What happend to Jerry Kilgore?

[Moooooo]

Ive been searching around the blogs today and theres no clear explanation why/how Kilgore lost.

Here is an excerpt from one conservative blogger in VA:

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Chad Dotson another VA conservative Blogger:

Dotson atributes Kaines win to the Democratic effort in Northern VA.

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So which is it?  Kilgore wasnt conservative enough?  The Democrats in Northern VA are starting to show their might?  The people of VA elected Warner 2.0 not Tim Kaine?  Other?

[AuH2O]

Kilgore was just a weak campaigner and debater. I don't think it's that complicated.

The fact Bolling and McDonnell won-- the latter without an NRA endorsement-- makes it clear Kilgore wasn't rejected for being a Republican. He was rejected for being Jerry Kilgore.

Frankly, he was notably weaker than Earley-- though Kaine is likewise weaker than Warner.

Internal GOP conflict in VA probably hurt Kilgore, but was not at all a deciding factor.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Kilgore was just a weak campaigner and debater. I don't think it's that complicated.

The fact Bolling and McDonnell won-- the latter without an NRA endorsement-- makes it clear Kilgore wasn't rejected for being a Republican. He was rejected for being Jerry Kilgore.

Frankly, he was notably weaker than Earley-- though Kaine is likewise weaker than Warner.

Internal GOP conflict in VA probably hurt Kilgore, but was not at all a deciding factor.

McDonnel didn't exactly get a mandate. Bolling didn't exactly landslide.

[TheresNoMoney]

Attorney General race is not over!! Deeds is only down by 1,500 votes with more to be counted and there will definitely be a recount either way.

[Moooooo]

Kilgore was just a weak campaigner and debater. I don't think it's that complicated.

The fact Bolling and McDonnell won-- the latter without an NRA endorsement-- makes it clear Kilgore wasn't rejected for being a Republican. He was rejected for being Jerry Kilgore.

Frankly, he was notably weaker than Earley-- though Kaine is likewise weaker than Warner.

Internal GOP conflict in VA probably hurt Kilgore, but was not at all a deciding factor.

So you disagree that he wasnt conservative enough?  I heard a lot of rumbling throughout the campaign regarding Kilgore not responding to a conservative groups survery regarding cutting taxes.

[AuH2O]

Kilgore was just a weak campaigner and debater. I don't think it's that complicated.

The fact Bolling and McDonnell won-- the latter without an NRA endorsement-- makes it clear Kilgore wasn't rejected for being a Republican. He was rejected for being Jerry Kilgore.

Frankly, he was notably weaker than Earley-- though Kaine is likewise weaker than Warner.

Internal GOP conflict in VA probably hurt Kilgore, but was not at all a deciding factor.

McDonnel didn't exactly get a mandate. Bolling didn't exactly landslide.

True, which is why I used the term "won," i.e. a reference to the victor in the race, which for Lt Gov was Bolling, and for AG was McDonnell.

Secondary statewide races often follow the Governor's race; Kaine won because of Warner. In this case, voters clearly separated Kilgore from Bolling/McDonnell, even though the latter two are arguably more conservative.

Look at Virginia Beach, for instance. Kaine won it outright, a surprising feat, but Bolling and McDonnell won easily.

Like I said, the data seems fairly clear to me. I'm not sure WHY someone would vote for Bolling and McDonnell and Kaine, but they did, and in large numbers.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Kilgore was just a weak campaigner and debater. I don't think it's that complicated.

The fact Bolling and McDonnell won-- the latter without an NRA endorsement-- makes it clear Kilgore wasn't rejected for being a Republican. He was rejected for being Jerry Kilgore.

Frankly, he was notably weaker than Earley-- though Kaine is likewise weaker than Warner.

Internal GOP conflict in VA probably hurt Kilgore, but was not at all a deciding factor.

McDonnel didn't exactly get a mandate. Bolling didn't exactly landslide.

