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February 28, 2020, 05:10:20 am
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  Spanish elections and politics II (Basque and Galician elections: April 5, 2020) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (Basque and Galician elections: April 5, 2020)  (Read 85422 times)
El Betico
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Posts: 34
Spain


« on: October 21, 2019, 06:15:59 pm »

I'm worried. Without the Catalans and the pro-ETA Basques I don't think there will be a left-wing majority...still, I don't want a Spanish version of Grosse Koalition...in other words, I don't expect next election to be resolutive.
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El Betico
Rookie
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Posts: 34
Spain


« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2019, 07:24:44 pm »

Spain, CIS poll:

PSOE-S&D: 32% (+3)
PP-EPP: 18% (+1)
UP-LEFT: 15% (+1)
Cs-RE: 11% (-4)
VOX-ECR: 8% (-2)
ERC-G/EFA: 4%
MP-LEFT|G/EFA: 3% (+2)
JxCat-NI: 2%
PNV-RE: 2%
...

+/- vs. April election

Fieldwork: 21/09-13/10/2019
Sample size: 17,650
europeelects.eu/spain

Dream


Spain, SyM Consulting poll:

PSOE-S&D: 27% (-2)
PP-EPP: 22% (+5)
VOX-ECR: 14% (+4)
Cs-RE: 10% (-6)
UP-LEFT: 10% (-4)
ERC-G/EFA: 4%
MP-LEFT|G/EFA: 3% (+2)

+/- vs. April 2019 election

Fieldwork: 26-27 October 2019
Sample size: 1,923
europeelects.eu/spain

Nightmare
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El Betico
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Posts: 34
Spain


« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2019, 05:22:35 pm »

I'm going to vote Errejon. Tactical move.
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El Betico
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Posts: 34
Spain


« Reply #3 on: November 10, 2019, 05:30:09 pm »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 06:05:12 pm by El Betico »

If the CpM lead in Melilla, now at 200, holds...

...PSOE+UP+MP+PRC+BNG+Teruel+CpM+PNV+Bildu+Canarians: 176

A majority without relying on Catalans in this scenario, exists...can we imagine the Basques on the train with a Yes vote as an anti-Vox measure?
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El Betico
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Posts: 34
Spain


« Reply #4 on: November 10, 2019, 05:50:25 pm »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 06:04:21 pm by El Betico »

If the CpM lead in Melilla, now at 200, holds...

...PSOE+UP+MP+PRC+BNG+Teruel+CpM+PNV+Bildu: 176

A majority without relying on Catalans in this scenario, exists...can we imagine the Basques on the train with a Yes vote as an anti-Vox measure?

This govt, well this govt with less individual actors, was also an option back in April, it was technically the govt Sanchez and Podemos were  negotiating for. But there were problems with Bildu, and of course Podemos vs PSOE was an issue.

Yes, but I have a bit of hope based on changing circumstances...not retaining the 176 without ERC was my fear, almost a certainty...if CpM holds, I was wrong, and I will have a (for now) small sense of relief.
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El Betico
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Posts: 34
Spain


« Reply #5 on: November 10, 2019, 06:50:03 pm »

PP by 179 in Melilla.

No possible majorities without relying on ERC( except for a Grand Coalition, obviously).
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