Virginia passes redistricting commision

[lfromnj]

VA GOP isn't that stupid. A fair map would probably be 6-1-4.


https://twitter.com/1VA2021/status/1099438495746215936

[Bidenworth2020]

This is a good thing. Gerrymandering is a crime against democracy anywhere.

[Politician]

This is a good thing. Gerrymandering is a crime against democracy anywhere.

[lfromnj]

I don't think Northam will veto it but the good news for D hacks on this forum is that amendments in VA have to pass both this year and in the next session so Dems can just ignore it next session(next year after elections) where D's almost certainly have won a trifecta.

[Nyvin]

So for the congressional map, there will be 5 safe D seats and 4 safe GOP seats in pretty much any map.   I'm thinking 3 in NoVA, one in Richmond/South VA, and one in tidewater for D's, then the three rural western districts and one district in the northeast for R's.   

What happens in the rest of tidewater and Charlottesville is what matters for the last two.   Would a commission draw a Charlottesville to Richmond district and make VA-2 competitive?  Maybe if Luria and Spanberger win reelection that would help the Dems.

[IceSpear]

Apparently Virginia Dems like to handcuff themselves when they get power. Good luck winning the House next decade when Republicans gerrymander TX, GA, OH and NC while Democrats decide to restrain themselves. Idiots

Not that I disagree with your point, but the maps for the 2020s are going to by default be far more favorable to the Democrats than the maps for the 2010s were, and Dems still won the House with room to spare even under those. Yeah it took a wave, but still.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Apparently Virginia Dems like to handcuff themselves when they get power. Good luck winning the House next decade when Republicans gerrymander TX, GA, OH and NC while Democrats decide to restrain themselves. Idiots

TX, GA and NC is going to see massive Democratic gains in the state legislature over the next few years. There is also little room to gain via gerrymandering those states.

[politicallefty]

This is a good thing. Gerrymandering is a crime against democracy anywhere.

I agree with this.

Apparently Virginia Dems like to handcuff themselves when they get power. Good luck winning the House next decade when Republicans gerrymander TX, GA, OH and NC while Democrats decide to restrain themselves. Idiots

TX, GA and NC is going to see massive Democratic gains in the state legislature over the next few years. There is also little room to gain via gerrymandering those states.

North Carolina isn't even a sure thing for Republicans. It seems quite likely that the state courts are going to go where Pennsylvania did last year or at least pretty close. As for Texas, I think Democrats should make a serious effort for the TX House next year. Democrats made huge gains last year and appear to be within striking distance. Even if they can't get the majority back just yet, a close enough margin could extract serious concessions for the post-2020 maps.

I'd imagine GA would likely be a status quo map. Republicans will likely shore up GA-07 by ceding GA-06.

The biggest problem for Democrats by far is Ohio. I think that is without question the strongest Republican gerrymander this decade. It remains to be seen how the so-called reform will go to restore at least a reasonably fair balance.

[Gass3268]

This is a good thing. Gerrymandering is a crime against democracy anywhere.

I agree with this.

Apparently Virginia Dems like to handcuff themselves when they get power. Good luck winning the House next decade when Republicans gerrymander TX, GA, OH and NC while Democrats decide to restrain themselves. Idiots

TX, GA and NC is going to see massive Democratic gains in the state legislature over the next few years. There is also little room to gain via gerrymandering those states.

North Carolina isn't even a sure thing for Republicans. It seems quite likely that the state courts are going to go where Pennsylvania did last year or at least pretty close. As for Texas, I think Democrats should make a serious effort for the TX House next year. Democrats made huge gains last year and appear to be within striking distance. Even if they can't get the majority back just yet, a close enough margin could extract serious concessions for the post-2020 maps.

I'd imagine GA would likely be a status quo map. Republicans will likely shore up GA-07 by ceding GA-06.

The biggest problem for Democrats by far is Ohio. I think that is without question the strongest Republican gerrymander this decade. It remains to be seen how the so-called reform will go to restore at least a reasonably fair balance.

The Texas Constitution also has really strict rules when it comes to redistricting the state House which make it difficult to gerrymander.

[Virginiá]

Not entirely convinced Democrats will approve this when they take over. Also, an easy way to punt reform to 2031 would be for Democrats to win the legislature and then say they want to change the commission, and basically restart the amendment approval process, meaning the soonest it could be on the ballot is Nov 2021, which is too late for legislative districts. They could also just put in the amendment a provision saying it doesn't take effect until next cycle, but that's a bit explicit.

