Would you agree with these probabilities for both the Primaries and General

[OSR stands with Israel]

I give Biden a 35% chance of being the nominee and 75% chance of winning the general if he is the nominee

I give Warren a 25% chance of being the nominee and 30% chance of winning the general if she is the nominee

I give Harris a 20%  chance of being the nominee and 33% chance of winning the general if she is the nominee

I give Bernie a 18% chance of being the nominee and 50% chance of winning the general if he is the nominee

I give the others a 2% chance of being the nominee and then 50% chance of winning the general if they are the nominee

[Podgy the Bear]

Overall, I think it's pretty good, but I wouldn't give Biden 75 percent (even though I hope it is).  Probably slightly better than 50/50 and he's the best shot to win back the trifecta of MI, PA, and WI.

 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Overall, I think it's pretty good, but I wouldn't give Biden 75 percent (even though I hope it is).  Probably slightly better than 50/50 and he's the best shot to win back the trifecta of MI, PA, and WI.

 

I think Biden is a great fit for both the Rust Belt and Sun Belt(The only candidate in the race who is a great fit for both) which would give Trump a lot of trouble. I also think he unlike the rest has a good chance of winning FL which would pretty mean Trump would lose. For Trump to win against Biden he would have pretty much run the table everywhere


Against Bernie I think the election comes down to whoever wins Wisconsin


Harris is a terrible fit  Rust Belt and could very much cost the Dems MN and NH and there is no way a Dem can make up for those types of losses.

Warren on the other hand is a terrible fit for both the Rust Belt and Sun Belt . It pretty much would almost be the inverse of a Biden vs Trump race

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Lol no. Every single Dem is heavily favored against Trump.