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  Spanish elections and politics II (Basque and Galician elections: April 5, 2020)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (Basque and Galician elections: April 5, 2020)  (Read 84138 times)
Velasco
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« Reply #1250 on: November 11, 2019, 10:26:10 am »
« edited: November 11, 2019, 10:38:50 am by Velasco »

You should be more precise when referring to the Madrid periphery. As Skye says, there is a wealthy periphery located NW of the capital city, while the peripheral suburbs and municipalities located south are working class and lean to the left. An interesting question is to determine whether Vox has managed to make inroads in working class areas.

Santiago Abascal was trying to follow the Salvini's handbook, appealing to the patriotism of the working class with a sentence copied to a leader of the old Falange (something like "the poor cannot afford not having a homeland"). Cs leader Albert Rivera previously used sentences resembling the words of the Falange's founder José Antonio Primo de Rivera (buried in Valle de los Caídos), either intentionally or ignoring their symbolism. "I see neither reds nor blues, I only see Spaniards". Rivera and his allegedly centrist and liberal party have been the biggest fiasco, alongside with the tactical irresponsibility of Pedro Sánchez.  The 'Macronista' alliance between PSOE and Cs had 180 seats in April for only 130 seats in November. Quoting journalist Enric Juliana, Albert Rivera has been the hare of the far right
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #1251 on: November 11, 2019, 10:30:10 am »

I think the big issue for C's is they were borne from the outrage at the craven corruption of Rajot et al, but those scandals are starting to fade away into the past.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1252 on: November 11, 2019, 10:31:42 am »
« Edited: November 11, 2019, 10:35:24 am by Oryxslayer »

Also, I can't wait to for eldiario.es to upload their precincts map. I believe it took them a week for April's election.

They also have some useful maps here:

By blocs (also a swing map): https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-izquierda-resultados-ideologicos-municipio_0_962054275.html

Winners on the right: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/Vox-PP-comunidades-autonomas_0_962054238.html

Performance by party: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-Espana-partido-municipio_0_962054225.html

Disagree with how they lack seperatist or localist blocks but...whatever. Anyway, to round out the group here is El Pais's winner map:

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/10/actualidad/1573410266_570919.html

Most interesting results:



Madrid region. That suburban ring is so noticeable you would think we were in London or the Upper Midwest.



Teruel Existe's winning map. Also contains what I think are the only 2 C's municipalities nationwide.  
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #1253 on: November 11, 2019, 11:22:13 am »

Also, I can't wait to for eldiario.es to upload their precincts map. I believe it took them a week for April's election.

They also have some useful maps here:

By blocs (also a swing map): https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-izquierda-resultados-ideologicos-municipio_0_962054275.html

Winners on the right: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/Vox-PP-comunidades-autonomas_0_962054238.html

Performance by party: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-Espana-partido-municipio_0_962054225.html

Disagree with how they lack seperatist or localist blocks but...whatever. Anyway, to round out the group here is El Pais's winner map:

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/10/actualidad/1573410266_570919.html

Most interesting results:



Madrid region. That suburban ring is so noticeable you would think we were in London or the Upper Midwest.



Teruel Existe's winning map. Also contains what I think are the only 2 C's municipalities nationwide. 

Regarding these 2 maps:

The Madrid map ring of suburbs for Vox is actually more ex-urban in character, extending well into Castille-La Mancha. That area also has seen relatively high population growth I think.

Madrid's closer (and larger) suburbs are the very affluent western suburbs (Las Rozas, Majadahonda, etc) which went to PP and the old and relatively working class "red belt" (Getafe, Rivas-Vaciamadrid, etc), which went to PSOE.

