejection to resume the proposal to form a coalition government they made in July. Podemos MP Ione Belarra stated at the end of the meeting that PSOE is unwilling to negotiate and showed her "concern", while MP Yolanda Díaz stated there is time to negotiate and and consider the proposals on the table. The government expects "the new means of dialog" will be completed with a meeting between Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias.

Previously and with the clear aim of pressing and encircling Podemos, Pedro Sámchez held meetings with the leaders of PRC (acting PM met in Cantabria with premier Miguel Ängel Revilla), PNV (with chairman Andoni Ortuzar in Madrid), while lieutenants José Luis Ábalos and Adriana Lastra met with ERC parliamentary spokesman Gabriel Rufián. PSOE has secured the PRC support already and the PNV endorsement is almost certain (Basque nationalists, however, were upsetted because socialists haven't contacted them this summer), while Gabriel Rufián (his conversion from parliament fool to statesman is amazing) made clear that ERC won't be an obstacle to the investiture of Sánchez and sent a not so veiled message to Pablo Iglesias (implying that maybe the Podemos leader is too obsessed with getting ministries).

Finally the negotiating teams: no changes in PSOE and some new faces in UP

PSOE: Carmen Calvo (Deputy PM), Adriana Lastra (parliamentary spokeswoman) and María Jesús Montero (Minister of Finance)

UP: Pablo Echenique (Podemos secretary for government action), Ione Belarra (MP, replaces parliamentary spokeswoman Irene Montero during her maternity leave), Yolanda Díaz (MP for Galicia en Común, IU member), Jaume Asens (MP for En Comú Podem), Enrique santiago (IU MP, secretary general of the PCE) and Juan López Uralde (MP, leader of Equo)

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/09/05/actualidad/1567669329_430319.html?rel=lom

[Velasco]

 No contacts this weekend. PSOE and UP will resume talks tomorrow

GAD3 poll for ABC newspaper

PSOE 32.1% 137
PP 19.9% 82
Cs 14% 45
UP 13.3% 35
Vox 7.9% 14
ERC 3.8% 15
JxCAT 1.9% 7
EAJ-PNV 1.4% 7
Bildu 1% 3
NA+ 0 4% 2
Others 3.3% 3

Turnout 70%

PSOE, UP and PNV would have majority.

Even in this optimistic scenario, Sánchez and Iglesias still need to solve their differences. In case turnout falls below 70% (highly likely, imo), the left will get poorer results in November.

[mileslunn]

It seems another election would be pointless.  While unlikely right would get a majority but not impossible if turnout falls enough, what advantage do either have?  There is no chance of the PSOE getting a majority on its own and Citizens have ruled out working with PSOE, so an agreement between PSOE-Podemos will be needed after November if they are able to form government.  Basically another election means unless in the unlikely event PSOE gets a majority on its own or right wins one, we are back to same place.  So its really in both party's interest to find a way to an agreement.  Seems we have the prisoner's dilemma here, whichever party caves will look bad short term, but long term in terms of policies it serves their interest of each to have a deal.

[Velasco]

PSOE and UP are at breaking point after four hours of fruitless talks this morning. Socialists say there's no path for agreement because UP rejects the solution they are proposing, while Pablo Echenique (Podemos) complains that PSOE is "immovable" in the"single party government". We are going to elections again.

[mileslunn]

PSOE and UP are at breaking point after four hours of fruitless talks this morning. Socialists say there's no path for agreement because UP rejects the solution they are proposing, while Pablo Echenique (Podemos) complains that PSOE is "immovable" in the"single party government". We are going to elections again.

And what will elections solve unless the right does really win and wins on its own.  Its not as though PSOE is going to get a majority so will be back to same place again.  For Podemos they are probably better to just go along and even though a climb down, still get the best realistic outcome as after the next election likely will lose seats so less clout and if right manages to win much worse for them.

What is interesting to watch is in Spain gap between Podemos and UP is pretty small compared to gap between Five Star Movement and Democratic Party in Italy yet latter formed a coalition pretty quickly despite differences, former cannot after 5 months so go figure.

[Estrella]

What is interesting to watch is in Spain gap between Podemos and UP is pretty small compared to gap between Five Star Movement and Democratic Party in Italy yet latter formed a coalition pretty quickly despite differences, former cannot after 5 months so go figure.

