Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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  Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021  (Read 195205 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #1025 on: October 28, 2019, 05:48:19 PM »

Also if anyone is interested, here is the current polling average:

PSOE: 27.3% (122)
PP: 22.1% (100)
UP: 12.4% (32)
Vox: 10.9% (33)
Cs: 9.8% (19)
MP: 4.4% (5)
Others: 39

Vox ties Podemos in seats despite losing the popular vote because of their more rural vote distribution (Vox gets a lot of former Cs seats in inland Spain); and also a more efficient one (Vox wastes less votes in Catalonia/Basque Country and the like than Podemos wastes in inland rural Spain)

By coalition:

PSOE-UP-MP: 44.1% (159)
PP-Cs-Vox: 42.8% (152)

Should we not add NA+ to the Center-Right bloc ?
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1026 on: October 28, 2019, 05:49:49 PM »

Also if anyone is interested, here is the current polling average:

PSOE: 27.3% (122)
PP: 22.1% (100)
UP: 12.4% (32)
Vox: 10.9% (33)
Cs: 9.8% (19)
MP: 4.4% (5)
Others: 39

Vox ties Podemos in seats despite losing the popular vote because of their more rural vote distribution (Vox gets a lot of former Cs seats in inland Spain); and also a more efficient one (Vox wastes less votes in Catalonia/Basque Country and the like than Podemos wastes in inland rural Spain)

By coalition:

PSOE-UP-MP: 44.1% (159)
PP-Cs-Vox: 42.8% (152)

Should we not add NA+ to the Center-Right bloc ?

You can if you want I guess but most polls do put them separately I think. Anyways it's a small change, just add about 0.2-0.3% in the popular vote and 2 seats to the right in that case.
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Skye
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« Reply #1027 on: October 29, 2019, 07:53:02 AM »
« Edited: October 29, 2019, 08:13:39 AM by Skye »

Went out to buy bread, ended up finding PM Pedro Sánchez exiting a bar to deliver a speech:



Apparently Sánchez came to town to campaign, since PSOE wants to capture Palencia's third deputy (the province only elects 3 deputies since it's so small), which they narrowly lost to C's in the previous election. The April results were these:

PSOE: 31.3 (1)
PP: 29.6 (1)
C's:15.9 (1)
VOX: 11.7
UP:9.2

Now, since Ciudadanos seems to have collapsed and the PP has recovered in the polls, I think it's more likely that the PP ends up winning that third seat. I'm not an expert though.
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ctrepublican512
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« Reply #1028 on: October 29, 2019, 03:05:31 PM »

Spain, CIS poll:

PSOE-S&D: 32% (+3)
PP-EPP: 18% (+1)
UP-LEFT: 15% (+1)
Cs-RE: 11% (-4)
VOX-ECR: 8% (-2)
ERC-G/EFA: 4%
MP-LEFT|G/EFA: 3% (+2)
JxCat-NI: 2%
PNV-RE: 2%
...

+/- vs. April election

Fieldwork: 21/09-13/10/2019
Sample size: 17,650
europeelects.eu/spain
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1029 on: October 30, 2019, 03:31:04 AM »

Spain, CIS poll:

PSOE-S&D: 32% (+3)
PP-EPP: 18% (+1)
UP-LEFT: 15% (+1)
Cs-RE: 11% (-4)
VOX-ECR: 8% (-2)
ERC-G/EFA: 4%
MP-LEFT|G/EFA: 3% (+2)
JxCat-NI: 2%
PNV-RE: 2%
...

+/- vs. April election

Fieldwork: 21/09-13/10/2019
Sample size: 17,650
europeelects.eu/spain

If this happens then I was wrong and Sanchez is a genius. Also, I might move to Spain. On the other hand, it's one poll.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1030 on: October 30, 2019, 03:40:06 AM »

CIS polls are a meme at this point and should be discarded.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1031 on: October 30, 2019, 03:44:30 AM »

CIS polls are a meme at this point and should be discarded.

