Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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Skye
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« Reply #1050 on: November 07, 2019, 05:37:55 AM »

I just saw this image:


Do Spanish politicians not get mocked for using props like most would?

I've seen some hilarious memes out of this image.

I personally found it bizarre when it happened.
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El Betico
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« Reply #1051 on: November 07, 2019, 05:22:35 PM »

I'm going to vote Errejon. Tactical move.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1052 on: November 07, 2019, 05:34:40 PM »

I'm going to vote Errejon. Tactical move.

Unless you live in Madrid, Valencia, Barcelona or Alicante it is likely to be a wasted vote tbh. Especially in places like Las Palmas or Vizcaya.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1053 on: November 08, 2019, 06:15:38 AM »

I'm going to vote Errejon. Tactical move.

Unless you live in Madrid, Valencia, Barcelona or Alicante it is likely to be a wasted vote tbh. Especially in places like Las Palmas or Vizcaya.

I voted UP in April for tactical reasons. It worked well for me, because UP retained the second seat in Las Palmas. It's highly unlikely it will happen again: the seat will go for that vapid careerist Pedro Quevedo. I have decided to waste my ballot and vote for Más País, despite I'm dissapointed with the leader and his núcleo irradiador
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Velasco
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« Reply #1054 on: November 08, 2019, 07:08:53 AM »

Interesting debate last night between the sopkeswomen of the main parties. Participants were:

-María Jesús Montero, Finance miister and PSOE candidate for Sevilla

 -Ana Pastor, former Congress Speaker and PP candidate for Madrid (second in the list behind Pablo Casado)

-Inés Arrimadas: Cs spokeswoman in Congress and former leader of the opposition in Catalonia

-Irebe ontero: UP spokeswoman in Congress, second in madrid behind her partner Pablo Iglesias

-Rocío Monasterio: Vox spokeswoman in the Madrid Regional Assembly, wife of the Congress sopkesman Iván Espinosa de los Monteros.

In my opinion this debate was much more interesting than the leders' debate held on Monday. tThe discussion was more focused on issues (there is life beyond the conflict in catalonia) and the confrontation was less bitter. No clear winners or losers: all of them scored their points. These women proved to be superior to their party leaders, particularly in the case of Inés Arrimadas. The arguments of the Vox representative (Monasterio has awful views, but is clearly smarter than Abascal) were challenged and María Jes´ús Montero asked her to apologize for criminalizing unaccompanied migrant children (why the vile demagoguery of Abascal was not callenged on Monday?). Ana Pastor represents a more institutional and moderate PP (Rajoy loyal), as a representative of the Galician branch she defended the advantages of our decentralized "state of autonomies" against Monasterio. Irene Montero was solid.

Vox and Catalonia domiante the end of campaign. Fear

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/11/08/inenglish/1573201182_483408.html

Quote

As Spanish politicians enter the home stretch of the election campaign, candidates have dropped topics like the economy or technology, and are instead focusing on Catalonia and Vox, the far-right party that is soaring in voting intention.

The right-of-center Popular Party (PP) and Ciudadanos (Citizens) on Thursday supported a proposal made by Vox in the Madrid regional assembly to “immediately outlaw” any separatist parties “that attack the unity of the nation.”

The initiative was merely symbolic, but it illustrated how the PP and Ciudadanos are scrambling to attract undecided voters by embracing far-right proposals in a way that would have been unthinkable until very recently.
Academics take a stand against Vox

More than 1,600 professors and researchers have signed a statement denouncing the “manipulation of figures” by Vox leader Santiago Abascal at the televised election debate on Monday night.

The document accuses Santiago Abascal of trying to establish false “cause-and-effect relationships between irregular immigration and urban crime, the foreign population and gang rape, the cost of regional management to the state” by misrepresenting statistics and the results of sociological reports.

“Covering up an ideological agenda of extreme nationalism based on intolerance, racism and xenophobia with supposedly objective data, not only discredits and distorts the work of thousands of social researchers, it hurts the foundations of social harmony,” it adds.