I don't think it's got to do with differences or gaps as much as the fact that parties in Spain are actually 'proper' parties - they have clearly distinct ideology, longer history, larger membership and actual principles (not that UP aren't just being pig-headed at this point), while Italians are more, er, pragmatic. Also, Spanish politicians aren't really used to coalitions.

[Former President tack50]

There has also always been a ton of mistrust between Sánchez and Iglesias and between PSOE and UP. Remember, UP spent much of 2015 and 2016 trying to outright kill PSOE as the main party of the Spanish left. While they failed, it's no surprise PSOE still holds a grudge against Podemos and does not trust them because of that, while similarly Podemos views PSOE as untrustworthy.

[Velasco]

There has also always been a ton of mistrust between Sánchez and Iglesias and between PSOE and UP. Remember, UP spent much of 2015 and 2016 trying to outright kill PSOE as the main party of the Spanish left. While they failed, it's no surprise PSOE still holds a grudge against Podemos and does not trust them because of that, while similarly Podemos views PSOE as untrustworthy.

Now the context is different. Many in UP suspect one of the main reasons to call elections is that Sánchez is trying to exterminate them and pursuing a comeback of the two-party system. As some PNV spokeperson said today: neither PSOE nor UP are rising to the occasion. They are disappointing the expectations of their voters and maybe they will have to pay a price

EDIT: While there exists a huge rivalry and mistrust between PSOE and UP, they are nothing if compared with the hostility between PD and M5S in Italy. I think it's obvious PSOE and UP are lacking pragmatism and professionalism. Shame on them.

[Velasco]

This morning in parliament Pablo Iglesias asked Pedro Sánchez a face-to-face meeting to unlock the investiture, but the acting PM refused. Sánchez told the Podemos leader that, in case there is an alternative proposal to the coalition government, he can call the negotiation table. The impression is that Pedro Sánchez and spin doctor Iván Redondo are determined to go to elections and destroy Podemos, while Iglesias is making a desperate attempt to save the situation and survive. However, repetition of elections is like playing Russian roulette and we ignore what's the information held by the government. Maybe Sánchez and Redondo are gambling, in order to force Iglesias to cave in and support investiture in exchange for nothing. Recent polls report increasing pessisism on the political and economic situation. This is not a good environment to call elections.

[Skye]

El País released today an interactive map that shows the median income of Spaniards by census blocks. I think they're the same as the voting precincts, so it'd be interesting to compare it to the April election results. I'm already seeing some correlation between income and the left v. right vote.

https://elpais.com/economia/2019/09/11/actualidad/1568217626_928704.html

[Velasco]

The king calls political leaders for a last round of talks

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/12/inenglish/1568291663_895588.html

Spain’s King Felipe VI has summoned political leaders to a last round of consultations to determine a prime ministerial candidate ahead of a possible investiture vote, according to a press release from La Zarzuela royal palace. The meetings, which will take place on September 16 and 17, will be the last before Spaniards are potentially called back to the polls once more, with a likely November 10 vote marking the fourth time in as many years that Spain holds a general election.6 

Catalan independence rally draws the smallest (but still impressive) crowd in seven years. Currently there exists division within the independence movement. The Diada takes place every year on September 11

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/11/more-than-half-a-million-call-for-catalan-independence

  More than half a million people have gathered in Barcelona on Catalonia’s national day (Diada) to renew calls for regional independence as Spain awaits the verdict in the landmark trial of 12 separatist leaders over the failed breakaway bid two years ago.

Despite the politically charged atmosphere, police in the Catalan capital said that around 600,000 people had taken part in the annual event – dramatically down on the 1 million who turned out for the previous two Diadas. 

El País released today an interactive map that shows the median income of Spaniards by census blocks. I think they're the same as the voting precincts, so it'd be interesting to compare it to the April election results. I'm already seeing some correlation between income and the left v. right vote.

https://elpais.com/economia/2019/09/11/actualidad/1568217626_928704.html

Pretty interesting. I think census sections are approximately the same, but looking at my neighbourhood I got the impression that some electoral precincts might be amalgamated. Very useful for socioeconomic patterns

[Velasco]

El País released today an interactive map that shows the median income of Spaniards by census blocks. I think they're the same as the voting precincts, so it'd be interesting to compare it to the April election results. I'm already seeing some correlation between income and the left v. right vote.

https://elpais.com/economia/2019/09/11/actualidad/1568217626_928704.html

Pretty interesting. I think census sections are approximately the same, but looking at my neighbourhood I got the impression that some electoral precincts might be amalgamated. Very useful for socioeconomic patterns

Right now I'm looking for income and election results in the richest and the poorest sections in my hometown, Las Palmas de GC. Census sections are the same.

