The Presidential Republic - 1949 Chilean Congressional Election

[Lumine]

March 1949 - After a year in office
President Alessandri (center) hopes for a friendlier Congress

Prelude: After a difficult year in office in which President Fernando Alessandri has successfully implemented domestic initiatives yet struggled against inflation and the increased pressure from General Perón, the time has come for a new Congress to be elected. Facing an absolute minority in both houses that can't sustain his vetos, can President Alessandri defeat the powerful Socialist plurality?

The Government (Concentración Nacional)

Liberal Party (PL) - Now the principal party of government under President Alessandri, the Liberals have slightly moved towards the center based on the technocratic principles of their new President, whose ideal appears to be a "national pragmatic government". Alessandri leads the PL campaign asking the public to give him a mandate to implement his program, and the PL itself champions social and economic liberalization, and anti-inflation economic strategy, promotion of the private sector, anti-Peronism, the defense of democracy and the protection of law and order and enacting full-women's suffrage at the earliest opportunity.

Conservative Agrarian Party (PCA) - Born out the fusion between Conservatives and Agrarians and the temporary marginalization of the Social-Christians, the Conservative Agrarian Party has entered the Congressional race in strong support of Alessandri's attempts to "restore order and stability", while promoting their own agenda of unyielding traditional catholicism, moderate anti-communism, agrarian-corporativist economics, regional decentralization, pro-full women's suffrage and a strong pro-nationalist and anti-Peron message, advocating for a full military build-up to protect Chile from Argentina.

The Centrist Parties

Radical Party (PR) - Having helped elect Alessandri and opposed to Rossetti's populist vision, the Radicals have moved towards the center and reasserted their political autonomy for the time being under the dual leadership of reformist Senator Florencio Durán and former Minister Arturo Olavarría, expressing a willingness to join the government provided their conditions are met. Now led by the centrist and furiously anti-communist wing, the Radicals are running on preserving meritocracy, social liberalism, expansion of the public sector, and support for health care and education expansion.

The Socialist-Ibañists (Alianza del Pueblo)

Socialist Party (PS) - Fresh from the 48' campaign Juan Bautista Rossetti remains in full command of PS despite the survival internal rivals, and has transformed the PS to match his unique vision for this campaign. Abandoning Schnake's "social democracy" dream Rossetti's PS runs as a political party of the masses, championing populism, nationalism, and with the reorganized Ibañista forces as their new allies. As a result the PS continues to brand Alessandri as an oligarch only a Socialist majority can stop, and the party platform calls for expansion of land reform, anti-communism, protectionism and the mass expansion of wages.

Democratic Labor Party (PDL) - Born out of the fusion of the Ibañista UNI and the Democratic Party, the PDL gathers the political elements who supported General Ibañez in 1948 and while retaining the General as their most prominent candidate have also developed into a populist left-wing party. Firm allies of Rossetti in the so called Alianza del Pueblo, the PDL champions "anti-oligarchic economics", lowering the cost of living, anti-corruption and anti-establishment politics, economic protectionism, support for women's suffrage and a nationalist foreign policy.

The Leftist Bloc (Frente del Pueblo)

Communist Party (PCCh) - Having held to their share of the vote in 1948 their brash leader Ricardo Fonseca remains in command of the party, now leading a loose three-party alliance (Frente del Pueblo) that purports to replace Rossetti and his allies as the strongest leftist coalition. The PCCh calls to support the Soviet Union against the "imperialistic US" and seek an alliance to contain Perón's Argentina, while reiterating the need to replace the entire existing political system via a constituent assembly and create a new Chile founded on marxist-stalinist principles and under the power of the working classes. 

Popular Socialist Party (PSP) - More firm than ever on their rejection of the PS due to Rossetti's rise, the Popular Socialists remain committed to the message of being Chile's "one true Socialist party". Led by the impressively young (32) ideologue Raúl Ampuero, the Popular Socialists have broken with the PS platform and presented their own vision of democratic socialism, including a pan-american, anti-Peron and anti-US foreign policy, rejection of the Soviet Union, expansion of civil liberties, organization and fusion of the worker organizations and trade unions into one major union federation and large-scale land reform.

Radical Democratic Party (PRD) - In the aftermath of the PR swing to the center its left-wing split from the party under leadership of ambitious firebrand Gabriel González Videla, a strong believed in the need for unity in the Chilean-left and center-left and a major opponent of the anti-communist tendencies within the Socialist Party. Asserting the need for unity and the revival of the "Popular Front", the Radical Democrats support industrialization, foreign policy neutrality, expansion of public services and state intervention, social liberalism and defending democracy.

Two days.

[DC Al Fine]

Conservative-Agrarian

[Former President tack50]

Radical Party easily, though I'd be tempted by the liberals

[Kingpoleon]

For a stronger military; for women’s suffrage; for Chile! Vote Radical!

