What’s more likely: GOP winning CA or Democrat winning ID?

[I’m not Stu]

Which is more likely?

[gottsu]

Idaho for sure.

[Xing]

A Democrat winning Idaho, since .00001% > .000000000000000001%

[Politician]

The one where the opposite party came within 3% in a Superintendent race.

[I’m not Stu]

The one where the opposite party came within 3% in a Superintendent race.

How did Cindy Wilson do so well in such a red state?

[lfromnj]

The one where the opposite party came within 3% in a Superintendent race.

How did Cindy Wilson do so well in such a red state?

A lot of red state voters dislike the GOP on education issues
Our forum resident there is Alabama_Indy

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

In order to win California the gop would have to win over a huge amount of voters like me.

Never, ever going to happen. Not for another few decades and a complete realignment, at least.

[Sorenroy]

Moderate Republicans have a track record of overperforming and even winning in traditionally Democratic states for major statewide offices. California has much different demographics then some of the states in the North-East, but I imagine the same could hold true, given the right environment. California.

[AtorBoltox]

Neither will happen, but Idaho is more likely. A republican in california would have to change the votes of millions of people who despise their party, whereas a Democrat would have to do the same with only thousands

[Mr. Smith]

Idaho.

For the same reasons Utah has shifted a little D. Still only a bucket drop though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems dont need ID small 4 electors

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Statewide: I would say CA is more likely to elect a Charlie Baker-type GOP candidate but I can't see CA Dems of 2022 being so feckless as to nominate a Coakley/(Anthony) Brown-type candidate. They have a stronger bench than that.

National race: Blue Idaho for the sole reason that statistical anomalies are more likely with smaller sample sizes, although neither will happen any time soon.

[MT Treasurer]

I mean, Idaho almost elected a Democrat in 2018 (for Superintendent of Public Instruction), and CA would vote for anyone with a D next to their name, so yeah... not sure why this is a question.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

The right kind of Democrat could win ID, facing an awful GOP candidate and a friendly national environment. There is no right kind of Republican to win CA. Unless the Dems are locked out in the jungle primary.