The richest section that I found lies in the coastal highway (Avenida Marítima) that connects the port to the south, not far from the junction with Bravo Murillo street and a public library. District 2, Section 37 LPGC. Income 26948

PP 32%, Cs 28%, Vox 13%, PSOE 12%, UP 6%, CC 3%, Others 5%

Results in other rich sections of LPGC follow a similar pattern: PP ahead with Cs performing a strong second, PSOE is usually third and strong results for Vox (notice this party is relatively weak in the Canaries, with average results in general election between 6% and 7%)

The poorest section is located in a neighbourhood called El Polvorín, a slum area of degraded residential blocks. District 4 ,Section 59 LPGC. Income 5628

PSOE 47%, UP 14%, PP 14%, Cs 8%, CC 6%, Vox 4%, Others 6%

The poorest section in Gran Canaria island is in a place called Valle de Jinámar, located in the neighbouring municipality of Telde (District 1, Section 61. Income 4756). Pretty similar results: PSOE 43%, UP 21%, PP 10%, Cs 8%, CC 4%, Vox 4%, Others 9%.  

[mileslunn]

El País released today an interactive map that shows the median income of Spaniards by census blocks. I think they're the same as the voting precincts, so it'd be interesting to compare it to the April election results. I'm already seeing some correlation between income and the left v. right vote.

https://elpais.com/economia/2019/09/11/actualidad/1568217626_928704.html

Pretty interesting. I think census sections are approximately the same, but looking at my neighbourhood I got the impression that some electoral precincts might be amalgamated. Very useful for socioeconomic patterns

Right now I'm looking for income and election results in the richest and the poorest sections in my hometown, Las Palmas de GC. Census sections are the same.

The richest section that I found lies in the coastal highway (Avenida Marítima) that connects the port to the south, not far from the junction with Bravo Murillo street and a public library. District 2, Section 37 LPGC. Income 26948

PP 32%, Cs 28%, Vox 13%, PSOE 12%, UP 6%, CC 3%, Others 5%

Results in other rich sections of LPGC follow a similar pattern: PP ahead with Cs performing a strong second, PSOE is usually third and strong results for Vox (notice this party is relatively weak in the Canaries, with average results in general election between 6% and 7%)

The poorest section is located in a neighbourhood called El Polvorín, a slum area of degraded residential blocks. District 4 ,Section 59 LPGC. Income 5628

PSOE 47%, UP 14%, PP 14%, Cs 8%, CC 6%, Vox 4%, Others 6%

The poorest section in Gran Canaria island is in a place called Valle de Jinámar, located in the neighbouring municipality of Telde (District 1, Section 61. Income 4756). Pretty similar results: PSOE 43%, UP 21%, PP 10%, Cs 8%, CC 4%, Vox 4%, Others 9%.  

Interesting in many Western countries income is no longer a major factor.  In UK age is main factor while in US and Canada its education.  Right does best amongst older voters regardless of income while in Canada and US areas with lots of university educated types favour left while areas with relatively few favour right regardless of income.

[Former President tack50]

Right now I'm looking for income and election results in the richest and the poorest sections in my hometown, Las Palmas de GC. Census sections are the same.

The richest section that I found lies in the coastal highway (Avenida Marítima) that connects the port to the south, not far from the junction with Bravo Murillo street and a public library. District 2, Section 37 LPGC. Income 26948

PP 32%, Cs 28%, Vox 13%, PSOE 12%, UP 6%, CC 3%, Others 5%

To be honest, that is a very surprising place for the richest precinct in town which I did not expect. The surrounding area is certainly well above the city/regional average, but not quite the richest in town (around 14000-18000€), so that precinct stands out quite a bit.

If I had been asked, I would have probably pointed out to the Ciudad Jardín area (large houses in the city center, a bit to the north of where this precinct is) or maybe the Tafira parts that fall inside LPGC (rich suburbs/exurbs, right at the edge of the municipality line)

Of course, in terms of voting places like Ciudad Jardín and Tafira see similar patterns, while similarly, other poor areas in town see similar voting patterns to the places you showed

[Velasco]

Interesting in many Western countries income is no longer a major factor.  In UK age is main factor while in US and Canada its education.  Right does best amongst older voters regardless of income while in Canada and US areas with lots of university educated types favour left while areas with relatively few favour right regardless of income.