[H. Ross Peron]

Radical Party

[PSOL]

Go PSP! Go, Go PSP!! Reject the totalitarian Stalinists abroad,and Capitalist forces at home.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

PCA, easily.

Do all the parties support women's suffrage?

[Intell]

Popular Socialist Party, mistakenly voted for the PRD.

[Lumine]

PCA, easily.

Do all the parties support women's suffrage?

Not all, some are undecided (PS) and in some there's still significant internal opposition (PSP, PCCh).

Ironically enough in Chile it was the right-wing parties who first pushed for women's suffrage in the 1920's, and they were given the right to vote in municipal elections under Alessandri Sr. in 1934. The largest opposition to women's suffrage came from the left and the more secular parties, as they - correctly - assumed that women were generally far more conservative than men, and once granted the municipal vote the gender gap favoring the right was noticeable.

Most parties did come around to supporting expansion of women's suffrage to the presidential / congressional elections in public, while also delaying it as long as they could. It ended up being a cross-party coalition that got it done by 1949, signed into office by President González Videla (PR) as a way to combat his rising unpopularity. It didn't work, and while women initially went strongly into the Ibañista camp for the first few years, they were to become decisive Chilean right and responsible for some of their few major victories.

With the current results passage of women's suffrage appears to be at least feasible, I haven't decided yet whether it will come with a bonus for the most pro-women's suffrage parties (PL, PCA, PDL) in 1953-1954 to reflect the historical trends.

[Wikipedia delenda est]

Popular Socialist Party

[UlmerFudd]

Liberal

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

PCA, easily.

Do all the parties support women's suffrage?

Not all, some are undecided (PS) and in some there's still significant internal opposition (PSP, PCCh).

Ironically enough in Chile it was the right-wing parties who first pushed for women's suffrage in the 1920's, and they were given the right to vote in municipal elections under Alessandri Sr. in 1934. The largest opposition to women's suffrage came from the left and the more secular parties, as they - correctly - assumed that women were generally far more conservative than men, and once granted the municipal vote the gender gap favoring the right was noticeable.

Most parties did come around to supporting expansion of women's suffrage to the presidential / congressional elections in public, while also delaying it as long as they could. It ended up being a cross-party coalition that got it done by 1949, signed into office by President González Videla (PR) as a way to combat his rising unpopularity. It didn't work, and while women initially went strongly into the Ibañista camp for the first few years, they were to become decisive Chilean right and responsible for some of their few major victories.

With the current results passage of women's suffrage appears to be at least feasible, I haven't decided yet whether it will come with a bonus for the most pro-women's suffrage parties (PL, PCA, PDL) in 1953-1954 to reflect the historical trends.

that's very interesting, thanks.

[thumb21]

Radical

[PSOL]

Would a Left coalition government with RDP, the Communists, PSP, the rump Socialists, and the Ibañistas be possible or viable? Or are there too much bad blood and ideological preferences for it to even occur? Can, and how, would voters give their preference on coalitionary governments?

Also, what’s the threshold to win a seat?

[Lumine]

Would a Left coalition government with RDP, the Communists, PSP, the rump Socialists, and the Ibañistas be possible or viable? Or are there too much bad blood and ideological preferences for it to even occur?

Well, no, it's not a parliamentary system, it's just the elections for Congress under a Presidential system in which the President (Alessandri) remains in control of the government and his ministers, but whose governing is made a lot easier by virtue of having a majority in both houses of Congress.

They could arguably join forces as a large opposition bloc when it comes to rejecting most government legislation and possibly passing some measures (which Alessandri could veto if considered too radical), but not full coordination accounting for the bad relationship between for example PS and PSP.

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It's just that in the 1925-1973 era in Chile the party system was fluid and Presidents could call some of the multiple parties to enter their governments and hold some ministries.

In the most extreme historical example President Gonzalez Videla (PR, 1946-1952) started his Radical government with Congressional minority support from his PR, the Communists and leftist forces (1946-1947). He then turned on the Communists, had their party banned and then formed a new ministry with the right (PR + PL + a conservative splinter) from 1947-1950. Then that ministry fell and Gonzalez Videla formed a new centrist ministry with his own Radicals and the centrist Social-Christians (1950-1952). He thus was our only President to govern with the left, the right and the center in a single presidential term, aided by the centrist to center-left position of the Radical Party which enabled such combinations.

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That depends, elections to the Chamber of Deputies (147 seats) are fought on districts with multiple seats accounting for population (less populated 1 seat, largest having 17), seats distributed by d'Hondt as voters vote for a single candidate while the counting considers party or coalition lists to distribute the seats.

Elections to the Senate (45 seats) take place in 9 districts with 5-seats each, and also use d'Hondt to distribute the seats.

Much the specific data for historical elections isn't available on the internet and it would be eternal to calculate the results, so there's significant guess work and comparisons to historical elections involved.

