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July 16, 2019, 11:55:41 am
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  Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez: July 22-25) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (investiture of Pedro Sánchez: July 22-25)  (Read 33056 times)
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wolfentoad66
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« on: April 25, 2019, 09:14:08 pm »



Not sure if I'm the only one who's asked this, but... is there something resembling a possibility that shy Vox voters actually make it the largest party on the Right?
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wolfentoad66
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« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2019, 05:55:42 pm »

Rudimentary question: Would a PSOE-Podemos agreement be a formal coalition with ministerial seats assigned to Podemos MPs or is it basically just supply and confidence?
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wolfentoad66
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« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2019, 07:04:36 pm »

Rudimentary question: Would a PSOE-Podemos agreement be a formal coalition with ministerial seats assigned to Podemos MPs or is it basically just supply and confidence?
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wolfentoad66
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« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2019, 08:41:39 pm »

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wolfentoad66
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« Reply #4 on: April 30, 2019, 07:52:08 pm »

Any comments made by bildu? They will determine whether Sanchez will be able to govern or not after all.

Apparently they have said they will have the exact same position as ERC and will vote the same in Sánchez's confidence vote.

Beyond that they seem to be giving mixed signals. On one hand they claim they will support (or at least not oppose) Sánchez. On the other, they are asking for a referendum (presumably not just in Catalonia but also the Basque Country). They do seem to have some constructive rethoric but I certainly don't trust them at all.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/04/29/actualidad/1556549260_730422.html

https://www.lavanguardia.com/local/paisvasco/20190430/461968425827/otegi-eh-bildu-referendum-pedro-sanchez-gobierno-psoe-presidente-erc.html

I guess the situation will be similar to what happened before. They abstain on Sánchez's confidence vote, but then Sánchez's budget and important laws won't pass and we will go to an early election in 2021 or so.

A more interesting route seems to be this one instead:

ERC and JxCat included 4 people currently in prison and in so-called exile on their election lists, which have all taken a seat. These people, unless they renounce their seats, won't be able to swear in and sit in parliament.

That means that the majority for Sánchez to become president and pass laws will go down. With 4 seats less, that means a 346 member parliament effectively; with 174 seats required for a majority.

Coincidentally, Sánchez and his "comfortable" allies (Podemos, PNV, Compromís and PRC) add up to 173.

At that point Bildu and ERC would no longer be the kingmakers but instead that could also be the Canarian Coalition. They have said they won't support a joint Sánchez-Podemos government or one dependent on secessionists, but they could support a minority Sánchez government. If CC abstained, the vote would become 173 yes-171 no-2 abstain-4 not voting

So if the Catalans don't take their seats a la Sinn Fein, that's another option.

Finally, I've seen nothing from UPN, which would be the final option. They ran alongside Cs and PP in a joint list, but they are still an independent party after all.

Should we discard the possibility of a coalition altogether, then?
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wolfentoad66
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« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2019, 02:56:53 pm »

Former PSOE leader and statesman Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba has died

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/05/10/actualidad/1557464508_194765.html

Gonna miss you, King.
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