Georgia GE 2020: Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump: Who wins?

[Suburbia]

Georgia, a red-leaning state that can be a potential battleground state. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton made it competitive against John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump. The Republicans did not win the state at Reagan/Bushes level.

Kamala can turn Georgia into a blue state because of black voters in Atlanta and the suburbs and beyond, and also Latino and Asian voters. She may copy Stacey Abrams' electoral strategy.

Who wins Georgia?

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Either way, I think Georgia will be decided by 1-2 points, with a slight edge to Trump.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Presidential candidates don’t need 50 percent to win so Trump. Harris may continue Abrams’ strength with non whites but I don’t see soft Republicans voting for Harris. They’ll vote third party. Abrams could still end up with the Senate seat through a run off. She is much more palatable to white independents.

[Da2017]

It be competitive. Trump has the edge as an incumbent. She might pull it off if the economy goes south. Overall adventage Trump.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It be competitive. Trump has the edge as an incumbent. She might pull it off if the economy goes south. Overall adventage Trump.

GA is gonma be competitive if we get Abrams to run, barring that, likely R

[ON Progressive]

Trump by about a point.

[Podgy the Bear]

It will be reasonably close, but Trump will win it.

[Politician]

Trump by 4 points.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Trump by 3-5 points.  I expect turnout to be more evenly distributed in 2020 compared to 2018 (big Dem advantage), and Abrams still lost by 2 points.

[Big Abraham]

Trump by 4-5 points. The "Georgia is a tossup" myth is seriously overblown, and Harris is a terrible candidate.

[bagelman]

With Trump not terribly disfavored to win reelection against an overrated Democratic candidate, despite low approval ratings and generally be a raving old lunatic, he should win Georgia. Harris could still beat Trump in the end but it wouldn't be easy for her.

[SN2903]

Trump by 5-6 pts

[Da2017]

Trump by 4-5 points. The "Georgia is a tossup" myth is seriously overblown, and Harris is a terrible candidate.

She is far from flawless. Honestly I don't see an Obama or a Bill Clinton this cycle. I think she be one best fits for the state. At least she does not have Emails or Benghazi.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Trump by 4-5 points. The "Georgia is a tossup" myth is seriously overblown, and Harris is a terrible candidate.

It had a closer Governor’s race than Ohio and has a booming Metro area rapidly trending D and it being a toss-up is a myth? K.

Trump by 3-5 points.  I expect turnout to be more evenly distributed in 2020 compared to 2018 (big Dem advantage), and Abrams still lost by 2 points.

Young voters will make up more of the electorate in 2020. Abrams flipped white voters disgruntled with the GOP in the Metro Atlanta area. Trump is not going to do better than Brian Kemp. He will probably win with a plurality.

[Big Abraham]

Trump by 4-5 points. The "Georgia is a tossup" myth is seriously overblown, and Harris is a terrible candidate.

She is far from flawless. Honestly I don't see an Obama or a Bill Clinton this cycle. I think she be one best fits for the State. At least she does not have Emails or Benghazi.

Sure, she's probably a better candidate than Hillary Clinton, but that's not much of an accomplishment considering Hillary has probably been the worst presidential candidate in recent history

Trump by 4-5 points. The "Georgia is a tossup" myth is seriously overblown, and Harris is a terrible candidate.

It had a closer Governor’s race than Ohio and has a booming Metro area rapidly trending D and it being a toss-up is a myth? K.

Of course Georgia will be closer than Ohio and is trending Democratic; I never doubted that. It's still firmly lean Republican, however. The Republicans won by 5 points in the last House elections and I don't see Georgia getting much bluer than that between now and 2020

[QAnonKelly]

I think Trump wins by about 2 points at most and doesn’t clear 50%

[Rookie Yinzer]

Of course Georgia will be closer than Ohio and is trending Democratic; I never doubted that. It's still firmly lean Republican, however. The Republicans won by 5 points in the last House elections and I don't see Georgia getting much bluer than that between now and 2020

I disagree. One race was completely uncontested, Abrams outran every House D candidate/incumbent except for Bishop, and Trump is not the Generic R that the House candidates are. We'll see in 20 months.

ETA: I see John Lewis' district was uncontested so that cancels out GA-08 but I still stand by what I said. Trump is not Generic R and will do worse in Metro Atlanta now that his presidency is not the hypothetical it was in 2016.

[Big Abraham]

Of course Georgia will be closer than Ohio and is trending Democratic; I never doubted that. It's still firmly lean Republican, however. The Republicans won by 5 points in the last House elections and I don't see Georgia getting much bluer than that between now and 2020

I disagree. One race was completely uncontested, Abrams outran every House D candidate/incumbent except for Bishop, and Trump is not the Generic R that the House candidates are. We'll see in 20 months.

I guess we will.

[DrScholl]

In every statewide race last year, Democrats reached at least 47% (even in the Agriculture Commissioner race). Plus there is the fact that GA-6 flipped and GA-7 almost flipped. The race will be decided based on how much bigger a portion of the overall electorate that the Metro area becomes. The rural areas that Republicans now rely on certainly aren't growing. My guess is that Harris wins it by a couple of points.

[Del Tachi]

Media will characterize the race as very competitive and Harris will campaign there up until election day, but in the end Trump will win by 4-5 points.  Rural Georgia will continue to trend Republican, and while Harris should improve with the urban minority vote she'll lose some of the "Stronger Together" shy Republican vote from the ATL burbs.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Media will characterize the race as very competitive and Harris will campaign there up until election day, but in the end Trump will win by 4-5 points.  Rural Georgia will continue to trend Republican, and while Harris should improve with the urban minority vote she'll lose some of the "Stronger Together" shy Republican vote from the ATL burbs.

Lol no. the Atlanta suburbs were more Democratic in 2018 than they were in 2016. this idea that suburban counties are going to swing or trend towards Trump in 2020 is solely based in fantasy.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Against Kamala: Trump by 5


he win Texas by 9 and Ohio by 10

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isnt winning Ohio by 10

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump isnt winning Ohio by 10

Ohio in 2020 will be like Missouri in 2012

[SCNCmod]

Assuming Abrams is the Senate Nominee... Dems would probably have a better chance of winning Pres & Senate races in Georgia with a White Male Nominee. (Abrams would help the Pres race ... and vice versa with the Senate race).