Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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Velasco
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« Reply #950 on: September 23, 2019, 10:17:46 AM »
« edited: September 23, 2019, 10:22:09 AM by Velasco »

According to El Independiente, Errejón wants to compete in the 17 most populous provinces

Madrid (37 seats); Barcelona (32); Valencia (15); Alicante and Seville (12); Málaga (11); Murcia (10); Cádiz (9); Baleares, A Coruña, Las Palmas and Vizcaya ( 8 ); y Asturias, Granada, Pontevedra, Santa Cruz de Tenerife snd Zaragoza

https://www.elindependiente.com/politica/2019/09/23/errejon-concurrir-10-n-provincias-siete-escanos/

Possible allies: Compromis (Valencia and Alicante; might run with UP), Mes (Balearic Islands) and Equo. The small green party is actually splitted in two factions: the current leadership might join 'Más Pais', while the faction led by Juantxo López  de Uralde will remain loyal to UP.

Question: will Pedro Sánchez sleep and have sweet dreams after November 10?

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jaichind
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« Reply #951 on: September 23, 2019, 10:37:44 AM »

According to El Independiente, Errejón wants to compete in the 17 most populous provinces

Madrid (37 seats); Barcelona (32); Valencia (15); Alicante and Seville (12); Málaga (11); Murcia (10); Cádiz (9); Baleares, A Coruña, Las Palmas and Vizcaya ( 8 ); y Asturias, Granada, Pontevedra, Santa Cruz de Tenerife snd Zaragoza

https://www.elindependiente.com/politica/2019/09/23/errejon-concurrir-10-n-provincias-siete-escanos/

Possible allies: Compromis (Valencia and Alicante; might run with UP), Mes (Balearic Islands) and Equo. The small green party is actually splitted in two factions: the current leadership might join 'Más Pais', while the faction led by Juantxo López  de Uralde will remain loyal to UP.

Question: will Pedro Sánchez sleep and have sweet dreams after November 10?



But would this not also shift some seats to the Right if this splits the Podemos  even if POSE gains so,e too ? So why is Sánchez that much better off under this scenario ?
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jaichind
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« Reply #952 on: September 23, 2019, 11:29:12 AM »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/23/spanish-police-arrest-catalan-separatists-on-suspicion-of-terrorism

"Spanish police arrest Catalan separatists on suspicion of terrorism"
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Velasco
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« Reply #953 on: September 23, 2019, 11:44:40 AM »
« Edited: September 23, 2019, 11:48:32 AM by Velasco »

But would this not also shift some seats to the Right if this splits the Podemos  even if POSE gains so,e too ? So why is Sánchez that much better off under this scenario ?

I didn't say this scenario is going to be better or worse for Sánchez. I was referring to some recent statements made by the acting PM, who  told to a journalist that he couldn't sleep easily with Podemos in the government. Sánchez claims that Podemos people lacks experience (which is true, but this also rules for some of the ministers picked by him) and can't manage important portfolios. This sounds arrogant and disrespectful, but it might help UP in the campaign (it will be hard for Iglesias anyway). It's early to know the effect of the new party. Splitting the leftwing vote in three is not necessarily bad in big constituencies like Madrid, providing that all parties cross the threshold. Electoral hurdles increase in smaller constituencies. If we compare the results of the general and regional elections in Madrid, we could draw some interesting conclusions. Anyway Errejón will have to compete against Iglesias this time, so the correlation of forces will be presumably different. The key factors are how many voters the new  party catches from UP or PSOE and turnout.

Amazingly there are polls running around. El Español says 5.8% and 6-10 seats for the new party in the following cpnstituencies: Madrid (2-3), Barcelona (2-3), Sevilla (1-2), Valencia (1), Alicante (0-1). Total results would be Left 165/Right 159

 https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20190922/espanol-publicara-edicion-primera-encuesta-incluye-errejon/431207122_0.html
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mileslunn
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« Reply #954 on: September 23, 2019, 01:01:14 PM »