Meanwhile the Socialist Party (PSOE), which has been heading a caretaker administration since the inconclusive election of April 28, has also taken a harder line on Catalan separatism during this campaign, but it does not seem to have had the desired effects. Surveys show that Pedro Sánchez’s party could even lose seats, although it is still expected to be the winner on Sunday with around 121 representatives in the 350-strong lower house. Government sources said they are hoping to attract last-minute “cautious” voters who feel the Socialists have the best chance of forming a majority.

What has really caught PSOE and PP leaders off guard is the fact that the economy, which proved decisive in earlier elections, has barely been mentioned at this week’s televised debates. On Thursday, top officials from Spain’s five main parties held a discussion on Spanish free-to-air television channel La Sexta that went much deeper into the issues than the candidates’ debate on Monday, but did not produce any solutions to the prolonged political stalemate in Spain, which is about to hold its fourth national election in four years.

Analysts have noted that at the Monday debate, neither Pedro Sánchez of the PSOE, Pablo Casado of the PP, Albert Rivera of Ciudadanos, or Pablo Iglesias of the anti-austerity Unidas Podemos made significant efforts to refute the often unfounded claims made by Santiago Abascal of Vox, who appears to have gained the most from his presence at the televised event.

This much seemed evident on Thursday, when Casado and Abascal both held rallies in the eastern region of Valencia. The president of the PP, one of the two parties that have traditionally dominated Spanish politics since the end of Franco’s dictatorship in the late 1970s, managed to attract around 1,200 people, according to event organizers. Abascal, whose party first entered the Spanish Congress in April of this year, drew over 6,000 followers. And surveys show that Vox could outperform the PP on Sunday in several provinces, particularly those along the Mediterranean (...)


Monasterio thamked PP and Cs in last night debate for supporting her initiative in the Madrid Regional Assembly.

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Velasco
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« Reply #1055 on: November 08, 2019, 07:42:31 AM »

The GESOP tracking for El Periòdic d'Andorra is terrible news for Albert Rivera


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Skye
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« Reply #1056 on: November 08, 2019, 07:45:35 AM »

Casado is in town right now. I couldn't get a pic of him, because there is far more ruckus in comparison with Sanchez's rally. Then again, the city centre is far friendlier to the PP than it is with the PSOE. There's also the fact that Casado is from here.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1057 on: November 08, 2019, 07:49:29 AM »

Amazing how much the VOX have surged.  I guess the Catalonia and Franco exhumation issue really played into their strength 
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« Reply #1058 on: November 08, 2019, 10:18:37 AM »

so unless we see a grand coalition, the country is effectively ungovernable?
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« Reply #1059 on: November 08, 2019, 10:49:13 AM »

Amazing how much the VOX have surged.  I guess the Catalonia and Franco exhumation issue really played into their strength  

More the fact the C's failed to commit to any side, and their triangulation was laid bare for all to see. So the Castilian nationalist vote, which was previous a lock for the oranges, is now in Vox's camp. The only difference for these voter groups between the two parties is really that Vox says the quiet part load - go back a few pages and you will see the voter demographics between the two parties are more then correlated.

In fact here's a  little spoiler from my twitter: excusing the C's home base of Catalonia and the far south where  the comparatively minor tenant of Anti-Arab politics play well, the votes are near enough to a perfect correlation. Especially in populated Madrid.

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Velasco
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« Reply #1060 on: November 08, 2019, 10:54:02 AM »

so unless we see a grand coalition, the country is effectively ungovernable?

