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June 20, 2019, 12:47:44 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

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  Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez)  (Read 28491 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« on: April 16, 2019, 02:37:12 pm »

My preliminary estimate is that VOX should get 13.5 to 15% in the election.

Also: it seems as if VOX will not appear in any debate because of their 0.2% or something they received in the 2016 election and therefore no seats in parliament.

Spanish election law article 66.2 says that only parties getting more than 5% in the last election can take part in debates and I guess this also applies to private TV channels ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2019, 12:25:35 am »

A new poll has VOX with more than 14% support.

The way this is going (like in Finland), they will get 14-17% ... up from 0.2% in 2016.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #2 on: April 27, 2019, 12:40:12 am »

VOX leader Santi Abascal reminds me of a Spanish version of Salvini in Italy, which means VOX should perform really well tomorrow.

My prediction therefore is as followed:

27.3% PSOE (+4.7%)
20.6% PP (-12.4%)
17.1% VOX (+16.9%)
14.2% Cs (+1.1%)
13.5% UP (-7.7%)
  7.3% Others

51.9% Right (+5.6%)
40.8% Left (-3.0%)

Turnout: 70.4% (+3.9%) - this is based on all eligible voters incl. Spanish voters abroad
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #3 on: April 27, 2019, 10:42:09 am »

Anyway, the myth that Spain is immune to far-right populist parties will crash and burn tomorrow.

And from what I have read, it will crash and burn pretty hard, as VOX has a very successful outreach campaign on the ground and will end up with 15-20%.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #4 on: April 27, 2019, 10:53:43 am »

And from what I have read, it will crash and burn pretty hard, as VOX has a very successful outreach campaign on the ground and will end up with 15-20%.
Not impossible (and from your lips to God's ears), but sounds way too high and would certainly require a massive polling error. Placing my bets on 12-14% territory.

It seems you are taking the more conservative approach in guesstimating the result, while I take the more realistic one. Years of massive unemployment, dissatisfaction with life and misery among a very large group of Spanish voters, imported crime and immigration from Africa and the Middle East (tolerated by the Socialist PM) and their likelihood to support fast rising startup parties like Cs and Podemos in the past suggest that there could be some massive polling error tomorrow and that voters are not telling pollsters their true intentions.

But I don't know much about Spain and what is true in other countries may not be true there, so my prediction could also be completely nuts.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #5 on: April 27, 2019, 11:22:22 am »

And from what I have read, it will crash and burn pretty hard, as VOX has a very successful outreach campaign on the ground and will end up with 15-20%.
Not impossible (and from your lips to God's ears), but sounds way too high and would certainly require a massive polling error. Placing my bets on 12-14% territory.

It seems you are taking the more conservative approach in guesstimating the result, while I take the more realistic one. Years of massive unemployment, dissatisfaction with life and misery among a very large group of Spanish voters, imported crime and immigration from Africa and the Middle East (tolerated by the Socialist PM) and their likelihood to support fast rising startup parties like Cs and Podemos in the past suggest that there could be some massive polling error tomorrow and that voters are not telling pollsters their true intentions.

But I don't know much about Spain and what is true in other countries may not be true there, so my prediction could also be completely nuts.

I understand your joy and happiness with the Vox surge in Spain, since you share a similar eorldview. However this post shows your deep ignorance of Spanish politics, as you admit in the last paragraph. I will have to ask you to read something before you post here. I would never dare to poke my nose into the Austrian thread without a mimimum knowledge of issues, or at least a minimun interest to understand the reality of the country. Please, go away with your Breitbart and your Tweeter

A) I can post my 1 or 2 cents on any topic or issue and on any thread I want, even in the Spanish election thread.

B) I do share some points with VOX on immigration, for sure. But I also oppose many other of their positions such as the abortion ban, the dissolution of the Spanish regions or their hostility to the media and press freedom. Just because I share their common-sense view on immigration, it doesn't make me a Breitbarterer or a supporter of VOX as you falsely claim.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #6 on: April 27, 2019, 11:39:44 am »

You can post your two cents as long as you are respectful. That post of yours is not respectful and is plenty of inaccuracies. I think it's obvious that you share the same worldviews of the far right. Opinion is free. Trolling, falsehood and disrespect are not. I think uou don't have an actual interest in Spain and there are plenty threads where uou can share your hatred of immigrants. Please, Tender, go.

Please explain this further. I would like to see what exactly you mean by these accusations ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2019, 03:18:21 pm »

That would leave a massive 13% for „other“ parties.