Looking at polls it seems Sanchez decision to go is backfiring.  Not enough for the right to win, but all signs are forming a government will be harder not easier so his strategy seemed more based on ego.  C's are declining heavily, but more of that is going to PP than PSOE while UP is holding up.  Things could change, but a PSOE + regionalist parties seems unlikely so someone will have to bend after unless right wins a majority.  Also PSOE + C's looks to be a bit short meaning it may mean regionalist parties play balance of power, although I think most of them would prefer PSOE to seek support from UP than C's.
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jaichind
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« Reply #955 on: September 23, 2019, 01:14:48 PM »

I guess the main risk Sanchez is taking is really that before this upcoming election PSOE-C alliance would have the numbers but after the election even that combination might not have the numbers for a de facto majority.
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Velasco
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« Reply #956 on: September 23, 2019, 04:48:22 PM »

Spokeswoman Monica Oltra and deputy Joan Baldoví announced tonight that Compromís will ally with Errejón. They appreciated the "generous offer" made by UP, but stated the majority feeling within Compromís was to join forces with the 'Más País' project. Ideally they would have preferred a joint list incorporating all parties to the left of PSOE, but that's not possible. Compromís governs in the Valencian Community with PSOE and UP. Mónica Oltra is deputy premier in the regional government led by the socialist Ximo Puig.  Tomorrow we will know more
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« Reply #957 on: September 23, 2019, 08:04:18 PM »

I guess the main risk Sanchez is taking is really that before this upcoming election PSOE-C alliance would have the numbers but after the election even that combination might not have the numbers for a de facto majority.

PSOE-C's would have been the natural progression of things, if everyone didn't have egos the size of Spain. Now PSOE thinks they can monopolize the center, and C's thinks they can be the Salvini of Spain - though we will only learn about latter's potential once he hits the campaign trail and attempts to reverse the present decline
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #958 on: September 23, 2019, 09:07:40 PM »


Ever since the last Election,  Casado has taken the party rightwards. He cracked down on C's locals allying with PSOE and other leftists, he purged a remaining 'macron-type' liberals from the party, and has embraced the anti-Catalan part of their platform. In part, the time was ripe after the results came in, C's could try and out-right PP and gain more  voters, and absorb VOX who failed to take off. Of course, things didn't work out that way, at least so far. Now, the title 'Salvini of Spain' does not include Salvini's key proposals like Migrant cutting. Instead it revolves around a worldview an electoral strategy: pairing right wing cultural outrage (that gives you more votes beyond ones normal reach) with traditional right wing bases - Italy the North, Spain the 'market-liberal' style Conservative suburbs. 
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Velasco
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« Reply #959 on: September 24, 2019, 01:43:41 PM »

Supreme Court backs the exhumation of Franco's remains. Hopefully it will be solved before the elections take place

https://www.politico.eu/article/generalisimo-francisco-franco-grave-remains-exhume-court-backs-exhumation/

Quote
Spain’s Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled that Francisco Franco's remains can be removed from the Valley of the Fallen, endorsing the Socialist government's plans against his descendants' will.

The generalísimo's body is set to be disinterred from the giant mausoleum on the outskirts of Madrid — a basilica dug into a hillside topped by a cross 150 meters high — and relocated to a more discreet cemetery at Mingorrubio, also close to the capital, where Franco’s wife is buried.
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Velasco
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« Reply #960 on: September 25, 2019, 07:21:53 AM »
« Edited: September 25, 2019, 10:19:05 AM by Velasco »

Participants the Sunday meeting decided by acclamation that Más Madrid will participate in elections. More details will be revealed in another meeting this evening, particularly the name of the candidate (Íñigo Errejón, in all likelihood), the name of the project (Más País?), the places where it's going to compete (allegedly provinces with 7+ seats) and the alliances with other parties. Given that Más Madrid does not exist outside the capital region and lacks territorial organization, alliances with existing parties are necessary. Errejón already scored a point with Compromís in the Valencian Community, but alliances in other regions seem much more uncertain. The UP regional allies in Catalonia and Andalusia remain loyal to Iglesias, although in the southern region the organization led by Teresa Rodríguez is seeking to replace Unidas Podemos by Adelante Andalucía in the ballots. Equo, a small environmentalist party with nationwide presence, might split in two: in case the party joins Errejón, the faction led by Juantxo López de Uralde (MP for Álava) will leave and stay in UP. Another Equo member is Madrid councilor Inés Sabanés: the woman who crafted the 'Madrid Central' sides with Errejón and acted as the MM spokeswoman after the last meeting. Some regionalist parties might join Errejón too, including Aragonese Union (Chunta Aragonesista or CHA), En Marea (Galicia) and even New Canaries. However, the ecosocialist and sovereigntist MÉS is more likely to repeat alliance with ERC in the Balearic Islands.