Sánchez admitted yesterday to a journalist in a TV interview that Spain is in a labyrinth. The PSOE campaign is making a last effort to mobilize the people against Vox, while UP is trying to a appeal socialist voters disappointed with the rightward turn of Sánchez. I am afraid the trick won't work twice. Meanwhile there is great concern in PP and Cs: the Vox rise halts the progression of Casado, while Rivera is in panic. My opinion is that all our leaders are incompetent and should resign immediately (and spin doctor Iván Redondo should go to the stake). The only viable option is a Grand Coalition or a similar garbage under the disguise of a 'Constitutional Pact'.
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Skye
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« Reply #1061 on: November 08, 2019, 03:30:34 PM »

Amazing how much the VOX have surged.  I guess the Catalonia and Franco exhumation issue really played into their strength 

More the fact the C's failed to commit to any side, and their triangulation was laid bare for all to see. So the Castilian nationalist vote, which was previous a lock for the oranges, is now in Vox's camp. The only difference for these voter groups between the two parties is really that Vox says the quiet part load - go back a few pages and you will see the voter demographics between the two parties are more then correlated.

In fact here's a  little spoiler from my twitter: excusing the C's home base of Catalonia and the far south where  the comparatively minor tenant of Anti-Arab politics play well, the votes are near enough to a perfect correlation. Especially in populated Madrid.



Can you explain a little bit what's happening in this map? I don't really get it.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1062 on: November 08, 2019, 04:21:18 PM »

Amazing how much the VOX have surged.  I guess the Catalonia and Franco exhumation issue really played into their strength  

More the fact the C's failed to commit to any side, and their triangulation was laid bare for all to see. So the Castilian nationalist vote, which was previous a lock for the oranges, is now in Vox's camp. The only difference for these voter groups between the two parties is really that Vox says the quiet part load - go back a few pages and you will see the voter demographics between the two parties are more then correlated.

In fact here's a  little spoiler from my twitter: excusing the C's home base of Catalonia and the far south where  the comparatively minor tenant of Anti-Arab politics play well, the votes are near enough to a perfect correlation. Especially in populated Madrid.



Can you explain a little bit what's happening in this map? I don't really get it.

Sure. If Vox and C's votes were perfectly correlated last election, for every C's vote in a province there would be 0.65 Vox votes. In the majority of the nation, there is very little  deviation from this correlation, especially in Madrid where they both won a bunch of votes. Only in the C's heartland of Catalonia, the South Coast/Enclaves where anti-arab politics is an actual thing, and strangely inner Castile-La Mancha, were there significant deviations. The expected perfect correlation holds true because the wealthy middle-aged male who holds centralist views was the base of both parties.

I made this map because there's going to be a lot of takes in a few days on "the next casualty of the  populist surge" when in reality reactionary than populist. These Castilian Nationalist/Centralist voters have always been there, it just took their old vehicle of C's collapsing on all sides for them to migrate to a party that said the quiet part loud.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1063 on: November 08, 2019, 05:48:14 PM »

The correlation map is interesting, but I'm not sure about the interpretation. It's remarkable the Vox strength in Castilla-La Mancha, alongside the Murcia and Almería strongholds. I don't know why the correlation for Vox is stronger in this region with regard to Castilla y León. The Cs base of support is not only the Spanish nationalist vote in central Spain. There are Cs voters that with a young or middle age, urban and professional profile. Probably people with centralist leanings, but also more pro-Europe or 'social liberal' to some degree. The PSOE has been trying to appeal some of these Cs voters, turning to the centre and with a firmer stance towards separatism. Polls suggest such efforts are not being succesful. The Cs centrist base is the most volatile among the Spanish parties and is prone to abstention
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Skye
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« Reply #1064 on: November 09, 2019, 01:41:06 AM »

Interesting explanation, thank you.

Also I suppose there is a chance VOX gets a deputy in my province (Palencia) if they overperform. Though El País doesn't seem to think so: https://elpais.com/especiales/2019/elecciones-generales/escanos-provincias/
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Velasco
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« Reply #1065 on: November 09, 2019, 08:56:28 AM »

Even though it is serious matter and should not happen, I would laugh my ass off a bit if VOX gets more than 16.2% tomorrow ...

Because a couple years ago some from the extreme left were pretty happy that Spain had no far-right party and tomorrow they could get a result which is higher than the FPÖ's in the last election.

