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  Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez: July 22-25) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez: July 22-25)  (Read 32927 times)
yeah_93
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Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« on: February 14, 2019, 02:21:01 pm »



That's tomorrow. I'm excited.
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yeah_93
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Posts: 3,048
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Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2019, 01:16:56 pm »



So, there's this poll. The left is getting trounced in Madrid, though that's not really new anyway.

I was meaning to ask, what are the best pollsters in Spain? What pollsters should I turn a blind eye to?
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yeah_93
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Posts: 3,048
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Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2019, 08:16:15 am »

Electomania.es apparently will be publishing vote estimations all weekdays for all elections that will happen. (so mondays for the general election, tuesdays for the EU elections, etc)

These are not proper polls, but estimations based off an online panel. So you shoud treat them with caution.

http://electomania.es/ep4m/#idc-cover

Also, apparently premier Ximo Puig (PSOE) of the Valencian Community will call a snap regional election for the day of the general election (28th of April), probably trying to capitalize on the PSOE surge nationally.

https://www.lasprovincias.es/politica/puig-convoca-consell-adelanto-electoral-comunitat-valenciana-20190304090807-nt.html

Ironically, Puig was originally against a "super sunday" yet he will now call for one lol

If confirmed, there would be several firsts:

-First regional election to happen the same day as a general election since Andalucia 2008

-First snap regional election in a "non historic" autonomous community (ie not Andalucia/Catalonia/Basque Country/Galicia) since Asturias 2012

-First snap regional election that won't get a regular election when the original election term is over (wouldn't even make sense in this case)

Over the last 15 years, several autonomous communities passed new autonomy statutes giving themselves more powers, among those the power to call snap regional elections and not be confined to holding them alongside the local elections. However, the Valencian Community will be the first to exercise this power.

I'm currently rating the Valencian regional elections as lean PP. Puig is an underdog, but he is not overly disadvantaged.

I find this electopanel super interesting. I'll be constantly checking it.
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yeah_93
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Posts: 3,048
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2019, 01:09:18 pm »

PP: 68
C's: 60
VOX: 56
PSOE: 48
Unidos Podemos: 32

Can't vote anyway, so...
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yeah_93
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Posts: 3,048
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« Reply #4 on: April 26, 2019, 04:36:02 am »

This is an extraordinary map of the 2016 results by precinct or census section

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/04/17/actualidad/1555522788_557334.html

Results in my precict were UP 33%, PP 28%, PSOE 23%, Cs 11%


Thank you so much for this!

Mi precinct looked like this:

PP 33
PSOE 32
UP 25
C's 11

It seems mine is the only blue precinct of the small barrio where I live. PSOE won the rest, even though the rest of the city is painted in blue.
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yeah_93
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*****
Posts: 3,048
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« Reply #5 on: April 27, 2019, 04:57:07 am »

VOX leader Santi Abascal reminds me of a Spanish version of Salvini in Italy, which means VOX should perform really well tomorrow.

I think Santiago Abascal has little in common with Matteo Salvini, leaving aside that both are far right demagogues and have a beard. One of the main differences between Vox and other far right parties like Lega in Italy is the lack of a charismatic link between the party leader and his voters. In the case of Spain the Vox trademark is stronger than Abascal.



Welp.
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yeah_93
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Posts: 3,048
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« Reply #6 on: April 27, 2019, 05:20:50 am »

They belong to the same political family and it's obvious that Salvini supports Abascal and not Sánchez. What proves and what's the point in embedding tweets like that?

Since you had just stated that they aren't similar and Salvini tweeted an endorsement? Didn't Salvini use to advocate for the separatists in the past? I dunno, I don't think I really "get" Europe's politics yet.
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yeah_93
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Posts: 3,048
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2019, 11:59:04 am »

One question. These will be the first Spanish elections I'll follow live and with a general idea of what's happening. Any suggestions on which news sites to check out, which accounts should I follow on twitter, and the sort?
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yeah_93
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*****
Posts: 3,048
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« Reply #8 on: April 28, 2019, 01:55:15 pm »

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox

Melila goes PP

Extramadura
5 PSOE
2 PP
2 Vox
1 C's

Galicia
9-10 PSOE
8 PP
2-3 Podemos
2 C's
1Vox



I have no clue what is happening in Castle and Leon, which is Spain's Catholic and right wing heartland. Madrid also looks surprisingly poor for Vox, where they were expected to do quote well.

Also, as I expected, the Catalonian turnout surge did end up helping the Socialists perhaps more than anyone else in the region.

What do you mean? The right seems to be doing fine in Castile and Leon.
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yeah_93
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Posts: 3,048
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« Reply #9 on: April 28, 2019, 03:02:56 pm »

I dunno, but these results seem pretty bad for the PP.
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yeah_93
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Posts: 3,048
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« Reply #10 on: April 30, 2019, 05:11:23 am »

I think Casado did as well as the PP could have done. Now if they have a result like that at the next election in a couple years time, that's a different story.

How? They did incredibly poor and it wasn't exactly because VOX overperformed. These are terrible results for them.
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yeah_93
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Posts: 3,048
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Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2019, 08:12:28 am »

A couple of maps made by myself

Leading party by province (majority). Circles are municipalities with more than 100000 inhabitants.


Largest bloc by province (majority).