The surge of a new force in the Spanish Left makes previous polls obsolete. I found an interesting estimation of the' Errejón Effect' in El Mundo

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2019/09/25/5d8a772a21efa020248b461e.html


The graphs show three scenarios: 1) Errejón doesn't run; 2) Errejón runs in provinces with 7+ seats; and 3) Errejón runs in all provinces. The results simulation is made on the assumption that the new party will catch 37.5% of UP and 11.5% of PSOE voters in April. There are some provinces where the UP's sole representative could be in danger: namely Zaragoza (Pablo Echenique), Santa Cruz de Tenerife (Alberto Rodríguez) and Murcia.

In the graph beelow, vote estimation and % of seats

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TheSaint250
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« Reply #961 on: September 25, 2019, 09:52:20 AM »



Looks like Errejón’s list will be Más País.
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Velasco
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« Reply #962 on: September 25, 2019, 10:25:05 AM »
« Edited: September 25, 2019, 10:35:36 AM by Velasco »



Looks like Errejón’s list will be Más País.

The electomania staff abuses of deceitful language claiming they are pollsters, a 'panel' or something. The name Más País has been around for a while (I typed it several times on this thread already), hence this is far from being a sensational scoop. Also, a spokesman of the Aragonese regionalist CHA said yesterday something about an agreement with Más País. At the end of the MM meeting on Sunday, people cheered "Más País!, Más País!". I'd be surprised if the Errejón people chooses another name.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #963 on: September 25, 2019, 10:58:17 AM »



Looks like Errejón’s list will be Más País.

The electomania staff abuses of deceitful language claiming they are pollsters, a 'panel' or something. The name Más País has been around for a while (I typed it several times on this thread already), hence this is far from being a sensational scoop. Also, a spokesman of the Aragonese regionalist CHA said yesterday something about an agreement with Más País. At the end of the MM meeting on Sunday, people cheered "Más País!, Más País!". I'd be surprised if the Errejón people chooses another name.

Sorry, I hope you don’t think I posted this like a discovery. I interpreted the tweet as Errejón and his people had finally come to the solid conclusion that they would name the group Más País, but forgive me if I misinterpreted that.
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Velasco
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« Reply #964 on: September 25, 2019, 11:19:06 AM »



Looks like Errejón’s list will be Más País.

The electomania staff abuses of deceitful language claiming they are pollsters, a 'panel' or something. The name Más País has been around for a while (I typed it several times on this thread already), hence this is far from being a sensational scoop. Also, a spokesman of the Aragonese regionalist CHA said yesterday something about an agreement with Más País. At the end of the MM meeting on Sunday, people cheered "Más País!, Más País!". I'd be surprised if the Errejón people chooses another name.

Sorry, I hope you don’t think I posted this like a discovery. I interpreted the tweet as Errejón and his people had finally come to the solid conclusion that they would name the group Más País, but forgive me if I misinterpreted that.

I criticized electomania for saying that's a scoop, not you for posting. There's no reason to apologize. Excuse me if I looked angry
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #965 on: September 25, 2019, 11:42:26 AM »



Looks like Errejón’s list will be Más País.

The electomania staff abuses of deceitful language claiming they are pollsters, a 'panel' or something. The name Más País has been around for a while (I typed it several times on this thread already), hence this is far from being a sensational scoop. Also, a spokesman of the Aragonese regionalist CHA said yesterday something about an agreement with Más País. At the end of the MM meeting on Sunday, people cheered "Más País!, Más País!". I'd be surprised if the Errejón people chooses another name.

Sorry, I hope you don’t think I posted this like a discovery. I interpreted the tweet as Errejón and his people had finally come to the solid conclusion that they would name the group Más País, but forgive me if I misinterpreted that.