Also Teruel Existe's map is hilarious to me in that they won the province by winning big in the provincial capital of Teruel. Most of actually rural Teruel did not vote for them. Teruel town is not a large town by any means (35 000 inhabitants) but considering TE's platform it is funny how rural Teruel did not vote for them, while "urban" Teruel did. (though in the 2nd and 3rd largest towns in the province, the only 2 others above 5000 people, they did not do particularly well)
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afleitch
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« Reply #1254 on: November 11, 2019, 01:01:13 pm »

What's with Vox on the coast? Non Spanish nationals?
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« Reply #1255 on: November 11, 2019, 01:22:59 pm »

Did Vox manage to win some traditional working class areas that normally go to PSOE like Trump, Le Pen, Salvini, etc.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1256 on: November 11, 2019, 01:30:11 pm »

Did Vox manage to win some traditional working class areas that normally go to PSOE like Trump, Le Pen, Salvini, etc.

Someone with better knowledge of this can enumerate more, but Vox is a different flavor then those guys. Vox is more reactionary and hearkening back to a 'glorious past' during the francoist regime, whereas those guys are arguing to build something something new. They are approaching a problem and say "we need new ideas" Vox looks at a problem and says "we need old ideas." It's been mentioned before that migration is a minor tenant on Vox's platform, the Falagist stuff, Castilian Nationalism, Centralism, and anti-Catalan rhetoric moves more voters. This all leads to Vox's (originally C's) voters being more wealthy, either Sub/Exurban or living in the exclusive Old City core, Middle-Aged, and Male, according to demographic surveys and previous exit polls. The only part of that list which is shared with the 'WWC' stereotype is Male.
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Skye
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« Reply #1257 on: November 11, 2019, 01:52:47 pm »

So, El Norte de Castilla has posted precinct maps for some Castillian provinces. Thing is, my hometown of Palencia saw very little change, other than the PP regaining ground and an improvement of the PSOE, and since VOX just barely improved from their April performance, the map has very few variations. The PP once again won resoundingly in the city centre, while the PSOE performed well in the more working class areas. Tale as old as time, I guess.

If anyone wants to check them: https://www.elnortedecastilla.es/elecciones/generales/consulta-votado-ciudad-20191111141632-nt.html

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« Reply #1258 on: November 11, 2019, 03:27:21 pm »

It's beautiful to see c's in ruins. Most evil party in Spain.
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Skye
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« Reply #1259 on: November 11, 2019, 03:41:25 pm »

Sorry for the double post, but eldiario.es has uploaded the national precinct map! Check it out: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/votaron-resultados-elecciones-generales-calle_0_962404599.html

Some Madrid pics:

Madrid City centre: Podemos wins Lavapiés again.


The wealthy Salamanca and Chamartín districts: Strongholds of the right.


The orange belt is gone: The PP wins in the northern PAUs of Madrid (Las Tablas, Sanchinarro, Montecarmelo, Valdebebas), where C's had one of their strongest performances in the past election.


La Moraleja: One of the (if not the?) wealthiest neighborhoods in Spain. Left who?


The wealthy suburbs to the northwest of Madrid: These are the urban municipalities where the right performs the best in the Community of Madrid. One of these, Pozuelo de Alarcón, is the wealthiest in Spain.


The red belt: These are the working class municipalities to the south of Madrid that Velasco mentioned. The left does well in these.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1260 on: November 11, 2019, 04:10:53 pm »
« Edited: November 11, 2019, 04:15:35 pm by Velasco »

I think the big issue for C's is they were borne from the outrage at the craven corruption of Rajot et al, but those scandals are starting to fade away into the past.

Cs lost credibility as champion against corruption when Rivera decided to support the PP in Madrid, Castilla y León and Murcia. All these regions have been in the PP hands for decades with numerous corruption scandals. While the oranges had the pretext of the ERE scandals to oust socialists from the Andalusian government with the help of the far right, it's very difficult to explain the deals with PP and Vox in the other regions. The Rivera's sectarianism against the left and his departure from the centre were at the expense of one of the Cs founding banners: the "democratic regeneration" (i.e cleanliness and fight against corruption). Obviously time plays in favour of the PP as people begins to forget...
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Velasco
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« Reply #1261 on: November 11, 2019, 04:27:02 pm »
« Edited: November 11, 2019, 04:31:51 pm by Velasco »

Sorry for the double post, but eldiario.es has uploaded the national precinct map! Check it out:

Wonderful news!