True, which is why I used the term "won," i.e. a reference to the victor in the race, which for Lt Gov was Bolling, and for AG was McDonnell.

Secondary statewide races often follow the Governor's race; Kaine won because of Warner. In this case, voters clearly separated Kilgore from Bolling/McDonnell, even though the latter two are arguably more conservative.

Look at Virginia Beach, for instance. Kaine won it outright, a surprising feat, but Bolling and McDonnell won easily.

Like I said, the data seems fairly clear to me. I'm not sure WHY someone would vote for Bolling and McDonnell and Kaine, but they did, and in large numbers.

That's not as weird as all of the Boxer-Bush voters in California.

[AuH2O]

Kilgore was just a weak campaigner and debater. I don't think it's that complicated.

The fact Bolling and McDonnell won-- the latter without an NRA endorsement-- makes it clear Kilgore wasn't rejected for being a Republican. He was rejected for being Jerry Kilgore.

Frankly, he was notably weaker than Earley-- though Kaine is likewise weaker than Warner.

Internal GOP conflict in VA probably hurt Kilgore, but was not at all a deciding factor.

So you disagree that he wasnt conservative enough?  I heard a lot of rumbling throughout the campaign regarding Kilgore not responding to a conservative groups survery regarding cutting taxes.

This could well have been part of the problem. Kilgore was seen as weak on taxes, abortion, and some other key issues. He was all about the death penalty but that was just not a major concern... Democrats take away the death penalty and they'd have 15 delegates and no Governor for 20 years.

I think the proximate cause of Kilgore's defeat was the debates. Virginia is no more "purple" now than it ever has been... going back to 1860 and before Virginia has behaved in a unique fashion, clearly different from the deeper South but also from the more northerly Mid-Atlantic states.

Part of it is that Virginian voters have a technocratic streak. Part is just Kilgore's misfortune that he's from the SW and has an odd voice. A large part is that he didn't sound like he was in control of policy in the debates.

I see no way around this conclusion: many voters-- anywhere from 5-10% of the total-- agreed on policy more with Kilgore, but voted for Kaine.

[CARLHAYDEN]

There is no one simple explanation.

First, Kilgore was a mediocre candidate (I posted this before), so he neither galvanized his base nor attracted others outside his base.

Second, more importantly, in Virginia (as elsewhere across the nation) the left saw this year's election as a chance for revenge for their losing streak from 2002-2004.  They turned out whereas conservatives were lackidaisical.

Third, the media played a major role in supressing stories harmful to Kaine.  A case in point, Carlos H. Bustamente Medieta (an illegal immigrant) brutally mudered Hak Bon Kim (a legal immigrant) in northern Virginia just a few weeks ago.  This story was quickly hushed up.

Fourth, Kaine sucessfully hid behind Warner.  Warner was a very popular moderate Governor, whereas I believe time will tell that Kaine will end up being a very unpopular liberal Governor.

[Galactic Overlord]

Kilgore was noticably weaker in the suburbs.  He got killed in Fairfax, not that he was going to win it anyway, but he did even worse than Earley.  He also lost in the suburban areas in the northwest, the areas around Richmond, and in the southeast.  Kilgore was successful in winning back rural counties that Warner won, but it couldn't make up that suburban deficit.  Kaine either appealed more to suburban voters, or "movement" conservatives in the suburbs weren't satisified with Kilgore and didn't turn out.

This is something Republican candidates need to watch out for.  The successful ones put together a coalition of suburban and rural votes that typically overrule the urban Democratic areas.  In Louisiana, my current congressman, Bobby Jindal, won the suburbs in his 2003 gubernatorial race by large margins, but lost the vast majority of rural areas, and thus lost the race.

[Sam Spade]

I would say all the factors you listed above contributed to the loss.  And perhaps even more factors than that. 

I suggest you read the Michael Barone article I posted in the US General Discussion forum for about the best early analysis I've been able to find.

[danwxman]

There is no one simple explanation.

