The Presidential Republic – The Argentinian Civil War (1952)

[Lumine]

January 1952 - With Eva Perón trying to contain a coup that killed her husband,
will Chile attempt revenge over the Beagle War?

Prelude: The aftermath of the Beagle War and the territorial and economic losses left to Chile had left the nation deeply resentful and significantly weakened, in what was to be the sudden end of the Schnake Presidency. In the course of his government Fernando Alessandri had had to face constant extra demands, threats and humiliations by General Perón, but had also made good on his promise to rebuild the Chilean armed forces (helped by allies such as Great Britain) and restored a decent relationship both to Washington as well as key partners like Brazil.

On the other hand, victory in the war had enormously bolstered Perón and allowed him to take harsher and harsher measures to crack down on the opposition, as well as turned his wife Eva into an even bigger political phenomenon. An unrestrained Perón had managed to antagonize the Church, the democratic opposition and a group of high offices of the Armed Forces in the span of four years, and while his political capital was enough to secure for his dear Evita the Vice-Presidential nomination for the 1951 Presidential Election (an utterly unprecedented move) and win the election after restraining the opposition, he had also finally pushed his opponents too far.

The coup launched by Generals Menéndez and Lonardi on January 3rd, 1952 alongside most of the Navy and the Air Force had failed to mobilize a majority of the Army, but the situation had dramatically altered when an airstrike hit the Casa Rosada that evening and ended Perón's life. The situation soon turned into chaos as large parts of Western Argentina were captured by rebel forces and joined by various opposition forces - from the democratic right to the communists -, all while the passionate (and angry) new Presdent Eva Perón rallied the masses, the trade unions and the Peronist forces to rise and smash the plotters.

After a week of severe and harsh infighting - and hundreds of casualties - President Alessandri and his government now face a crucial decision.

Intervention – Revenge invasion of Argentina - Acknowledging how distracted the Argentine military is and confident on the reform of the Armed Forces during his term, President Alessandri is swayed by the furiously pro-war supporters, makes a gamble and pushes for an immediate declaration of war and invasion of Argentina. Reasoning that Chile may not get a better opportunity, the Chilean military is instructed to regain territory lost under the Beagle War and possibly capture all of Tierra del Fuego, betting on a short but successful war of revenge.

Intervention – Send ultimatum to Eva Perón - Uncertain of outright invasion, President Alessandri decides to take the opportunity to send an ultimatum to Evita Perón - not unlike the one sent by Perón on 1947) demanding the Treaty of Ushuaia to be declared void and the borders restored to the pre-Beagle War situation, threatening to otherwise invade Argentina and/or provide military support to the rebels. Reasoning that Mrs. Perón would not be willing to fight two wars at the same time, it would nonetheless mean a gamble on her possible reaction.

Non-Intervention – Minor support for the Opposition - Unwilling to place Chile into a dangerous situation but at the same time convinced of the danger posed by Eva Perón, President Alessandri openly declares Chile a neutral nation in the conflict, but nonetheless ensures a certain measure of covert support for the opposition. Those in favor would argue that a rebel victory with Chilean support would put in place a friendlier government in charge of Argentina, although whether it would mean amending the Treaty of Ushuaia would be uncertain.

Non-Intervention – Let it play out - Determined not to get himself into a war, President Alessandri refuses to listen to the pro-war voices and stubbornly keeps Chile neutral and without any role in the conflict, even at the cost of disapproval from those determined to take revenge for the Beagle War. While this would prevent enraging Eva Perón at a time in which he is fully committed to destroy her enemies, inaction could mean her victory and prolonged hostility from Argentina, or a rebel victory without Chilean support could mean a similar outcome.

Two days. I'll count the "Non-Intervention" and "Intervention" votes first, and then which alternative within that prevails.

[Wikipedia delenda est]

Minor support for the Opposition. After how the Beagle War played out, I'm afraid that an invasion could prove disastrous, even with an improved armed forces.

[Kingpoleon]

Our armed forces, joined with the Argentine Navy and Air Force, must attack the Perón regime.

[Former President tack50]

Intervention-Ultimatum

I don't support a war of agression on all of Argentina, but I do support sending an ultimatum first and trying to take back legitimate Chilean land.

I wonder if the rebels would be willing to give it.

[PSOL]

Doing an all out war right now is not strategically smart nor moral. We should give an ultimatum first to get our land back though, as well as give non-arms aide to the rebels fighting for liberty.

[Lumine]

A few hours left, currently two-thirds in support of intervention and the invasion leads the ultimatum.

[Lumine]

The 2nd Beagle War
January-March 1952

1952 - As Eva Perón loses the war,
Chile takes revenge and seizes Tierra del Fuego

Note: Alessandri rolled a 6 on foreign affairs, then a 5 on this war.

Debate within the government on the opportunities afforded by the Civil War in Argentina was brief but intense, and signaled a significant level of disagreement as to the course that should be followed. Generally speaking, President Alessandri was averse to the notion of a military adventure along with roughly a third of the cabinet, while at the same time the supporters of the war - led by Minister of the Interior Jaime Larraín (PCA) - counted roughly two-thirds and passionately promoted their dream of avenging the Beagle disaster. With most of the press demanding intervention and a wave of anti-Peronism frenzy taking over the public President Alessandri (perhaps remembering the memory of his now-deceased father) took one of his rare impulsive decisions: it was time for war.

Instead of the bitter, costly war of attrition that had meant taking on the entire military of Argentine the offensive - following a war declaration by the Senate - was focused on the South and essentially to lost territories and Tierra del Fuego. With the pro and anti-Perón military too busy fighting their way across north and central Argentina enemy units proved to be isolated, allowing the concentrated Chilean forces to slowly but surely overrun the enemy positions as the Andes proved to be a useful barrier against any possible counteroffensive from the Argentine. By February the Civil War continued to present a never-ending dilemma to both sides on the war, and after the fall of Ushuaia offensive operations could cease.

Negotiating a deal with the new opposition Junta formed in Mendoza the Treaty of Ushuaia was declared void, returning the territories lost in 1947 to Chile, ending war reparations and restoring the Chilean claims on Antartica in what essentially reversed the 1947 situation. Having ruled out major territorial demands on Argentina out of fear of international backlash, minor border corrections over past disputes proved to be the price the Opposition Junta would pay at the Treaty of Punta Arenas (March 1952) in return for captured territory being placed under their control as well as receiving logistical support from the Chilean military. It would take months for Evita to be evicted from Buenos Aires following the November Riots, and even more time for the opposition to temporarily seize control of the nation as Evita fled, pondering her next moves.

In the meantime President Alessandri wasted no time to claim victory. Despite criticism in some quarters over the dangerous gamble that had taken place, it seemed that the 1st Beagle War had been avenged and that it would take some time for Argentina to regain control due to the bloody civil war.