Tongue

That's stupid. You don't need to be from the extreme left to be happy about the lack of a far right party in Spain.  I think the pollster that is predicting that Vox will get 15% overestimated the Fraancoist party the last time around. I hope Vox is being overestimated again, but I'm not feeling optimistic. Vox will get an extraordinary result thanks to the riots in the streets of Barcelona. I know that you don't love immigrants and the Vox people is like you in that regard, so it's normal that you are happy about the end of the "Spanish exception"
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1066 on: November 09, 2019, 09:00:35 AM »

Even though it is serious matter and should not happen, I would laugh my ass off a bit if VOX gets more than 16.2% tomorrow ...

Because a couple years ago some from the extreme left were pretty happy that Spain had no far-right party and tomorrow they could get a result which is higher than the FPÖ's in the last election.

Tongue

That's stupid. You don't need to be from the extreme left to be happy about the lack of a far right party in Spain.  I think the pollster that is predicting that Vox will get 15% overestimated the Fraancoist party the last time around. I hope Vox is being overestimated again, but I'm not feeling optimistic. Vox will get an extraordinary result thanks to the riots in the streets of Barcelona. I know that you don't love immigrants and the Vox people is like you in that regard, so it's normal that you are happy about the end of the "Spanish exception"

I think you lack reading comprehension. I posted the exact opposite above.

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"Even though it is serious matter and should not happen ..."
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Velasco
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« Reply #1067 on: November 09, 2019, 09:40:53 AM »

Even though it is serious matter and should not happen, I would laugh my ass off a bit if VOX gets more than 16.2% tomorrow ...

Because a couple years ago some from the extreme left were pretty happy that Spain had no far-right party and tomorrow they could get a result which is higher than the FPÖ's in the last election.

Tongue

That's stupid. You don't need to be from the extreme left to be happy about the lack of a far right party in Spain.  I think the pollster that is predicting that Vox will get 15% overestimated the Fraancoist party the last time around. I hope Vox is being overestimated again, but I'm not feeling optimistic. Vox will get an extraordinary result thanks to the riots in the streets of Barcelona. I know that you don't love immigrants and the Vox people is like you in that regard, so it's normal that you are happy about the end of the "Spanish exception"

I think you lack reading comprehension. I posted the exact opposite above.

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"Even though it is serious matter and should not happen ..."

We know who you are, Tender. It's not the first time that you state your views on the matter
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1068 on: November 09, 2019, 09:47:28 AM »

Even though it is serious matter and should not happen, I would laugh my ass off a bit if VOX gets more than 16.2% tomorrow ...

Because a couple years ago some from the extreme left were pretty happy that Spain had no far-right party and tomorrow they could get a result which is higher than the FPÖ's in the last election.

Tongue

That's stupid. You don't need to be from the extreme left to be happy about the lack of a far right party in Spain.  I think the pollster that is predicting that Vox will get 15% overestimated the Fraancoist party the last time around. I hope Vox is being overestimated again, but I'm not feeling optimistic. Vox will get an extraordinary result thanks to the riots in the streets of Barcelona. I know that you don't love immigrants and the Vox people is like you in that regard, so it's normal that you are happy about the end of the "Spanish exception"

I think you lack reading comprehension. I posted the exact opposite above.

Quote
"Even though it is serious matter and should not happen ..."

We know who you are, Tender. It's not the first time that you state your views on the matter

Yeah, exactly.

Everyone knows that I have a tough position on immigration and integration.

But I have never voted for a far-right party, nor do I want them to get good election results.

In fact, if more people were like me the centrist parties would not decline and rise instead and not the far-right ...
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Velasco
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« Reply #1069 on: November 09, 2019, 10:43:53 AM »


Yeah, exactly.

Everyone knows that I have a tough position on immigration and integration.

But I have never voted for a far-right party, nor do I want them to get good election results.

In fact, if more people were like me the centrist parties would not decline and rise instead and not the far-right ...

I know. You say that you don't vote for the FPO (I have no reason for distrust and anyway that's your business), but your "tough position" on immigration is not far from parties like Vox. What I say is that you have stated in the past a certain joy for the end of the "Spanish exception", as well you deem "far left" people with humanitarian feelings. There is people in the centre and the right that don't hate immigrants: see Angela Merkel. I suspect you would be a good fit for the Albert Rivera fanclub, although I'd challenge the notion that Cs and its Catalan leader are "centrist". In any case, we know your views already
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1070 on: November 09, 2019, 11:39:39 AM »

Yeah, exactly.

