OFFICIAL embarassing Gubernatoral quotes thread

[CARLHAYDEN]

I kicked things off with this one:

This is another example of SUSA going seriously wacky.

Kaine is HIGHLY unlikely to get more that 48% of the vote, and Kilgore is HIGHLY unlikely to get less than 45% of the vote.

Potts is likely to get between 2% to 5% of the vote.

Congragulations Gabu, you were able to sneak a liberal into the Virginia Governor's seat.  Its never been done before!


Oh, and did Kilgore get less than 45% of the vote (as SUSA predicted)?

[CARLHAYDEN]

I kicked things off with this one:

This is another example of SUSA going seriously wacky.

Kaine is HIGHLY unlikely to get more that 48% of the vote, and Kilgore is HIGHLY unlikely to get less than 45% of the vote.

Potts is likely to get between 2% to 5% of the vote.

Congragulations Gabu, you were able to sneak a liberal into the Virginia Governor's seat.  Its never been done before!


Oh, and did Kilgore get less than 45% of the vote (as SUSA predicted)?

SurveyUSA predicted that Kilgore would get 45%, not less than 45%, and they were within their MoE.

SurveyUSA was within their Margin of Error.  You, on the other hand, were not in your prediction of Kaine failing to hit 48%.  Everyone, polling companies included, are wrong on occasion.  You were this time, and SurveyUSA was within its MoE.  Just take the loss with grace.  We all mis-call races every once and a while, even pollsters.

EDIT:  I went to bed last night when Kaine was up only a few percentage points.  Now I find that SurveyUSA underestimated Kaine's victory margin, and you are still attempting to paint this as a bias toward the Democrats?  You are a braver man than I.

Alcon,

As I earlier stated, I erred.

So, go ahead and celebrate.

I STILL do NOT trust SUSA's numbers  much more than I trust Zogby's.

Zogby did well in 2000 because of some unusual circumstances, NOT BECAUSE OF GOOD METHODOLOGY.

I want to look at the numbers before I state why the election in Virginia went so haywire.

I suspect that Boss Tweed in another post may have pegged it.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Yes, I did indeed err.

As I told Alcon, I am investigating, but suspect the Boss Tweed has pegged the core of the problem.

[CARLHAYDEN]

You had posted in another thread information about the turnout rates in different areas of Virginia.

Kaine areas had relatively higher than normal turnout whereas Kilgore areas has relatively lower than normal.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Ah, but look at the numbers.

It seems that Kaine strongholds had relatively higher turnouts than normal, and the Kilfore stongholds had relatively low than normal turnouts.

You may have been simply 'blowing smoke,' but this is apparently what happened.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I kicked things off with this one:

This is another example of SUSA going seriously wacky.

Kaine is HIGHLY unlikely to get more that 48% of the vote, and Kilgore is HIGHLY unlikely to get less than 45% of the vote.

Potts is likely to get between 2% to 5% of the vote.

Congragulations Gabu, you were able to sneak a liberal into the Virginia Governor's seat.  Its never been done before!


Oh, and did Kilgore get less than 45% of the vote (as SUSA predicted)?

SurveyUSA predicted that Kilgore would get 45%, not less than 45%, and they were within their MoE.

SurveyUSA was within their Margin of Error.  You, on the other hand, were not in your prediction of Kaine failing to hit 48%.  Everyone, polling companies included, are wrong on occasion.  You were this time, and SurveyUSA was within its MoE.  Just take the loss with grace.  We all mis-call races every once and a while, even pollsters.

EDIT:  I went to bed last night when Kaine was up only a few percentage points.  Now I find that SurveyUSA underestimated Kaine's victory margin, and you are still attempting to paint this as a bias toward the Democrats?  You are a braver man than I.

Oh, and BTW, the SUSA survey to which I had responded in the post you cited, had Kilgore at 43, with Kaine at 52 and Potts at 3.

I will presume that you merely misunderstood the survey to which I was posting and were not deliberately using a subsequent SUSA survey (even they realized that prediction was wacky) to take my post out of context.