Selzer Poll Joni Ernst Approval is 57%

[lfromnj]

57% approval in a sample Trump is underwater by 4%.

Pinging @MTtreasurer.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah, Ernst is favored, but if President Sherrod Brown has some coattails, she could still very well lose.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Yeah, Ernst is favored, but if President Sherrod Brown has some coattails, she could still very well lose.

Sherrod Brown is unlikely to win the Democratic nomination, let alone the presidency.

[Xing]

Link?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst will win

[MT Treasurer]

B-b-b-but clearly retail politicking doesn’t matter and this will be a top tier Tossup race no matter what! I’ve said it before and I’m going to say it again: There’s no way this seat is more likely to flip than NC, GA, TX, or MT (and probably even KS).

[MT Treasurer]

Link?

It’s real. Sorry, xing.

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www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2019/02/21/iowa-poll-joni-ernst-vilsack-scholten-greenfield-approval-ratings-high-2020-re-election-campaign/2908285002/

[Xing]

Link?

It’s real. Sorry, xing.

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www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2019/02/21/iowa-poll-joni-ernst-vilsack-scholten-greenfield-approval-ratings-high-2020-re-election-campaign/2908285002/

That’s a strange jump for a couple of months. If she’s at 57% approval on Election Day, she’ll win, but that’s yet to be seen. You said similar things about “retail politics” before, and we saw how that worked out (I get it, this is a different state and all that.) If Ernst wins by a lot, it’s because of the political lean of Iowa, not because she’s some amazing candidate.

[UncleSam]

Iowa is a tough state for Dems to win at this point - it’s still worth investing in because it is cheap and an improved performance statewide could save a congressman or two, but I doubt Iowa will be seriously contested at the presidential or senate levels when all is said and done.

[Skye]

Link?

It’s real. Sorry, xing.

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www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2019/02/21/iowa-poll-joni-ernst-vilsack-scholten-greenfield-approval-ratings-high-2020-re-election-campaign/2908285002/

That’s a strange jump for a couple of months. If she’s at 57% approval on Election Day, she’ll win, but that’s yet to be seen. You said similar things about “retail politics” before, and we saw how that worked out (I get it, this is a different state and all that.) If Ernst wins by a lot, it’s because of the political lean of Iowa, not because she’s some amazing candidate.

If she overperforms Trump by a lot, it's definitely because she's a great candidate.

For now, no reason to believe she's not favored.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX, AZ and CO are trending more friendly than ME, IA and AL. Which still makes the Senate winnable for Dems

[PAK Man]

This is why Democrats need to stop her now before she gets entrenched. It may seem contradictory to what the poll is saying, but I do believe she's vulnerable, and it'd be stupid to not go after her. Democrats just had a decent year in Iowa in 2018 - picking up two congressional seats and winning a statewide office (state auditor) that they haven't won since Lorne Worthington served less than a term more than 50 years ago. They also came extremely close to knocking off Kim Reynolds and Steve King. Honestly, that's the best year Democrats have had in Iowa since 2012.

[Brittain33]

Democrats definitely need to contest this seat actively because they're unlikely to get a better shot than 2020; it's scary to think about 2026 being a Republican midterm because of the implications. That said, I think it's even more important that Dems nominate a presidential nominee who can win big.

[SnowLabrador]

I think Ernst will win by double digits. She's a strong retail politician, and her history as an abuse survivor will definitely endear her to some left-leaning voters, regardless of her far-right policy positions.

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/ZacMcCrary/status/1098586190767362050

[Zaybay]

Very interesting how Ernst is able to outrun Trump approval like that. She is definitely favored at this moment. A high approval now, however, doesnt mean a high approval in a year and a half. Otherwise, senators Keitkamp and Donelly, who had amazing approvals to start off with, would still be sitting senators.

[MT Treasurer]

That’s a strange jump for a couple of months. If she’s at 57% approval on Election Day, she’ll win, but that’s yet to be seen. You said similar things about “retail politics” before, and we saw how that worked out (I get it, this is a different state and all that.) If Ernst wins by a lot, it’s because of the political lean of Iowa, not because she’s some amazing candidate.

1) Sure, Heitkamp lost, but Heitkamp also ran a godawful campaign and still did 26 points better than Clinton despite "polarization." It would be foolish to say that retail campaigning doesn’t matter at all, especially since Cramer was the strongest retail politician in that state.
 
2) If she really does end up outperforming Trump by as much as this poll suggests, it’s certainly not because of Iowa's political lean (Trump's approval is -4 in this poll). Just because she’s not a moderate doesn’t mean people don’t like her "folksy farmer/veteran" shtick. Ask Senator Rosendale how easy it is to beat someone who is "way to the left/right of their state" but perceived by voters to be "authentic" or "one of them." Most swing voters don’t really base their vote on a Senator's entire voting record.

[RINO Tom]

Iowa tends to approve of its Senators.

[junior chįmp]

Was this poll taken before or after Trump's tariffs that were supposed to cost Cramer a Senate seat since we all know all rural folk work on farms and meet at the town square once a week to discuss politics

Either way...Ernst is as dumb and phony as the voters of Iowa so shes a shoe in for re-election

[IceSpear]

Was this poll taken before or after Trump's tariffs that were supposed to cost Cramer a Senate seat since we all know all rural folk work on farms and meet at the town square once a week to discuss politics

Either way...Ernst is as dumb and phony as the voters of Iowa so shes a shoe in for re-election

It was after muh tariffs but before muh Akin comments.

[junior chįmp]

Was this poll taken before or after Trump's tariffs that were supposed to cost Cramer a Senate seat since we all know all rural folk work on farms and meet at the town square once a week to discuss politics

Either way...Ernst is as dumb and phony as the voters of Iowa so shes a shoe in for re-election

It was after muh tariffs but before muh Akin comments.

no no...that was in the middle of the GOP's health care repeal closing down rural hospitals scandal which cost Cleetus his county mourge seat in Dillweed county Iowa. The county never forgot that and of course came to the rational conclusion that the same party as Ernst belonged to cost them their health care. This activated synapses in their brain telling them to vote for her Dem opponent. Ernst better bring those wonder bread bags for shoes out if he wants to win back these voters who sit around all day and follow politics