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November 19, 2019, 03:24:35 pm
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  Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)  (Read 64119 times)
TheDeadFlagBlues
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Mexico


« on: April 27, 2019, 12:10:37 pm »

Considering that there were two back-to-back debates during the polling blackout, the likelihood that the polls fail in disastrous fashion seems pretty likely. I think that the most plausible scenario would be an eyepopping Podemos overperformance, which wouldn't be difficult to accomplish. In the end though, there's a lot of uncertainty. No "side" has reason to feel very confident because we're all in the dark.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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Posts: 4,870
Mexico


« Reply #1 on: April 27, 2019, 02:27:39 pm »

Not sure if these internal polls from PSOE and Podemos have been posted yet:

PSOE internal poll: PSOE 30-31%, PP 15-17%, Vox 13-16%, C's ?, Podemos ?
Podemos internal poll: PSOE 30%, Podemos 15%, PP 15%, C's 15%, Vox 15%

My read of these polls is that, on the one hand, there's every reason to believe that it's in the interests of both PSOE and Podemos to show a Vox surge in order to mobilize their base. It's noteworthy that both polls appear to be very similar, of course, but both parties have similar interests. Simultaneously, the debates were a trainwreck for PP and, frankly, for the C's as well, with both Rivera and, especially, Casado coming off as feuding clowns incapable of governing.
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