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September 16, 2019, 01:54:03 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

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  Spanish elections and politics II (countdown for elections, deadline on Sept 23) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (countdown for elections, deadline on Sept 23)  (Read 43395 times)
FredLindq
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Posts: 392
« on: April 28, 2019, 04:31:08 am »

This is interesting (according to me).
In the 2015 elections the left (PSOE, IU and Podemos later om UP) got 161 seats and in 2016 they got 156 seats and Electopanel predicts that the will get 162 this time. Left regionalist parties (ERC, EHB and Compromis) got 11 seats in 2015, 11 in 2016 and 19 this time (Compromis is standing alone this time). The left in total got 172 seats in 2015, 167 in 2016 and is predicted to get 171 this time. Not much change in three elections!

The right (PP and C's and this time Vox and NS) got 166 seats in 2015, 163 in 2016 and is predicted to get 169. Not much change.

Centreright regionalist parties (JPC earlier DEL and CDC, PNV and CC) got 15 seats in 2015, 14 in 2016 and is predicted to get 11 this time. Not much change there either.
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FredLindq
Sr. Member
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Posts: 392
« Reply #1 on: April 29, 2019, 01:11:45 am »

Why has Catalonia and Paus Vasco became so left-wing?!
Och
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FredLindq
Sr. Member
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Posts: 392
« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2019, 05:12:59 am »

So voters that lived under Franco’s rule actually vote conservative in much higher proportion than other voters?!



I'm not sure that income is no longer a factor in the UK, although I suspect patterns in Canada are quite different. Age is a major factor in Spain. PP is by far the largest party in the age group above 60, while it's only the fourth party in the age group between 18 and 24. Podemos is the preferred party or performs strongly among those voters below 35, Cs is stronger in the 35-44 group and PSOE in the 45-54. Regarding the level of education. it's often correlated to income

I know they're probably here somewhere; but have you got breakdowns by party by age somewhere?

Curious to see how PSOE and Vox did by age group.

No, but the data and crosstabs must be available in the CIS post-election survey released in May. The graph below shows the distribution of party vote by age group, according to the CIS. The most remarkable thing is that about a half oh PP voters are older than 65. Vox is more successful among voters aged between 35 and 54, with a peak in the 35-44 segment. Regarding the leftwing vote, the graph shows that Podemos has a strong base among the youngsters and the PSOE vote grows with age.



Some findings on the party vote and interactive graphs

http://www.rtve.es/noticias/20190430/datos-hablan-radiografia-del-voto-voto-grupos-sociales/1930141.shtml

1) The PP vote is stronger in municipalities with higher proportion of retirees

2) The PSOE vote tends to be stronger in municipalities with higher unemployment rate, as well in the municipalities with higher proportion of people with primary education or without education

3) There is a positive correlation between income and the vote for Cs and Vox, but not with the PP. The vote for Cs and Vox drops sharply in the older segments that overwhelmingly vote for PP.

4) The vote for UP is stronger in municipalities with a higher proportion of urban land. The level of education is positively correlated to the vote for UP (but not income).

5) The vote for Vox is stronger in younger populations and among males. Vox performs better in high income municipalities and in those with a higher proportion of foreign nationals registered. Regarding to the latter, I'd say that it's true for the Vox strongholds in Almería or Murcia (El Ejido, Torre Pacheco), but the neighbourhoods in the main cities where Vox gets better results are usually the most affluent and not the places where immigrants use to live.


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