First, Kilgore was a mediocre candidate (I posted this before), so he neither galvanized his base nor attracted others outside his base.

Second, more importantly, in Virginia (as elsewhere across the nation) the left saw this year's election as a chance for revenge for their losing streak from 2002-2004.  They turned out whereas conservatives were lackidaisical.

Third, the media played a major role in supressing stories harmful to Kaine.  A case in point, Carlos H. Bustamente Medieta (an illegal immigrant) brutally mudered Hak Bon Kim (a legal immigrant) in northern Virginia just a few weeks ago.  This story was quickly hushed up.

Fourth, Kaine sucessfully hid behind Warner.  Warner was a very popular moderate Governor, whereas I believe time will tell that Kaine will end up being a very unpopular liberal Governor.

How do you like eating crow? Face it, you were dead wrong on Kilgore winning (even the percentages you predicted) and you were dead wrong on illegal immigration being any kind of an issue (it wasn't). So now, you blame the media! A classic Republican tactic, and yet you still call yourself a Democrat.

[TheresNoMoney]

It's very nice to see Carl Hayden eating crow. He was particularly obnoxious about this race.

[Blank Slate]

Kilgore was just a weak campaigner and debater. I don't think it's that complicated.

The fact Bolling and McDonnell won-- the latter without an NRA endorsement-- makes it clear Kilgore wasn't rejected for being a Republican. He was rejected for being Jerry Kilgore.

Frankly, he was notably weaker than Earley-- though Kaine is likewise weaker than Warner.

Internal GOP conflict in VA probably hurt Kilgore, but was not at all a deciding factor.

McDonnel didn't exactly get a mandate. Bolling didn't exactly landslide.

True, which is why I used the term "won," i.e. a reference to the victor in the race, which for Lt Gov was Bolling, and for AG was McDonnell.

Secondary statewide races often follow the Governor's race; Kaine won because of Warner. In this case, voters clearly separated Kilgore from Bolling/McDonnell, even though the latter two are arguably more conservative.

Look at Virginia Beach, for instance. Kaine won it outright, a surprising feat, but Bolling and McDonnell won easily.

Like I said, the data seems fairly clear to me. I'm not sure WHY someone would vote for Bolling and McDonnell and Kaine, but they did, and in large numbers.

Uh, again McDonnell has not won yet, for Attorney General.  With two more precincts to count the difference between him and Deeds is 1485 votes.  And there is still the provisional ballots also to be counted. 

And then very possibly is an automatic recount if it is and it looks like it will be a win of less than one percent of the total vote counted.  So this AG race in Virginia is still very much in doubt. 

And then a little may be an asking for another recount by Deeds.     

[CARLHAYDEN]

There is no one simple explanation.

First, Kilgore was a mediocre candidate (I posted this before), so he neither galvanized his base nor attracted others outside his base.

Second, more importantly, in Virginia (as elsewhere across the nation) the left saw this year's election as a chance for revenge for their losing streak from 2002-2004.  They turned out whereas conservatives were lackidaisical.

Third, the media played a major role in supressing stories harmful to Kaine.  A case in point, Carlos H. Bustamente Medieta (an illegal immigrant) brutally mudered Hak Bon Kim (a legal immigrant) in northern Virginia just a few weeks ago.  This story was quickly hushed up.

Fourth, Kaine sucessfully hid behind Warner.  Warner was a very popular moderate Governor, whereas I believe time will tell that Kaine will end up being a very unpopular liberal Governor.

How do you like eating crow? Face it, you were dead wrong on Kilgore winning (even the percentages you predicted) and you were dead wrong on illegal immigration being any kind of an issue (it wasn't). So now, you blame the media! A classic Republican tactic, and yet you still call yourself a Democrat.

Well, just how much coverage of the Hak Bon Kim murder was there?  Please be so good as to post ALL the coverage.

If you check up on the details of the case you will see that in a year when the issue was not in play, it would have been widely covered, but instead got mimimal coverage.