Everyone knows that I have a tough position on immigration and integration.

But I have never voted for a far-right party, nor do I want them to get good election results.

In fact, if more people were like me the centrist parties would not decline and rise instead and not the far-right ...

I know. You say that you don't vote for the FPO (I have no reason for distrust and anyway that's your business), but your "tough position" on immigration is not far from parties like Vox. What I say is that you have stated in the past a certain joy for the end of the "Spanish exception", as well you deem "far left" people with humanitarian feelings. There is people in the centre and the right that don't hate immigrants: see Angela Merkel. I suspect you would be a good fit for the Albert Rivera fanclub, although I'd challenge the notion that Cs and its Catalan leader are "centrist". In any case, we know your views already

I have to clarify a few things:

* I have not stated a "certain joy for the end of the Spanish exception", I just said it's going to happen sooner or later that the far-right will also rise by quite a bit there.

* I do not hate immigrants. I have posted several times that I want strict rules enforced, because immigrants have more duties than rights when coming to a country and need to live according to these rules, not commit crimes, or be deported. That has nothing to do with hate. That's what someone would describe as common sense (except for many on the Left). In fact, I favour limited immigration from culture-similar regions of the world.
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« Reply #1071 on: November 09, 2019, 12:28:49 PM »

Speaking of "the Spanish exception", the fact that the far right has now crossed the Pyrinees into Spain (and Portugal, even if they only have 1 MP there) means that Spain is no longer the largest EU country with no far right parties in parliament.

That great honor of no far right representation now apparently belongs to Romania of all countries. Romania also has no far left parties, so I guess they have the healthiest politics in Europe? Tongue

Below Romania though, the list of countries by population drops fast. The country with no far right parties is Ireland (Aontu seems to be just a single issue anti abortion party and not a proper far right one; plus technically no elected MPs). Ireland being already the 19th out of 27 EU countries by population! (and Romania the 6th).

The full list seems to be this:

Romania
Ireland
Croatia
Malta

So only 4 countries left. Sad
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« Reply #1072 on: November 09, 2019, 12:38:15 PM »

well, Croatia has its far-rightists in its supposedly "centre-right" party, which has a problem with Utase defenders, and even Ireland had a pretty good result last Presidential election for an anti-traveller agitator.
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« Reply #1073 on: November 09, 2019, 12:48:00 PM »
« Edited: November 09, 2019, 12:55:39 PM by urutzizu »

And in Romania the "Social Democratic" Party certainly shares more ideologically with Fidesz then with Pedro Sanchez.

Really though, I dont think that Far-right Influence in Parliament is really something new in Spain. What is now VOX was before just the less savoury parts of PP. The Party was quite literally founded by the Censorship Minister of Franco. It just mixed with some of the moderate right and wrapped up its reactionary tendencies in the Christian Democratic Label.
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« Reply #1074 on: November 09, 2019, 12:57:24 PM »

* I have not stated a "certain joy for the end of the Spanish exception", I just said it's going to happen sooner or later that the far-right will also rise by quite a bit there.

The problem with you is that obsession with immigrants and your ignorance of the particular Spanish context. The primary reason for the Vox rise is the crisis in Catalonia. Immigration is an issue in certain parts of Spain (Murcia and Almeria, among others), as well the disintegration of the main party of the Spanish Right due to corruption and other factors. However,  the factor that fuelled the surge of a reactionary form of Spanish nationalism is the Catalan conflict. Particularly its aggravation with the events in Autumn 2017 and their late repercussions. That kind of Spanish nationalism was always there, but it was contained in the radical faction of a mainstream party called PP. The excesses of Catalan separatism have waken up that monster and the spectre of Franco lives again with us.

 But you ignore everything about the politics or the history of our country and come again and again with your single issue...
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