Bloc results:

Left (PSOE, UP, ECP, Compromís) 43.65%

Right (PP, Cs, VOX, NA+) 43.23%

Catalan nationalists (ERC, JxCAT, FR) 6.23%

Basque nationalists (EAJ-PNV, EH Bildu, GBai) 2.58%

I was compiling these results myself, and I'd like to know where would we put some minor regional parties. Gbai, PRC, En Marea, BNG? Like, where do they fit?
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yeah_93
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Posts: 3,048
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« Reply #12 on: May 26, 2019, 05:07:10 pm »

It seems Carmena has lost.
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yeah_93
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,048
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« Reply #13 on: June 19, 2019, 09:41:52 am »

In a fun turn of events, C's got their candidate elected as mayor in my city (Palencia), thanks to some wacky negotiations with the PP in order for the right to retain the Presidency of Castile and Leon. This, despite the fact that C's only got 12% of the vote in the election and only 3 councilors (out of 25). Man, this country's politics never cease to amaze me.
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yeah_93
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,048
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« Reply #14 on: July 02, 2019, 09:16:06 am »

Even if Sánchez gets a bigger number in a hypothetical snap election (say, 30-35% of the vote), won't that be for naught if the PSOE doesn't get a majority of the seats? It'd be like what's going on right now.
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yeah_93
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*****
Posts: 3,048
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« Reply #15 on: July 03, 2019, 06:17:49 am »
« Edited: July 03, 2019, 06:22:06 am by yeah_93 »

So... there's a new CIS poll and the results are as follows:

PSOE: 39.5
C's: 15.8
PP: 13.7
Podemos: 12.7
VOX: 5.1
ERC: 3.9

In other words:

PSOE+UP: 52.2
C's+PP+VOX: 34.6

http://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3252marMT_A.pdf

EDIT: April election results:

PSOE+UP: 43
C's+PP+VOX: 42.8

Big swing to the left if true. Though isn't CIS a bit too friendly to the left?
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yeah_93
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Posts: 3,048
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« Reply #16 on: July 07, 2019, 05:24:20 am »

Yesterday there was a disgusting insult exchange between Vox and Cs via Twitter

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/04/inenglish/1562233109_074015.html

Ah yes, I saw the tweet. Charming party. Classy.
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yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,048
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« Reply #17 on: July 07, 2019, 09:41:08 am »

Yesterday there was a disgusting insult exchange between Vox and Cs via Twitter

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/04/inenglish/1562233109_074015.html

Ah yes, I saw the tweet. Charming party. Classy.
I mean, it's not that insulting. Honestly I understand Vox is pissed.

The Vox people has reasons to feel pissed at Cs hypocrisy, but the vulgar language of that tweet  is characteristic of bullies.

Cs annoys everybody, on the other hand. Yesterday a Cs delegation led by Inés Arrimadas was escorted out the Gay Pride parade in Madrid. The presence of Cs members provoked protests. There was a performance of people dressed in the Handmaid's Tale fashion (with orange robes) and a sit-in that caused a 1 1/2 delay in the parade. Some angry people screamed and insulted the Cs people and the oranges replied. The organizers said they called the police to prevent serious incidents and luckily nobody was injured. Obviously he motivation of protests is that Cs is making deals with Vox, a party that is openly against the LGTB movement. It's like Cs people was living in a parallel reality: oranges claim they make no deals with Vox, but they can't get their share of power without the far right. Politics is about making choices and oranges refuse to clarify their position. They want the Vox support without staining their hands in an open negotiation. Likewise they want to attend a gay parade as an organization, while they are dealing with a homophobic party through the back door. Nobody believes them because they are not credible.

Funny you say that since I'm seeing Errejón tweeting about the issue criticizing the C's. He was openly an admirer of Hugo Chávez, and chavismo is a notoriously anti-LGBT movement.
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yeah_93
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Posts: 3,048
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« Reply #18 on: July 11, 2019, 03:04:49 am »

Looks like a game of chicken between Podemos and PSOE seeing who will blink first.  Podemos is likely to lose seats so PSOE feels they have the upper hand, but an early election could precipitate a backlash and may not work in PSOE favour.
Also Enric Juliana (IMO the best political journalist in Spain) wrote that in case of a new election PP and Cs would establish alliances similars to the one in Navarra (Navarra Suma) in smaller provinces. That alone is enough to avoid a new election.

I don't think PP and Cs will establish an alliance. Cs is (unsuccessfully) trying to replace PP as the main party of the Spanish centre-right. Making an alliance would go against that objective.


I mean, not if you treat it as a long term goal instead of something that must be achieved immediately. They already fell to the PP this year, and (correct me if I'm wrong) it doesn't really look like they are poised to beat them in a hypothetical election.
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yeah_93
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Posts: 3,048
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

« Reply #19 on: Today at 02:05:51 pm »

The way I see it, granting Iglesias far more power than he deserves would be far too risky for Sánchez, so he's willing to bet for another election where this:

Imagine if we got a 2nd election and PSOE held steady at 28% while UP went down to something like 10%.

happens, or something like PSOE 33-UP 10, which wouldn't be as far fetched since PSOE is polling really well ATM. Of course that's super risky as well because the right could theoretically rebound to its late 2018 polls where the PP-C's-Vox vote was getting dangerously close to 50%.
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