Emerson-NH: Shaheen and Sununu tied

[Skye]

fwiw

inb4 indyrep.

http://emersonpolling.com/2019/02/23/bernie-takes-early-lead-in-new-hampshire-democratic-primary-potential-tight-us-senate-race-if-gov-sununu-takes-on-sen-shaheen/

[MT Treasurer]

I do believe Sununu would move this from Likely to Lean D, but I doubt he can win unless Trump is carrying the state at the same time. That said, I’ve underestimated him twice now, so who knows.

[MT Treasurer]

But everyone (Atlas and the experts) told me that Alabama was the only Democratic seat that was vulnerable in 2020.

Really? The general consensus seems to be that AL and NH are the only two vulnerable Democratic seats (with Jones being DOA regardless of who Republicans run and Shaheen's race a Toss-up if Sununu jumps in).

[Roll Roons]

But everyone (Atlas and the experts) told me that Alabama was the only Democratic seat that was vulnerable in 2020.

Really? The general consensus seems to be that AL and NH are the only two vulnerable Democratic seats (with Jones being DOA regardless of who Republicans run and Shaheen's race a Toss-up if Sununu jumps in).

Michigan is also a possibility, especially if Trump wins it again.

[UWS]

That's the reason why Sununu should definitively run.

[2016]

That's the reason why Sununu should definitively run.

Sununu should run because Republicans have to play some offense besides Alabama somewhere.

Colorado & Arizona look very bad despite Romanoff in CO not being a A-Lister. McSally would lose to Kelly I think if the Election would have been held today.

[2016]

But everyone (Atlas and the experts) told me that Alabama was the only Democratic seat that was vulnerable in 2020.

Worth noting that Bernie leads Trump by 10 in this sample. Which makes it all the more impressive that Sununu is tied with Shaheen.

Sununu walked away from Trump during the Wave kind like Environment Democrats had 2018.
I doubt that he can get away with that in 2020. Ayotte tried that in 2016 but lost.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I mean MI will be very tightly contested if James runs again.

[Woody]

Sununu in NH, James in MI, Pawlenty in MN, Baker in MA, and Freitas in VA = dems gets wiped off the board.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Sununu in NH, James in MI, Pawlenty in MN, Baker in MA, and Freitas in VA = dems gets wiped off the board.

1) Sununu said today that he will definitely NOT run for Senate, so you can forget about that.

2) Yeah, James could make Michigan competitive against Peters, but he would still be the underdog

3) Smith is safe no matter who the Minnesota GOP nominates. Pawlenty is a retread loser and he won't win a primary anyway.

4) lol. just lol.

5) see #4

[Xing]

Sununu is the Republicans' best hope for this seat, but Shaheen would probably still be favored.

[MT Treasurer]

Sununu in NH, James in MI, Pawlenty in MN, Baker in MA, and Freitas in VA = dems gets wiped off the board.

The Absurd and Ignorant thread is that —> way

I’ll grant you the first two though. Sununu makes NH a tossup and James makes MI Leans D. I think James is still a bit overrated by forum Republicans though. He was the first Republican to lose Kent County in a federal race since Levin’s landslide re-election

Yeah, he lost a Trump +3 county that trended Democratic in 2016 of all years by less than 1%. Clearly any other Republican would have won that county in a Democratic wave year.

If anything, Peters is the one who’s overrated, not James.

[Zaybay]

Finally, Emerson uses undecideds.

Anyway, very surprising result, but one that makes sense in context, this is the Ds second most vulnerable seat. Its really up to Sununu, however, to jump in and make this a real race.

[RI]

Sununu in NH, James in MI, Pawlenty in MN, Baker in MA, and Freitas in VA = dems gets wiped off the board.

Pawlenty = Bredesen

Freitas = lol

[Roll Roons]

Sununu in NH, James in MI, Pawlenty in MN, Baker in MA, and Freitas in VA = dems gets wiped off the board.

Pawlenty = Bredesen

Freitas = lol

Pawlenty would be much weaker than Bredesen. He was never particularly popular as governor, became a bank lobbyist after leaving office (just like Evan Bayh), tried to make a comeback in the 2018 governor's race and couldn't even win the primary against a guy who'd already lost in 2014. He'd get crushed.

As for Baker, it's just not gonna happen. He's great and I'd love to see him on the national stage, but he will absolutely not defeat an incumbent in MASSACHUSETTS with Trump, who is radioactive in the state, on the ballot. Bill Weld was just as popular as Baker in the 90s, but he ran for Senate against Kerry in 1996, only to lose by 7 points despite being the sitting governor. It would be an exact repeat of that, but I suspect Baker would lose by more.

[Brittain33]

Sununu in NH, James in MI, Pawlenty in MN, Baker in MA, and Freitas in VA = dems gets wiped off the board.

Pawlenty = Bredesen

Freitas = lol

Pawlenty would be much weaker than Bredesen. He was never particularly popular as governor, became a bank lobbyist after leaving office (just like Evan Bayh), tried to make a comeback in the 2018 governor's race and couldn't even win the primary against a guy who'd already lost in 2014. He'd get crushed.

As for Baker, it's just not gonna happen. He's great and I'd love to see him on the national stage, but he will absolutely not defeat an incumbent in MASSACHUSETTS with Trump, who is radioactive in the state, on the ballot. Bill Weld was just as popular as Baker in the 90s, but he ran for Senate against Kerry in 1996, only to lose by 7 points despite being the sitting governor. It would be an exact repeat of that, but I suspect Baker would lose by more.

I feel I’ve told Woodbury three times Baker will never run for Senate, and loses if he tries, but he keeps forgetting.

[Ebsy]

Is he running for Senate? If not, who care

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I know he's a retread, but what about John Sununu, his brother who lost to Shaheen in 2008?

[RINO Tom]

I do believe Sununu would move this from Likely to Lean D, but I doubt he can win unless Trump is carrying the state at the same time. That said, I’ve underestimated him twice now, so who knows.

I give you a lot of shlt, but I agree.  It’s refreshing to see you sound even semi-reasonable about this random ass state you shouldn’t care about, haha.

[S019]

I know he's a retread, but what about John Sununu, his brother who lost to Shaheen in 2008?

He's a lobbyist now and would get Bayh'd in the general or Pawlenty'd in the primary

Safe D with John Sununu

Lean D with Generic R

Tossup with Kelly Ayotte

Tilt R with Chris Sununu

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is losing the state, this race wont get competetive.

[smoltchanov]

Without Trump substantially more pragmatic Sununu could win, with him - i doubt.

[Pollster]

Glad to see that they are allowing undecided voters here.

Sununu could make this competitive, but needs Trump to be highly competitive here to win.

[SnowLabrador]

The problem with the argument that being tied to McConnell would hurt Sununu is that Democrats tried aggressively to tie Rick Scott to McConnell. It didn't work and Nelson lost.

I personally think Sununu will run and win by a recount margin.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Pawlenty already said he's not going to run for office ever again after he lost his primary. And he wouldn't win the general and probably not even the primary anyway.