I mean, I haven't requested a visa quite yet.
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ctrepublican512
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« Reply #1032 on: October 30, 2019, 10:27:59 AM »

Spain, SyM Consulting poll:

PSOE-S&D: 27% (-2)
PP-EPP: 22% (+5)
VOX-ECR: 14% (+4)
Cs-RE: 10% (-6)
UP-LEFT: 10% (-4)
ERC-G/EFA: 4%
MP-LEFT|G/EFA: 3% (+2)

+/- vs. April 2019 election

Fieldwork: 26-27 October 2019
Sample size: 1,923
europeelects.eu/spain
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El Betico
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« Reply #1033 on: October 31, 2019, 07:24:44 PM »

Spain, CIS poll:

PSOE-S&D: 32% (+3)
PP-EPP: 18% (+1)
UP-LEFT: 15% (+1)
Cs-RE: 11% (-4)
VOX-ECR: 8% (-2)
ERC-G/EFA: 4%
MP-LEFT|G/EFA: 3% (+2)
JxCat-NI: 2%
PNV-RE: 2%
...

+/- vs. April election

Fieldwork: 21/09-13/10/2019
Sample size: 17,650
europeelects.eu/spain

Dream


Spain, SyM Consulting poll:

PSOE-S&D: 27% (-2)
PP-EPP: 22% (+5)
VOX-ECR: 14% (+4)
Cs-RE: 10% (-6)
UP-LEFT: 10% (-4)
ERC-G/EFA: 4%
MP-LEFT|G/EFA: 3% (+2)

+/- vs. April 2019 election

Fieldwork: 26-27 October 2019
Sample size: 1,923
europeelects.eu/spain

Nightmare
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1034 on: November 02, 2019, 07:23:55 AM »

The election campaign has just started, and that means I am posting all the election posters. First of all, the posters from the national parties. The slogans are the same I posted earlier, so no reason to translate them again.













To be honest they all look very similar and none are that appealing imo. I guess PSOE has the least bad one (horrible text placement though). Vox is also decent and MP goes with an interesting non-rectangular poster).

Meanwhile, here are the ones from the regional parties as well as translated slogans:

ERC: "We will come back stronger" https://ep01.epimg.net/ccaa/imagenes/2019/10/28/catalunya/1572268034_524107_1572268268_noticia_normal.jpg
JxCat: "For Catalonia, for independence, no steps backwards".
https://media.theobjective.com/2019/10/jxcat-hara-campana-con-presos-en-los-carteles-y-el-lema-ni-un-voto-atras.jpg
PNV: "Here PNV"
https://www.eaj-pnv.eus/redimstd/1200/675/adjuntos/pnvNoticias/49488_imagen_0.jpg/eaj-pnv-activa-su-servicio-especial-de-comunicacio
Bildu: "One more step"
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIRanTPXkAAEP-L.jpg:large
CC-NC: "Let's make the Canaries stronger"
https://elapuron.com/media/2019/11/post/Pegada-Carteles-La-Palma.jpg
PRC: "Cantabria wins"
https://m.eldiario.es/fotos/repeticion-electoral-propicia-partidos-abstencion_EDIIMA20191101_0008_4.jpg

CUP: "Ungovernables"
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIR1-UEX0AEI6s2.jpg:large
Teruel Exists: "It's Teruel's turn"
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIRsASkXUAAd7no.jpg
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #1035 on: November 02, 2019, 08:33:47 AM »

Probably the best illustration of the problem with the machismo and "strong leaders" in Spanish politics.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1036 on: November 04, 2019, 05:52:10 AM »

Probably the best illustration of the problem with the machismo and "strong leaders" in Spanish politics.

Yeah I guess. That also makes the minor parties more interesting, particularly TE and CUP. The former using a map of Teruel province and the latter using an upside down picture of the famous lion statues in the door of the Spanish congress.

Another interesting minor poster is that from PRC, who is literally just recycling their April posters and slogans lol.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1037 on: November 04, 2019, 06:05:41 AM »

Anyways, today was the last day that polling was legally allowed to be published. Not sure if we will see more polls tonight, but most pollsters seem to have published them between Sunday night and Monday morning. I will not post all of them, but I will post the final polling average:

PSOE: 27% (118)
PP: 21% (96)
Vox: 14% (46)
UP: 12% (33)
Cs: 9% (14)
MP: 4% (4)
Others: 39

Total left: 43% (155)
Total right: 44% (156)

So a total tie. In theory this would mean the election is too close to call, but the right has literally no allies within the "others" group (other than NA+ and maybe CC, and this last one is a stretch)

In terms of the evolution, the big changes seem to be a total Cs collapse and a massive rise for Vox. Keep in mind that Vox will get very few votes and no seats in like a third of the country (Catalonia, Basque Country, Canary Islands, Galicia); so the fact that they are this high is remarkable as it means they would be close to 20% in the rest of Spain!