[Zaybay]

Looks like the GOP understand whats going to happen after they lose the chamber. Hopefully, when the Ds take power, they can punt this commission for the 2030s.

[Oryxslayer]

This needs to also be approved next cycle by a different legislature, likely one that at least has a dem state senate, likely a dem house. Dems are already on record saying that want to change the wording of this commissions mandate, which when you read between the lines means that they want to restart the process in 2019, and not have a commission in 2020. So for all those hungry for dem power grabs - its still happening if the trifecta gets elected. Not sure if I approve but okay.

[henster]

The Republican Supreme Court drawing the maps if the commission fails seems like a poison pill, Dems should pass a different plan next year. Since the way constitutional amendments are passed it wouldn't be on the ballot until at least 2022.

[windjammer]

The Republican Supreme Court drawing the maps if the commission fails seems like a poison pill, Dems should pass a different plan next year. Since the way constitutional amendments are passed it wouldn't be on the ballot until at least 2022.

^^^^

The VA Supreme Court is full of republicans.

[Skill and Chance]

The Republican Supreme Court drawing the maps if the commission fails seems like a poison pill, Dems should pass a different plan next year. Since the way constitutional amendments are passed it wouldn't be on the ballot until at least 2022.

The VA Supreme Court will quickly flip to whichever party controls both houses of the state legislature.  State judicial appointments and retention at the end of a term are by majority vote of both houses of the state legislature.  4 of the 7 seats are up between 2020 and 2024. 

[Skill and Chance]

This is a good thing. Gerrymandering is a crime against democracy anywhere.

I agree with this.

Apparently Virginia Dems like to handcuff themselves when they get power. Good luck winning the House next decade when Republicans gerrymander TX, GA, OH and NC while Democrats decide to restrain themselves. Idiots

TX, GA and NC is going to see massive Democratic gains in the state legislature over the next few years. There is also little room to gain via gerrymandering those states.

North Carolina isn't even a sure thing for Republicans. It seems quite likely that the state courts are going to go where Pennsylvania did last year or at least pretty close. As for Texas, I think Democrats should make a serious effort for the TX House next year. Democrats made huge gains last year and appear to be within striking distance. Even if they can't get the majority back just yet, a close enough margin could extract serious concessions for the post-2020 maps.

I'd imagine GA would likely be a status quo map. Republicans will likely shore up GA-07 by ceding GA-06.

The biggest problem for Democrats by far is Ohio. I think that is without question the strongest Republican gerrymander this decade. It remains to be seen how the so-called reform will go to restore at least a reasonably fair balance.

The Texas Constitution also has really strict rules when it comes to redistricting the state House which make it difficult to gerrymander.

Is it a no unnecessary county splits rule like KY? 

I think TX House and even GA House are in reach for Democrats in a scenario where Trump loses reelection.  The redistricting stakes are high enough that there should be substantial investment, particularly in Texas.  Beto won a majority of the TX State House districts.  The chamber could flip even in a narrow Trump reelection if his statewide margin declines further.

[lfromnj]

This is a good thing. Gerrymandering is a crime against democracy anywhere.

I agree with this.

Apparently Virginia Dems like to handcuff themselves when they get power. Good luck winning the House next decade when Republicans gerrymander TX, GA, OH and NC while Democrats decide to restrain themselves. Idiots

TX, GA and NC is going to see massive Democratic gains in the state legislature over the next few years. There is also little room to gain via gerrymandering those states.

North Carolina isn't even a sure thing for Republicans. It seems quite likely that the state courts are going to go where Pennsylvania did last year or at least pretty close. As for Texas, I think Democrats should make a serious effort for the TX House next year. Democrats made huge gains last year and appear to be within striking distance. Even if they can't get the majority back just yet, a close enough margin could extract serious concessions for the post-2020 maps.

I'd imagine GA would likely be a status quo map. Republicans will likely shore up GA-07 by ceding GA-06.

The biggest problem for Democrats by far is Ohio. I think that is without question the strongest Republican gerrymander this decade. It remains to be seen how the so-called reform will go to restore at least a reasonably fair balance.

The Texas Constitution also has really strict rules when it comes to redistricting the state House which make it difficult to gerrymander.

Is it a no unnecessary county splits rule like KY? 

