*Official Election 2005 Results Thread*

[socaldem]

Update to Saturday  6:57 PM

Margin is now 410

Another 178 votes reported from Norfolk city.

McDonnell  +33
Deeds      +136
Write-in        +9

McDonnell over Deeds by 410 (0.021%)

The two bunches from Norfolk were 85% Deeds, vs. 61% overall.  I still don't know where the votes are trickling in from.  The Fairfax County web site indicates a total of 48 provisional votes among 262 thousand votes (Fairfax County is by far the largest jurisdiction in the state, with about 5 times the Richmond vote and 6 times the Norfolk vote.  If the Norfolk additions were from provisionals, the provisional rate would be roughly 40 times that of Fairfax County.

So does this mean that there are still a lot of Fairfax County provisional ballots to be counted?

That, it seems to me, would suggest that Deeds would likely have enough votes to pull into the lead.

In a recount, though, you point out that the large county voting machines make it impossible to recount.  Does that mean the recount would focus on GOP-heavy counties, and, hence, counties where McDonnell would have a better chance to make up votes?

[jimrtex]

McDonnell over Deeds by 410 (0.021%)

The two bunches from Norfolk were 85% Deeds, vs. 61% overall.  I still don't know where the votes are trickling in from.  The Fairfax County web site indicates a total of 48 provisional votes among 262 thousand votes (Fairfax County is by far the largest jurisdiction in the state, with about 5 times the Richmond vote and 6 times the Norfolk vote.  If the Norfolk additions were from provisionals, the provisional rate would be roughly 40 times that of Fairfax County.

So does this mean that there are still a lot of Fairfax County provisional ballots to be counted?

My impression is that the there were a total of 48 provisional votes in Fairfax County and that they have been counted.  Maybe their voter rolls are computerized so if someone goes to wrong polling place most can be resolved quickly, and other places they just take the ballot and let the central office resolve the vote later on.

Fairfax County canvass

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Some of the DREs may keep a record of individual ballots, but I'd be amazed if these were being mistabulated.  I suppose you could dump the individual voters and count them.  Absentee ballots have to be on paper.  The absentee vote appears to be within a few percent of the total vote in the few cities I checked.  With the margin as thin as it is, even a tiny bias towards Democrats in messing up their ballots could be crucial.  A quick sample shows that absentees are around 5%, or 100,000 statewide, presumably with about 50,000  for each candidate.  If Democrats mess up 3% of the time, and Republicans 2% of the time in a manner that the intent can be determined, that is equivalent to the current margin.

[Blank Slate]

McDonnell is back up over Deeds, 446 votes.

The current total as of 12:57 pm, today, is:

McDonnell (R)   970,793   49.97%
Deeds (D)        970,347   49.94%
write-ins              1793        .09%

[??????????]

McDonnell is back up over Deeds, 446 votes.

The current total as of 12:57 pm, today, is:

McDonnell (R)   970,793   49.97%
Deeds (D)        970,347   49.94%
write-ins              1793        .09%

Deeds and his type are trying to steal this thing. Thankfully they are falling flat on their faces.

[WMS]

Results of Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands Governor/Lt Governor race:

Fitiali & Villagomez (Covenant)      3497 28.3%
Hofschneider & Apatang (Independent) 3371 27.3%
Babauta & Benavente (Republican)     3228 26.1%
Tenorio & Santos (Democrat)          2256 18.3%

Roughly 1600 absentee ballots to be counted on November 16.

Ah, the Dems and Reps are running behind a third party and an independent...I love it.

[minionofmidas]

Lol.

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[The Dowager Mod]

Forrester may be right.

[Blank Slate]

McDonnell is back up over Deeds, 446 votes.

The current total as of 12:57 pm, today, is:

McDonnell (R)   970,793   49.97%
Deeds (D)        970,347   49.94%
write-ins              1793        .09%

Deeds and his type are trying to steal this thing. Thankfully they are falling flat on their faces.