Why?

[danwxman]

There is no one simple explanation.

First, Kilgore was a mediocre candidate (I posted this before), so he neither galvanized his base nor attracted others outside his base.

Second, more importantly, in Virginia (as elsewhere across the nation) the left saw this year's election as a chance for revenge for their losing streak from 2002-2004.  They turned out whereas conservatives were lackidaisical.

Third, the media played a major role in supressing stories harmful to Kaine.  A case in point, Carlos H. Bustamente Medieta (an illegal immigrant) brutally mudered Hak Bon Kim (a legal immigrant) in northern Virginia just a few weeks ago.  This story was quickly hushed up.

Fourth, Kaine sucessfully hid behind Warner.  Warner was a very popular moderate Governor, whereas I believe time will tell that Kaine will end up being a very unpopular liberal Governor.

How do you like eating crow? Face it, you were dead wrong on Kilgore winning (even the percentages you predicted) and you were dead wrong on illegal immigration being any kind of an issue (it wasn't). So now, you blame the media! A classic Republican tactic, and yet you still call yourself a Democrat.

Well, just how much coverage of the Hak Bon Kim murder was there?  Please be so good as to post ALL the coverage.

If you check up on the details of the case you will see that in a year when the issue was not in play, it would have been widely covered, but instead got mimimal coverage.

Why?

The public doesn't care when immigrants kill each other.

Either way, illegal immigration was a non-issue and your prediction was dead wrong. Have a nice day!

[minionofmidas]

This could well have been part of the problem. Kilgore was seen as weak on taxes, abortion, and some other key issues. He was all about the death penalty but that was just not a major concern...

And about immigration IIRC. Not election winning issues, apparently, at least not in Virginia. Good.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Is that to say he sounds like a hillbilly?

IIRC Bolling was helped by having an even more "liberal" opponent than Kilgore had - or maybe that was just spin, I don't know much except what I read here.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Er, so you agree that the story was supressed?

[minionofmidas]

The public doesn't care when immigrants kill each other.

The public doesn't care about murders unless it feels personally threatened, or the victim or one of its mourning relatives is photogenic.

[Ben.]

There is no one simple explanation.

First, Kilgore was a mediocre candidate (I posted this before), so he neither galvanized his base nor attracted others outside his base.

Second, more importantly, in Virginia (as elsewhere across the nation) the left saw this year's election as a chance for revenge for their losing streak from 2002-2004.  They turned out whereas conservatives were lackidaisical.

Third, the media played a major role in supressing stories harmful to Kaine.  A case in point, Carlos H. Bustamente Medieta (an illegal immigrant) brutally mudered Hak Bon Kim (a legal immigrant) in northern Virginia just a few weeks ago.  This story was quickly hushed up.

Fourth, Kaine sucessfully hid behind Warner.  Warner was a very popular moderate Governor, whereas I believe time will tell that Kaine will end up being a very unpopular liberal Governor.

Come on Carl, immigration didn’t play as an issue to nearly the same degree that you thought it would simply because people where not as concerned about it as you thought they where, the media didn’t under report it or over report, they reported it as much as the media in TN, NJ or WY would have done.

As for the turnout of the bases. Currently the GOP is unpopular nationally, Libby, DeLay, Katrina, Frist, Iraq and gas prices, have tarnished the standing of both the administration and the Republican congressional leadership greatly… although at the same time this has not directly helped the democrats its important to note. So rather than being a “desire for revenge” energising democratic turnout (as you rather emotively put it) it’s the simple fact that the GOP is unpopular and that Democrats are much happier to go out and vote at the moment than republicans. It’s also important to note that the GOP is bombing amongst independent voters who ultimately decided the race in Virginia… a “desire for revenge” can hardly be ascribed to them.