I criticized electomania for saying that's a scoop, not you for posting. There's no reason to apologize. Excuse me if I looked angry

Haha no problem. Sorry for the misunderstanding Smiley
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #966 on: September 25, 2019, 02:26:54 PM »

Yeah, Mas Pais has been rumoured for a while now as the name of Errejón's party; with "Somos Más" being an extremely distant second

Mostly because "Más España" would have very obvious connotations and thus is unreasonable for a party in the left Tongue
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mileslunn
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« Reply #967 on: September 25, 2019, 05:52:26 PM »

Yeah, Mas Pais has been rumoured for a while now as the name of Errejón's party; with "Somos Más" being an extremely distant second

Mostly because "Más España" would have very obvious connotations and thus is unreasonable for a party in the left Tongue

How likely do you think it is the election resolves this?  Looking at the polls it looks like a bigger stalemate so will when party cave in?
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Kyng
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« Reply #968 on: September 25, 2019, 06:24:01 PM »

Supreme Court backs the exhumation of Franco's remains. Hopefully it will be solved before the elections take place

https://www.politico.eu/article/generalisimo-francisco-franco-grave-remains-exhume-court-backs-exhumation/

Quote
Spain’s Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled that Francisco Franco's remains can be removed from the Valley of the Fallen, endorsing the Socialist government's plans against his descendants' will.

The generalísimo's body is set to be disinterred from the giant mausoleum on the outskirts of Madrid — a basilica dug into a hillside topped by a cross 150 meters high — and relocated to a more discreet cemetery at Mingorrubio, also close to the capital, where Franco’s wife is buried.

Rumours that he's actually being dug up as a replacement for Trump are unconfirmed.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #969 on: September 25, 2019, 06:30:30 PM »

Yeah, Mas Pais has been rumoured for a while now as the name of Errejón's party; with "Somos Más" being an extremely distant second

Mostly because "Más España" would have very obvious connotations and thus is unreasonable for a party in the left Tongue

How likely do you think it is the election resolves this?  Looking at the polls it looks like a bigger stalemate so will when party cave in?

If results are close to the current polling I guess PSOE eventually caves with a deal not too different from the July one
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Velasco
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« Reply #970 on: September 26, 2019, 12:17:19 AM »
« Edited: September 26, 2019, 01:48:30 AM by Velasco »

It's happening! "Popular leftwing politician forms new party"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/25/spanish-elections-popular-leftwing-politician-forms-new-party-inigo-errejon

Quote
One of the Spanish left’s most popular politicians has announced the creation of a splinter party that will run in the 10 November parliamentary elections, adding further uncertainty to the country’s fourth national ballot in four years (...)

Íñigo Errejón, a co-founder of Podemos, which he left in January after disagreements with its leader, Pablo Iglesias, said he was launching the party, Más País (More Country), because he wanted to help form a government and encourage disillusioned leftwing voters to turn up at the polling stations.

“I understand the widespread anger of the Spanish people with the current leaders and with the political stalemate,” he said in front of a crowd cheering “president”.  

The Más País ticket in Madrid will be headed by Errejón, who allegedly will be flanked by high profile women such as former deputy mayor Marta Higueras or former environment commissioner Inés Sabanés (as I said before, she's from Equo and is the Madrid Central craftswoman). It is still unknown in which provinces will compete Más País. Anyway there is a new GAD3 poll incorporating the new party released today by the conservative ABC newspaper

PSOE 27.2% (121 seats)
PP 21.4% (97)
UP 12.4% (34)
Cs 11.3% (32)
Vox 9.6% (21)
Más País 5.2% (9)
ERC 3.9% (15)
JxCAT 2% (7)
EAJ-PNV 1.6% (6)
EH Bildu 1% (4)
NA+ 0.5% (2)
CC 0.4% (1)
PRC 0.2% (1)

The main conclusion may well be that Sánchez wanted a new election to strengthen his position and will get a more complex parliament in return. Good luck, Pedro

Mostly because "Más España" would have very obvious connotations and thus is unreasonable for a party in the left Tongue

The PSOE and the PCE are the traditional parties of the Spanish Left. The "E" means "Español" and "España", respectively. PP, Cs and Vox don't have the letter "E". "Más País" sounds much better than "Más España". Anyway in case you visit the new party's website, you will notice internet domain is ".es" (Podemos is ".org") and they use the word "España"

Meanwhile PP will try to convince Cs to go into a joint list called "España Suma". Rivera boys are not enthusiastic with the idea, but their polling numbers are rather bad. I believe deadline for coalitions is next Sunday.





