Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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  Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021  (Read 195303 times)
Former President tack50
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« Reply #1000 on: October 14, 2019, 06:50:48 PM »

I mean crimes like public funds misuse and corruption are also technically "victimless crimes". Except they are not. The victim in those cases is society as a whole.

This also applies here; the victim in this crime is Spanish society and the state as a whole.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1001 on: October 14, 2019, 08:04:53 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2019, 08:42:49 PM by Velasco »


Why? Whether one agrees with Catalan Independence as a principle or not, what they did and the way that they did it was clearly a violation of the law and the Constitution. The Spanish Constitutional Court made that very clear before they did it, and they still went ahead with it. I have no doubt that every Court in a Country with the rule of law would have judged the same as the Spanish Supreme Court just did.  

I don't even agree with Catalan Independence as a principle!

For crying out loud, we're talking about locking people up for more than a decade for holding a sham referendum that would have changed nothing even if it had been allowed. This is a comical level of overreaction (or it would be comical if actual people's lives hadn't been ruined by it). Libertarians love to talk on and on about "victimless crimes", but this IS the ultimate victimless crime. No tangible harm whatsoever was caused by the referendum itself - in fact, most of the harm came, again, from the Spanish state's paranoid attempts to stop the referendum. This is exactly the kind of repressive escalation that's likely to drive more Catalans toward nationalism, and break the country apart.

It wasn't only the sham referéndum. Much more serious, in my opinion, was the legislation passed weeks before by the Parliament of Catalonia,  which allegedly paved the way to the referendum revoking the validity of the Spanish Constitution an the Catalan Statute of Autonomy. The following month (late October, 2017) was voted the unilateral declaration of independence.

The Catalan separatist leaders breached the laws, performing a baroque pantomime of disobedience. I feel they are guilty for causing division and pain within the society, telling lies to their supporters with deceptive fairy tales, childishness and irresponsibility. Making things worse, separatists even lacked popular legitimacy. They have a narrow majority in parliament with less than a half of the popular vote. However they assumed to be acting in the name of all the Catalan people, while ignoring the other half of Catalans.

I think all this madness must have consequences (premier Torra, who is a hooligan, said that anything but release was unacceptable), but I wouldn't call it "sedition" and would never have sent the perpetrators 9 to 13 years in prison. The punishment is not as hard as "rebellion", but is still disproportionate. The inept Vox lawyer and secretary general, Javier Ortega Smith, thinks the ruling of the Supreme Court has been too soft...

(I'll be out for some days or weeks, possibly will be back for the elections)
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1002 on: October 15, 2019, 02:59:04 AM »

I mean crimes like public funds misuse and corruption are also technically "victimless crimes". Except they are not. The victim in those cases is society as a whole.

This also applies here; the victim in this crime is Spanish society and the state as a whole.

This kind of measure will definitely improve the fulcrum of Spanish society.
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Farmlands
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« Reply #1003 on: October 15, 2019, 08:32:47 AM »

I mean crimes like public funds misuse and corruption are also technically "victimless crimes". Except they are not. The victim in those cases is society as a whole.

This also applies here; the victim in this crime is Spanish society and the state as a whole.

Manifestations in favour of Spanish unity sure can cause high tempers and frissures in society, yet they are lauded by politicians, but God forbid arranging meetings for separatists, now that is surely an unthinkable crime worthy of nine freaking years in prison. From a portuguese very disappointed with its neighbour country.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1004 on: October 15, 2019, 12:14:36 PM »

I can't believe people here are seriously defending locking people up for longer than that Dallas killer cop for the crime of holding a fake election, in the name of MUH NATIONAL UNITY or some other abstract bullsh*t. Seems like the authoritarian culture in Spanish society hasn't declined all that much since Franco's days.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1005 on: October 15, 2019, 01:17:55 PM »

I mean crimes like public funds misuse and corruption are also technically "victimless crimes". Except they are not. The victim in those cases is society as a whole.

This also applies here; the victim in this crime is Spanish society and the state as a whole.

This kind of measure will definitely improve the fulcrum of Spanish society.

Spain is already divided and this ruling is roughly along the lines of what was expected (it was also partially leaked a few days before so it's not a massive surprise). This won't improve things but it certainly isn't making them much worse.

Also, this is probably the "lesser evil" sentence. Let's look at the other 2 main possibilities:

1) The Catalan politicians are found guilty of rebellion. This means even longer prison sentences (25 years) and basically means this would be equivalent to the 1981 coup attempt. The Spanish right would be happy, but Catalonia would be on fire right now (even more so) and the Spanish left would be very split (Podemos against and PSOE probably with a "we disagree but this needs to be respected" opinion I guess).

2) The Catalan politicians are found not guilty of all charges (other than disobedience which technically does not carry a prison sentence). Secessionists would be happy but it's not as if they are suddenly going to stop and become unionists. And of course the Spanish right would be furious and demanding appeals somewhere or changing the criminal code. They probably also get a big boost in the November election.

