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  Spanish elections and politics II (investiture failed, countdown for elections) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (investiture failed, countdown for elections)  (Read 38959 times)
Mike88
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« on: February 17, 2019, 12:24:40 pm »

Hmm... It seems that there's some kind of trend towards PSOE and PP. PSOE numbers are going up because, probably, of the implosion of Podemos and PP seems to be gaining some voters from C's. Sociométrica poll is the only, of the 3 released yesterday, that shows PP and C's tied for second place.

Could that photo of Rivera next to Abascal be hurting C's? Maybe some C's moderate voters didn't liked what they saw and are now returning to PP, and some, who knows, to PSOE.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1 on: February 17, 2019, 02:28:19 pm »

Hmm... It seems that there's some kind of trend towards PSOE and PP. PSOE numbers are going up because, probably, of the implosion of Podemos and PP seems to be gaining some voters from C's. Sociométrica poll is the only, of the 3 released yesterday, that shows PP and C's tied for second place.

Could that photo of Rivera next to Abascal be hurting C's? Maybe some C's moderate voters didn't liked what they saw and are now returning to PP, and some, who knows, to PSOE.

There is an extreme volatility with sudden turns in public opinion, so we should be cautious with analyses and intetpretations. I think the only prediction that we can support right now is that PSOE, Cs and of course VOX eill get better results, while PP and UP are bound to lose support. In the case of Cs, I think that the picture in Colon Square and the government deal in Andalusia, which undeniably associate the oranges with the far right, are potentially harmful. At least the PSOE will try to take advantage of these develooments to recover ground in the centre. The talks policy damaged PSOE in previous months (additionally the crisis in Catalonia exacerbates division within the party), as well the bad cpmmunication policy: the Calvo's blunder with the "mediator" was the origin of the political storm that ended in the Colon Square rally, a failed sttempt of the Spanish Right to bring Sánchez down with a massive demonstration. The attendance was around 50k, a clear underperformance. In addition the picture of the Triple Alliance gives ammunition to the PSOE. Some people say the failure of the Colon Square rally and that picture determined Pedro Sánchez and his inner circle to call elections in April. I think your assumption that moderate Cs voters may turn to PP over that picture doesn't make much sense, because Pablo Cssado is a hardcore consrrvative with stances close to VOX. The Santiago Abascal party was the only winner in Colón Square. On the ither hand, VOX is growing mainly at the expense of PP but also at the expense of Cs. The result of VOX within the right wing block may determine if the Triple Alliance wins a majority or not
Interesting. When i say moderate C's voters coming back to PP, I mean former PP voters that were a bit turned off by the corruption scandals and all, and now are coming back to PP because C's seems to be just like PP. But, you're right, that maybe doesn't makes sense.
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Mike88
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« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2019, 12:49:12 pm »

The PP/C's seem, like Michael, to be losing moderate/centrist voters to PSOE. Of course, PSOE is benefiting with the implosion of Podemos, while the rightwing turn of PP and C's isn't also benefiting them because, i say, people prefer the original, Vox, than those who try to copy it, and might i say, very badly.

I think PP would be doing a much better under Soraya Saenz Santamaria than with Casado. She would attract moderate voters that, now, seem to be fleeing from C's to PSOE. But i would like to hear Tack's, Velasco's or Michael's opinion.
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Mike88
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« Reply #3 on: April 14, 2019, 10:47:46 am »

I think it's pretty clear, as of now, that PSOE will win with around the same % PP got in 2016, 33%. It will be interesting to see what happens in PP/C's after the elections, and if the results are what polls predict. Will Casado be kicked out of the PP leadership and Soraya makes a comeback? And C's? Will they eat their words and form an agreement with PSOE, or will there be a "refoundation" of the Spanish right like in the late 80's with a merge of PP and C's, if that's even possible.

Also, curiously, and for now, the Spanish elections are receiving almost zero coverage from the Portuguese media. Interesting, but that may change in the next few days, i assume.
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Mike88
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« Reply #4 on: April 14, 2019, 11:16:28 am »

Sondaxe poll for Voz de Galicia newspaper:

32.9% PP, 10 seats (-2)
29.7% PSOE, 10 (+4)
11.5% C's, 1 (+1)
10.9% UP, 2 (-3)
  4.9% Vox, 0
  4.4% BNG, 0
  2.4% En Marea, 0
  3.3% Others

If PP loses Galicia... Yikes.
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Mike88
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« Reply #5 on: April 22, 2019, 04:46:26 pm »

Good showing from Rivera, it seems. Pablo Iglesias not bad, Sanchéz average and total car crash for Pablo Casado.
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Mike88
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« Reply #6 on: April 27, 2019, 10:54:03 am »

A very critical factor will be turnout. Spain always had high turnout rates, but, the unpopularity of the main parties, plus the fact that all seem quite bad, could mean that turnout could fall to the lowest rate ever. This will heavily impact the balance between the left and right blocs.
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Mike88
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« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2019, 11:16:59 am »
« Edited: April 27, 2019, 11:33:01 am by Mike88 »

A very critical factor will be turnout. Spain always had high turnout rates, but, the unpopularity of the main parties, plus the fact that all seem quite bad, could mean that turnout could fall to the lowest rate ever. This will heavily impact the balance between the left and right blocs.