Yeah, whatever.   Perhaps the Republicans rigged those machines, again.  Glad Kaine was far enough ahead he didn't have to put up with that crap.

[Blank Slate]

Forrester may be right.

Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha.  What is Forrester and the Republicans going to blame everyone except for their and the candidate's  ineptness for Forrester's defeat?

[jimrtex]

McDonnell is back up over Deeds, 446 votes.

The current total as of 12:57 pm, today, is:

McDonnell (R)   970,793   49.97%
Deeds (D)        970,347   49.94%
write-ins              1793        .09%

Monday's additions are from Louisa county (midway between Fredericksburg, Charlottesville, and Richmond).

McDonnell     +158
Deeds           +122
Write-ins             0

The 280 added votes represent about 3.6% votes beyond the original vote totals.  If this were repeated statewide, we would see around 70,000 votes trickling in.

The 158:122 is within 1% of the other votes, so perhaps these are late counted absentees.  Many jurisdiction have one or more "Absentee Vote" precinct swhich appear to correspond to congressional districts.  Louisa county does not have the special precinct.

[Alcon]

This thread is already the 8th largest of all time.  Nice.

[Ben.]

Deeds and his type are trying to steal this thing. Thankfully they are falling flat on their faces.

Hardly, it's an automatic state recount... if there is one demanded by the Dems then it'll be nothing more than what the GOP did in the Washington Gov race last year. 

[Alcon]

Deeds and his type are trying to steal this thing. Thankfully they are falling flat on their faces.

Hardly, it's an automatic state recount... if there is one demanded by the Dems then it'll be nothing more than what the GOP did in the Washington Gov race last year. 

To be fair, it would be what the Dems did.

Actually, to be fair, it would be what no one did.

It's Washington state law, in fact - at least the first recount was.  The second one was agreed to by both parties.  If the Republicans want to cry foul, they should have done so before they agreed to that recount.

[Blank Slate]

Well as of 11:37 am today, McDonnell is back down to a 393 vote lead in the VA Attorney General's race.

Current results as of 11:37 am:

McDonnell (R)   970,816  49.96%
Deeds (D)        970,423   49.94%
write-ins               1793       .09%

Does anyone know if this is part of an automatic recount or is Virginia stilll counting absentee and provisional ballotts?

Also jimrtrex (I have some difficulty doing this, but you seem to be better at it), can you do your figuring from where McDonnell and Deeds are getting the new votes that have been added?   Thanks.

[ag]

A couple of hours later:

R F McDonnell  Republican 970,889 49.96%
  R C Deeds  Democratic 970,532 49.94%
  Write Ins    1,793 0.09%
Total:    1,943,214   

The margin is 357 votes.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Deeds should run for Governor in 2009.

[minionofmidas]

Uh, I think he's to the right of Kaine (but maybe I just think that because of that NRA endorsement?) and he loses (or not) while Kaine wins. Don't think he makes that sexy a candidate.

[jimrtex]

A couple of hours later:

R F McDonnell  Republican 970,889 49.96%
  R C Deeds  Democratic 970,532 49.94%
  Write Ins    1,793 0.09%
Total:    1,943,214   

The margin is 357 votes.

The most noteworthy changes are at the bottom, I have bolded the highlights.


Since yesterday:
   McDonnell    +99
   Deeds        +185

   Margin        357 McDonnell (0.018%)



The SBE site has added a precinct (or precincts) called "Conditional Votes" to each locality.  Fairfax County includes the 47 provisional votes that I had noted from the Fairfax County's web site (actually 48 ballots, one person skipped the AG race).

