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  Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez: July 22-25) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez: July 22-25)  (Read 33039 times)
mileslunn
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« on: April 26, 2019, 02:00:15 am »



Not sure if I'm the only one who's asked this, but... is there something resembling a possibility that shy Vox voters actually make it the largest party on the Right?


What are PSOE and Podemos at in the screenshot?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2019, 01:11:25 pm »

Excluding the Catalan separatist parties, wouldn't the smaller regionalist ones be more likely to support the left leaning bloc than right leaning?  Looks like it will be a mess and possibly another election later this year although I think smaller parties would be more likely to support left than right.  Right pretty much has to hit 176 or get very close to realistically govern.  And if they do hit that, do they have Popular Party or Citizens lead the way.  I would think Citizens would have a better chance of working with smaller parties than Popular Party.

Likewise if PSOE + Citizens have majority is there any chance Citizens will reverse their cordon sanitaire as there will probably a lot of pressure including from the EU for the two to work together since both are the most pro-EU.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2019, 01:15:09 pm »

LEFT: 158--166
RIGHT: 153-160
PSOE-C's: 164-170

*Prays for third option*



The third option is probably the best, but unfortuantely it has been excluded by Ciudadanos.
If this is the actualiteit  a PSOE/Podemos coalition with support of regional parties seems most likely

If left forms I believe that will be good news for minimum wage workers as they promise a 22% hike.  Terrible though if you make over 150,000 Euros as your taxes will go up.  In fact my understanding is for those making over 300,000 Euros, if PSOE + Podemos tax plan goes through, top marginal rates will be over 50% in 2/3 of Spain (sort of like what we have now in Canada for good or ill, and this tax hike wildly popular with most but hated by rich and economist mixed on idea).
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mileslunn
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« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2019, 01:48:46 pm »

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox


Results in Madrid seem big deal for left as usually it votes right.  Ceuta going Vox is no surprise and I suspect they will win Melilla too.  That is ground zero for illegal immigration so makes a lot of sense.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2019, 02:00:18 pm »

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox


Results in Madrid seem big deal for left as usually it votes right.  Ceuta going Vox is no surprise and I suspect they will win Melilla too.  That is ground zero for illegal immigration so makes a lot of sense.

Can someone explain why two cities in Africa are enthusiastic supporters of the party that is campaigning against Africans? It seems that if Africans creep you out maybe, you know, Africa is not the best place to live.

Most living there are Spaniards not Africans and they have a real problem with illegal immigration.  Since these are the only two enclaves in mainland Africa that are part of the EU and there are no internal border controls in mainland Europe once you get into those if not caught you can go anywhere in Europe.  They get far more illegal immigration than elsewhere in Spain.  Same reason why some of the strongest supporters of tough on illegal immigration in US live right along the Mexican border.  You see it more so more of an issue than those further away where it impacts their lives less.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2019, 02:06:22 pm »

4.2% in:

28.4% PSOE
19.0% PP
10.8% C's
11.5% UP
  7.9% Vox

What part of the country are these from?  It seems PSOE and PP getting about what polls suggested, but other three especially Vox way under.  Off course depending on what part of the country these are from may not be representative at all.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #6 on: April 28, 2019, 02:16:22 pm »

I noticed only 325 seats are given, are the other 25 having no results is that why?  For left I show 156 so 20 seats shy, while right is 135 which is 41 seats shy so won't both of those numbers go up as those shows a lot in neither group?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #7 on: April 28, 2019, 02:27:24 pm »

Almost 15% in and the left has 164 to the right's 135.

Vox is getting embarrassed.

Actually not totally surprised, polls almost always mess up on the far right, either they outperform big time or underperform big time.  Usually when there is a real threat of them forming government they underperform while when not over.  Examples of underperforming are France 2017, Netherlands 2017, Austria 2017, and Sweden 2018 while overperformance are Germany 2017, UK 2015, Italy 2018, Finland 2019, Norway 2017.  I think the threat of them holding balance of power might have led to some last minute pullback.  A lot who vote far right do so more as a protest vote to send a message to the elites and establishment.  Otherwise they don't actually want them to win, they just hope a strong showing will force government to change direction.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #8 on: April 28, 2019, 02:29:42 pm »

Almost 15% in and the left has 164 to the right's 135.

Vox is getting embarrassed.

And PP!! The margin between them and C's is narrowing...

PP was getting embarrassed the moment they chose Casado. Vox was at least expected to do better.

PP forgot that most votes are to be won in the center, not on the fringes

Is that true anymore.  A lot have been saying centre is hollowing out as we are seeing greater polarization.  I know Spain is very different than US, but certainly in US at least and also some other European countries there is the idea you win by appealing to your base.  Many have claimed social democrats crashing in most of Europe is due to Third way and that Corbyn despite losing but doing much better than most social democratic parties in Europe is proof you don't win through the centre.  BTW I still think elections are won in the centre, but there are a lot of talking heads out there that claim the centre is gone and you win by appealing to base so maybe they listened to those.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #9 on: April 28, 2019, 02:31:41 pm »

Just reminding you Guys that madrid sits at 6.26%. There is a lot still up in the air, so lets not bank everything on Basque County and Aragon.