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Farmlands
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« Reply #1006 on: October 15, 2019, 01:47:55 PM »

I mean crimes like public funds misuse and corruption are also technically "victimless crimes". Except they are not. The victim in those cases is society as a whole.

This also applies here; the victim in this crime is Spanish society and the state as a whole.

This kind of measure will definitely improve the fulcrum of Spanish society.

Spain is already divided and this ruling is roughly along the lines of what was expected (it was also partially leaked a few days before so it's not a massive surprise). This won't improve things but it certainly isn't making them much worse.

Also, this is probably the "lesser evil" sentence. Let's look at the other 2 main possibilities:

1) The Catalan politicians are found guilty of rebellion. This means even longer prison sentences (25 years) and basically means this would be equivalent to the 1981 coup attempt. The Spanish right would be happy, but Catalonia would be on fire right now (even more so) and the Spanish left would be very split (Podemos against and PSOE probably with a "we disagree but this needs to be respected" opinion I guess).

2) The Catalan politicians are found not guilty of all charges (other than disobedience which technically does not carry a prison sentence). Secessionists would be happy but it's not as if they are suddenly going to stop and become unionists. And of course the Spanish right would be furious and demanding appeals somewhere or changing the criminal code. They probably also get a big boost in the November election.



So, in your view, it's absolutely reasonable for people whose worse crime was setting up reunions get sentenced to 9 years in jail, because keeping the right wingers at bay overweighs human rights (logic which has been used to justify many atrocities throughout history). Calling it a case of messed up priorities would be an understatement.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1007 on: October 15, 2019, 01:53:33 PM »


So, in your view, it's absolutely reasonable for people whose worse crime was setting up reunions get sentenced to 9 years in jail, because keeping the right wingers at bay overweighs human rights (logic which has been used to justify many atrocities throughout history). Calling it a case of messed up priorities would be an understatement.

Their "worst crime" was not setting up reunions lol. They organized a massive illegal referendum, breaking multiple laws that ended with several incidents in the streets (though that was unfortunate).

They also repeatedly passed laws to secede Catalonia illegally and to not respect the Spanish Constitution and even the Catalan regional constitution! (Apparently 68/135 votes in favour is enough to unilaterally secede but not to reform the regional constitution).

They repeatedly broke the law and they got punished for it. The punishment is also mostly fair in my opinion.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #1008 on: October 15, 2019, 01:56:19 PM »

Offences against the State do actually exist, even if one dislikes this fact on moral grounds, and they do exist in any Jurisdiction in the world, not just in Spain.
Having a referendum was not illegal, in fact they could have had it perfectly legally if they would have done it as a private initiative, that means used their own money, their own ballot papers, their own polling stations and so on. Or they could have just done it on the Internet like the Venetians did.
What was a crime, was them embezzling public money on a illegal referendum, going against multiple judgements of the Constitutional Court and ripping up the Spanish Constitution. Those are against the law in every western country, namely misuse of public funds, contempt of court and sedition against the constitution and they would be held accountable for them. And they do have victims, as tack correctly pointed out.    

Leaving that aside, the Spanish State does not have any obligation to allow a referendum at all, especially not a sham referendum. Spain is allowed to secure its territorial integrity as it sees fit. One can of course take the British approach, that is let them have a referendum, and if they dont like the result allow another ... and so on. That Spain refuses to go down that path however, is why, odds are, that Spain will still be one country in 10 years time, while Britain will not. Wink  
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1009 on: October 15, 2019, 02:05:05 PM »

Whatever. Fine them for the cost of the referendum if you really want the money back. Just don't throw people in prison for a political crime.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #1010 on: October 15, 2019, 02:13:10 PM »

Even if Embezzlement were their only crime, that by itself already is punishable with long prison sentences. Up to ten years in the U.S. for instance.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1011 on: October 15, 2019, 02:15:03 PM »

What I particularly like about the Catalan issue is how utterly unsympathetic both the Catalan and Spanish nationalists come across as. Turning this into a protracted constitutional crisis in what, lets be honest, is a country that has already had an unfairly rough time really deserves nothing but scorn.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1012 on: October 15, 2019, 02:22:31 PM »

Even if Embezzlement were their only crime, that by itself already is punishable with long prison sentences. Up to ten years in the U.S. for instance.

For a comparison, former regional presidents of Andalucía: Manuel Chaves and Antonio Griñán are currently on trial for a corruption and embezzlement case (ERE case). The amount of money stolen is much higher than in the Catalan one. The Spanish prosecutors are asking for 6 years in prison for them.

The amount of money is much higher (iirc the money embezzled was about 1 million € for Catalonia compared to roughly 145 million for the ERE case) so it also follows that the jail time will be lower.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1013 on: October 16, 2019, 07:01:38 AM »

Lots of big protests have happened in Catalonia since the ruling was published, beginning with a takeover of Barcelona airport. Some protests have had some violent incidents, and the rail service to France was disrupted.