These kind of things are hard to gauge. But there are also things suggesting higher turnout this time. 2016 was so soon after the previous election, so there might have been some fatigue. Also, I think we have seen elsewhere a turnout boost when anti-immigration parties surge in the polls as they tend to attract many previous non-voters. Also the polarizing climate between the right-wing parties and independence movements might motivate more persons to go vote.
On the other hand, I guess Podemos' downturn could be partly due to their voters sitting out. Disappointed with the party's disunity, and lack of ability to affect real change?
It's just my hunch, of course, and you're right that there also also things that could make turnout increase on both sides. But, look what happened in Andalusia last year. Turnout was only 56%, with a huge depressed PSOE electorate and a unprecedented surge of Vox voters coming from the two main parties.

My view is that the majority of undecided voters are centrist/center-right voters who don't know what to do. They don't like Sanchéz, feel that the PP has become desperate, that C's is flip floping on many things and Vox, well, could be just unacceptable. They may just stay home. This time around, low turnout could benefit the left. We'll see.

Nonetheless, the level of uncertainty, drama and fear is unprecedented in Spanish politics.
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Mike88
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« Reply #8 on: April 28, 2019, 07:16:18 am »

It seems that my fears about turnout were a bit too pessimistic... (until now)

At 14:00h, turnout is up 4% from 2016 and reaches 41.4%
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Mike88
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« Reply #9 on: April 28, 2019, 12:44:36 pm »


I don't think so. Only polls done during the last few days. That's what i recall Tack saying.

According to RTVE, 27 million people cast a ballot. A record number.

I was really off regarding turnout... Yikes.
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Mike88
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« Reply #10 on: April 28, 2019, 01:03:19 pm »

According to the polls, no bloc has anything close to a majority.
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Mike88
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« Reply #11 on: April 28, 2019, 01:17:41 pm »

How long till the results start to come through? I'm not sure if I can bear another late night watching early hope turn into crushing despair... Smiley

In the next minutes, i think results will start coming in. By 22:00h, the overall image will be clear.
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Mike88
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« Reply #12 on: April 28, 2019, 01:19:30 pm »

I was watching the "exit polls" on Spanish RTE TV, but was not sure if those were exit polls or something conducted over the previous days ?

Does anyone know if these are proper exit polls done today, or in the last days ?

No exit polls. They are all tracking poll from the last few days.
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Mike88
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« Reply #13 on: April 28, 2019, 01:27:41 pm »

PP has lost Galicia for the first time ever, according to the polls.
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Mike88
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« Reply #14 on: April 28, 2019, 02:02:31 pm »

4.2% in:

28.4% PSOE
19.0% PP
10.8% C's
11.5% UP
  7.9% Vox
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Mike88
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« Reply #15 on: April 28, 2019, 02:24:14 pm »

Almost 15% in and the left has 164 to the right's 135.

Vox is getting embarrassed.

And PP!! The margin between them and C's is narrowing, and UP is less than 2% behind them.
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Mike88
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« Reply #16 on: April 28, 2019, 02:33:25 pm »

PP is falling every time the count is updated. Normally they rise as the vote is counted. I wouldn't be surprised if PP falls to 4th place in terms of votes.
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Mike88
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« Reply #17 on: April 28, 2019, 02:52:26 pm »

There is a tight race for 2nd place. The difference between PP, C's and UP is just bellow 2.7%.
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Mike88
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« Reply #18 on: April 28, 2019, 04:59:49 pm »

The 3 main leaders speaking at the same time...
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Mike88
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« Reply #19 on: April 28, 2019, 05:16:33 pm »


Well, it's still very unlikely but, Sanchéz did said in his speech that he will not do "sanitary cord" in Parliament. What does this means? We'll see.
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Mike88
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« Reply #20 on: April 28, 2019, 06:02:58 pm »

I don't understand why Casado didn't resign tonight. 16.7% is a Titanic mode result. If he continues until the Municipal and EP election in May, who knows how low the PP results will be.
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