NC-Civitas/Harper Polling (R): Trump ahead
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  NC-Civitas/Harper Polling (R): Trump ahead
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Author Topic: NC-Civitas/Harper Polling (R): Trump ahead  (Read 1600 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: February 19, 2019, 02:29:09 PM »

The Civitas Poll shows President Trump with marginal to significant leads over former Vice President Joe Biden and Senators Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, and Cory Booker.

https://www.nccivitas.org/polling/trump-leads-nc-four-top-democratic-contenders
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2019, 03:22:02 PM »

Obama's performance in NC is looking less like a change in voting patterns and more like an outright fluke.
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Politician
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« Reply #2 on: February 19, 2019, 03:24:02 PM »

Junk poll!
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President Johnson
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« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2019, 03:27:26 PM »

Too many undecideds. But really a bad poll for Bernard, since he has almost 100% name recognition. To a lesser extent for Harris. However, it's 20 months out, so doesn't mean much if at all.
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #4 on: February 19, 2019, 07:19:29 PM »

Seems like a junk poll with indeed too many undecideds but nevertheless a horrible poll. Clinton never lost a poll by more than 7% in the 2016 election against Trump in NC.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton-5538.html#polls
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #5 on: February 19, 2019, 07:20:00 PM »

This is why I consider North Carolina c***tease state. Clinton learned this the hard way. She invested a ton of time and energy into the state for nothing and possibly at the expense of other states. It's just not worth putting time and energy into at the presidential level. With a little luck it can be swingy at the state level, but that's about all the effort that the Democrats should put into it. It's not needed for an electoral college victory. Early or not, I'm fairly confident that it's lean R.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: February 19, 2019, 07:21:24 PM »

There is some improvement in Trump's poll numbers since the budget shutdown ended. And its reaffirming FL, NC, and AZ leaning towards him. But not the rust belt.
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #7 on: February 19, 2019, 07:23:23 PM »

The idea that Harris will win NC while losing one or more of the three key rust belt states suddenly seem a bit far-fetched. That's not to say she can't win NC but she will most likely already have won MI, WI and PA before that happens. Of course she'll do better in the polls as more & more people will have heard about her. But NC votes to the right of the nation, and if Trump can't win the state, i can't see him winning the presidency honestly (it could happen, but it's very unlikely).
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #8 on: February 19, 2019, 09:42:13 PM »

There is some improvement in Trump's poll numbers since the budget shutdown ended. And its reaffirming FL, NC, and AZ leaning towards him. But not the rust belt.

Add GA to that mix as well.  The four states have rapidly growing populations--and everyone talks about the ethnic populations moving in.  But they are effectively matched in a less public way by a significant conservative white influx.   And just about the first thing they will do when they arrive in their new home is register to vote.
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: February 19, 2019, 09:59:20 PM »

LOL, Harper.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #10 on: February 19, 2019, 10:15:40 PM »

Add GA to that mix as well.  The four states have rapidly growing populations--and everyone talks about the ethnic populations moving in.  But they are effectively matched in a less public way by a significant conservative white influx.   And just about the first thing they will do when they arrive in their new home is register to vote.
No. Republicans in Georgia went +8 to +5 to +1 in the top of the ticket races in the past three cycles. The Republican Party's strangehold on this state is nearly over. Trump probably won't even clear 50 percent here.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #11 on: February 19, 2019, 10:48:15 PM »

Do we seriously believe that North Carolina is going to vote for Trump by double digits?

This is a junk poll.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #12 on: February 19, 2019, 11:07:55 PM »

Add GA to that mix as well.  The four states have rapidly growing populations--and everyone talks about the ethnic populations moving in.  But they are effectively matched in a less public way by a significant conservative white influx.   And just about the first thing they will do when they arrive in their new home is register to vote.
No. Republicans in Georgia went +8 to +5 to +1 in the top of the ticket races in the past three cycles. The Republican Party's strangehold on this state is nearly over. Trump probably won't even clear 50 percent here.


The Democrats will be competitive in Georgia and may start to win some races statewide in the future.  But it will follow the pattern of Florida.  The movement into the Villages and the Panhandle and Southwest FL matches the ethnic influx into the Orlando and Miami/Ft. Lauderdale areas.  Likewise, the moves into metro Atlanta are matched by the conservative white inflow into north Georgia counties (either from out of state or "white flight" out of Atlanta).    And again, voter registration within the diverse population lags the white influx for several election cycles.

It will be tight for next year, but Trump will pull it out in Georgia.
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RFayette
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« Reply #13 on: February 20, 2019, 12:53:06 AM »

The Bernie numbers are awfully surprising.

That being said, North Carolina was the most R leaning of all swing states in 2012 and was pretty GOP in 2016, so not a huge surprise Trump is significantly up with an R pollster here.
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Da2017
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« Reply #14 on: February 20, 2019, 06:48:39 PM »

North Carolina is't quite there yet. Give it a few more election cycles. The trend seems to have stalled.
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Roblox
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« Reply #15 on: February 20, 2019, 06:50:17 PM »

People are actually taking a harper poll seriously?
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Woody
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« Reply #16 on: February 21, 2019, 07:20:46 AM »

Likely R.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #17 on: February 21, 2019, 11:19:37 AM »

Civitas has practically zero credibility.
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