Protests will continue for at the very least the rest of the week, culminating on a general strike on Friday.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/16/police-clash-with-catalonia-protesters-in-second-night-of-violence
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #1014 on: October 16, 2019, 11:23:15 AM »

If the right wins (PP/C/Vox have a majority) how difficult will it be for Casado and Rivera to agree on a coalition and secure support from Vox? And how long do you expect the negotiations to last?
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Simfan34
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« Reply #1015 on: October 18, 2019, 06:19:55 PM »

How exactly is government formation going to work here?
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« Reply #1016 on: October 19, 2019, 04:43:47 AM »

It seems obvious that the Catalan issue will be the defining one for the next GE.
Don't really know how it will affect the parties...will Vox rise to third place?
Will Cs recover some credibility?
Will Sanchez's handling of the crisis get him over the line without the Catalan parties - I guess they wouldn't happily support a PSOE-UP government right now...
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Mike88
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« Reply #1017 on: October 19, 2019, 06:34:58 AM »

Sanchéz strategy, IMO, seems to let the protests and violent clashes create a mood of frustration and anger in the Catalan society against the independence movements. If, in the past, sending more police to Barcelona didn't help, could the "let them burn strategy", and Torra's ridiculous flip-flop about the protests, turn many people in Catalonia against independence? 
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bigic
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« Reply #1018 on: October 20, 2019, 01:25:50 PM »

"Teruel Existe" might get in

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El Betico
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« Reply #1019 on: October 21, 2019, 06:15:59 PM »

I'm worried. Without the Catalans and the pro-ETA Basques I don't think there will be a left-wing majority...still, I don't want a Spanish version of Grosse Koalition...in other words, I don't expect next election to be resolutive.
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ctrepublican512
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« Reply #1020 on: October 25, 2019, 04:35:47 AM »

From the polls I’ve seen...is it safe to assume C vote is going to PP and Vox is maintaining their 10% and change?
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1021 on: October 26, 2019, 06:23:05 AM »

I haven't been covering the election much or even paying much attention to be honest. Still, here are the campaign slogan from each of the parties in Congress right now that I could find. These seem to be pre-campaign slogans, so they will probably add a 2nd formal campaign slogan next weekend:

PSOE: Spain Now (España Ahora)
PP: For everything that unites us (Por todo lo que nos une)
Cs: Spain on the move (España en marcha)
Podemos: A government with you (Un gobierno contigo)
Vox: Spain forever (España siempre)

Notice Vox's campaign slogan is a direct attack to PSOE. Similarly, Cs seems to have gone full Macron lol.

I was unable to find the slogans from any of the nationalist and regional parties for some reason.

From the polls I’ve seen...is it safe to assume C vote is going to PP and Vox is maintaining their 10% and change?

Yeah, many former Cs voters seem to be going to PP for some reason. Meanwhile Vox isn't just maintaining their 10% but actually expanding on it a bit. In fact I would put them as slight favourites for being third.

I'm worried. Without the Catalans and the pro-ETA Basques I don't think there will be a left-wing majority...still, I don't want a Spanish version of Grosse Koalition...in other words, I
 don't expect next election to be resolutive.

The worst case scenario for the left (barring a PP-Cs-Vox win of course) is a scenario where ruling the country depends on JxCat and CUP. If that happens, Spain will get a third election or a grand coalition.

However I don't think a grand coalition is likely at all (or for that matter a PSOE minority propped up by PP abstaining). Either way, I agree this election won't be resolutive at all and the next parliament won't last for that long.

I wonder how long until politicians start advocating for a more majoritarian system. I have seen a Greece style bonus to the winner floated from time to time, which I personally dislike a lot. I've also seen 2 round systems or "automatic majority" systems floated, though usually for local elections only.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1022 on: October 26, 2019, 06:28:16 AM »
« Edited: October 26, 2019, 06:35:14 AM by tack50 »

Also if anyone is interested, here is the current polling average:

PSOE: 27.3% (122)
PP: 22.1% (100)
UP: 12.4% (32)
Vox: 10.9% (33)
Cs: 9.8% (19)
MP: 4.4% (5)
Others: 39

Vox ties Podemos in seats despite losing the popular vote because of their more rural vote distribution (Vox gets a lot of former Cs seats in inland Spain); and also a more efficient one (Vox wastes less votes in Catalonia/Basque Country and the like than Podemos wastes in inland rural Spain)

By coalition:

PSOE-UP-MP: 44.1% (159)
PP-Cs-Vox: 42.8% (152)
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ctrepublican512
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« Reply #1023 on: October 28, 2019, 04:59:21 PM »

It would be insane for PP to not have Vox in a coalition if the votes are there at this point, correct?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1024 on: October 28, 2019, 05:43:06 PM »

Man C's really blew it. First they try to reorient hard to the right, and lose their centrist voters. After realizing said voters were far more numerous then their elected politicians would suggest, the return to the center. But now they lose the nationalist-right wing of their party who jumped for the now appealing parties. Meanwhile the centrist type of voters won't come back because C's factional problems are now laid wide for all to see.
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