Who would get that ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #8 on: April 28, 2019, 12:19:14 am »

It seems as if this is going to be the official results page from the Interior Ministry:

https://www.resultados.eleccionesgenerales19.es/Inicio/es

El Pais:

https://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/generales.html

El Mundo:

https://www.elmundo.es/elecciones/elecciones-generales/resultados
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #9 on: April 28, 2019, 01:05:46 am »

It seems as if this is going to be the official results page from the Interior Ministry:

https://www.resultados.eleccionesgenerales19.es/Inicio/es

El Pais:

https://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/generales.html

El Mundo:

https://www.elmundo.es/elecciones/elecciones-generales/resultados

Polls are now open.

A first measurement of turnout will come at 14:00 local time.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #10 on: April 28, 2019, 02:19:16 am »

36.9 million people are eligible to vote today, of which 34.8 million are in Spain and 2.1 million are Spanish citizens abroad.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #11 on: April 28, 2019, 03:46:53 am »

The voting weather is great today, sunny and up to 30°C in the South and a bit cooler in the North:

Img
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #12 on: April 28, 2019, 03:51:01 am »
« Edited: April 28, 2019, 03:55:44 am by Tender Branson »

Only 1 out of 60.038 precincts is not up and running yet.

https://www.resultados.eleccionesgenerales19.es/Avances/Total-nacional/0/es

Update (10:54):

Now all 60.038 precincts are up and running.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #13 on: April 28, 2019, 09:23:49 am »

The strong rise in turnout should be good news for VOX, as a lot of previously disappointed people seem to be coming into the fold now with that additional choice for them.

On the other hand, urban people will turn out against them - which might keep them "under control". I think my 17% for VOX should come pretty close to the actual results later during the night.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #14 on: April 28, 2019, 09:45:10 am »

I wouldn't dare to predict anything, because my crystal ball is not sending clear signs to me. It seems the Steve Bannon's oracle is talking through a medium from Austria. Everything is possible, but it seems clear that it's imposible to avert intoxication

Roll Eyes

Once again, you demonstrate your lack of understanding about Spanish politics. Rural areas do not lean uniformity to the conservatives/centralists, and urban areas do not lean uniformly to the left. The rural south also has much more voters then the rural north, making both geographic 'regions' parities on the national level. Vox is likely to get a 'good' score in Madrid for instance. The only place turnout is truly surging compared to the nation is in Catalonia, which is rightly afraid of the centralists/federalist debate that has dominated this campaign.

VOX has only received 0.2% last time, so it is hard to tell where their strongholds are now that they could get ~15% today.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #15 on: April 28, 2019, 12:13:35 pm »

Seems like turnout will be somewhere around 2008 levels (74%), which is quite high for what we are used to in the last decade. Unfortunately, beating 2004 (76%) seems unlikely; let alone 1996 (77%) or 1982 (80%)

Well, 80% seems possible if there's no dropoff in the final 2 hours of voting. At least turnout Spain-wide (excl. Spains living abroad). Turnout incl. Spains abroad will be 2% lower than in mainland Spain.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #16 on: April 28, 2019, 01:18:23 pm »

I was watching the "exit polls" on Spanish RTE TV, but was not sure if those were exit polls or something conducted over the previous days ?

Does anyone know if these are proper exit polls done today, or in the last days ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #17 on: April 28, 2019, 01:20:53 pm »

Hmm, let's wait for the actual vote count then ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #18 on: April 28, 2019, 01:39:00 pm »

anyone have a link to results?

I posted them earlier today (first results should come in ca. 20 minutes):

It seems as if this is going to be the official results page from the Interior Ministry:

https://www.resultados.eleccionesgenerales19.es/Inicio/es

El Pais:

https://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/generales.html

El Mundo:

https://www.elmundo.es/elecciones/elecciones-generales/resultados
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #19 on: April 28, 2019, 01:59:13 pm »

Time for the votes to come in !

I guess ~28 million votes were cast, or ca. 76% turnout (+9%).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #20 on: April 28, 2019, 02:10:14 pm »

It looks as if the "exit polls" were mostly correct.

I don't see VOX overperforming the polls based on these early numbers and they will likely end up with ca. 10-12% in the end.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #21 on: April 28, 2019, 02:16:11 pm »

I just realized that I made a major mistake with my prediction for VOX at 16-17% Spain-wide ...

VOX is virtually non-existant in the population-rich Catalunya and the Basque country, which is dragging down their national share of course. VOX would have needed 20% in the rest of Spain, if they are non-existant in these regions.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,077
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
« Reply #22 on: April 28, 2019, 02:39:55 pm »

The way this vote count is progressing, VOX will end up with ca. 11.5% to 12.0% and in a tight race for 4th place with Podemos.

PP is now almost cut in half.
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