My precinct: PSOE 30.9, PP 22.1, UP 19.8, VOX 10.9, NC-CC 5.3, Cs 4.6

Turnout 60 (down 9)

I suspect that I mixed up my precinct with a neighbouring and more left leaning one in previous interactive maps. I checked the income map by precinct and mine is just on the national average.
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Worried Italian Progressive
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« Reply #1262 on: November 11, 2019, 04:41:25 pm »

It's very interesting how income is a significant predictor of left/right vote, even when accounting for Vox - the La Moraleja result is just startling...
Here in Italy for instance wealthy neighbourhoods in big cities have gone hard towards PD in the last year.


What's up with Teruel Existe instead? When was it founded? What's its platform? Which gov't would it support?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1263 on: November 11, 2019, 04:56:11 pm »
« Edited: November 11, 2019, 04:59:55 pm by Oryxslayer »

It's very interesting how income is a significant predictor of left/right vote, even when accounting for Vox - the La Moraleja result is just startling...
Here in Italy for instance wealthy neighbourhoods in big cities have gone hard towards PD in the last year.


What's up with Teruel Existe instead? When was it founded? What's its platform? Which gov't would it support?

Income/class tends to be the superior indicator of partisan lines in those countries with a 'recent' authoritarian past. Those who are wealthy got their wealth during the regime and are more likely to have some fond memories or at least rose-tinted glasses in regards to it's failings. If you were not wealthy or successful during the regime, you look back on it's failings much harsher, and gravitate towards those who carry on the tradition of the opposition from those years. Its a trend in Latin America as well, regardless of which 'pole' the regime leaned towards. This is a simplistic  explanation why Madrid is a Right stronghold despite this decades global trend that has seen the youth increasingly urbanize and dominate cities, Madrid boomed during Franco's years.
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Skye
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« Reply #1264 on: November 11, 2019, 05:09:11 pm »

Its a trend in Latin America as well, regardless of which 'pole' the regime leaned towards.

Well, in Venezuela it isn't exactly due to that. Our last authoritarian regime lasted from 1952 to 1958, and the relevance that it may hold today is debatable (there are certainly some nostalgic for the era, but not nearly on Franco's level). Our voting patterns are probably more due to the fact that chavismo's main pillar is to fuel class warfare as much as possible lol.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1265 on: November 11, 2019, 11:49:55 pm »
« Edited: November 11, 2019, 11:53:11 pm by Velasco »

What's up with Teruel Existe instead? When was it founded? What's its platform? Which gov't would it support?

Teruel Existe (TE) is a citizens' platform founded 20 years ago to defend the interests of Teruel province, that is afflicted by depopulation and lack of infrastructures. It's the first time that TE contests an election. The "forgotten province" is part of the so-called "Emptied Spain" and many of its inhabitants have migrated the neighbouring Zaragoza and Valencia. Deputy elect Tomás Guitarte is an architect and says that he's neither leftwing nor rightwing, although back in 1987 and 1991 he ran as local candidate for the centre-left regionalist Aragonese Union (CHA). Guitarte will sponsor legislative measures in favour of his province and the Emptied Spain. TE also won two seats in the Senate that could be decisive, given that the PSOE lost its majority in the Upper Chamber. I guess that Guitarte will be a politician in the fashion of the PRC leader Miguel Ángel Revilla, the regionalist premier of Cantabria
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #1266 on: November 12, 2019, 06:52:58 am »

Also, since we live in the same town, here are the results from my precinct, for an interesting comparison with Velasco's precinct:

Turnout: 69% (-4)

PSOE: 24% (+2)
PP: 24% (+6)
Vox: 18% (+8)
UP: 16% (-2)
CC: 7% (+3)
Cs: 5% (-15 !)
MP: 2% (+2)

So it seems in terms of right vs left basically nothing moved (if anything a tiny swing to the left), with Cs support going evenly to PP and Vox for some reason. Beyond that, Canarian regionalists win from basically everyone and not much change.