I'm not sure that income is no longer a factor in the UK, although I suspect patterns in Canada are quite different. Age is a major factor in Spain. PP is by far the largest party in the age group above 60, while it's only the fourth party in the age group between 18 and 24. Podemos is the preferred party or performs strongly among those voters below 35, Cs is stronger in the 35-44 group and PSOE in the 45-54. Regarding the level of education. it's often correlated to income

Right now I'm looking for income and election results in the richest and the poorest sections in my hometown, Las Palmas de GC. Census sections are the same.

The richest section that I found lies in the coastal highway (Avenida Marítima) that connects the port to the south, not far from the junction with Bravo Murillo street and a public library. District 2, Section 37 LPGC. Income 26948

PP 32%, Cs 28%, Vox 13%, PSOE 12%, UP 6%, CC 3%, Others 5%

To be honest, that is a very surprising place for the richest precinct in town which I did not expect. The surrounding area is certainly well above the city/regional average, but not quite the richest in town (around 14000-18000€), so that precinct stands out quite a bit.

If I had been asked, I would have probably pointed out to the Ciudad Jardín area (large houses in the city center, a bit to the north of where this precinct is) or maybe the Tafira parts that fall inside LPGC (rich suburbs/exurbs, right at the edge of the municipality line)

Of course, in terms of voting places like Ciudad Jardín and Tafira see similar patterns, while similarly, other poor areas in town see similar voting patterns to the places you showed

It surprised me a bit, but I've been at someone's apartment located in that precinct and it's a luxury flat. I know Ciudad Jardín better, though. There are precincts above 20,000 located in Ciudad Jardín, Tafira and in a newer development called La Minilla. I overlooked this, but Cs came first in some of La Minilla precincts. Similarly Cs is the strongest party in some new urban developments north of Madrid, whose inhabitants are usually young professionals.

District 4, Section 73 LPGC. Income 20363

Cs 27%, PSOE 21%, PP 15%, UP 12%, Vox 12%, CC 4%, Others 8%

As you see, PP is surprisingly low for a high income precinct (but Vox is quite high). I think the differences in behaviour are due to the younger age of the residents.

Link to the map of results by precinct:

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/05/01/actualidad/1556730293_254945.html

[parochial boy]

I'm not sure that income is no longer a factor in the UK, although I suspect patterns in Canada are quite different. Age is a major factor in Spain. PP is by far the largest party in the age group above 60, while it's only the fourth party in the age group between 18 and 24. Podemos is the preferred party or performs strongly among those voters below 35, Cs is stronger in the 35-44 group and PSOE in the 45-54. Regarding the level of education. it's often correlated to income

I know they're probably here somewhere; but have you got breakdowns by party by age somewhere?

Curious to see how PSOE and Vox did by age group.

[Velasco]

I'm not sure that income is no longer a factor in the UK, although I suspect patterns in Canada are quite different. Age is a major factor in Spain. PP is by far the largest party in the age group above 60, while it's only the fourth party in the age group between 18 and 24. Podemos is the preferred party or performs strongly among those voters below 35, Cs is stronger in the 35-44 group and PSOE in the 45-54. Regarding the level of education. it's often correlated to income

I know they're probably here somewhere; but have you got breakdowns by party by age somewhere?

Curious to see how PSOE and Vox did by age group.

No, but the data and crosstabs must be available in the CIS post-election survey released in May. The graph below shows the distribution of party vote by age group, according to the CIS. The most remarkable thing is that about a half oh PP voters are older than 65. Vox is more successful among voters aged between 35 and 54, with a peak in the 35-44 segment. Regarding the leftwing vote, the graph shows that Podemos has a strong base among the youngsters and the PSOE vote grows with age.



Some findings on the party vote and interactive graphs

http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20190430/datos-hablan-radiografia-del-voto-voto-grupos-sociales/1930141.shtml

1) The PP vote is stronger in municipalities with higher proportion of retirees

2) The PSOE vote tends to be stronger in municipalities with higher unemployment rate, as well in the municipalities with higher proportion of people with primary education or without education

3) There is a positive correlation between income and the vote for Cs and Vox, but not with the PP. The vote for Cs and Vox drops sharply in the older segments that overwhelmingly vote for PP.

4) The vote for UP is stronger in municipalities with a higher proportion of urban land. The level of education is positively correlated to the vote for UP (but not income).

