Virginia state delegate Gordon Helsel (R) retiring

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1099306595908022272

Represents a redrawn seat, his seat ended up being a seat Hillary got 53% in thanks to that.

Va state house tilt r because blackface scandal imo tbh

[ON Progressive]

Speaking of which, is there a source that has the Prez numbers, Senate l, and gubernatorial numbers for the redrawn districts? I was looking for it on VPAP the other day and couldn’t find anything

It does exist on VPAP, though I’d need to get on my PC which I won’t be able to for another two hours to find it.

Edit: https://www.vpap.org/general-assembly/redistricting-2018/plan-2019-court-plan/

[Duke of York]

Damn, it looks like an insta D-gain of 3 seats (Helsel, Jones and Yancey) while Dems probably have greater than even odds of knocking off Cox and Stolle as well, though I’m sure both will have tons of outside resources and Stolle in particular has historically run well above his district’s partisan lean, even in 2017. Knight and Ingram are probably in tossup races.

On the Democratic side, SVV and Turpin should be able to survive in a neutral environment with a few added blue points, but Mullin will have to work hard to defend his new swing seat

I think there ought to be a Virginia mega thread but on the topic I dont think the scandals will have much of a effect in November and Democrats are probably favored to gain both chambers of the legislature with some breathing room.

[henster]

How is the House tilt R, I'd say likely D at this point. Dems have way more paths than the GOP at this point.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1099366595489615873

Former Minority Leader is retiring too.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1099366595489615873

Former Minority Leader is retiring too.

safe Democratic seat. It contains Charlottesville. I wonder if any Republican will even bother filing

[ON Progressive]

How is the House tilt R, I'd say likely D at this point. Dems have way more paths than the GOP at this point.

I'm joking. I think it's Safe D personally, Likely D at the very worst.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Found this bit interesting:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Good for him, wonder how he would have voted on an expansion vote if it was held in 2015 instead of 2018.

Also wow at the prospect of a battleground seat that includes Poquoson, one of the most R-friendly places in the state, being lumped in with part of Hampton and becoming a battleground seat.

[LoneStarDem]

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1099306595908022272

Represents a redrawn seat, his seat ended up being a seat Hillary got 53% in thanks to that.

Va state house tilt r because blackface scandal imo tbh

I'm interested to know if the VA Dems will flip one or both chambers of the VA General Assembly due to the narrow majorities the VA GOP currently hold in both VA House of Delegates & VA State Senate.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1099306595908022272

Represents a redrawn seat, his seat ended up being a seat Hillary got 53% in thanks to that.

Va state house tilt r because blackface scandal imo tbh

I'm interested to know if the VA Dems will flip one or both chambers of the VA General Assembly due to the narrow majorities the VA GOP currently hold in both VA House of Delegates & VA State Senate.

the VA Senate is basically a D gerrymander lol

There are 2 GOP +20 Clinton districts and the closest D held seat is like Clinton +10.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1099306595908022272

Represents a redrawn seat, his seat ended up being a seat Hillary got 53% in thanks to that.

Va state house tilt r because blackface scandal imo tbh

I'm interested to know if the VA Dems will flip one or both chambers of the VA General Assembly due to the narrow majorities the VA GOP currently hold in both VA House of Delegates & VA State Senate.

VA hasn't had a Senate election since 2015. None of those Republicans have faced an election in the Trump era. The Senate is a goner for Republicans.

Even with Dems in Disarray™ there isn't any real good evidence that they're going to face any serious losses in the House. Remember that Ds lost control of the House last year by a single vote in a single election, and we've already had a few popular R incumbents retiring.

[Sestak]

Both chambers at least lean towards the Dems at this point.

[Gass3268]

We should turn this into a VA 2019 Megathread. Another Republican State Senator retiring in a Toss Up seat.


https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1103673185189486593

[Nyvin]

We should turn this into a VA 2019 Megathread. Another Republican State Senator retiring in a Toss Up seat.


https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1103673185189486593

Republicans will need a miracle to hold either chamber at this point.

[LoneStarDem]

We should turn this into a VA 2019 Megathread. Another Republican State Senator retiring in a Toss Up seat.


https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1103673185189486593

Republicans will need a miracle to hold either chamber at this point.

They do. Plus it won't be bad to start a 2021 VA Statewide Thread too.

[Duke of York]

We should turn this into a VA 2019 Megathread. Another Republican State Senator retiring in a Toss Up seat.


https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1103673185189486593

Republicans will need a miracle to hold either chamber at this point.

I agree with this. Its very unlikely they hold either chamber. They likely lose both by substantial margin

[Lachi]

You are delusional if you think the blackface thing will hurt the VA HoD Dems, when they were the ones who called for him to resign.

[Woody]

You are delusional if you think the blackface thing will hurt the VA HoD Dems, when they were the ones who called for him to resign.

It's pretty big deal with my folks. Bigotry should not be tolerated