Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[DavidB.]

Vox 71%
PP 68%
Cs 52%
PSOE 47%
EAJ-PNV 40%
PDeCat 37%
ERC 33%
UP 30%
EH Bildu 22%

Clearly most aligned with Vox and PP. Differences: Vox is more economically right-wing and more opposed to decentralization/autonomy for separatists than I am (I don't think rolling back already existing types of decentralization will be conducive in any way), which is no surprise. On the other hand I'm apparently even more pro-law and order than them.

[DavidB.]

I'm crossing fingers and preparing myself

Same. Going to shul now, on this special occasion I will be praying for Vox and the right 🙏🏻

[DavidB.]

Guess PSOE will win some more anti-right voters causing UP to lose some more. Also think Vox is being underpolled again. The right should hope turnout will remain low and left-wingers are lulled into sleep thinking the right won't reach a majority due to Sanchez' strong campaign, but the sheer gap between PSOE and PP means PSOE will get a really beneficial vote-seat ratio. I think the right will either win a razor-thin majority or will be extremely close to having one.

PSOE 28%, PP 19%, Cs 16%, Vox 14%, UP 10%.

[DavidB.]

Is that Vox slogan "España Viva" viewed as a dog whistle to the slogan in the Franco era (the one starting with "España una") or does it not have that connotation?

[DavidB.]

PSOE-C would require a huge 180 on behalf of Rivera. Which he could do because he's done it before, but after his present campaign it would be even more difficult. And he himself seems much more of a right-winger than he liked to admit, though he's showing more of his true colors now.

I think Rivera has made a strategic mistake by aligning himself to the right to such an extent, which weakens both the combined right and C's by causing PSOE-C swing voters who don't necessarily appreciate PP (let alone Vox) to move to the PSOE. Might as well just shut up about your coalition preferences, win more votes, join a right-wing coalition (or even lead it), and have these voters leave you for PSOE afterwards while you're in government anyway.

[DavidB.]

And from what I have read, it will crash and burn pretty hard, as VOX has a very successful outreach campaign on the ground and will end up with 15-20%.

Not impossible (and from your lips to God's ears), but sounds way too high and would certainly require a massive polling error. Placing my bets on 12-14% territory.

[DavidB.]

Or let's not and stay focused on the election. Will we get one last emojipanel today?

[DavidB.]

Okay, as someone who is rather out of touch on Spanish politics, I have a question regarding the ERC and a PSOE government.  Would the ERC demand a government sponsored referendum for Independence in exchange for supporting the government?  Or do they have a different price? 

Also, what progress have any of the other regionalists/nationalists, particularly Basque ones, made this election?

If any of our Spanish posters could give us a brief overview of all regionalists that are expected to win seats ("ERC: left-wing, Catalan nationalist, could/could not support PSOE" etc) that would be much appreciated as well. It's very unclear to me. Are there any that could provide support to a right-wing government?

[DavidB.]

Many thanks!

[DavidB.]

My updated prediction:

[DavidB.]

That would leave a massive 13% for „other“ parties.

Who would get that ?

PACMA and the regionalists. But it's going to be off either way, given the polling blackout, the bad polls in the first place, and the uncertain debate effects. I'm just guessing the right will slightly outperform the polls and be around 175 (not sure on which side...).

[DavidB.]

Election day poll for the Valencian regional election. Unlike the general election ones, this one is VERY different from the earlier polls, so be ready for surprises

In which direction?

[DavidB.]

From what we have now, it seems as if right-wing voters moved further right (and the right-wing parties all moved right) but moderate voters opted for the PSOE after all, with left-wing UP/PSOE swing voters coming home for UP after Sanchez' debate failure.

If (big if) this is accurate, C's are probably to blame for losing the election for the right by being way too open about how nationalist and right-wing they actually are. They shouldn't even be competing for voters with PP so much, they should also be competing with PSOE and then take their seats to the right.

[DavidB.]

If (big if) this is accurate, C's are probably to blame for losing the election for the right by being way too open about how nationalist and right-wing they actually are. They shouldn't even be competing for voters with PP so much, they should also be competing with PSOE and then take their seats to the right.

True, but it is hard to compete with PSOE for centrist voters when Cs govern with Vox in Andalucia and seem to want to govern with Vox nationally.

Yes, so they should have distanced themselves more from that impression.

[DavidB.]

Wonder what this means for Casado.

[DavidB.]

Votedump seems disproportionately from Basque Country.

[DavidB.]

PP-Cs-Vox seem to lose seats compared to PP-Cs in 2016 in almost all regions. It's going to be PSOE-UP with support from regionalists.

PP forgot that most votes are to be won in the center, not on the fringes

Exactly, and so did C's.

[DavidB.]

Europe should be more like Spain imo

Saving this for the day PP-Cs-Vox is formed

Hahaha, will still happen! Just a bit of delay

[DavidB.]

29.6% in

PSOE 29.8% - 132
PP 16.8% - 65
Cs 14% - 51
UP 12% - 33
Vox 9.4% - 23

[DavidB.]

5th seat in Huelva remains incredibly close between UP and Vox and has been all evening.

[DavidB.]

Question to our Spanish posters: do people vote tactically, i.e. they know their party (e.g. Vox) can't realistically lay claim to one of the three seats in their region so they vote for a bigger party in their bloc (e.g. PP)?

[DavidB.]

With 79% in Ceuta in, it seems the right-wing vote is so split between PP and Vox that PSOE may actually gain the seat from PP. Perfect illustration of this election.

[DavidB.]

Abascal talking about Reconquista is his victory speech...

Hey, I've seen that movie before!

[DavidB.]

Would PSOE even want to govern with Cs, or do they prefer UP and the regionalists? Would be kind of a trip for all these former PP voters that voted Cs this time, LOL.

[DavidB.]

CpM still ahead in Melilla with 77% in. I think this one will be gone for the PP too. Vox shouldn't have run here.