My precinct is a suburban middle class precinct quite far from the city center and with a rather rural "tone" to it (it feels more rural than areas that are even further away from the city).
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Skye
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« Reply #1267 on: November 12, 2019, 07:50:45 am »

Sánchez and Iglesias have a "pre-agreement" to form a coalition government. *Insert clown emoji here*

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/12/actualidad/1573561378_089352.html

Question is, do they have the votes?

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« Reply #1268 on: November 12, 2019, 08:02:14 am »

Sánchez and Iglesias have a "pre-agreement" to form a coalition government. *Insert clown emoji here*

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/12/actualidad/1573561378_089352.html

Question is, do they have the votes?



Haha. They should both be resigning from politics, not leading the country.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1269 on: November 12, 2019, 08:23:16 am »

Sánchez and Iglesias have a "pre-agreement" to form a coalition government. *Insert clown emoji here*

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/12/actualidad/1573561378_089352.html

Question is, do they have the votes?



THEN WHAT WAS THE POINT OF THIS ELECTION?!?
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jaichind
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« Reply #1270 on: November 12, 2019, 08:36:50 am »

Sánchez and Iglesias have a "pre-agreement" to form a coalition government. *Insert clown emoji here*

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/12/actualidad/1573561378_089352.html

Question is, do they have the votes?



THEN WHAT WAS THE POINT OF THIS ELECTION?!?

To take PSOE-C off the table.  Having less choices clarifies the mind.   Research has shown that people are leas happy when their 401K gives them too many mutual funds to choose from.
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Skye
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« Reply #1271 on: November 12, 2019, 08:38:26 am »

Sánchez and Iglesias have a "pre-agreement" to form a coalition government. *Insert clown emoji here*

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/12/actualidad/1573561378_089352.html

Question is, do they have the votes?



THEN WHAT WAS THE POINT OF THIS ELECTION?!?

*Clown emoji intensifies*
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Velasco
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« Reply #1272 on: November 12, 2019, 10:01:03 am »
« Edited: November 12, 2019, 10:29:02 am by Velasco »

Preliminary deal between PSOE and UP (English version)

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/11/12/inenglish/1573562718_041862.html

Quote
Caretaker Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and the leader of left-wing Unidas Podemos, Pablo Iglesias, have signed a preliminary agreement to form a coalition government after Sunday’s inconclusive repeat general election in Spain. Despite months of negotiations between the parties to strike a governing deal following the April poll, the two leaders have done this deal less than 48 hours after Sunday’s vote (...)  

Sánchez and Iglesias have a "pre-agreement" to form a coalition government. *Insert clown emoji here*

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/12/actualidad/1573561378_089352.html

Question is, do they have the votes?



THEN WHAT WAS THE POINT OF THIS ELECTION?!?

They have no other choice but making a virtue of need.

But yes: what was the point of this strategic fiasco, Mr Sánchez?

It won't be easy, but the deal will have the numbers to pass the investiture in a second vote. ERC spokesman Gabriel Rufián said on election night that they won't block the formation of a progressive government. On paper, ERC is willing to abstain. However, the situation in Catalonia is  very turbulent and the pragmatic ERC leadership faces pressure from the Puigdemont group (JxCAT) and the far left (CUP).
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #1273 on: November 12, 2019, 11:33:00 am »

What is CUP's relationship with Podemos? Any far left solidarity, or are they literally never going to compromise?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1274 on: November 12, 2019, 11:48:03 am »

If Podemos and PSOE actually have a deal then it still needs one of the following to at minimum abstain:

-PP
-C's
-Catalan Parties
-Mutually incompatible parties like NA+, CCa, and El Bildu

PSOE+Podemos+Mas+EAJ/PNV+BNQ+TE!+PRC+El Bildu = 173

Which you know wouldn't be a problem if we had this deal last time -_-
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