In fact a recient regional poll of Andalucia put Vox in a clear third and within the margin of error from PP! For some reason the former stronghold of the left is making a hard right wing turn. If you are a believer in the Global Trends stuff, I guess Andalucia and Southern Spain are full of #populists Purple heart while Catalonia is full of #coastal elitists  Broken heart

If anyone is interested in sub-national polling Wikipedia has a great database
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Skye
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« Reply #1038 on: November 04, 2019, 06:23:04 AM »

Total left: 43% (155)
Total right: 44% (156)

So a total tie. In theory this would mean the election is too close to call, but the right has literally no allies within the "others" group (other than NA+ and maybe CC, and this last one is a stretch)

The Right bloc was leading in the polls for the April elections, and the final result was a near-tie. El País seems to have erased their aggregate polling for the April elections, so I don't know the exact numbers.

Now the blocs are tied, so I guess either one of them could overperform!

In terms of the evolution, the big changes seem to be a total Cs collapse and a massive rise for Vox. Keep in mind that Vox will get very few votes and no seats in like a third of the country (Catalonia, Basque Country, Canary Islands, Galicia); so the fact that they are this high is remarkable as it means they would be close to 20% in the rest of Spain!

I'm super interested in the places where C's ran strong in the April elections. Places like the PAU's in northern Madrid (Las Tablas, Valdebebas), the wealthy municipalities to the northwest of Madrid (Pozuelo de Alarcón, Las Rozas de Madrid). Heck, near where I live, in Valladolid C's performed quite well, they got over 20% in most of the (I guess you could call them suburban?) municipalities that surround the capital city. Given their collapse in the polls, I wonder where most of their votes will end up now.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1039 on: November 05, 2019, 11:32:26 AM »

Heh.

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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1040 on: November 05, 2019, 11:37:07 AM »

Of course, what would any Spanish election be without analyzing the price of fruits in Andorra Tongue

Tbh I wonder if we will ever get rid of this dumb old custom. It should probably be reduced to just the last day (Saturday before the election); not the entire week.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1041 on: November 05, 2019, 05:44:59 PM »

I suspect Vox will have a great election night. Santiago Abascal was the winner of the TV debate held on Monday, according to some commentators.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/11/05/inenglish/1572942887_385671.html

Quote
The televised debate on Monday night between the five main candidates to become Spain’s next prime minister underscored that the battle for votes is taking place in the center of the political spectrum (...) 
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Skye
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« Reply #1042 on: November 06, 2019, 03:55:49 AM »

I suspect Vox will have a great election night. Santiago Abascal was the winner of the TV debate held on Monday, according to some commentators.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/11/05/inenglish/1572942887_385671.html

Quote
The televised debate on Monday night between the five main candidates to become Spain’s next prime minister underscored that the battle for votes is taking place in the center of the political spectrum (...) 

To be fair, the polling trends before the debate clearly had VOX rising, if they do perform well, I don't think we'll know exactly how much of that was because of the debate.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1043 on: November 06, 2019, 09:30:52 AM »

GESOP for El Periòdic D'Andorra

PSOE 26.6% 115-120
PP 19% 80-85
VOX 15% 50-55
UP 12.8% 34-38
Cs 8.2% 13-17
ERC 3.6% 14-15
MP 2.8% 2-4
JxCAT1.5% 6-7
CUP 1.5% 4-5
Others 9% 14-17

https://sondeos.elperiodic.ad/sondeo-elecciones-generales-noviembre-2019-primera-entrega.html
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Velasco
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« Reply #1044 on: November 06, 2019, 09:40:41 AM »

I suspect Vox will have a great election night. Santiago Abascal was the winner of the TV debate held on Monday, according to some commentators.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/11/05/inenglish/1572942887_385671.html

Quote
The televised debate on Monday night between the five main candidates to become Spain’s next prime minister underscored that the battle for votes is taking place in the center of the political spectrum (...)

