Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 19, 2019, 03:09:09 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Socialist Mod Stands with ProudWhatsHisName)
  Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez: July 22-25) (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez: July 22-25)  (Read 33491 times)
rob in cal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,745
« on: February 12, 2019, 04:54:12 pm »

  So no plans to consolidate the vote with European elections in May?
Logged
rob in cal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,745
« Reply #1 on: February 17, 2019, 07:27:51 pm »

  So what is the vote % crossover point for a party running throughout the country like Vox to win a seat share approximate to its vote share. Looks like right now its 8.8% in the last poll gets it about 4.5 % of the seats. This wastage alone might be enough to deny the PP, C, and Vox a majority.
Logged
rob in cal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,745
« Reply #2 on: April 10, 2019, 01:05:28 am »

  So in some of the 3 and 4 seat districts it would make sense for Vox and UP voters to vote tactically for either the PP or PSOE, if they want to help the bigger party closer to them on the ideology scale and when their party has a low chance to win one of the seats. Has tactical voting like this occured in recent Spanish elections?
Logged
rob in cal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,745
« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2019, 10:50:20 am »

  Any sense of what  the combined seat total of PSOE plus UP would be for a viable Sanchez government?
Logged
rob in cal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,745
« Reply #4 on: April 27, 2019, 01:55:16 pm »

Ok, so whats the seat target figure for combined right wing parties that gets Casado in as PM?  Somewhere in the low 170's?
Logged
rob in cal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,745
« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2019, 10:11:47 am »

  I do buy into the idea of previous non-voters who lean strongly to the right being more likely to vote this time around with Vox being a viable choice, whereas in previous elections PP was the only viable choice.  So in theory a greater % of the vote going overall to right wing parties just because of this.
  
Logged
rob in cal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,745
« Reply #6 on: April 28, 2019, 04:00:30 pm »

  One the one hand in a more proportional system the blocs would be equal, but in that case it would still be  a PSOE government due to the regionalists.
Logged
rob in cal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,745
« Reply #7 on: April 29, 2019, 03:59:12 pm »

Too lazy to find this, but what places with more than say 15000 inhabitants had the biggest right wing and biggest left wing majorities, outside of the Catalonia and Basque regions.
Logged
rob in cal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,745
« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2019, 11:10:43 am »

  Its amazing to see the urban vote, especially broken down by district. In the cities, aside from Barcelona and Bilboa, there are so few areas that we see in other western democracies where the parties of the left absolutely dominate, crush the opposition. Instead, they win a lot of districts just getting 55% or less of the vote.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC