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September 21, 2019, 04:22:34 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

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  Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (General Elections on November 10)  (Read 45628 times)
seb_pard
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« on: April 03, 2019, 11:52:50 am »

UP 76%
EH Bildu 74%
ERC 73%
PSOE 71%
PDeCAT 65%
EAJ-PNV 62%
Cs 48%
PP 28%
Vox 21%
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seb_pard
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« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2019, 08:42:12 pm »

Honestly, I thinks is very hard to understand the stability of Compromís, I mean, the coalition covers a broad range of movements with different views on Valencian identity (well, not blaverism), from strong Valencianism to people who want to establish the Catalan Countries. I think it is great, but also is weird in a country like Spain, where the left tends to implode and ends divided.

Also I think the Valencian Community (or Pais Valencia) is the place (with Murcia) where Cs and Vox can do really well. Both are communities with historically strong provincial PPs that governed alone for many years but now are with notorious signs of exhaustion (the case of PP in Valencia is really crazy). Right wing people in those communities now have real options. I think Cs can also exploit the language card in Valencia with some success.
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seb_pard
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« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2019, 04:15:32 pm »

I believe that Malasaña is the best neighborhood in the whole world. Good to know how people vote there, although it seemed obvious when I stayed there. I remember that the first flag I saw was a republican one.

On a side note, I know Vallecas has a left-wing reputation, but is amazing the numbers from the neighborhood, you have the two parties from the left of center performing well there. One precinct has UP over 50% and PSOE over 20%. Nevertheless, Salamanca offsets those results haha.

Also, the results from Salamanca and Valladolid are very interesting (from my point of view). Those cities are known for being very right wing, but the PP performed really well in the respective downtowns. It should be interesting to see how this would move on sunday (I think Cs and Vox could perform well there).
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seb_pard
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« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2019, 04:28:18 pm »

Also, here's how my precinct looks like. This is particularly interesting as I live in the same town as Velasco Tongue (albeit in very different places it seems)

PP 39%
UP 23%
Cs 18%
PSOE 16%
CC 1%

With weird polarized politics like that it's got to be an middle-upper class suburb or neighborhood of Madrid.

Well, with CC being an option and being in the same town as Velasco, it can't be Madrid Tongue

It is indeed a middle or upper-middle class suburb though. Also one of the more ex-urban kinds of suburb, not close at all to the city center.

CC got approximately the same votes as PACMA in LPGC Grin. The neighbourhood where I have my 'official' residence (I am registered there, but that doesn't imply I live there all the time) is working class with some middle class patches and is urban. Other places in town where I lived when I was a child are more PP leaning, though. Particularly in the precinct where is located the clinic where I was born and what was my grandparents' house the PP got more than 50% of the vote.

How are CC numbers in regional/municipal elections in LPGC??? Probably better than those numbers from the general election but I don't think much better.

Other question, how people see NCa vs CC?
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seb_pard
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« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2019, 03:45:13 pm »

The results from Galicia were one of the best things of the night, and I think  there is no result.

I believe one of the reasons of this swing of Galicia is the following: the PP was really strong there but the people that voted for the party are not right wing. Galicia was one of the poorest regions decades ago and most of old people associates PP with social development. I remember that I saw one article that people told reporters that they voted for the politicians that brought electricity to the town and things like that. Thats why the PP was very strong in the country side. The thing is that the children of those people have no loyalty to the PP and also have a strong identity associated to Galicia that other parties now offer with a more attractive package.

The strength of the PP was also possible because the Galicia branch of PP was very moderate and also they defended the Galician identity, Feijoo (Galicia’s president) talks almost all the time in Galego.

When you have an election that the main theme is the role of autonomies and regional identity, you can’t expect that the right wing parties that campaign  on decreasing Autonomies’ powers do well in a region that has a strong identity  (and also, I read that Galego in the country side of Galicia is stronger than Euskera in rural Euskal Herria or Català in rural Catalunya). That is way now Feijoo is strongly advocating to return the PP to a moderate approach, because he knows that he is going to be one of the main victims of the centralist approach.
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seb_pard
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« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2019, 11:45:51 am »

Probably the right is going to win Madrid (city). Lower turnout in southern Madrid and higher in the wealthier parts.

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seb_pard
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« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2019, 02:10:57 pm »

Exit polls:

Community of Madrid



City of Madrid


Barcelona tie between Colau (Barcelona en Comú) and Maragall (ERC)
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seb_pard
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« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2019, 02:13:11 pm »

I really hope Colau ends un winning.
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seb_pard
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« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2019, 02:22:35 pm »

Barcelona exit poll

ERC 22.5% 10-11 councilors
BCOMU 22% 10-11
PSC 16% 7-8
JXCAT 12.4% 5-6
Manuel Valls- Cs 11.9% 5-6
BCap (ANC, pro-independence) 4.5% 0-2

Wow, anything about PP and la CUP?
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seb_pard
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« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2019, 02:44:56 pm »

Barcelona exit poll

ERC 22.5% 10-11 councilors
BCOMU 22% 10-11
PSC 16% 7-8
JXCAT 12.4% 5-6
Manuel Valls- Cs 11.9% 5-6
BCap (ANC, pro-independence) 4.5% 0-2

Wow, anything about PP and la CUP?

Apparently the CUP is on the same percentage as BCap and PP dissapears. Take exit polls with loads of salt. There is concern in the Podemos HQs anyway. Ada Colau is the only "mayor of change" with a decent (but cool) relationship with Pablo Iglesias. Losing Barcelona by such a narrow margin would be a serious setback.  I think the Madrid exit polls are too optimistic, given turnout decrease in the south. UP behind Más Madrid is not good for Iglesias. ..
Yeah I'm listening Cadena SER and you hear consistently that turnout in strong left areas across the country (Vallecas, Valencia, Cadiz, Valencia, etc.) felt today, and this doesn't correlate with the exit polls.

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seb_pard
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« Reply #10 on: July 10, 2019, 01:49:01 pm »

The PSOE are playing with fire. Now the PNV are considering abstaining. Tremendous irresponsibility from the Socialists.
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seb_pard
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« Reply #11 on: July 10, 2019, 06:40:00 pm »

Looks like a game of chicken between Podemos and PSOE seeing who will blink first.  Podemos is likely to lose seats so PSOE feels they have the upper hand, but an early election could precipitate a backlash and may not work in PSOE favour.
Also Enric Juliana (IMO the best political journalist in Spain) wrote that in case of a new election PP and Cs would establish alliances similars to the one in Navarra (Navarra Suma) in smaller provinces. That alone is enough to avoid a new election.
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