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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #971 on: September 26, 2019, 01:07:33 AM »

It's happening! "Popular leftwing politician forms new party"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/25/spanish-elections-popular-leftwing-politician-forms-new-party-inigo-errejon

Quote
One of the Spanish left’s most popular politicians has announced the creation of a splinter party that will run in the 10 November parliamentary elections, adding further uncertainty to the country’s fourth national ballot in four years (...)

Íñigo Errejón, a co-founder of Podemos, which he left in January after disagreements with its leader, Pablo Iglesias, said he was launching the party, Más País (More Country), because he wanted to help form a government and encourage disillusioned leftwing voters to turn up at the polling stations.

“I understand the widespread anger of the Spanish people with the current leaders and with the political stalemate,” he said in front of a crowd cheering “president”.  

The Más País ticket in Madrid will be headed by Errejón, who allegedly will be flanked by high profile women such as former deputy mayor Marta Higueras or former environment commissioner Inés Sabanés (as I said before, she's from Equo and is the Madrid Central craftswoman). It is still unknown in which provinces will compete Más País. Anyway there is a new GAD3 poll incorporating the new party released today by the conservative ABC newspaper

PSOE 27.2% (121 seats)
PP 21.4% (97)
UP 12.4% (34)
Cs 11.3% (32)
Vox 9.6% (21)
Más País 5.2% (9)
ERC 3.9% (15)
JxCAT 2% (7)
EAJ-PNV 1.6% (6)
EH Bildu 1% (4)
NA+ 0.5% (2)
CC 0.4% (1)
PRC 0.2% (1)

The main conclusion may well be that Sánchez wanted a new election to strengthen his position and will get a more complex parliament in return. Good luck, Pedro

Mostly because "Más España" would have very obvious connotations and thus is unreasonable for a party in the left Tongue

The PSOE and the PCE are the traditional parties of the Spanish Left. The "E" means "Español" and "España", respectively. PP, Cs and Vox don't have the letter "E". "Más País" sounds much better than "Más España". Anyway in case if you visit the new party's website, you will notice internet domain is ".es" (Podemos is ".org") and they use the word "España"

Meanwhile PP will try to convince Cs to go into a joint list called "España Suma". Rivera boys are not enthusiastic with the idea, but their polling numbers are rather bad. I believe deadline for coalitions is next Sunday.







Either Sanchez is either the biggest genius ever or he is really, really bad at politics. I guess we'll find out soon. He is trying to be a kind of Spanish Macron, which is interesting because everyone thougjt Macron was bad at politics but now it seems like he's really quite good at them. For what it's worth I think Sanchez is more like May than Macron, which is to say doomed.
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Velasco
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« Reply #972 on: September 26, 2019, 02:07:08 AM »

Either Sanchez is either the biggest genius ever or he is really, really bad at politics. I guess we'll find out soon. He is trying to be a kind of Spanish Macron, which is interesting because everyone thougjt Macron was bad at politics but now it seems like he's really quite good at them. For what it's worth I think Sanchez is more like May than Macron, which is to say doomed.

Don't forget Renzi. There is a photo that dates back to 2014. It was shot in Bologna, Italy, and features four young promising leaders in white shirts: Matteo Renzi, Manuel Valls, Pedro Sánchez and the Dutch Diederik Samsom. The Spaniard is the only one of those third way socialdemocrats who survives on the top. I'll post a link, because there's an affair with copyrighted images here

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180430/443141506095/pedro-sanchez-psoe-socialdemocracia-europa.html

Anyway I don't think Sanchez is doomed. Not yet
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« Reply #973 on: September 26, 2019, 03:18:53 AM »

I'm surprised noone have mentioned this:

Catalan separatists arrested in Spain over 'attack plot'
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49793809

Seems like big escalation?

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Velasco
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« Reply #974 on: September 26, 2019, 03:49:46 AM »

I'm surprised noone have mentioned this:

Catalan separatists arrested in Spain over 'attack plot'
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49793809

Seems like big escalation?


I hope it's not. From what I heard, preliminary evidence points the arrested separatists are individuals acting at their own peril and not members of a terrorist organization. Extreme caution anyway: separatist leaders are awaiting the imminent court ruling and the latter will have consequences
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