That I know of there wasn't a threshold, but the size of the districts helped reduce excessive representation of minor parties.

[Lumine]

1949 Congressional Elections

March 1949 - Rossetti's meteoric political rise
ends for good after the Socialists suffer an utter meltdown

Popular Vote:

PCCh: 22.2% (+12.7)
PL: 19.7% (+7.7)
PSP: 19.7% (+12.6)
PR: 12.2% (+2.6)
PCA: 12.2% (+2.6)
PDL: 4.7 (-2.2)
PRD: 2.2 (+2.2)
PS: 2.2% (-36.6)
OTH: 2.4% (+0.4)
Government: 31.9% (+8.1)

Deputies:

PCCh: 37 (+26)
PL: 33 (+13)
PSP: 31 (+23)
PCA: 21 (+2)
PR: 18 (+5)
PDL: 4 (-2)
PRD: 2 (+2)
PS: 1 (-68 )
OTH: 0
Government: 54 (+15), 20 short of a majority

Senate:

PS: 12 (-6)
PL: 9 (+1)
PCCh: 7 (+3)
PR: 7 (=)
PCA: 7 (-1)
PSP: 3 (+3)
OTH: 0
Government: 16 (=), 7 short of a majority

At the onset of 1949 the upcoming campaign for the Congressional elections was conceived first and foremost as the second round of the political struggle between Fernando Alessandri and Juan Bautista Rossetti, both men having come from background roles into the protagonism of both the right and the left. With Alessandri in the presidency and Rossetti marshalling a vast PS congressional machine both men were bound to fight each other over Congress in March, the President aiming to push back enough to curtain Rossetti's ability to block his agenda and the former Vice-President fully prepared to hold his strong position and dictate terms to the administration.

That political battle between both men ended in the most unexpected manner at the start of the year when the pro-government press alleged that prominent PS politicians had actually been receiving financial support from Perón's Argentina. The scandal resulted in arrests by detectives and the discovery of actual illegal funding of the PS over the last few months of which Rossetti was described as being at least aware of. The political earthquake proved to be unprecedented, party founder Marmaduque Grove and his entire faction jumping ship to the Popular Socialists as scores of party candidates and supporters defected to the Communists, Popular Socialists or other movements in a meltdown which crippled the party for good.

In this backdrop of rapid downfall for the party, the contest soon turned into a battle between the pro-government forces and the Frente del Pueblo, the main benefactor of the Socialist collapse and which proved united and competent on its campaign. On election night even the most pessimistic projections for the Socialists turned out to be wildly optimistic as the party went from almost 39% to 2%, the public furious at what they considered to be treasonous and the subsequent wave of anger damaging the PDL by association - General Ibañez narrowly lost his final bid for Senate -, ending Rossetti's political and public career and reducing the PS (aside of a lone Deputy) to its surviving Senators elected in 1945, safe for four years more.

The largest winner by far was the Frente del Pueblo as the PCCh shot up from decadence into Chile's largest party at 22%, the PSP not far behind at 20% while González Videla's Radical splinter vehicle crashed and obtained a disappointing result. The government also had a reasonably positive night by virtue of climbing back to 30%, still a far-cry from 1941 (35%) but vastly better than the 1945 disaster. Holding the fort in the Senate and gaining the awaited 1/3 in the Chamber of Deputies President Alessandri could now successfully veto opposition legislation, but remained far away from an actual majority. The Radicals also recovered ground back to 12%, a result which appeared to validate their new strategy.

Once the smoke cleared and as the remnants of the Socialist Party rump were left open for the coming internal civil war, President Alessandri called the Radical Party into government and successfully formed a PL-PCA-PR ministry. Despite a narrow Senate majority and being two votes short in the Chamber of the Deputies, the President had at least improved his precarious situation.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I don't understand how you got the "Government" figures and what you mean by them.  What parties are being combined?  You mention the Government as PL-PCA-PR, but aren't the figures are too low to include all of those?

[Lumine]

I don't understand how you got the "Government" figures and what you mean by them.  What parties are being combined?  You mention the Government as PL-PCA-PR, but aren't the figures are too low to include all of those?

Oh, I use the numbers the current government and its parties have right before the election, so those "Government" figures account for how the PL and PCA stand. The Radicals - as noted in the write-up - are invited to and join the government after the election, and only then it becomes a PL-PCA-PR ministry.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I don't understand how you got the "Government" figures and what you mean by them.  What parties are being combined?  You mention the Government as PL-PCA-PR, but aren't the figures are too low to include all of those?

Oh, I use the numbers the current government and its parties have right before the election, so those "Government" figures account for how the PL and PCA stand. The Radicals - as noted in the write-up - are invited to and join the government after the election, and only then it becomes a PL-PCA-PR ministry.

Ok, thanks, that clears it up.