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  Spanish elections and politics II (countdown for elections, deadline on Sept 23) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (countdown for elections, deadline on Sept 23)  (Read 43693 times)
jeron
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 454
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« on: April 03, 2019, 12:32:36 pm »

PSOE 68%
C 66%
UP 55%
PP 43%
Vox 34%
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jeron
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 454
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2019, 01:10:19 pm »

IMOP-Cadena COPE election day poll



Keep in mind that these are not proper exit polls, but polls done during the campaign blackout period and published today. However the last 2 such polls were mostly accurate

That is because of the electoral system

Those MOE's are huge O_o
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jeron
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 454
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2019, 01:13:16 pm »

LEFT: 158--166
RIGHT: 153-160
PSOE-C's: 164-170

*Prays for third option*



The third option is probably the best, but unfortuantely it has been excluded by Ciudadanos.
If this is the actual result a PSOE/Podemos coalition with support of regional parties seems most likely
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jeron
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 454
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2019, 01:27:38 pm »

Excluding the Catalan separatist parties, wouldn't the smaller regionalist ones be more likely to support the left leaning bloc than right leaning?  Looks like it will be a mess and possibly another election later this year although I think smaller parties would be more likely to support left than right.  Right pretty much has to hit 176 or get very close to realistically govern.  And if they do hit that, do they have Popular Party or Citizens lead the way.  I would think Citizens would have a better chance of working with smaller parties than Popular Party.

Likewise if PSOE + Citizens have majority is there any chance Citizens will reverse their cordon sanitaire as there will probably a lot of pressure including from the EU for the two to work together since both are the most pro-EU.

The only proper regionalist parties that will apparently make it will be CC and UPN

UPN contested the election alongside PP and Cs as Navarra Suma so I doubt it.

CC hates Podemos so it's also very unlikely, though slightly less likely. CC is a Marxist party in the Groucho sense: "these are our principles, if you don't like them, we have others"; and they did abstain on Sánchez's confidence vote.

However I would not count on them
But CC-C's-PSOE is reasonably likely, no?

No, Cs has repeatedly excluded a coalition with PSOE!
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jeron
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 454
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2019, 01:37:43 pm »

Excluding the Catalan separatist parties, wouldn't the smaller regionalist ones be more likely to support the left leaning bloc than right leaning?  Looks like it will be a mess and possibly another election later this year although I think smaller parties would be more likely to support left than right.  Right pretty much has to hit 176 or get very close to realistically govern.  And if they do hit that, do they have Popular Party or Citizens lead the way.  I would think Citizens would have a better chance of working with smaller parties than Popular Party.

Likewise if PSOE + Citizens have majority is there any chance Citizens will reverse their cordon sanitaire as there will probably a lot of pressure including from the EU for the two to work together since both are the most pro-EU.

The only proper regionalist parties that will apparently make it will be CC and UPN

UPN contested the election alongside PP and Cs as Navarra Suma so I doubt it.

CC hates Podemos so it's also very unlikely, though slightly less likely. CC is a Marxist party in the Groucho sense: "these are our principles, if you don't like them, we have others"; and they did abstain on Sánchez's confidence vote.

However I would not count on them

Well, Compromis would suppport PSOE/Podemos of course but they only have one seat in this poll. And PNV (Basque nationalists) supported the PSOE government as well
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jeron
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 454
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2019, 01:44:30 pm »



If (big if) this is accurate, C's are probably to blame for losing the election for the right by being way too open about how nationalist and right-wing they actually are. They shouldn't even be competing for voters with PP so much, they should also be competing with PSOE and then take their seats to the right.

True, but it is hard to compete with PSOE for centrist voters when Cs govern with Vox in Andalucia and seem to want to govern with Vox nationally.
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jeron
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 454
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #6 on: April 28, 2019, 01:52:31 pm »

The big catch from the Gad3 seat projection has to be Galicia. Left block has more seats there then Right.

That would be disastrous for PP
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jeron
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 454
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #7 on: April 28, 2019, 02:14:30 pm »

Votedump seems disproportionately from Basque Country.

Indeed. With PNV at 7% and Bildu at 4.5% that's pretty much a given. The Basque Country is pretty fast at counting votes

Basque country has already counted one third of the vote
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jeron
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 454
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #8 on: April 28, 2019, 02:17:55 pm »

Vox with a whopping one seat in Almeria right now.

And PSOE in the lead in Ceuta
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jeron
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 454
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #9 on: April 28, 2019, 02:26:05 pm »

With 10.56% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.53%
PP       17.42%
C        12.18%
UP       11.90%
VOX      8.59%

So so far we're looking at an overperformance for the Socialists and underperformance for the far-right.

Yes, good results for PSOE in Andalucia and Extremadura
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jeron
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 454
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #10 on: April 28, 2019, 02:27:28 pm »

Almost 15% in and the left has 164 to the right's 135.

Vox is getting embarrassed.

And PP!! The margin between them and C's is narrowing...

PP was getting embarrassed the moment they chose Casado. Vox was at least expected to do better.

PP forgot that most votes are to be won in the center, not on the fringes
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jeron
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 454
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #11 on: April 28, 2019, 02:40:09 pm »

Guys, you need to add "ECP- Guanyem el canvi" to UP total, it is its catalonian branch

Exactly, Podemos now on 39
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jeron
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 454
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

« Reply #12 on: April 28, 2019, 05:39:58 pm »

Also RIP the Spanish right in Catalonia and the Basque Country.

Currently PP-Cs-Vox are at 7 seats in Catalonia (down from 11); with 5 of those 7 going to Cs. More importantly they are at 0 in the Basque Country (down from 2).


Well. That is hardly a surprise after what happened in 2017 and I am sure the right wing ‘Colon cooperation didnt go well either.
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