Kaine “hid behind Warner” and will be a “unpopular liberal governor”, I’m sorry but as so often with your posts Carl this is nothing more than emotive opinion. What popular outgoing governor is not heavily employed by his party’s new nominee in order to win? As for Kaine being liberal, you’ve argued that Evan Bayh is a liberal, and in general it would seem that for you liberal refers to any democrat who could be considered sceptical towards gun rights or the death penalty… you earlier suggestions that Kaine, a pretty religious catholic (and former missionary), was somehow pretending to be pro-life was another instance of you using an unsubstantiated accusation as ‘fact’… when it was nothing more than at best opinion and at worst a rather nasty slur, consequently playing no part in the election.           

[WalterMitty]

ilol second what most everyone else has said--kilgore was a weak candidate, but then again so was kaine.

i think kilgore was too 'southern' and much too socially conservative for nova.  it wasnt even close in the dc 'burbs.  making up that big of a deficit proved to be like pushing a big rock up a very steep hill.

[RJ]

There is no one simple explanation.

First, Kilgore was a mediocre candidate (I posted this before), so he neither galvanized his base nor attracted others outside his base.

I'll agree with this. From what a saw/read, Kaine out campaigned Kilgore and generally held better bearing and charisma/likability throughout the two's public appearances and debates.

Second, more importantly, in Virginia (as elsewhere across the nation) the left saw this year's election as a chance for revenge for their losing streak from 2002-2004.  They turned out whereas conservatives were lackidaisical.

Fourth, Kaine sucessfully hid behind Warner.  Warner was a very popular moderate Governor, whereas I believe time will tell that Kaine will end up being a very unpopular liberal Governor.

The left see every election as a "chance for revenge" the same way Republicans see the same ones as a chance to bury the left. I'm not so convinced that this was a factor at all. Kaine may also have "hid behind Warner" as you suggest, but when current status quo is generally accepted and actually desirable, you'd have to be an idiot to promise change or simply not follow in the footsteps of your predeccessor. Look at what happened to Gore 2000. Kaine had Warner on his side, but I suppose(and Virginians could answer this better than me) it would be prudent to ask if Allen had any influence on this election and why/why not.

Third, the media played a major role in supressing stories harmful to Kaine.  A case in point, Carlos H. Bustamente Medieta (an illegal immigrant) brutally mudered Hak Bon Kim (a legal immigrant) in northern Virginia just a few weeks ago.  This story was quickly hushed up.

The old biased media strikes again. You can't honestly believe supressing that story made a difference in this campaign or was some kind of consperiacy one way or the other. I suppose you'll tell me the Whitewater investigation findings and results or the impeachment hearings coverage in 1998 had no bearing on the election of 2000. If the media is biased as you habitually claim, they never would have covered it as they did.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Third, the media played a major role in supressing stories harmful to Kaine.  A case in point, Carlos H. Bustamente Medieta (an illegal immigrant) brutally mudered Hak Bon Kim (a legal immigrant) in northern Virginia just a few weeks ago.

And this is Kaine's fault how?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Third, the media played a major role in supressing stories harmful to Kaine.  A case in point, Carlos H. Bustamente Medieta (an illegal immigrant) brutally mudered Hak Bon Kim (a legal immigrant) in northern Virginia just a few weeks ago.

And this is Kaine's fault how?

Er, Bandit, you really should learn how to read.

I did NOT blame Kaine for the liberal media's supression of news on illegal aliens in Virginia during the last few weeks of the campaign.

However, I do state that the liberal media deliberately chose to stop carrying information about illegal aliens in Virgina during the last few weeks of the campaign because they were well aware that it was an explosive issue which would harm Kaine's chances.

Just look at the reports during the summer of this year about illegal alien activity in Virginia (particularly criminal activity) and note how it disappeared from the media in the few weeks immediately prior to the election.

Did illegal aliens suddenly depart Virginia during that time period?  I don't think so.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I did NOT blame Kaine for the liberal media's supression of news on illegal aliens in Virginia during the last few weeks of the campaign.

I know. You seemed to blame him for the actual killing, not the media's supposed cover-up of it.