True although Madrid seems to be swinging quite a bit to the left so far.  Off course it depends what part the votes are coming from.  I am guessing the city centre is fairly left wing while suburbs and surrounding rural areas are more right wing, at least that is the trend in most parts of the world.  If Madrid swings heavily to the left would not be surprised, urban/rural divides seem to be growing everyone with traditional left wing rural areas swinging rightwards while traditional right wing urban areas swinging leftwards.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #10 on: April 28, 2019, 03:03:07 pm »

PSOE + C's coalition would be feasible but C's have ruled this out so I wonder if they regret doing this?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #11 on: April 28, 2019, 06:57:58 pm »

This is dumb. PSOE+C's is obviously the best possible outcome for Spain, but dumb C's leadership is stopping it. At least Vox flopped.

Cs is are barely better than Vox. They've been pushing extremely far right over the last few years and aren't really a standard "liberal" party anymore.

What does it take for a party to get expelled from the ALDE?

In European parliament majority vote by parties represented.  I believe there are attempts to expel Fidesz from EPP so can be done.  ALDE though does include several centre-right parties and some like Venestre in Denmark or Centre Party in Finland have included far right parties in their coalitions so doubt it will happen.  Unlike North America, liberalism in Europe is more the classical type so most ALDE parties would be more comparable to the BC Liberals than federal Liberals.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #12 on: April 29, 2019, 03:16:31 pm »

What are the chances of him being able to pass the same budget.  My understanding is if all the parties voted the same way as earlier this year it would be 171 so 5 seats short, but of the two new parties, Cantabria Party and Compromis, those are both centre-left so would probably vote in favour so 173.  Will Sanchez have to tweak it or are there the additional votes to win.  I am guessing the minimum wage hike is fairly popular.  Not sure how popular taxing the banks or taxing the rich more is.  I know it is very popular in some countries, but less so in others so where does Spain stand.  Are a lot upset about income inequality thus want the rich to pay more or is there a fear higher taxes on the rich will just cause them to move to other countries?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #13 on: May 18, 2019, 07:55:36 am »

So what is likelihood budget passes and if so any major revisions or just a few bones to regionalist parties?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #14 on: May 21, 2019, 09:58:31 am »

What are chances of another election?  Or is it likely PSOE will likely form a coalition.  Also in terms of budget priorities as budget was by recent European standards fairly left leaning how likely is it that things like 22% rise in minimum wage, tax on banks, higher income taxes on those making over 150,000 Euros likely to go through?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #15 on: July 10, 2019, 05:04:34 pm »

Looks like a game of chicken between Podemos and PSOE seeing who will blink first.  Podemos is likely to lose seats so PSOE feels they have the upper hand, but an early election could precipitate a backlash and may not work in PSOE favour.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #16 on: July 12, 2019, 11:32:54 am »

Pedro Sánchez wants constitutional changes to prevent deadlocks. Differences between PSOE and UP remain.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/11/inenglish/1562859165_143284.html

Quote
Following another failed meeting on Tuesday between Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias, head of the leftist Unidas Podemos group, the acting PM said he would call Iglesias on Thursday to try to kick-start “stalled” negotiations. While Sánchez considers Iglesias his natural ally, he refuses the latter’s demand for a coalition government.

“A government needs absolute internal cohesion, and on matters of state there are deep discrepancies with Unidos Podemos,” said Sánchez on the morning talk show Los Desayunos de TVE.

One of these differences is over the crisis in Catalonia. “They talk about political prisoners and the PSOE does not, we say there are politicians in prison. It is evident that there are deep differences and discrepancies that could paralyze a joint government with Unidas Podemos due to internal contradictions. My responsibility is not just to guarantee the investiture, but the stability of government as well,” said Sánchez, who is facing a congressional vote in two weeks to get officially back into the prime minister’s office. So far, he lacks enough support to be successful.

Podemos has already offered to accept in writing any conditions set out by the PSOE in connection with the handling of the Catalan crisis. But the response by a Socialist leader at party headquarters on Monday was that “people also sign mortgages, and later don’t pay.”

Rather than a coalition government, the acting PM is suggesting that Unidas Podemos could propose independent candidates to hold some cabinet positions. “Honestly, to me it seems like the most sensible and generous offer in the current situation,” he said.

Sánchez offered Iglesias to appoint Podemos ministers with a "technical profile", but not members of the party leadership. The Podemos leader rejected the offer saying he doesn't accept vetoes.

Regarding the deadlocks in Madrid and Murcia, Cs prefers new elections to open the way of deals with socialists. Oranges are also unwilling to make further concessions to Vox, either signing three-way agreements or modifications in the deals already signed with the PP. They simply expect that Vox compromises.

The best way to solve this would be to switch to FTFP or AV as then you would have majority governments, but that seems unlikely.  But like Italy and Greece, any talk of bonus seats for largest party as that would help increase the odds of a majority while still retaining some proportionality.
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