I think TX House and even GA House are in reach for Democrats in a scenario where Trump loses reelection.  The redistricting stakes are high enough that there should be substantial investment, particularly in Texas.

afaik a county can basically only be split once and even then it has to be filled up. Say a district is 200k people each and Dallas county has 2.1 million people and Tarrant has 1.5 million
That means Dallas gets 10 state house districts and Tarrant gets 7 and there is a combined district between both of them for a total of 18.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How is the VA Supreme Court Republican when the state has had only one Republican Governor in almost two decades?

[Skill and Chance]

How is the VA Supreme Court Republican when the state has had only one Republican Governor in almost two decades?

Just posted about this.  The Governor has no say (other than <1 yr long recess appointments) in the VA judicial system.  Both chambers of the legislature elect VA state judges.

Through control of the State Senate, Democrats would have had a say in electing 3 of the 7 current Justices, but Republicans controlled the process for the other 4.  Democrats have not controlled both chambers since 1995.  The recent controversial decision preventing Governor McAuliffe from restoring voting rights to convicted felons en masse was 4/3.  1 of the 3 justices Democrats had a say in picking will be replaced by a close relative of a sitting GOP state legislator this summer, so the ideological balance has likely shifted to 5/2 going forward, but one of the judges elected under full Republican control is up for reelection next January, so it will quickly go back to 4R/3 if Democrats succeed in taking the legislature this fall.  If all current justices serve out their entire terms, the first opportunity to "flip" the court ideologically would come in 2024.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Will redistricting commissions and anti gerrymandering amendments force the state legislatures to draw fair maps? Only having fair maps at the house level is still a handicap for Democrats. I am sure those GOP hacks in MI and WI will be more than willing to draw fair state legislative maps.

[lfromnj]

Will redistricting commissions and anti gerrymandering amendments force the state legislatures to draw fair maps? Only having fair maps at the house level is still a handicap for Democrats. I am sure those GOP hacks in MI and WI will be more than willing to draw fair state legislative maps.

why tf would a court draw a blatant gerrymander even if it is GOP controlled? You might get something like NJ where it is GOP tilted but is still winnable in a wave.

[QAnonKelly]

Apparently Virginia Dems like to handcuff themselves when they get power. Good luck winning the House next decade when Republicans gerrymander TX, GA, OH and NC while Democrats decide to restrain themselves. Idiots

TX, GA and NC is going to see massive Democratic gains in the state legislature over the next few years. There is also little room to gain via gerrymandering those states.

You'd also run the risk of it backfiring by the end of the decade. The state house gerry already busted in Dallas Country in November. Idk about NC but GA and TX will both likely have D governors heading into 2030 too. Kemp and Abbott might even be smart to just pass independent commissions to have a short term loss for a longer-term gain. 

[Bidenworth2020]

The Republican Supreme Court drawing the maps if the commission fails seems like a poison pill, Dems should pass a different plan next year. Since the way constitutional amendments are passed it wouldn't be on the ballot until at least 2022.

^^^^

The VA Supreme Court is full of republicans.

Well we can only hope VA Democrats aren’t retarded enough to allow this to go into effect when they gain the trifecta then

dude, this gerrymandering is obviously bullcrap and I know you're smart enough to know that. Stop the partisan sh**t and celebrate the victory for democracy,

[LoneStarDem]

Who does this benefit in the long-term ?

A.) VA Dems

B.) VA GOP

[Bidenworth2020]

The Republican Supreme Court drawing the maps if the commission fails seems like a poison pill, Dems should pass a different plan next year. Since the way constitutional amendments are passed it wouldn't be on the ballot until at least 2022.

^^^^

The VA Supreme Court is full of republicans.

Well we can only hope VA Democrats aren’t retarded enough to allow this to go into effect when they gain the trifecta then

dude, this gerrymandering is obviously bullcrap and I know you're smart enough to know that. Stop the partisan sh**t and celebrate the victory for democracy,

Yeah no. I’m not one of those pearl-clutching holier than thou types that cares about virtue signaling like this

I understand that it helps Democrats if these maps favor them, but gerrymandering isn't just bad because of Republicans' prolific doing of it. Gerrymandering disenfranchises voters, makes less competitive elections, and overall encourages less voter participation. All of these are things Democrats should believe in. This isn't about being better than Republicans, this is about doing something that encourages an active democracy.