5) The vote for Vox is stronger in younger populations and among males. Vox performs better in high income municipalities and in those with a higher proportion of foreign nationals registered. Regarding to the latter, I'd say that it's true for the Vox strongholds in Almería or Murcia (El Ejido, Torre Pacheco), but the neighbourhoods in the main cities where Vox gets better results are usually the most affluent and not the places where immigrants use to live.

[Velasco]

I found the data by age group in the CIS post-election survey.

http://www.cis.es/cis/export/sites/default/-Archivos/Marginales/3240_3259/3248/cru3248edad.html

In question 23R respondents answer spontaneously which party they voted in the last general election. Total results:

PSOE 27.2, PP 10.2, Cs 10.8, UP (plus ECP) 12, VOX 4.9, ERC 3.6, JxCAT 1.9, PNV 1.1, Bildu 1

Keep in mind this is raw data including don't know/don't answer and there is a sample bias. Breakdown by age group is as follows

18-24: PSOE 18.4, PP 4.9, Cs 13.5, UP 21.3, VOX 3.3, ERC 3.8, JxCAT 1.6, PNV 0.2, Bildu 2.7
25-34: PSOE 21, PP 4.5, Cs 13.7, UP 20.8, VOX 6.6, ERC 3.5, JxCAT 0.2, PNV 0.7, Bildu 1.1
35-44: PSOE 24.1, PP 6.3, Cs 13.1, UP 14.4, VOX 7.7, ERC 4.4, JxCAT 0.5, PNV 0.5, Bildu 1.3
45-54: PSOE 29.6, PP 7.2, Cs 11.6, UP 11, VOX 5.3, ERC 3.5, JxCAT 1.8, PNV 0.8, Bildu 0.7
55-64: PSOE 30.9, PP 10.9, Cs 9,UP 11.5, VOX 2.8, ERC 4.4, JxCAT 1.8, PNV 1.5, Bildu 1.2
65+: PSOE 31, PP 19.5, Cs 7.1, UP 4.1, VOX 3.4, ERC 2.5, JxCAT 1.3, PNV 2, Bildu 0.2

[Skye]

This is Valladolid. The two brown-ish precincts (by income) correspond to Las Viudas (in Las Delicias) and 29 de Octubre (in Pajarillos), which, if I understand correctly, are Franco-era block housing projects. I saw Las Viudas once, it wasn't a pretty place.

The precinct with the darkest green is in the city centre, (overall a high-income area) and it seems it's the place with the highest income in Castile and Leon. PSOE+UP combined only took 10% of the vote there.

[FredLindq]

So voters that lived under Franco’s rule actually vote conservative in much higher proportion than other voters?!

I'm not sure that income is no longer a factor in the UK, although I suspect patterns in Canada are quite different. Age is a major factor in Spain. PP is by far the largest party in the age group above 60, while it's only the fourth party in the age group between 18 and 24. Podemos is the preferred party or performs strongly among those voters below 35, Cs is stronger in the 35-44 group and PSOE in the 45-54. Regarding the level of education. it's often correlated to income

I know they're probably here somewhere; but have you got breakdowns by party by age somewhere?

Curious to see how PSOE and Vox did by age group.

No, but the data and crosstabs must be available in the CIS post-election survey released in May. The graph below shows the distribution of party vote by age group, according to the CIS. The most remarkable thing is that about a half oh PP voters are older than 65. Vox is more successful among voters aged between 35 and 54, with a peak in the 35-44 segment. Regarding the leftwing vote, the graph shows that Podemos has a strong base among the youngsters and the PSOE vote grows with age.



Some findings on the party vote and interactive graphs

http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20190430/datos-hablan-radiografia-del-voto-voto-grupos-sociales/1930141.shtml

1) The PP vote is stronger in municipalities with higher proportion of retirees

2) The PSOE vote tends to be stronger in municipalities with higher unemployment rate, as well in the municipalities with higher proportion of people with primary education or without education

3) There is a positive correlation between income and the vote for Cs and Vox, but not with the PP. The vote for Cs and Vox drops sharply in the older segments that overwhelmingly vote for PP.

4) The vote for UP is stronger in municipalities with a higher proportion of urban land. The level of education is positively correlated to the vote for UP (but not income).

5) The vote for Vox is stronger in younger populations and among males. Vox performs better in high income municipalities and in those with a higher proportion of foreign nationals registered. Regarding to the latter, I'd say that it's true for the Vox strongholds in Almería or Murcia (El Ejido, Torre Pacheco), but the neighbourhoods in the main cities where Vox gets better results are usually the most affluent and not the places where immigrants use to live.