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  Spanish elections and politics II (Local and Regional Elections on May 26, 2019) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (Local and Regional Elections on May 26, 2019)  (Read 23349 times)
Chief Justice windjammer
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« on: March 10, 2019, 10:10:59 am »

So according to the polls, the Basque Nationalist Party is going to decide who would become PM?
What is their opinion of VOX? I guess they won't like supporting an hardcore centralist party?
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2019, 10:17:38 am »

Velasco,
Could you tell us which small parties, from the least likely to the most mikely, could support a PSOE-Podemos government?
Thanks!
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #2 on: April 27, 2019, 05:09:27 am »

The right is going to win the election.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2019, 04:23:39 pm »

What is the likeliest outcome now?
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2019, 04:47:27 pm »

So Sanchez will need bildu right?
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #5 on: April 30, 2019, 06:19:35 pm »

Any comments made by bildu? They will determine whether Sanchez will be able to govern or not after all.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2019, 06:37:01 am »

Have the canarians said anything?
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2019, 08:42:46 am »

I looked at the polls for the canarian elections ans I guess the likeliest result right now would be some kind of Canarian-PSOE-the other center left party coalition?
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2019, 01:22:57 pm »

The result in Galicia is noticeable as well, as this region is another traditional PP stronghold. The Left got 46.6%, the Right 43.8% and leftwing nationalists 6.8%. To the contrary, the Right won in traditional PSOE strongholds like Extremadura (L 47.6%, R 50.1%).

Yeah, I was wondering about the big swing in Galicia. Any idea why the left did so well in there? In general the trend I surmise has the left do better in the Northwest and the East coast, but worse in the Southern half of the country. What do you think can explain that?
I guess immigration played a factor for Andalousia moving to the right. Maybe that's why Galicia has moved to the left?
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #9 on: May 09, 2019, 10:02:51 am »

Massive polling dump from the CIS pollster. They were surprisingly accurate in the general election even if they were thought to have a big PSOE bias. In any case, here they go:

http://www.cis.es/cis/opencms/ES/NoticiasNovedades/InfoCIS/2019/Documentacion_3245-PreEAMPE19.html

Regional elections

Madrid

Img


Murcia

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Castille-Leon

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Canary Islands

Img


Castille-La Mancha

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Aragon

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Extremadura

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Balearic Islands

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Asturias

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Cantabria

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Navarra

NA+: 30.2% (16-17)
PSOE: 21.2% (11-12)
EH Bildu: 14.1% (7-8)
GBai: 14.0% (7-9)
Podemos: 10.8% (6)
IU: 4.4% (1-2)
PACMA: 1.5% (0)
Others: 2.4%

La Rioja

Img


EU Elections

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Here you can check the full results: https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/3635423/0/encuesta-cis-elecciones-autonomicas-municipales-europeas-26-mayo/

They also did local election polls for the largest cities (Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Seville and Zaragoza)



I personally believe CIS has gone back and is now giving massive landslides to the left. However, if true these would be devastating results for the Spanish right. Not only do they not make any gains whatsoever but actually lose several regions they've controlled since the end of the González era like Madrid, Canary Islands (CC) and La Rioja.

Castille-Leon of all places would be no better than a tossup! They would only be able to safely hold Murcia, with Castille-Leon leaning right (but being nowhere near safe) and La Rioja depending on whatever the regional PR+ does (I expect them to side with the left).

In particular these would be great results for PSOE; decent for PP and Podemos and very bad for Cs and especially Vox.

I certainly don't expect the right to lose Madrid; and I definitely expect the left to lose at the very least Aragon. I could be wrong, but this poll seems too good to be true, and it probably is

Could PSOE use the regional results to get an agreement with Bildu or Canaris?
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #10 on: May 11, 2019, 09:20:00 am »

Any news about bildu?
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #11 on: May 12, 2019, 05:38:47 am »

Any news about bildu?

If you are looking for government formation news, there are none, and won't be until after the regional/EU elections.

Sánchez doesn't seem all that eager to negotiate with ERC and Bildu so I guess he will just gamble on daring them (and JxCat) to vote against him.

It's easy to see Bildu/ERC caving and abstaining (which would give Sánchez a narrow majority on the 2nd ballot) but of course you then have to wonder how will he be able to pass a budget.

Another thing that has to be brought into the equation is the Basque regional elections. In theory they aren't due until Autumn 2020. However it's easy to see a snap Basque election happening this Autumn or Winter. Premier Urkullu has been unable to pass regional budgets, with Podemos, Bildu and PP voting them down in the regional parliament.

It's just a rumour at this point, but since Sánchez will depend 100% on PNV and possibly on Bildu, it's another thing to add into the equation. As if the regional elections weren't enough.

Galicia is also due for regional elections in 2020 but unlike the Basques Feijoo is certain not to call a snap election, especially because of the bad results for the right in Galicia. Feijoo will certainly overperform, but I think he will carry out a full term, especially since he has an overall majority after all, while next term he will be dependent on Cs, Vox or possibly both.
Well, if the secessionnist remain in prison, the swing voters will be CC. If not, it's going to be Bildu!
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #12 on: May 16, 2019, 03:28:17 pm »

So as of now, what is the likeliest coalition for a budget to pass?
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