To be fair, the polling trends before the debate clearly had VOX rising, if they do perform well, I don't think we'll know exactly how much of that was because of the debate.

I know. Turbulence in Catalonia favours the mobilization of ultra-nationalist voters (VOX in the rest of Spain and CUP in Catalonia); election fatigue favours abstention, particularly in the left. Perfect recipe for a nightmarish scenario. The point is that Abascal was perceived as the winner because nobody challenged his demagoguery and fake arguments, as well because people is fed up with the rest of leaders. Only Iglesias made a decent performance, but not as good as in the April debate.
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DL
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« Reply #1045 on: November 06, 2019, 11:27:35 AM »

GESOP for El Periòdic D'Andorra

PSOE 26.6% 115-120
PP 19% 80-85
VOX 15% 50-55
UP 12.8% 34-38
Cs 8.2% 13-17
ERC 3.6% 14-15
MP 2.8% 2-4
JxCAT1.5% 6-7
CUP 1.5% 4-5
Others 9% 14-17

https://sondeos.elperiodic.ad/sondeo-elecciones-generales-noviembre-2019-primera-entrega.html


What government could possibly be formed under that result?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1046 on: November 06, 2019, 11:38:48 AM »

GESOP for El Periòdic D'Andorra

PSOE 26.6% 115-120
PP 19% 80-85
VOX 15% 50-55
UP 12.8% 34-38
Cs 8.2% 13-17
ERC 3.6% 14-15
MP 2.8% 2-4
JxCAT1.5% 6-7
CUP 1.5% 4-5
Others 9% 14-17

https://sondeos.elperiodic.ad/sondeo-elecciones-generales-noviembre-2019-primera-entrega.html


What government could possibly be formed under that result?

If PSOE and Podemos can sort out their differences this time, the could probably get someone to abstain and allow them to form a coalition or a confidence and supply govt. Nobody's going to be abstaining for a govt with VOX, so the PP+VOX+C's (if C's is still around...) needs to be north of 170 to have a real shot at power.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1047 on: November 06, 2019, 05:24:51 PM »
« Edited: November 06, 2019, 06:09:51 PM by Velasco »

I think there's no chance for a coalition or agreement between PSOE and UP. Given that a rightwing majority is unlikely and there are no other alternatives except more elections, I guess Sánchez will try to reach a deal with the PP that allows him to govern alone. It won't be for free and it will entail a turn to the right. Apparently, Grand Coalition i not on the table for now
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #1048 on: November 06, 2019, 06:57:19 PM »

I just saw this image:


Do Spanish politicians not get mocked for using props like most would?
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Velasco
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« Reply #1049 on: November 06, 2019, 10:13:05 PM »
« Edited: November 08, 2019, 07:15:17 AM by Velasco »

I just saw this image:


Do Spanish politicians not get mocked for using props like most would?

Rivera and his cobble stone -allegedly from the riots in the streets of Barcelona- are the most popular debate meme. In my opinion he deserves to be mocked, as the man seems to me unbearable and overacted.

On the other hand, the violence seen in Barcelona during the recent protests was serious. Incidents were provoked by radical pro-independence groups, with the support of some 'professional' rioters coming from abroad and the rest of Spain. The main protests were peaceful, but the vandalism of some minority groups was impressive. It's a shame that premier Torra and other separatists fail to condemn this violence, while criticize the occasional abuses of their  regional police (they should condemn or criticize both, in any case). However, the response pf the central government was proportionate and the collaboration between national and regional polices was satisfactory. Despite this, the Spanish Right took advantage of the incidents to demand exceptional measures: Casado wants to implement the national security law and put regional police under the control of the central government; Rivera wants to implement article 155 and direct rule over Catalonia; Abascal goes further and demands the state of emergency in Catalonia, the abolition of regional autonomy, illegalize separatist parties and the imprisonment of premier Joaquim Torra. Thankfully Pedro Sánchez resisted the presure from the rightwing opposition and some Madrid circles. The climate is insane and I'm pessimistic about the outcome of this election.
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