There were updates from 32 localities, many ones and twos that corresponded to the conditional votes (I didn't check mosy to confirm that these were conditional votes).  There were a few more in larger localities:

Norfolk city       12: 4 M, 8 D
Charlottesville    8: 3 M 5 D
Alexandria city  14: 7 M, 8 D
Prince William     7: 4 M, 3 D
Loudoun           11: 7 M, 4 D
Henrico             19: 8 M, 11 D
Fairfax              47: 19 m, 28 D
Chesterfield      14: 7 M, 7 D
Arlington           13: 3 M, 10 D

Overall conditionals broke:

McDonnell     73
Deeds          107


There are many localities that did not (or have not) reported conditional votes.  In the localities that did report them, they were typically on the order of 1 in 3,000 to 5,000 votes, so it is possible that many smaller counties simply didn't have any.  Localities with more than 10,000 total votes that have not reported conditional votes are: Danville, Hampton, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Virginia Beach cities, and York, Washington, Stafford, Rockingham, Roanoke, Pittsylvania, Isle of Wight, Campbell, Botetourt, Bedford, and Augusta counties.  It would be surprising that Virginia Beach with 96,000 votes had no conditional votes, so I would expect some more conditional votes to show up in the next few days, including additional
votes in some localities that have already reported some.

There were two counties that reported other additional votes:

Henrico County (Richmond suburbs)
  +31 McDonnell
  +30 Deeds

This includes 19 conditional votes notes above, so there were
42 additional vote that were:
   +23 McDonnell
   +19 Deeds

Accomack County (Eastern Shore):
  +0 McDonnell
  +56 Deeds

No conditional votes here, and there are only 7,605 votes in the county, which McDonnell carried with 54.5% of the vote.

[Sarnstrom]

The margin is now 347 votes.

[socaldem]

The Lege races of 2005 also were interesting, imo...

I've been watching the central NJ 13th state assembly district where Republicans seemed poised to knock off the two Democratic incumbents.  Aided by a pair of Green party spoilers,  Dem. Robert Morgan was defeated by top vote-getter Jennifer Beck.  Dem Mike Panter, however, has apparently defeated his opponent Declan O'Scanlan by ONE VOTE! (according to politicsnj.com)  He had been trailing for weeks and the outcome will likely be challenged by a recount and, perhaps, in court.

If Panter wins, that means the legislative races in 2005 have the following results:

NJ:
GOP wins 1 Dem-held seat
Dems win 3 GOP-held seats
Outcome: + 2 D

VA:
GOP wins 2 Dem-held seats
Dems win 3 GOP-held seats
Indy wins 1 GOP-held seat
Outcome: +1 D, +1I

MO:
Dems win 1 GOP-held seat
GOP wins 1 Dem-held seat

outcome: no change

I think its also notable that NJ had a number of women enter the legislature with four more women in the state assembly and one more in the state senate.  Because NJ politics is so controlled by machines on both sides, it has often been hard for women to gain political office there.

[Alcon]

AuH2O posted that the Democrats got whupped in the Virginia state legislature.  Am I missing something, or was he just incorrect?

[Virginian87]

AuH2O posted that the Democrats got whupped in the Virginia state legislature.  Am I missing something, or was he just incorrect?

I think he meant that although the Dems picked up one seat, the Dems still face a huge difference in the House of Delegates, something like 60-40

[jimrtex]

As of 5:07 pm Tuesday

Margin McDonnell +347

Changes:

Botetourt (+2)
    Write-in +2

Fluvanna (-54)
    McDonnell  -32
    Deeds        -22

[Gabu]

AuH2O posted that the Democrats got whupped in the Virginia state legislature.  Am I missing something, or was he just incorrect?

He said that, but then he corrected himself when he realized that the Democrats were actually up one seat.

[socaldem]

AuH2O posted that the Democrats got whupped in the Virginia state legislature.  Am I missing something, or was he just incorrect?

Well, given that there was a Democratic breeze strong enough to give Leslie Byrne over 49% of the vote--significantly more than Jerry Kilgore received, Democrats did not pick up as many seats as might have been hoped.  They did lose a number of northern virginia squeakers (though they blew away hated GOP incumbent Black and right-wing loony candidate Craddick).  While Dems made gains in Northern Virginia, they lost a couple outstate seats--seeing Southwest VA incumbent Keister lose out in the only region in which Kilgore overperformed.